2003Contenders

Many reasons... 1. Even with Spiller and Fred on board, the Bills would hate to pass on a true blue chip stud RB if he fell to them. They owe it to themselves to see if this guy is merely a decent back (a la M Lynch) or the next Jim Brown. That is the due diligence part of the equation. 2. When the Bills talk to him, they can press him to gauge what interest other teams have shown in him. That helps them analyze their draft board and interpret where players may go in the draft. Also, perhaps they can get more intel about these other teams (in terms of strategy) gleaned from information that they may have shared with Richardson in interviews. Moreover, by doing a detailed analysis of the player, they have the opportunity to scout up close a player who could wind up playing for a division foe. 3. Smokescreens indeed. If the Bills convince the other 31 teams that they are interested in Richardson, that means that another team that really wants him will need to draft him within the first 9 picks, increasing the possibility that another player that the Bills may truly be interested in may slide. 4. On a related note, it opens trade possibilities for teams interested in Richardson. That means that such a team will either need to trade up with the Bills or one of the top 9 teams. In the former case, moving down a bit and adding extra picks is always a good thing. In the latter case see 3 above.

So much misinformation and conflicting views out there about Reiff. What I will say is that over the last couple of years, the Bills have done a pretty job finding decent linemen. I trust the Bills talent evaluators to make a good decision about whether or not to draft (or whomever) when the pick comes in at 10. I don't see Buddy reaching.

All teams (including the Bills) do a thorough amount of homework on each of these players. If they suspect that the kid has learning disabilities, they will investigate. There could be any number of reasons why he recorded such a poor score (if this report is true). Remember when JP left because he had to pee? Fitz recorded a nearly perfect score on his test (I think it was 49 out of 50), while both Jim Kelly and Dan Marino, I believe, scored under 20. Who would you rather have quarterbacking your team?

I wonder if the leak wasn't by a team in the bottom half of the the top 10-12 hoping to make him fall to them.

Not denying that he appears to be a special athlete. So why wasn't he more of a difference-maker at the college level? I don't think Nix will over-draft these workout warriors.

I think much will depend on how much the defense improves. It is pretty clear that Chan had little faith in the defense and that could be why he was so pass-happy. Perhaps an improved defense would mean more carries for both Fred and CJ.

This is a kid the Bills can build a defense around REGARDLESS of scheme!

The top of the 2011 draft looks good already. And, yes, that includes Dareus. He is going to be the cornerstone of the Buffalo defense for years to come. He is big, versatile and appears to have his head screwed on right. Because of what he is asked to do, he is not going to be a sack-monster or a tackling machine. But he will command attention from opposing defenses, which should allow other players around him (assuming we get some upgrades there) to produce. Believe it or not good big men like him are much harder to find that talented wide receivers (AJ Green) and pass rush specialists (Miller). That isn't to knock either of those guys, who had outstanding rookie seasons and look to be quality players for years to come. Indeed, the Bills could use a player like Miller and Green in this year's draft if they are there. Honestly, I do not see any real separation between Fitz and Dalton. Both are, IMHO, middle-of-the-road starting QBs. Dalton was a good pick up for the Bengals, because they desperately needed to find an instant starter once Palmer pulled his prima dona nonsense. Yes, Dalton is a rookie and could certainly get better, but he had the benefit of a very good defense to back him up, and the offense was structured in such a way that Dalton was not asked to do much. Whereas, Fitz, I believe, put too much pressure on himself to try to score on every possession, largely because he was having to play catch-up so often. Chan probably could have helped him a little more with additional patience with the running game. I liked what I saw from Aaron Williams most of the time. I know everyone screams every time the Bills draft a CB early, but their history of allowing them to walk (Odoms, Buris, Winfield, Clements, Greer...) means that they have to invest high picks on them early. Also, Dave W has traditionally favored using more man-coverage, and the Bills are going to need tough, physical CBs to deal with teams like the Pats.

Funny how he looks so much better with some real studs along the DL. Note that when that unit was banged up a month or so ago, the Giants' fans were complaining about him. If Nix and co. can find a couple of legitimate pass rushing linemen/olb, I think we will be happy with Dave W.

Yea, the word I am hearing is that the Redskins Plan A is to acquire Matt Flynn. However, it sounds like Flynn will either wind up with Seattle or Miami. Plan B, then, is for Washington to move up to #2 -- and they are willing to give St. Louis anything they want in order to make that happen.

Anyone who argues that the Bills missed the boat in not signing Stevie after his breakout 2010 season has a short memory. Does the name Jason Peters ring a bell? The Bills saw the talent in him early on and signed him to a contract extension that looked really good at the time. Once Peters started getting some recognition around the league, he wanted a new contract a year after signing his previous one. As much as Ralph's penny pinchers may or may not understand this, the NFL is never a "buy low" proposition except for through the draft. The only solution to this is to provide an environment in which players will WANT to come and play for your team without having to demand top dollar. Since Buffalo isn't a luxurious town, the only way for this to happen is for the team to get better. Kind of a chicken and the egg proposition... That is why it is vital that the team has a strong 2012 draft and wisely attracts the free agents they can -- even if they are not the glamorous sort.

The Giants have gotten hot (and not coincidentally healthy) at the right time. When they are healthy on defense, they can routinely get pressure on the QB with their front 4. That allows the secondary to do what it needs to do to handle the WRs -- both in terms of coverage and laying the wood on the receivers. The Bills would do well to follow their model for success.

And yet the Bills DID beat the Pats this year and were 2 bad INTs away from beating the Giants IN New York (if just one of those picks hadn't been thrown). Where I think the Bills need the most help is in the depth department. The team that beat New England back in Week 3 was probably a playoff team. The team that ended the season with so many injured players was far from it.

Well, in his defense, Ralph forced him to first his coordinators, and he was having trouble finding anyone willing to take the jobs giving his less than solid footing.

Textbook Buffalo Bills negotiating going on here. Remember that Chris Brown is a mouth-piece for OBD. We have seen this before with Jason Peters, Jabari Greer, Pat Williams, and others. The Bills start leaking demand figures to the press to make it seem like the player is greedy. Fans get on board with not over paying. Then the player winds up signing elsewhere for what seems like a "reasonable" amount.

That list includes 1999, the year he was DC for Jimmy's Dolphins. He also built some good defenses in Chicago as head coach -- and, of course, in Dallas. Wanny has always been a good game-day strategist but was a questionable talent evaluator when working as a head coach. If Nix/Whaley/Gailey can find him some good players, I have no doubt that he will coach them up. In fact, having an established coach like this may just attract some decent free agents on the defensive side of the ball.

Some random thoughts about Fitz... 1. His inconsistency is maddening, and I simply cannot put my finger on the cause/solution. Accuracy is certainly an issue. But we have seen many instances where he can thread the needle -- and throw it on a rope between defenders. Clearly the long ball isn't his strength, but he he has often been inaccurate on too many short passes (screens included) as well. His errors tend to be more physical errors than mental ones, as reading defenses IS a strength. On a related note, his biggest strength is with is pre-snap reads and knowing where to go with the ball quickly. That is a big reason why the Bills were among the league leaders in fewest sacks allowed this year. I think part of what happened this year is that the defense was so bad that he often felt COMPELLED to score on every possession, which led to too many negative plays. 2. He certainly does not have elite arm strength, but it is adequate. As I alluded to above, the deep ball is NOT a strength of his. But I do not think it is a matter of arm strength. As often as he under-threw receivers, he also over-threw them. Since he does not have an elite arm (a la Rogers, Cutler, Stafford or Vick), he cannot get away with poor mechanics. That is, poor footwork is often a culprit of bad passes from Fitz as was best exemplified by those 2 INTs he threw in the Giants game. 3. He was not helped by play calling or supporting cast. It is not a coincidence that Fitz's fortunes started fading at the time that injuries to the surrounding players on offense revealed just how thin the roster is. I know many here are unhappy with Stevie -- and what he did in the season finale was just plain foolish -- but the Buffalo Bills are NOT going to be a better team if they allow him to leave. I liked what I saw from Hagan Sunday, and I wonder if he could be a player like Brandon Lloyd who suddenly figures it out after several years in the league. The possibility of Easley making it onto the field in 2012 intrigues me, but he has yet to play a down in a real NFL game. Roscoe is probably a goner. As a WR3, David Nelson is fine; but he doesn't belong on the outside. Donald Jones and N. Roosevelt both needed to be upgraded. Since Chan is so stuck on running these multi-WR sets, it is imperative that the Bills have depth at the position. I would like to see the Bills re-sign Stevie AND bring in another WR in the off-season. Chandler was a revelation at TE this year, and the Bills can certainly get by with him. But I do have to wonder how much better the offense would be with an elite guy like Gronkowski there. It wouldn't hurt Chan to take a page out of the Patriots' playbook and run multi-TE sets with Chandler and a another quality pass-catching TE at the helm. Of course, if they take care of the WR position, Nelson can function in that role as a slot WR too. Getting back to the play calling, I am worried that Chan is starting to get Kevin Gilbriditis. Like Chan, Gilbride has been a successful OC here (at least in 2002) and elsewhere. He certainly deserves some credit for what the Giants have done in recent years. However, he sometimes INSISTS on throwing the ball when it just doesn't make good sense -- just like Chan. With SJ benched, Chandler out of the game and the OL fortified (valiantly) with numerous back-ups, you would have thought that Chan would focus more on the running game once the Bills took a 21-point lead. 4. Not sure there is help on the horizon. There are probably about 10 starting QBs in the league that I would rather have than Fitz right now, and there about an equal number of QBs in the league to whom I believe that he is undoubtedly superior currently. I would say that he ranks somewhere in the 13-18 range at QB -- or, in other words, he is an average starter. Now, there are currently a number of positions that are woefully below average (especially WR2 and LB/DE). Getting an elite QB trumps all else, and I would hope that the front office heads into next season with the same mind-set that they did last year. That is, they can survive with Fitz, but if a franchise QB falls to them, then they HAVE to take him. Alas, those guys do not grow on trees. They are not going to be able to get Luck -- and probably not RG3 either. What I do hope they do differently than last year is that if a high risk/high reward guy like Mallet happens to be there for the taking (as he was as late as the 3rd round last year), then they should pull the trigger. Even if it takes him a year or 2 to develop, the Bills have the luxury of being patient with adequacy at the position with Fitz. At least that is my 2 cents...

Dueling banjos

When Marv stepped in as GM in 2006, it really wasn't to replace Donahoe. After all, Donahoe had been the true decision maker for the Bills and had developed a reputation as an autocrat by the time he was let go after the 2005 season. To drive the point home that Marv was a delegate rather than a dictator he ran those 2 drafts that he oversaw on a consensus basis. The idea was to draft players that everyone could live with rather than a player that some in the room were opposed to taking. When the Bills were on the clock back in April of 2006, there were some in the room who wanted Jay Cutler. Some wanted H. Ngata. Some wanted B. Bunkley. Some wanted him to trade down as there were reportedly offers on the table from both the Eagles and Eagles. Whitner was a guy that everyone in the room could live with. While his upside was limited, he had a very low risk of being a bust. He was and is a good player -- but he never lived up to the status of having been the #8 player taken in the draft. Safeties drafted that high are expected to be like Ed Reed -- not merely good players. We complain around here a lot about all of the first round busts -- and certainly have been plenty of them. However, too many of our first rounders -- Winfield, Nate, Willis, Whitner, and Lynch -- all wind up playing on different teams. It's like the Bills know that they can draft RBs and DBs well, so they never try to keep them. That is why they are never in the process of building a team that has any sort of staying power.

I am surprised that no one here complained about Gailey's stubborn over-use of Tashard Choice. Rarely does anything good happen when he steps on the field.

The Bills need to re-sign Stevie AND draft a WR (not necessarily in the 1st round).

Anyone who doesn't recognize that Stevie should be re-signed... well, I don't want to listen to what you have to say about football or the state of the Bills for more than a minute. The issue is that SJ needs a reliable compliment at the WR position. That should help Fitz too -- although, Fitz's maddening inconsistency must be addressed as well.

I don't know what it is -- but Fitz is clearly lost right now.

What is the fastest way to improve the football team? Look at the players who are terrible -- and find upgrades for them. That is why I am more focused on finding better OLBs, DL, CBs, OL, and WRs. And, when I am talking about upgrades at WR, I am talking about Jones/Roosevelt rather than Steve Johnson, who is a good receiver. Fitz is not elite -- but he is certainly adequate. I would rather replace the players that are less than adequate. Once we get to the point where our team is loaded with adequate or better players, then we can start talking about upgrading them.

If you do a root analysis, the end result you will come up with is that the team simply is too lacking in talent from position 1 to 53. This truth was highlighted once the injuries started mounting, as the depth on this team is simply terrible. That has forced Chan to panic in terms of his usual play calling. It has also caused Fitz to press. Now, whose fault is it for the dearth in talent? Well, it is pretty simple, really. In 2001 the team had a brand new (Donahoe) regime pretty much from top to bottom. In 2003 a new head coach was brought in with a different philosophy on offense than the prior regime. So, while the defense didn't change much in his 2-year tenure, the offense was overhauled. In 2006, there was another entire regime change (Levy/Jauron) -- and both offense and defense were drastically overhauled. The GM duties for the next 3-4 years were handled by men who were not even qualified for the position, and the head coach was a buffoon who was inexplicably given way too much latitude in making personnel decisions. In 2010 yet another brand new regime (Nix/Chan) was brought in with differing philosophies on offense as well as defense. Only a player or 2 remain from the Donahoe era. There are remarkably few held over from the Jauron/Levy era. The nucleus of the team is made up of middling free agents and players who were drafted (or picked up as UDFA) by the current regime. I have written elsewhere that I believe that Tom Modrak bares the brunt of blame for the poor drafts from 2002 thru 2010. He was let go after this year's draft and reportedly had very little say in the decisions that were made this last April. Considering that his 2002-2010 tenure was book-ended by 2 quality drafts in 2001 and (so far) 2011 of which he had little or no participation, I do not believe it is a stretch to place the burden of blame on him for those poor drafts during his time as chief college scout. Thus, an argument could be made that the true impact of the current collection of talent really started THIS year. Let's give the current regime some time. Continuity is a good thing. It starts with retaining most of the coaching staff -- although, I can certainly see canning George Edwards -- and the front office. Then it moves toward player retention. Not every player has to be a stud, so it IS important to retain guys that are solid football players. A key example, of course, is Steve Johnson. No, he isn't Larry Fitzgerald -- but he is a quality starting WR in the NFL. Imagine if the team were smart enough to retain him AND seek an upgrade either via the draft or free agency for the other starting WR position?