2003Contenders

Those of us who are over 50 know what a revolutionary figure that Fran Tarkenton was. When he left the game, he owned virtually every passing record and rushing record at the QB position. And he did this during an era when these modern rules designed to aid the passing game were NOT in place. He also played with tons of heart -- I believe he was only about 5'10", so not much bigger than Flutie, and managed to play in the league for about 20 years. I know he gets a lot of grief for going 0-3 in Super Bowls, but he played against some legendary defenses in those games -- and the Vikings own revered defense (Purple People Eaters) had trouble stopping those AFC offenses.

The key for me is to see how well our defense handles the run. Both the Cardinals and Dolphins had some success running the ball (especially up the middle) -- but both inexplicably got away from it. Pederson will stay committed to the run (and mix in some play-action if it is successful). This will allow them to control the clock and quiet the crowd. If the Bills can shut down the running game and force the Jags into pass-happy mode, given our pass rush and the great/loud fans, I think it will be a comfortable win for the Bills. The defense also needs to keep a watchful eye on RBs creeping out of the backfield on screens, etc.

Actually, I think that was a good no-call: 1. Ingram WAS looking back. Watch his head multiple times turning from the defender to the ball. 2. The official is RIGHT there and watching closely. Nothing was missed -- he was right there and made a judgement call, not something that was missed. 3. The officials were very consistent about allowing the players to play and not calling ticky-tack interference calls all game. The contested catch that Keon made could very easily have drawn a DPI flag (which obviously would have been declined), and Lewis was handsy on an earlier play on that final drive as well that could have easily been called.

I still say that all of this goes back to the 2018 draft when BOTH Josh and Lamar were very polarizing figures. Many scouts thought Josh had elite talent with all of the desired measurables and may have been the most talented QB to EVER come out of college, while others felt that his production at Wyoming (in particular his accuracy) was underwhelming. Meanwhile, many scouts were intrigued by Lamar's Vick-like traits and thought he was an even more accomplished passer coming out of Lousiville; critics refused to even classify him as a QB (believing he was more of a Kordell Stewart "slash" player). Clearly both of these young men have proven their naysayers wrong -- and both are among the best QBs in the league. However, while virtually everyone has come around on Lamar -- even feeling shame or denying ever having doubted him -- there are still plenty of folks out there (even on this message board) who want to stick with their initial assessments of Josh and stubbornly refuse to admit what a generational NFL QB he truly is. It's like every time he has a bad game, they are on hand to exclaim, "See, I was right!". The term "overrated" has even been tossed around by multiple sources over the last few weeks. While both of these guys are top drawer NFL players, Lamar's skill set is far less transferable than Josh's. That is, Lamar needs the right offensive scheme and supporting talent that will allow him to thrive and best utilize his running prowess. Josh would thrive in ANY offense, past or present. You could literally take him off the Bills and put him on any of the other 31 teams' roster and he would still be an elite QB.

Mine is a 12-team, 1/2 point PPR Superflex (can start a 2nd QB) with IDP. IDP scoring is heavily influenced by tackles with 1 point per tackle. QB: Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield RB: Kyren Williams, Zamir White, Zeke Elliott, Ray Davis, Tyrone Tracy Jr. WR: Nico Collins, DJ Moore, Jayden Reed, Xavier Worthy, Khalil Shakir, Jameson Williams TE: Trey McBride, Cole Kmet K: Cameron Dicker DL: Derrick Brown LB: Azeez Al-Shaair DB: Kyle Dugger Given that it is a Superflex league, I loaded up on QB in the first two rounds (Lamar 8th overall and Murray 17th). Most of the guys in the league were using more standard rankings, so they went RB/WR early, which left me with slim pickings at both of those positions beginning in the 3rd/4th. I think I did OK at WR given that I waited until the 4th to start addressing and landed some depth/upside late with Worthy/Shakir/Williams. But I am weak at RB -- and there is very little left on the waiver wire there. Hoping that K. Williams will stay health and maintain a reasonable 15-18 touch workload, White and Elliott (even with limited upside) will get by on volume, and that Davis and/or Tracy will be rookies who see playing time as the season progresses.

Kirwin actually was a GM. Worked for both the Jets and Patriots, I believe.

And what exactly makes you think that Dotson is better than anything the team already has? He has barely eclipsed 500 yards in either season he's been in the NFL. Hollins (who none of us think is great) is 2 years removed from a 57-catch, 690-yard season.

Same here. I honestly thought he was in the mix when Coleman went at 2.01. I was actually furious on Day 3 of the draft, knowing that the team had multiple 5th rounders to use as trade-up bounty, that the Bills allowed him to drop all the way to the 4th round. But... I will say that Beane and his staff did their due diligence on Franklin, meeting with him on multiple occasions. My thought at the time was that they were very interested in him. In hindsight I suspect that the various meetings reinforced the poor showing he had at the combine, and they took him off their board.

I find the evolution of sports writers' contrasting views of Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson -- both of whom were drafted in 2018 and had plenty of naysayers -- to be very interesting. As we know the predictions of Josh Allen's prospects as an NFL player varied widely -- with little in between. Essentially, he was the classic boom or bust prospect with traditional scouts loving his measurables -- but new-wave analytics guys hating his college stats and how they projected to the pros. Meanwhile, there were many prognosticators that did not think that Lamar Jackson could even play the QB position in the NFL at all -- and that he was destined to evolve into an NFL WR or TE. Clearly the critics of both QBs were wrong. The difference is that the Jackson critics have almost unanimously come around on him -- and even expressed shame for having doubted him. For Josh, while a great many of his doubters have also come around to him as well -- there are still many of them out there that refuse to admit that they were wrong and are continuing to die on the hill that he doesn't read defenses well, is turnover-prone, has a poor completion %, etc. They look for the slightest weakness in his game, exaggerate it -- and use it to "justify" their misgivings about him when he came out of college. When he fails to exhibit the accuracy and consistency of a Brady/Montana/Brees, the critics call him "over-rated". Never mind that at his best, Josh is capable of out-playing any QB who has ever lived. It really is weird. Josh himself will tell you that there are things that he could do better. Be smarter with the ball, continue to work on his accuracy, cut down on unnecessary risks, etc. But to call him overrated is simply asinine.

Going back to my youth here... Joe Namath - my first memories of football Fred Biletnikoff - when I was a kid playing receiver, I always wanted to be him "Mean" Joe Green - beast on the field and I still love that classic Coke commercial Kenny Stabler - loved his style; when he would screw up, he would shout to the players on defense, "Just keep it close!" Earl Campbell - the "Tyler Rose"; ran with a real force (sadly he would pay for it later in life) Ronny Lott - Toughness personified; dude had part of his finger amputated to avoid having surgery and going on IR Matt Millen (as a player, not GM!) - smart, intense; helped multiple teams win Super Bowls Mike Singletary (as a player, not coach!) - speaking of intense, who can forget those EYES!

I should have double-checked my target conversion rates because you are right that there is no way that Josh (as much as I love him) is going to complete 78% of his passes. I was suggesting something close to a 70% -- but even with unaccounted for throwaways, etc. the individual converted-target numbers that I cited are well beyond optimistic. 🙂 While it is true that Josh's career completion percentage is around 63% -- it is considerably higher after his first two formative years. In fact, he was very CLOSE to 70% back in 2020: 2023 - 66.49% 2022 - 63.32 2021 - 63.41 2020 - 69.23 Even if the 66% he completed last year is perhaps more likely, I think we are somewhat in agreement that the offense for 2024 will include more of a short passing game than we saw under Dorsey, with Kincaid/Knox and the RBs being heavily incorporated along with short routes to Samuel, etc. Shorter/safer routes would also lead to higher completion percentage, so I do feel like 66%+ is a reasonable expectation. Obviously, early chemistry with a number of new cast members will be vitally important as well. It would also help if that the YAC numbers (which have been abysmal for the Bills in recent years) would start to see a spike.

I think these are very fair points. I will say, though, that if you dig a little deeper into the regular season games, the disparity in passing opportunities is not as different during the Dorsey-called games (the first 11 weeks) versus the Brady-called games (after week 11). Josh averaged 34.7 passing attempts in the games in which Dorsey was the OC. He averaged 32.8 pass attempts in Brady's games. I don't think that 2 pass attempts per game is overly significant, especially when you consider the extremity of the Dallas game when he only attempted 15 passes because the Bills were running at will against the Cowboys. If you take that game out, then Josh averaged 36.4 passing attempts in the other Brady games. So, I don't believe that the team necessarily went run-crazy after Brady took over. That said, Josh's passing production certainly declined, as his completion percentage dropped from 69.63% (261 yards per game and 7.52 yards per attempt) under Dorsey to 60.41% (238.5 yards per game and 7.26 yards per attempt) under Brady. There could be many reasons for that: Josh's injury, Diggs' decline, bad weather late in the season, etc. It is worth noting that Josh's average completion was actually HIGHER under Brady at 12.025 yards per completion versus the 10.808 he had under Dorsey last season. So the notion that the offense was more dink-and-dunk under Brady is also a myth. While I must acknowledge that the team does not have anyone on the team that is currently capable of replacing Diggs' overall production -- it may not be so hard to replace the minimal production he provided in Brady's tenure at OC. I am hopeful that Shakir and Kincaid will continue to improve -- and that Coleman, Samuel, and some combination of Claypool/MVS/Hollins/Knox/Cook (even R. Davis) will collectively pick up that slack. I believe (or hope) that a healthy Josh with a full off-season in Brady's desired offense with better complimentary receivers will result in more consistent results. If Josh can get the completion percentage back up to close to 70%, then even with the slightly fewer passing attempts we saw under Brady last year, we would be looking at something like 390/558 attempts for 4648 yards. Bottom line: those 500+ attempts have to go somewhere. Here's my stab at guessing the distribution... Kincaid 100 targets, 82 receptions, 750 yards Shakir 85 targets, 70 receptions, 900 yards Samuel 75 targets, 65 receptions, 600 yards Cook 65 targets, 52 receptions, 500 yards Coleman 60 targets, 45 receptions, 585 yards Knox 40 targets, 28 receptions, 225 yards MVS 40 targets, 25 receptions, 370 yards Claypool 30 targets, 21 receptions, 294 yards R. Davis 20 targets, 15 receptions, 100 yards Hollins 20 targets, 13 receptions, 180 yards That gives us a total of 383 completions for 4504 yards-- with the other 7 going to non-regular receivers (Gilliam, Ty Johnson, Morris and possibly a tackle-eligible lineman). I would love for Shakir to elevate to a 1000+ receiver, but I am just not ready to predict that yet. Most of his quality production late last year was a product of a ridiculously high percentage of converted targets, which I don't think is sustainable over the course of a full season, especially with no Diggs to draw coverage away. I am not even going to guess at the TD numbers, but I expect Josh to pass for about 30 again with possibly a few of those redzone TD runs of his becoming passes this year instead, given the surplus of big-bodied receivers. Bold prediction: despite the relatively low reception and yardage totals, Coleman will lead the team with 9 TD receptions. Anyway, that's my story and I am sticking to it. 🙂

There may be some truth to this --- BUT it does not explain the meltdown he had (resulting in McD sending him home) at the start of last season's training camp. Or the meltdown in the playoff game against Cinci. Or the reported altercation between him and Josh after the Jets loss in Week 1. All of these events happened well before Brady took over as OC. I have always said that Diggs played a significant role in Josh's maturation as a QB. It wasn't until Diggs joined the Bills in 2020 (Josh's third season) that Josh even recorded his first 300-yard game, and Josh did that in Diggs' first game as a Bill. The very next game Josh recorded his first 400-yard game. I will always be grateful for the great things that Diggs did as a Bill. He had some fantastic catches that helped win games -- the first catch late in the game against Detroit comes to mind. But his antics - tantrums, finger-pointing, etc. grew tiresome. I wish him no ill, but I think (hope) that Josh (and the rest of the team) will have a much less stressful time without the drama. We just need other WRs on the the team to seize the opportunity to step up, as Diggs is vacating 100+ receptions a year.

Some random thoughts: -- After 2 years in the league, Cook does not have a lot of mileage on him. So I would be less fearful of signing him to a 2nd contract than I would be if he were a true workhorse style RB. -- Davis profiles to be more of a "every-down" back than Cook does. Obviously he has not played a down in the NFL yet, so we will have to see. -- The Davis/Cook combo could be lethal, if Davis proves to be the 4th-round steal I hope he proves to be and Brady comes up with some quality schemes. -- The market the last couple of years has not been a great one for RBs, as teams have realized the short lifespan they have and the typical poor investment in giving a workhorse RB a huge 2nd contract All of this is to say that if Cook continues to improve and evolves into a mainstay "lightning" in a proverbial thunder-and-lightning running game, then he could very well be worth re-signing, provided that the contract is a modest one. Conversely, if Davis does turn out to be a workhorse, it would not be difficult finding a 3rd-down back to replace Cook and compliment Davis. So many factors at play here, some of which we will find out this year: Does Cook continue to improve? How good is Davis? Regardless, if Cook is looking for a contract that pays him north of, say, $4M per season, then that money would be better invested elsewhere.

Those guys don't count against the salary cap -- just the top 51 salaries on the roster count against the cap.

The only thing I will say is that that Marrone did get to 9-7 in 2014 with Kyle Orton at QB. Plug the current version of Josh Allen into that lineup, and the team definitely makes the playoffs.

I too am optimistic that Josh will have the best season of his career -- even if it does not mean the most passing yards, etc. of his career. I really do feel like under Dorsey last season, Josh was pressing -- and seemed much more comfortable after the switch to Brady in Week 11. Who can forget Josh exclaiming, "I'm f***ing back!" in that first game with Brady as OC against the Jets. I look at his production during those last 7 weeks, where he passed for 139/229, 1706 yards, 10 TDs, and 7 INTs. He also rushed 63 times for 278 yards and 8 TDs. Over a full season that amounts to 338/556, 4143 yards, 24 TDs, and 17 INTs (with 153 rushing attempts for 675 yards and 19 TDs). Those are still very elite numbers -- even if there is almost certainly going to be a down-tick in the rushing TD department. I think a full off-season where Brady has the opportunity to instill "his" offense will help. I know in their heart-of-hearts McD (and probably Brady too) would love to win via a ground attack like they did against the Cowboys, where Josh only passed for less than 100 yards -- but that is nirvana and not week-to-week reality. As I already mentioned, Brady also seemed more willing than Dorsey to "let Josh be Josh", so I do expect continued (but hopefully prudent) use of Josh in the running game. And, for all of our concerns about the quality of the players in the WR room, I will say that the guys who are present do have a propensity for CATCHING the ball, which can't be said about Diggs and Davis during the late stretch last year. I also do not think we can overestimate how much better things will be on the field/sidelines/locker room without Diggs' larger-than-life presence. Diggs certainly deserves a good amount of credit for Josh's emergence as an elite QB when Diggs arrived back in 2020. But his antics grew tiresome, and I believe played a significant role in Josh's down demeanor last season.

Ironic that we have a GM named B. Beane, because it looks like our GM, Brandon, appears to be taking a page out of the GM of the Oakland A's Billy "Moneyball" Beane from years past. Given the cap constraints that we find ourselves in this year, that makes sense. Rather than looking at a conventional WR1, WR2, etc., Beane is looking at the totality of the receiving corps which coupled with an elite QB, he believes can maintain the overall production from the team last year that did ostensibly have a "WR1" in Diggs. It is true that we are losing our top 2 receivers from last season in Diggs and Davis who accounted for 152 catches, 1929 yards and 15 TDs. But if we take a step back and look at the final 7 games of the season, when Brady was calling the offense (and the team went 6-1 with just the one heartbreaking loss to Philly), Diggs/Davis combined for just 46 catches, 571 yards and 3 TDs. Worse, Diggs was disparagingly unproductive with the receptions he did have, averaging less than 10 yards per catch, 315 yards on 34 receptions and just 1 TD. Shakir was more productive than either of them over that span, accounting for 363 yards (Davis had 256). Meanwhile, after our top 3 in Diggs/Davis/Shakir, there was very little production from any other WR. Sherfield and Harty COMBINED for 26 receptions, 236 yards and 2 TDs. Getting more production from our new WR4 and WR5 could help to cushion the blow of losing Diggs and Davis. So would hopefully seeing an uptick in Shakir's production. I am not suggesting that Shakir is capable of fully replacing Diggs just because he was more productive later in the season (and especially in the playoffs) than Diggs. But assuming Shakir is a more primary target in the 2024 offense, it stands to reason that he can increase his total 2024 output of 39 receptions for 611 yards and 2 TDs substantially. He wasn't far behind Davis last year in terms of catches (45-to-39) and yards (746-to-611), so I do not think it is unreasonable to project, say, 52 receptions for 800 yards for Shakir. Replacing Davis's TD output may not be as easy -- but I think 4-5 TDs for Shakir is a reasonable, conservative expectation. I can also see similar numbers for Samuels (he had 62 receptions and 4 TDs last season with garbage at QB) and the rookie Coleman, who I can see being a TD-machine in this offense and matching (or even exceeding) Davis' TD output. Getting back to the Bills' dismal WR4 and WR5 production in 2023, coming off an admittedly underwhelming season, MVS still out-produced Sherfield/Harty COMBINED with 315 yards. He's just a year removed from posting 687 yards and posted 690 back in 2020. That's to say that he alone could make up for some of the lost WR production -- and help to provide some added insurance in the event that Coleman has a rookie learning curve to overcome. Whomever from Hollins/Cephus/Claypool/Hamler/Shorter makes the team should also pick up some of that production as well. Of course, none of this even accounts for the expected involvement (and improvement) from the TEs and RBs in the passing game. Or that Brady's offense may be less WR-centric and more run-oriented and make more use of 12-personnel and TE involvement. Long story short, if we replace from 2023: Diggs 107 rec 1183 yards 8 TD Davis 45 rec 746 yards 7 TD Shakir 39 rec 611 yards 2 TD Harty 15 rec 150 yards 1 TD Sherfield 11 rec 86 yards 1 TD ------------------------------------ Total 217 rec 2776 yards 19 TD With something like for 2024: Shakir 52 rec 800 yards 5 TD Samuel 65 rec 770 yards 4 TD Coleman 51 rec 750 yards 8 TD MVS 31 rec 480 yards 2 TD Hollins* 16 rec 200 yards 1 TD ------------------------------------ Total 215 rec 3000 yards 20 TD In this scenario (which I don't think is unreasonable), we still get better production from the top 5 WRs even if we don't have a single WR with 100+ receptions and 1000+ yards.

Even if you like him, the first sentence in the OP's post precludes the Bills from ever having been able to trade for him even if they wanted to: "DJ is $10M on the books..."

Cam and those 2015 Panthers did not have to deal with the Mahomes/Reid Chiefs back in 2015 -- whereas the Josh-era Bills were knocked out of the playoffs by those Chiefs 3 times -- twice in break-heart fashion. Otherwise, Josh and the Bills very likely would have appeared in at least 2 Super Bowls (and possibly 3).

As others have mentioned, I believe that two players that come to mind that never made it to the playoffs during their Bills tenure here -- and would make a huge impact on the current team -- are Aaron Schobel and Lee Evans.

Yea, I honestly have a great deal of respect for him. He's the real deal and seems to be a good dude. Just wish our defense would show up against him in the playoffs.

Just some random thoughts... 1. The Bills are not going to be wowing us with any free agent signings, given their current cap situation. Even modest signings like those of Gallup, OBJ, Chark, etc. are currently out of the Bills' price range. So for now we will have to be content with dumpster diving -- and hoping to hit on a potential diamond in the rough. Also, while they will be in better shape after June 1 when Tre's cap savings are freed up, I imagine the theme will be for them to remain frugal, given rookie contracts, etc. 2. Claypool has shown more than glimpses of what his upside represents. More, in fact, than Hamler. In Claypool's rookie season with a declining Big Ben, he racked up 62 receptions for 873 yards and 9 TDs. Those are probably reasonable (maybe even hopeful) projections for what we might expect from Coleman as a rookie this season. In his second season (when Big Ben was all but shot) Claypool posted remarkably similar numbers: 59 receptions for 860 yards; however, he only scored 2 TDs. The Steelers traded him to Chicago early on the next season -- and we know what a mess that Chicago offense was in 2022. Claypool failed to catch on with Miami -- but he was a very poor fit for their scheme. 3. I don't know what (if anything) Claypool has left. Is the production he exhibited back in 2020/2021 ancient history? Likely it is. But he is still young, and injuries have not been an issue for him the way they have been for Hamler, for example. After a promising rookie season, his career has been plagued by lousy QB play, poor scheme fit and poor attitude/preparation. In Buffalo he now has an elite QB -- and based on the "big" direction the offense is headed, it would seem that he is an ideal scheme fit. Provided that at just 25, he has not lost the physical talent he exhibited as a rookie, it would seem that the only thing holding him back is effort/attitude. This is exactly the low-risk sort of gamble the Bills SHOULD be trying in their current cap-strapped situation.

That is fair. Over his 4-year career Hamler has only caught a pass in 20 games and amassed a grand total of 42 receptions, 620 yards and 3 TDs. His greatest production came in his rookie season (back in 2020) when he did exhibit some potential. But he barely played in 2021 and 2022 and not at all last season. I am really pulling for him -- but I don't think it is reasonable to expect much (if anything).

I agree -- the only caveat I have is that if there is as great of demand for other teams to move up to #33 as Beane claims, he would be hard-pressed to avoid trading down if an offer comes in that is too good to refuse.