2003Contenders

That was one of the most maddening drafts that the Bills ever had. Not only because they missed on some key players, but because they also had the opportunity to trade down but didn't. Marv made a mess of that draft. But there was plenty of blame to go around -- classic case where the suits didn't trust their scouts' opinions. A reliable source told me the following: 1. The scouts had D'Brik Ferguson as their highest rated player. Modrak and Marv pursued the possibility of trading up, but the cost was deemed too high. 2. When the Bills picked at 8, the scouts had Ngata as the highest rated player on their board. However, there was some concern about his propensity to "take plays off". Also, perceived as more of a NT, Jauron was more interested in a 3-Technique type. He was supposedly clamoring for Broderick Buckley. 3. In the weeks before the draft, the scouts had done their due diligence reviewing the QBs. They had Cutler rated as their top QB in the draft -- ahead of both Young and Leinart. Marv believed that JP had not been given a fair shot up until that point and did not want to draft a first round QB to further "confuse the situation". Modrak agreed that Ngata deserved to be ranked higher on the board but felt that a potential franchise QB like Cutler trumped that. He REALLY wanted the team to draft Cutler at 8. 4. There was also strong consideration for Michael Huff, the DB from Texas. However, the Bills had more or less black-balled that school since receiving what they believed were inaccurate assessments about Mike Williams a few years before. (This was largely a Modrak prejudice) They also shared the view of many front office people around the league that Mack Brown was simply not putting out NFL-ready players. As it turned out, Huff went one pick before the BIlls to the Raiders anyway. 5. Given the varying opinions -- Ngata, Buckley, Cutler -- about who the team should select with that pick, Marv tried to play the role of appeaser. He instead tried to identify a player that everyone in the room could live with. Someone who was versatile. Someone who came from a big time college program. Someone who was still young and could be with the team for well over a decade. Someone with no character issues and a high floor (not necessarily a high ceiling). Someone who filled a position of need. Marv's consensus pick was Donte Whitner, who was barely 20 years old from Ohio State (renowned for cranking out defensive backs), and could play either corner or safety. The Bills had just recently parted ways with Lawyer Milloy and needed a replacement. 6. Once the decision was made on Whitner, the team never truly investigated the possibility of trading down. Most draftniks had Whitner as more of a mid-to-late first round choice. Meanwhile, both the Broncos (at 15) and the Eagles (a couple of picks further down) were trying to move up to 8. Both were willing to give up plenty to do so. However, Marv was worried that the Ravens (who supposedly also liked Whitner) would take him at #14. So he ignored any possible trade options -- and the team actually raced to the podium to make the Whitner selection. The Ravens wound up trading up one spot (with division rival Cleveland) to get Ngata. 7. While Whitner was the team's consensus choice, Modrak was still angry that they had passed on Cutler. He was rightfully insistent that JP was never going to be a franchise QB. The guy he loved in the 2nd half of the first round was John McCargo. So the dubious decision to move up from the 2nd to get him was Marv's way of pacifying Modrak. Whew! At least they did land Kyle Williams in the 5th round in that draft -- and Whitner kind of was what they were looking for. A decent player that was not a bust -- but you ordinarily want more of an impact player with the #8 pick overall.

With the benefit of 48 hours removal from the game, I have chilled a bit from my initial (over)reaction to what we saw Sunday. 1. Despite all the hyperbole we heard in the preseason and all the false expectations that we as fans placed on this team, it is pretty clear that this team (as it exists now) is not an elite football team. That was evidenced by what we saw in Week 2, when Brady and Billy B. had their way with the Bills at Orchard Park. The good news is that there really are probably only 2 teams in the AFC that I would categorize as elite right now -- and we have already lost to both of them, the Patriots and Bengals (more on that in a minute). The Bills belong in that next echelon of teams -- along with 8-10 other AFC teams -- that could vie for a wild card spot. 2. The Bengals are a very good football team -- especially, now that Andy Dalton appears to have figured it out. They have one of the best offensive lines in the game, a thunder-and-lightning RB duo, and plenty of depth. The Bills were able to mostly limit the damage done by both AJ Green and Tyler Eifert (minus one horrible goal line match-up). Credit the Bengals for having other guys like Marvin Jones who were able to step up. Defensively they also have one of the better units in the league top-to-bottom. 3. Injuries do matter -- and they are not an excuse. Like I said, the Bengals are a very good football team -- but most importantly, unlike the Bills, the Bengals have more or less been injury free and mostly had their full compliment of players available on Sunday. Do you think that an offense without their starting QB (Dalton), their between-the-tackle RB (Jeremy Hill), their #2 WR (Marvin Jones), minus their starting RT for most of the game and their top WR (A.J. Green) out for all of the second half -- could have scored 21 points against the Bills on Sunday? That was essentially the position the Bills' offense was in with no Tyrod, Karlos, Percy, Henderson out early in the 1st quarter, and Sammy out for all of the 2nd half. On an even playing field, I actually like the Bills' chances -- even if playing on the road in Cinci. 4. The defense failed to get any pressure on Dalton and also to force any turnovers. It almost seemed like they were trying to play a bend-but-don't break variant. The Bengals really did not burn the offense, aside from the one deep pass to Jones, which was more or less a Hail Mary. At the time, I really thought that Gilmore had come down with the ball. Otherwise, the defense played very conservatively. It was almost like the coaches' game plan was to expect Dalton to make mistakes -- and to his credit he didn't. In the days of Dick Jauron, that may have been the way to go. However, with the defensive line that the Bills have, I seriously question that mind-set. It is also counter to Rex's usual aggressive style. I expect the defense to be VERY aggressive this week against Bortles and the Jags. 5. Often times defensive style is determined by game flow. Thanks to continued dumb penalties and poor special teams, the Bengals were in great field position for most of the game. With the offense so depleted, the Bills were never able to worry the Bengals into believing that they had to play catch-up -- so Cinci was able to stick with their own mistake-free game plan. 6. I know it is only 6 games so far, but a pattern certainly exists of playing better on the road that at home. For one more week (in London) hopefully this pattern continues. Still, the existence of the pattern is puzzling. It is almost like the team is too reved up when they are at home -- only to be easily deflated. You could just sense all the wind coming out of their sails after the Marvin Jones completion to start the 2nd half. If the Bills can take care of business against the Jags in London, they have an extra week to get healthy. I honestly believe that with a fully healthy squad on both sides of the ball, this team is capable of beating any opponent on their remaining schedule (aside from the road trip against the Pats). Go Bills!

Prayers for a full and speedy recovery! God bless.

I Was thinking more 1999 Doug Flutie. Bills won a lot of 13-10 type games that year.

I don't think so. Even his biggest detractors say that EJ is a stand-up guy and the sort of guy you root for. I think it is a combination of factors: 1. Everyone in the media knew that the Bills were going to draft a QB in the first round of the 2013 draft. It's just Manual wasn't the guy they predicted. So when the Bills picked him instead of Nassib or Geno or whomever, these media types who predicted that the Bills would take a different QB wanted EJ to fail to justify their prediction. Guys like Kiper do this all the time. 2. That 2013 draft class was terrible for QBs. Buddy kept saying that history has shown that every year there is 1-2 franchise QBs that come out. Alas, it does not look like that will be the case for this draft class. It may not be that EJ was the WRONG QB for them to take -- it amy simply be that there was not a first-round worthy QB in that draft class, and Buddy should not have pigeon-holed the first round selection as such. I will say that it does sound like the Bills front office were astute enough to realize that the draft class was a weak one at QB. At least they traded down and acquired the Kiko pick for doing so. 3. With a new owner, head coach and offensive cooridnator -- and a GM who can deny culpability (Whaley was on staff but Buddy was technically the GM when the EJ pick was made) -- the "penalty" for missing on the EJ pick is no longer in play. Hence, the team actually brought in competition for the starting QB job this year and the coaching staff and front office haven't floated the puff pieces about EJ that we heard the last two years. I have been hoping and hoping that the light bulb would go on for EJ and that he would solve the team's QB issue for once and for all. But eventually you have to say that where there is smoke there is fire. He was inherited by the current regime, and the prior regime had more or less lost faith in him. He has all the tangibles you would want -- he just doesn't appear to have the natural feel for the position, which is what many of his detractors said at the time he was drafted.

I heard from a reasonably reliable source that at the time the Bills had three players on their board: Lynch, Poz and Revis. Marv supposedly wanted Poz, whereas Modrak wanted Revis. Modrak, who had made an impression on Marv by accurately picking all 11 selections prior to the Bills' pick, was able to convince Marv that Poz could be had later in the draft. However, he lost the battle over Lynch vs. Revis, as many in the room (including Marv) felt that RB was a much bigger need, given the recent departure of McGahee. This was probably another one of those picks where marv was trying to make a pick that everyone in the room could live with -- rather than necessarily taking the "best" player on the board. The Bills did a good job leading up to the draft keeping outiders guessing. The 49ers, for example, supposedly thought that the Bills were interested in Patrick Willis, when in reality they had Poz ranked higher. In retrospect, it probably doesn't matter much. Lynch has proven to be worthy of the selection, but his off-field issues while in Buffalo cut his time here short. Revis would have been out the door when his first contract came up. Modrak supposedly wanted Cutler over Whitner in 2006, Revis over Lynch in 2007 and Cushing over Maybin in 2009. (Leodis was his guy in 2008). Wonder how much our fate over the years may have changed if the team had gone along with his advice.

That Revis guy really sucks.

I think Kujo will have an impact at RT this year -- to at least push Henderson.

Oh come on. Not saying that Jim was always an angel off the field, but I don't think anyone can argue his passion about getting on the field. I remember that season VERY well. Kelly was in a contract year, and the team seemed uninterested in extending him prior to that last year due to his age, perceived regression and the recent acquisition of Todd Collins, who they were supposedly high on at the time. Kelly did contemplate holding out, but Ralph supposedly gave him a handshake deal that they would discuss an extension after the season. While no new deal was ever reached, Ralph made up for it by giving Kelly an ambassador title and paying him something like $2 M. Kelly DID have a serious hamstring injury, which caused him to miss a few games -- and opened the door for Todd Collins. Kelly tried to rush back on the field -- and played very well in his return game against the Bengals -- I believe he tossed 3 TD passes in the first half. Then he aggravated the hammy in that game and had to come out. Like him or not, the team has been a wasteland at the QB position since his retirement. I am sure that the "slight" on Lavar was unintentional. Perhaps Kelly was distracted or something.

I would be more interested in the OTHER L. Collins who fell out of the first round, Landon Collins.

Marrone is gone. Move on.

I may in the minority here, but despite some of the lower rankings by PFF and others, I did not think that Urbik played THAT poorly last season. I know he was banged up in the preseason and somehow wound up in St. Doug's doghouse. It was only by a matter of attrition that he finally got on the field once Williams went down for the season and Richardson proved to be unready for prime time. From what I observed, Urbik was clearly the best of the 3.

For all we know Clay could have come in and underwhelmed the Bills last week -- and he may not even be in their plans anymore. The only comment I have heard from OBD regarding Clay is what Whaley said last Thursday: basically that the Transition Tag presents extra complications and the team was trying to decide whether to present Clay with an offer or not. Honestly, when I heard that, I was under the impression at the time that the Bills had decided to move on. I think the speculation ran wild when Chandler was cut -- but the events may be unrelated. The coaches may have simply felt that Chandler was a poor fit and/or not worth his 2015 salary.

Doesn't really matter. Clay is not limited to the Dolphins and Bills as he can sign with whomever he chooses NOW. Once he does that Miami has 5 days to decide whether or not to take over that contract.

Well, it may not be Clay who is holding up the proposed offer. The Bills may still be looking through the language of the Suh contract to deliver the best possible proposal.

Remember, as much as the Bills may want Clay, every player has his price. If the Browns hypothetically offer him more than the Bills, that will mean that the Browns placed a higher premium on Clay than the Bills did. Should that happen, I think when we see the contract terms, we will be probably agree that the Bills were wise not to pay Gronk money for a guy who is good but not THAT good.

I think Cutler would be the ANTI Rex choice at QB. While Cutler has the talent to carry a team on his back and win a shootout, he also has the propensity to single-handedly LOSE games with untimely poor decisions and turnovers. That is the recipe for a coach killer, which is what Cutler has been throughout his career. I honestly think Rex would prefer a journeyman type like Cassell who would be more of a game manager than a gunslinger. Heck, I think Rex would be more content to rely on EJ, who has actually done a decent job of NOT turning the ball over in his short career, than test the waters with Cutler.

Well, this one isn't even hindsight. The Whitner pick was a dumb one at the time and a dumb one in retrospect. Not that Whitner was a horrible player -- but he was never expected to be an elite safety, which is what you expect from a player taken #8 overall. The Ngata pick was an obvious one. IIRC, I think the issue was that there was fierce disagreement at the time about which player to take. Modrak supposedly was pounding the table for Cutler. There were also offers to trade down, which would have made a lot of sense at that time. The Whitner pick always felt like a safe, something everyone in the room could live with selection. Even worse was trading multiple picks away to move up for McCargo later that day.

Serious question: How much better is Bradford than Jake Locker?

In all honesty, how many franchise QBs have come out of the college ranks in the last 10 years? 2005: Aaron Rodgers 2008: Matt Ryan 2009: Matthew Stafford, Joe Flacco 2011: Cam Newton 2012: Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson I am probably being generous listing some of those guys (Ryan, Flacco, Stafford) as franchise QBs, too. The rest (Cutler, Dalton, Smith, etc.) have been competent starters at best.

Yea, pretty much follow the Seahawks' 2012 model. That is: EJ is the incumbent (Seattle's was Tarvaris Jackson), bring in a veteran (Seattle brought in Matt Flynn) and roll the dice with a mid-round draft pick (a la Russell Wilson). Obviously Seattle hit paydirt with Wilson, and that is the exception to the rule. Still, the Bills need to keep throwing it up against the wall until something sticks.

The thing I always noticed about EJ was his unnatural feel for the game. He always seemed to be very robotic in terms of his mechanics and progressions. Usually that is a signal of being over-coached. Being reminded over and over again "Do this!" or "Don't do that!" It is almost like he had to go through a step-by-step sequence in his head on every play, rather than just (as Ted Marchibroda used to say) "Ler 'er rip!" I hope Roman/Lee/Palmer can work jointly to provide EJ with a cohesive plan for progression. I hope that they also work with the young man to identify what his strengths are and what he is most comfortable doing. He clearly has all the physical talent, is by all accounts very bright and is willing to put forth the effort. This will be a big year for him. As Bill Parcells used to say, every team should have a 4-year plan for a QB. Year 1 should be considered developmental for a rookie. Year 2 should show progress. Year 3 should be the year that the evaluation rings true: either the guy has it or he doesn't. So that in Year 4 he is THE man -- or the team elects to acquire a different QB in year 4 instead. This is the year for EJ where he needs to prove for once and for all whether he CAN be the man.

That is all great news -- and also indirectly squishes any assertion that the team would be looking to make a move for a high-dollar QB. I am coming around to believing that Rex believes that he can win with EJ Manuel as a potential game manager: given all of EJ's faults, he has NOT been a turnover machine in his brief NFL career.

I wouldn't say that Henderson was poor either. I thought he was average -- below average at worst.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Bradford was the last #1 overall draft pick to sign a ridiculous contract (the rookie cap as we now know it was implemented the following season) -- and he is still working off the final year(s) of that contract. Bradford has definitely had his moments -- and has at least shown to be a competent NFL QB -- which is in painfully short supply. It is all about supply and demand, so those believing that Bradford could be had for a measly 3rd round draft pick are dreaming. Like the last 2-3 years, this is a bad year to look for a QB in free agency or the draft -- and the Bills are not the only team in the market for a starting QB. Teams like the Browns, Bucs, Titans, Jets, Texans, and Cardinals all have significantly more ammunition than the Bills do to pull a trade. There is some speculation that even the teams at the top of the draft, may prefer Bradford over Winston or Mariotta. That also begs the inverse question: Why would the Rams be willing to trade him with no bona fide replacement on the horizon? Given the price tag in $, the hefty price in trade compensation -- and the fact that there is no viable alternative for the Rams at the QB position, I suspect that it is highly unlikely that Bradford plays for any team other than the Rams this year.