2003Contenders

He is a top-5 overall talent, but I am not sure any GM in a less than solid situation with his team would be willing to pull the trigger on Hooker with a top 10 pick. He could wind up being a real wild card in this draft.

Interesting that he has Kizer as his top QB.

This almost makes me wonder if Holmes was brought in a Easley's replacement. I am still very much on board with targeting Williams/Davis in the 1st.

I was doing some research a few weeks ago to identify the top 5 salaries at each position, since that is how the franchise tag tenders for some players is calculated. In doing so, I noted that the following Bills players have a top 5 salary for 2017 at their respective positions: DT Marcel Dareus OL Cordy Glenn TE Charles Clay RB LeSean McCoy Meanwhile, the Patriots at the time had exactly ZERO players with a top 5 salary in 2017 at their respective positions. More specifically, Tom Brady's $14 M cap hit in 2017 saw him ranked 21st at his position. Both Tannehill and Tyrod (prior to the restructure) were bigger cap hit for this season than Brady! It is hard to compete when New England has this sort of foundation in place and guys on the team willing to drink the kool aide and play for less money to be there. (Even Hightower passed on more money to play for the Jets.) Meanwhile, the Bills have to overpay just to get free agents to come here.

Kelly figures to be a potential wild card in the draft. Polian is probably not far off about his arm talent and how it compares to the other top draft prospects. However, even if we fully dismiss the off-field stuff the fact remains that he had trouble reading defenses and forced a lot of throws in college. That likely places a 2nd round grade on him in normal circumstances. Then there is the off-field stuff, and there is A LOT of it. Enough to probably scare many teams off and to designate him with the DND (Do Not Draft) designation. Finally, there is the knee injury situation. Given all the other baggage, that likely takes Kelly completely off most draft boards. Of course, it only takes ONE team willing to roll the dice, so who knows what will happen.

If Mixon is in free-fall, I could see the Bills rolling the dice with, say, a 3rd round pick. Otherwise, I do not see them drafting a RB in the first 2 days of the draft (if at all).

Huh? In what way is "The net-loss vs. net-gain is not purely based on head count" incorrect? That is 100% correct! For example, losing a high-priced player who is a huge factor for the acquiring team in 2017 versus acquiring a low-cost depth player who may not even make the 2017 squad does not equate to a 1-for-1 wash (meaning no compensatory pick) via the formula.

Oh, I understand how the comp picks work fine, thank you. Obviously you are new around here, so I will be hospitable. :-) Still, since you called me out, I will respond by saying that nothing I referenced in my post is inaccurate. Perhaps you did not understand something I said, so allow me to reiterate: Compensatory picks stem from a formula developed by the NFL Management Council that is based on salary, playing time and postseason honors. The compensatory formula only applies to certain free agents.

Folks, please ignore anyone at this point who is freaking out about comp picks. They know not of what they speak. The formula is based on multiple factors: 1. Net loss vs. net gains of QUALIFIED unrestricted free agents. 2. The net-loss vs. net-gain is not purely based on head count. The contract size(s) and playing time also figure into the calculation. Obviously these factors cannot be truly evaluated until AFTER the 2017 season. Which is -- get this -- why the compensatory picks are not announced until late February/early March every year! Bottom line, no one should be wigging out about the Bills' potentially losing out on 2018 compensatory picks.

Jim Miller was speculating on Sirius today that if Osweiler gets cut he could wind up with the Bills (as a backup) based on the Dennison connection.

Who knows? At one point in time, I think that JLC and others did have moles within the organization. Think back to the St. Doug stories that came out 3 years ago. However, whomever that mole was (Brandon?) -- he has either been canned, relinquished of inside info, or changed his decision to leak info. I honestly believe that over the last year or so that none of these reporters -- local or otherwise -- have the first clue what is going on within the organization because the front office is now keeping everything close to the vest. So when JLC, Vic or whomever report that they have inside sources, it is likely BS and conjecture as we have seen. At least Rappaport and Schefter admit when they are speculating and wait until they get confirmation from players/agents/league officials/team officials before declaring something is so. Now, playing my own conjecture game, here is what I think happened: 1. Tyrod, as we know, was Rex's guy. While I believe that is a true statement, it also does NOT mean that Whaley and./or others within the organization were necessarily ant-Tyrod guys. 2. After the Miami game, the Bills were officially eliminated and Rex was fired. The regular season finale against the Jets was meaningless. Lynn probably wanted to play to win to help his chances of landing a HC job here or elsewhere. Instead, Whaley/Pegula instructed him to sit Tyrod and start EJ and give Cardale some playing time as well. It was referred to as a business decision at the time, and that is exactly what it was. There was nothing to be gained by the Bills winning that game. Rather, it was a smart thing to do to sit Tyrod and avoid the risk of an injury -- and to also see what EJ and Cardale looked like in live game action. That whole situation looked bad at the time, but probably could have been clarified if Whaley had taken questions along with Lynn at the time everything went down. 3. The team performed a head coaching search -- and was willing to be open-minded about the QB position. Since Tyrod had been Rex's guy, Whaley/Pegula did not want to necessarily impose him upon the new head coach. Conversely, they also did not want to force the new coach (whomever that may have been) to go in another direction either. 3. One of the first things that McD did when he was hired was reach out to Tyrod. Based on what Tyrod said yesterday, it sounds like McD kept in touch with him throughout the process. He also made it a point to hire an OC who was familiar with Tyrod. We can surmise that McD had likely identified Tyrod as the best candidate to be his starting QB in 2017. McD also strikes me as being an honest, no-nonsense guy. So I think we can take his rare comments over the last couple of months at face value. What that also tells me is that he and his staff and reached a consensus that, while Tyrod is unlikely to ever be a franchise QB, he is a guy you can win with if things around him (including the defense) are shored up. 4. Whaley, less forthright than McD, had pretty much come to the same conclusion in terms of Tyrod's prospects. I think he tried investigating the possibility of upgrading the position and realized that there was no realistic option to do that for 2017. There was also the $ aspect and trying to work with Tryod's people to get him to restructure. So when McD said last week that no decision had yet been made about Tyrod's future, I believe he was being honest. 5. When it was all said and done, I believe the coaches asked the front office to retain Tyrod, which they were willing to do once Tyrod agreed to restructure his contract. In the end this was a win-win for all parties. I am not sure how anyone could claim that the process showed dysfunction when it actually showed just the opposite. I also do not see how we can speculate that there was a power struggle here either. Whaley does not strike me as a power-hungry guy. He pretty much worked with Marrone to get him the guys he wanted and by all accounts he did the same for Rex. And it looks like he is doing the same thing with McD so far. I think the negative spin on everything that has happened since week 16 of the regular season is twofold: 1. The press is annoyed with the Bills for keeping info on the low-down and not leaking info. 2. Neither Pegula nor Whaley are especially articulate or like being in front of a camera. So neither has exactly won the war with the media -- or even tried to for that matter.

Not to be THAT guy, but if you could bring him in at the vet minimum as a backup, would you do it?

Jerry has been (and remains) a troll long before the term as we now know it was invented. My favorite was leading up to the 2004 draft when he insisted that the Bills must do whatever it took to draft a QB in the first round. Then when they tried (and failed) to move up for Big Ben but instead made the move to get Losman, he criticized the team for moving up to get him. It is is irrelevant that the turned out to be correct that the move to get Losman was a bad one -- the point is that the team did exactly what he was suggesting, which was to move up to get a QB ranked as a first round prospect.

I am not buying that Tyrod does not like (or is incapable of) throwing to his tight ends. While Clay was certainly under-utilized most of the season, I wonder how much of that had to do with health (he had nagging injuries early on), and the absence of Watkins from the lineup. Notice that once Sammy made it back on the field late in the season, Clay's production stepped up dramatically. In fact, he was one of the most productive TEs in the NFL during the final few weeks of the season. Pairing him with another versatile TE has to be a good thing.

The two "signings" are for very different types of players. DiMarco is a run blocking FB. Tolbert is a goal line power back. He's the guy to come in on 3rd and 1 or 4th and 1 plays.

Have to imagine that Klein, who filled in nicely for Kuechley last year under McD and can play all LB positions, is a FA priority.

It sounds like Hoyer is no longer in the picture. Given that EJ is gone, the team still needs to acquire another QB. I fully expect them to draft another QB if they don't do anything else with the position in free agency. That doesn't mean taking one in the 1st round, though.

Fair enough. Or, noting that Wagner is known for his pass blocking skills, the team may be working toward the transition from the mobile Tyrod to a more pure pocket passer. Whomever that may be...

Odd that the Bears seem so interested in him. I actually thought Matt Barkley looked decent for the Bears late in the year. Not saying that Barkley is all that -- but is Glennon really THAT much of an upgrade?

Never mind... I see that he did play some for the Bears in 2014, so he does have 3 accrued seasons.

If I am not mistaken (and someone please correct me if I am wrong), doesn't Groy only have a total of 2 accrued seasons? If that is the case, wouldn't he be an Exclusive Rights Free Agent rather than a Restricted Free Agent? If he is an Exclusive Rights Free Agent, that means that he CANNOT sign with another team since the Bills have provided him with an offer.

The extra year for players drafted in the 1st round will lead to teams wanting to draft QBs with a 2nd round grade late in the 1st round. That is why it is likely we will see any team in QB need (Jets/49ers/Browns, etc.) who did not address the need with the top 10 selection try to trade back into the latter half of the 1st round. Barring a trade with the Browns for Tyrod (and whatever the Bills would get in exchange), all of those QB needy teams would have more to offer in a trade-up situation than the Bills. That is why the Bills would either need to trade DOWN (like they did back in 2013) or bite the bullet and take Mahomes at 10 if they really believe he has a chance to be a franchise QB.

I honestly believe that McD was being forthright this week when he said that the team had yet to reach a final decision on Tyrod. The coaches' analysis likely mirrors the consensus on Tyrod: he is NOT a franchise QB (and likely never will be), but the team can win with him if other pieces are in place. The sad fact of the matter is that even middling NFL QBs are VERY hard to find -- and even if Tyrod plays under his existing contract it is NOT a horrible deal for an adequate NFL QB. That leaves a number of questions yet to be answered: 1. Are there any serious better alternatives available (Romo)? 2. Is a restructure that can save the team money still possible? 3. Assuming no restructure, can the team downgrade a bit (Foles, Simien, Glennon, etc.) and at the same time save enough $ to make it worthwhile? 4. What is the analysis of the QBs coming out in this draft? 5. Is there a possibility that other QBs that we have not considered may be available? 6. Is there a chance of working a trade with another team that likes Tyrod? The situation truly is fluid. One thing I absolutely do not believe is that they would be willing to cut ties with Tyrdod without a serious contingency plan in place.

The last CBA in 2011 changed that a bit. There are 3 tenders now for RFA's: Right of First Refusal, Right of First Refusal + 2nd Round Draft pick, and Right of First Refusal + 1st round draft pick. The reported $4-5 M offer would certainly be a 1st round qualifier.

IMDB recently did the same thing. At least they warned the user community about it.