2003Contenders

In 2015 it was Bryce Petty. LOL

I am in no way defending Russ as it relates to football decisions he was a part of... However, guys in the know back then told me that even though he was the de facto GM in 2008/2009, Russ pretty much left all of the heavy lifting in the drafts to Tom Modrak. Modrak did not especially like the limelight and preferred staying down in Florida, as opposed to Brandon who was a Buffalo guy through-and-through and loved getting all the attention he could get. I am told that Brandon's involvement in day-to-day operations, scouting, the draft, etc. has always been over-stated. While Russ was willing to serve as the face of the franchise back them he relied on Modrak to handle the scouting and run the War Room at draft time. In fact, the 2008 draft in particular was all Modrak (he LOVED Leodis). Dick Jauron reportedly had a greater say in the 2009 draft, and it was Jauron who was allowed to overrule Modrak on that first round pick of Maybin (Jauron REALLY wanted an "edge rusher") over the guy that Modrak wanted (Brian Cushing) with the 11th overall pick (not the 9th as I misstated above). Modrak was so incensed about this that he wasted little time leaking his preference for Cushing to the press the next day. Still, Russ deserves the blame for allowing these things to happen under his watch. Also under his watch: 1. Low-balling and then trading Jason Peters 2. Signing Fitz to an inflated contract at a time when Fitz was on a hot streak -- and believing that Fitz was the "answer" 3. Extending Dick Jauron's contract I am so glad that Russ has been relegated to doing what he does best: team marketing.

Let's not forget that Russ also oversaw the 2009 draft as well, which gave us... A. Maybin ninth overall!

It makes sense that the plan regarding the move-down last season centered on the acquisition of the extra 2018 1st round pick and the possibility that this extra pick would provide the team with the necessary capital to move up and take a bona fide franchise QB in the draft. However, it is unlikely that OBD really thought they would be picking in the 20's with their own pick in 2018, which makes the ability to move up THAT high much more difficult than expected. If we assume that they do everything they can to move up to get the guy of their choice -- and rumors are that they are already working the phone lines as we speak -- and they are UNABLE to finding a willing trade partner, then I am OK with the team essentially trading one of those first rounders to move back into the 2nd round AND get an extra 1st rounder next year. Essentially they would be postponing what they planned to do in 2018 for one more year. Meanwhile, these trades are very common as teams picking in the 2nd round try to get into the first to gain that extra year of eligibility before the player hits free agency.

The 2016 sweep was largely because of the Bills' horrific run defense that allowed Ajayi to rush for well over 200 yards in both games. Tannehill did very little in the first game and did not play at all in the second. Meanwhile, Taylor had his best passing game as a pro in that second game. Aside from those two games, Tyrod is 4-0 against the Dolphins (with and without Tannehill). I am more than ready to see Tyrod go, but there is no way I would say that he is inferior to Tannehill.

Uh, they didn't pay Cordy?

Well, two years ago Cousins did lead the Redskins into the playoffs in a pretty tough division. The Redskins made some horrific off-season moves in which they let go of his top two receivers (Garcon and Jackson) and replaced them with garbage. His favorite target (TE Jordan) was out most of the year. The running game was non-existent, as the team was down to their 3rd string RB by season's end. Yet, despite all of these issues, Cousins still managed to pass for well over 4,000 yards and 27 TD passes -- plus 4 rushing TDs, the same number as the highly mobile Tyrod. Imagine what Cousins could do with a weapon like Shady in the backfield?

The going rate for a starting QB is what it is. Jimmy G just signed a contract that will pay him about $27.5 M per season. Kirk Cousins is going to sign a contract that will put him in the same stratosphere. For those complaining about the $ it would cost to bring in Cousins, think about this: last year the Bears payed nearly $15 M for Mike Glennon. Yes, Mike Glennon -- and then they traded up a spot to draft Trubisky high in the first round AFTER signing him. If the Bills elect to move on from Tyrod, who will cost about $16 M in 2018 if they keep him, they will have to spend about that much money for even a "bridge QB" (Bradford or whomever) in ADDITION to the dead money for releasing/trading Tyrod. Realize also that the cap can be navigated by smart pencil-pushers. For example, there is some dead money (e.g. the un-amortized $ for Dareus and hypothetically speaking Tyrod) that will clear the books after 2018, meaning that the Cousins contract can be structured to push much of the cap hit BEYOND 2018. And the Pegulas' have the deep pockets to pay the contract in such a way that an up-front signing bonus (which can be spread out over the life of the contract) can help negate the 2018 cap impact. That is why I am on board with Plan A being a full court press to attract Cousins -- which will also allow the team to hang onto all four of their picks in the first two rounds, none of which would have to be devoted to a QB pick. That's four players that could hopefully be immediate contributors at a controlled cost. The controlled cost for the 4 players also helps to negate the $ that would have had to be spent in free agency at those respective positions and further mitigates the $ spent on Cousins.

I hear ya, but there is no denying that Gaines made a huge impact on the defense last year. Just look at the team's record in games he played versus games he didn't.

Honestly, if the Bills really are unable to trade up to get a franchise guy and the best they can do in free agency is Keenum, I could live with hanging onto Tyrod AND drafting Lamar Jackson.

I don't pretend to know how any of these QBs will translate to the NFL, but just the fact that as many as 6 appear to be legitimate first rounders (Darnold, Rosen, Allen, Mayfield, Jackson, Rudolph), I feel a little better about the possibility of a decent option still being there at 21 without having to trade up. And, if there is a guy that the scouts like head and shoulders over the remaining 3-4 (after the first couple are drafted early), the Bills should be able to trade up without having to give away the farm.

I understand the speculation about the Colts possibly trading Luck: 1. When McDaniels took over in Denver, the first thing he did was trade Cutler for draft picks and acquired Orton. So there is precedent for a move like this. His mentor did the same thing in his gigs in Cleveland (Bernie Kozar) and New England (Drew Bledsoe). 2. The Colts have the #3 overall pick. They can certainly draft a top QB option in this year's draft PLUS have the extra picks acquired in the Luck trade to build around the young QB and the rest of the team. That said, if Luck truly is healthy, I have a hard time seeing the Colts trade him. Furthermore, if he is healthy, there would likely be other suitors with better draft picks to offer in exchange.

So many things to consider... First, the Bills are in a bit of a catch 22 because they have no assurance of what QBs will be available to them in the draft (whether they trade up or not). Moreover, since free agency starts almost 2 months before the draft, their Plan A would have to be based on chronology rather than desire. Hence, Plan A would be to sign a proven starting QB in free agency (Cousins, Alex Smith, whichever Viking QB is available, etc.) with part of that plan to also include drafting a long-term QB. Plan B would be in the event that the team is unable to sign a solid veteran in free agency. I would have to think that the plan would then be to go all out for Darnold/Mayfield/whichever QB they prefer in the draft. In the event that they are unable to draft the QB of choice, then I think that is where Plan C comes in. In that case, I would look to draft BPA at QB (Jackson, White, Faulk or whomever) in the appropriate round in the hopes of catching lightening in the bottle -- and also bringing in the best option still available in free agency. That could mean hanging on to Tyrod. That's why I would not get rid of Tyrod WITHOUT having a better option under contract first.

I will say this: if they really do believe that Darnold or Rosen (or whomever) legitimately projects to be a franchise QB, then they should do whatever it takes to move up for him. My guess is that will be hard to do, since so many other teams picking in the top 5 also have a real need for a QB. First, I hope that if they do try hard to move up for a certain guy and are unable to make that move, then they do not panic and trade up for another QB "just because". That is the mistake they made in 2004, when they thought they had a deal in the works to move up to Houston's spot and take Ben Roethlisberger. When Houston backed out and the Bills were unable to get in front of Pittsburgh to get Big Ben, Donahoe panicked and instead traded up for JP Losman. Uggg! I also hope they are not dead-set on taking a QB in the first round even if they believe that the draft class is weak -- a la 2013 when no QB coming out that year had a first round grade and they selected EJ anyway banking on upside. The world does not end if they can't land the QB they covet. There will be some guys available in the free agent market -- and it is smarter to build up the rest of the roster than significantly overpay for a questionable rookie QB. Obviously the free agency period, which opens in about 6 weeks, will give us a strong clue as to what the Bills will do in the draft. Depending on whom (if anyone) they acquire and what they give up (both potentially in terms of draft picks as well as $ paid to the veteran QB).

Funny enough there was a segment on ESPN with Danny Kennell that focused on this issue. The discussion centered around the great pump fake that Foles demonstrated in the NFC Championship game on Sunday. Kennell mentioned that Foles has some of the biggest hands in the NFL -- well over 10". He then talked about the big hands being a nice attribute for cold weather QBs and that Kelly, Bradshaw and Favre all had great success throwing the ball in cold weather because of their big hands -- and that QBs like Dan Fouts struggled when playing in the cold weather. He also added that having big hands is imperative for QBs who do a lot of pump fakes -- and that is one reason why you do not see Brady do many pump fakes: he has small hands (by NFL QB standards) at 9 3/8". Hand-size is certainly a factor to consider -- especially for Buffalo where the need is heightened because of the weather late in the season. But it is silly to place too much emphasis on it as they did when drafting EJ Manuel.

Apparently, MM was offended that some school teacher saw his kid's last name and asked if he was related to the "soon-to-be ex-coach of the Tennessee Titans". Oh, wait...

My first choice would be to sign Kirk Cousins in FA if he truly becomes available. Doing that would obviously cost a ton of $, but would also alleviate the need to draft one in the early rounds this year. Instead those picks could be used to bolster the lines and other areas. That IMHO would be the best case scenario and almost certainly leads to a better 2018 product on the field. If Cousins is not available (and assuming no serious franchise QB is likely to be on the board at 21/22), then I honestly do not believe that there is another realistic option -- based on age, experience, skill, etc. -- available in free agency that would "solve" the QB issue for the long-term. So I would try to work the phones in hopes of using the heavy 2018 draft capital to move up for a franchise QB in the draft. If this happens, then I would like to see a journeyman veteran (Bradford, McCown, Moore, etc.) come in to help mold the rookie. If legitimate options do not present themselves to trade up for a franchise guy, then I pray that the team does not over-reach for a lesser guy. Instead, there is no reason we can't push the draft capital back another year. That is, 21 and 22 are prime spots for teams who want to move up from the 2nd round to get that 6th year option on a player in the later part of the 1st round. Such a move would move one of our first rounders back to the 2nd round -- but garner another later 2018 pick in addition to an extra 2019 1st. In that scenario, you still draft a QB in 2018 if/when the value dictates AND acquire a second-tier QB that can start for a couple of years (Alex Smith or whomever). So in summary: 1. Sign Cousins; only draft a QB if BPA in given round 2. Package picks to trade up for Rossen/Darnold/whomever; sign inexpensive veteran to mentor and possibly start early in the season 3. Sign a serviceable starting QB in FA (like Alex Smith); draft BPA QB; trade down with one of our 1st round picks to get an extra picks this year plus 1st rounder in 2019 and hope for a better shot at a franchise guy in 2019

I am not sure how accurate or meaningful this stat is. However, I would not be surprised. The WR corps remains a weak link for the team -- and was confounded by injuries to both Matthews and KB. Although Benjamin managed to play through his bum knee, clearly his speed was grotesquely diminished -- and he was hardly ever able to get any separation. Meanwhile, Tyrod's propensity for locking onto receivers and waiting until they came open rather than throwing with anticipation would have also been a factor in the receivers' separation stats. The team clearly needs an upgrade at both WR and QB positions -- which goes without saying and is hardly refutable. Hopefully a healthy KB and Matthews (if re-signed) in 2018 will make a difference.

There are different levels/types of intelligence. A scientist or policy-maker may have a high IQ but may need time to analyze information at hand before moving forward. Meanwhile, with lives at stake, a surgeon has to be able to make good decisions quickly. The same is true of police officers, firemen, etc. Tyrod has shown repeatedly that he struggles to make proper decisions quickly. That does not mean that he is "dumb" -- just that the way in which his brain is wired, he is more calculating in his decision-making process than is required to be a successful QB at the NFL level. No one doubts Ryan Fitzpatrick's IQ -- but he often made poor decisions on the fly. At least he was usually quick in making those decisions (good or bad). After all, Jim Kelly wasn't the sharpest tool in the shed, but he was great at reading a defense and making quick (and usually "intelligent") decisions.

The problem with Gailey was that he never really saw himself as anything other than a glorified OC. He said as much in his inaugural press conference, when he said he would hire an OC who would have the the job in title only since he would call all the plays. He then went on to say that he would hire a DC that he specifically wanted to run a 3-4 -- but that the DC would NOT be a "household name". That guy turned out to be George Edwards who was in over his head at that point in his career. I believe that McD is more of a true CEO. Yes, his expertise is on the defensive side of the ball, but he appears to have a lot of faith in a veteran coordinator like Frazier to actually manage the D. Based on what we heard in the press conference yesterday, it sounds like he is weighing his options at the OC position.

OK, you have made this point like a half dozen times in this thread, and it may very well be true. The undesirable dead cap money for Dareus is more a product of the poor contract that the prior regime signed him to when his bargaining leverage was at an all time high (coming off a season when the entire DL was loaded) and without any safe-guards against off-field issues and on-field lack of motivation AFTER signing the big contract. That said, let's not over-exaggerate the cap ramifications. While the trade hurts the cap in 2018 (in the sense that he takes up cap space while playing elsewhere), the reality is that getting rid of Dareus saved the team over $54 M in cap money (not to mention REAL money) over the next few years. The trade saved the team over $5 M this past year, over $7 M in 2018 and $47+ M from 2019-2021. The fact that the Jags were willing to eat that AND cough up draft compensation is actually a good thing for the financial (both from a monetary standpoint as well as a cap standpoint) future of the team. The saved $ also gives the Pegulas and the team additional leverage in constructing contracts (if they desire) that pay larger up-front bonuses to help circumvent the cap. Hopefully the team will be smart in the manner that they do this, as the Dareus situation represents a cautionary tale. Regarding Dareus himself... in Sunday's game, I recall one big play in which he tackled McCoy for a loss. He was otherwise fairly quiet. The Jags largely elected to take him off the field on passing downs -- and it is not as if he has been the missing piece of puzzle that got the Jags into the playoffs. Their defense was elite before he got there -- and they have remained elite. The Bills defense did a pretty good job Sunday too without him, didn't they? It really is a shame because MD certainly has the talent to warrant the 3rd overall pick and the large contract he ultimately signed. The new regime simply tired of his inconsistent effort and elected to move on AND vacate over $54M of dedicated cap/cash for essentially a part-time player. So, while he may take up the 3rd highest cap hit by NOT being here, he will still cost less even n 2018 than he would have cost if he were still here saddling the team with the future contract obligation. That savings are -- as I said -- over $7M in real money (and $2M in cap money) in 2018. Something tells me that McD and Beane will find someone who provides similar/better production at the position with the remaining $ that was cleared in 2018 (and beyond).

I see no way that the Bills enter the season with Peterman as the starter. While he may still develop into a meaningful player down the line, he was given multiple opportunities to take over the reigns this season and failed miserably in each situation: 1. Starting in San Diego... We all saw how that worked out. 2. Relieving Tyrod in the first New England game... where he failed to get the ball into the endzone. 3. Starting against the Colts. He managed to lead a late 1st half TD drive, but in the 2nd half knocked himself out of the game by making a foolish decision to take on a LB rather than slide. 4. Sunday he had a legitimate shot at tying the game but instead threw the game clinching INT. Again, I am not saying that he should be kicked to the curb. After all, Alex Smith started his career with a 1-11 TD-INT ratio I believe. In fact, if the team could bring in Alex Smith to start for a year or two, it would be a nice boost to Peterman (who shares similar traits), I believe. In fact, I would like to see the front office bring in a veteran (Smith, Bradford or whomever), draft a QB early without over-spending draft capital (UNLESS they believe that can acquire a legitimate FRANCHISE QB by trading up) AND hang on to Peterman. Then Peterman and the rookie battle it out to see who is the QB2 going into the season. The other is QB3.

Bingo! Also, Tyrod being an incapable starting QB and Dennison being an incompetent play-caller may not necessarily be mutually exclusive. We have seen enough of Tyrod to know that the first statement is true; I would be willing to give Dennison a shot with a competent NFL QB before running him out of town.

If the team's scouts and front office truly believe that there is a "can't miss" QB in this draft, they you give up what is necessary to get him. That said, I absolutely do not want them taking a QB in the first round (trading up or otherwise) just for the sake of taking a QB. That is what they did the last two times that they drafted one in the first round (Losman and EJ).

You are missing the obvious -- which is not necessarily backed up by statistically comparing Shady's production to that of the other RBs on the team: when Shady is on the field he becomes the focal point of the defense. That is not true when the other RBs take the field. Taking Shady off the field, may lead to reasonable production for the fill-in backs, since they do not draw as much attention from the opposing defenders -- but it also means that the passing game will be hindered more with greater focus on stopping Tyrod and the passing game. Exhibit A: The Cowboys were without Zeke E.'s services for 6 weeks. Idiot pundits pointed out that Alfred Morris had similar production to Zeke in Zeke's absence. But guess what? Defenses were not as worried about stopping Morris as they were Zeke, so Morris saw fewer stacked boxes, and opposing defenses were better able to better defend against the pass. So, while the running game kept pace, it was Dak Prescott and the passing game that suffered immeasurably.