2003Contenders

This is similar to what Gil Brandt has been saying. He has not released his top 100 yet (to my knowledge), but he said there are about 15-20 legitimate first round talent guys -- and that very little separates the guys in the next tier, say 20th thru 70th. That is why as much as I would love to get a franchise QB, I do NOT think it is the end of the world if Beane is unable to make that move up to get "his" guy. If 4-5 QBs do go early, then the Bills have a great shot at landing two bona fide difference-makers at 12 and 22 at other positions of need (OL, DL, WR, LB). Then with three more picks between there and 65, they can load up on other potential starters. In talking about trading up for a franchise QB, I have to say that I get the impression that, unlike the Jets who appear to be OK with any of their top 2-3 rated QBs, Beane has a particular guy he is targeting. If he can make the move to trade up to get him, I think he does. If he can't, then I don't think the team will overpay to grab one of the "consolation prize" QBs.

You know this is a McD kind of guy... Wrestling champ.

I keep going back to the throw-away comment that Beane made at the Combine, when he said that there were "6 -- maybe 7" QBs who would go in the first round. Obviously he was talking about the Big 4, Rudolph and Jackson as the 6. I wonder if Lauletta was "maybe 7".

This is interesting given that a couple of days ago there were reports that the Browns were planning on taking Allen #1 over all. I think so much of this discussion from various executives about the Bills' plans stems from the likelihood that Beane has been speaking with multiple teams (including the Giants) about moving up in the draft. I still find it hard to believe that the Giants are on board with moving down from 2 to 12. I suppose they COULD use the bevvy of picks extorted from Buffalo to move back up a few spots if they want. But they may decide to place that onus on the Bills FIRST. That said, I would not be surprised if one of the following is a possibility: 1. Gettleman and Beane have a handshake deal in place: If the Bills can get to 5-7, then the Giants are willing to trade down 3-5 spots with the Bills. 2. The Giants draft a QB at 2, then they look to see if there is a player that they truly like when the Bills do pick (at 12 or wherever). If such a player exists, they trade the Bills the QB they drafted at #2 in exchange for the Bills pick plus additional first/second round picks that the Bills still have in their arsenal. This would be an inverse of what the Giants did to acquire Eli back in 2004. Of course, the Giants could just decide to draft the guy they covet at #2 and refuse to make any trade. So many things could happen between now and the day of the draft -- and especially DURING the draft. Beane is just trying to account for multiple possibilities.

It just takes one team -- no, make that ONE person in the decision-making role for a team -- to fall in love with him and draft him higher than the pundits believe he should go. FWIW, he is scheduled to have a visit with the Browns in a few days.

Somehow I am finding it harder and harder to visualize Rosen and McD being able to co-exist, but I could be wrong.

It also helps when your daddy was a Super Bowl winning QB. LOL

Where's the most obvious one of all? Juice?

I doubt it. But who knows? These days the Bills' brass has done an exceptional job of keeping everything under wraps. That said, I don't think the Browns inclination to take Allen (or whomever) at #1 has any bearing on what they believe the Bills may do. After all, as of now, the Bills are picking at #12, right? Also, the last several QBs that the Browns drafted were AFTER they had already drafted one or more players that year: Kizer, Kessler, Manziel, Weeden, Quinn, Frye... going all the way back to Couch. Something tells me that Dorsey wants to set a new tone by making a statement and drafting the QB of choice with the #1 pick overall.

If I am Denver I do not make that trade unless I am getting both 12 and 22 from the Bills. Then if I am the Giants, given what the Jets paid to go from 6 to 3, I would be looking for something similar from the Bills to go from 5 to 2. That probably means both 2's this year and #1 next year (given that the Bills' 2's are substantially later than the Jets'). So, that means 12, 22, 53, 56 AND the 2019 first rounder to move up to 2. That is a lot of premium picks.

Did anyone else catch the odd mistake he made when talking about his first game as a pro. Leaf said he vividly remembered playing against Steve Young and the 49ers. Wrong! That first game came in San Diego against our very own Buffalo Bills. It was also Rob Johnson's first game as a Bill and proved to be a harbinger of things to come, as RJ was knocked out of the game. Flutie (also in his first action as a Bill) came in off the bench and ALMOST pulled the game out. That was 20 years ago, of course, and maybe Leaf truly did "mis-remember". However, the Bills also played the NFC West that season (their first victory of the season, in fact, came in an upset victory over the Niners). So Leaf (and the rest of the AFC West) would not have played against the NFC West in 1998, which means that Leaf didn't even play the 49ers AT ALL in his rookie season. Maybe he played against Young and the 49ers in the preseason that year, which was not the implication I got. Of maybe he is just full of bull.

I wonder if the mom-agent weirdness and his refusal to whiteboard with teams will cause him to fall to the 2nd round.

Jim Drunkenmiller. Dude had a cannon but no touch. Constantly was breaking WRs fingers, etc. The guy was a tool, thought all of that was funny. Easy to see why he never panned out.

Honestly, if the top 4 QBs all go in the top 5 like that (which certainly is a possibility), then the good news is that the Bills will be taking a top 8 overall pick at a non-QB position at 12 (depending on what they think of Jackson and Rudolph). They could even potentially trade up a couple of spots if they need to get a top 5 guy (Chubb, Nelson, Smith, for example), at one of those spots without giving up more than a 2nd or 3rd rounder. I laugh at all of the fans that are DEMANDING that the Bills trade up for one of those top 4 QBs. There are multiple factors in the equation. Can the Bills find a team willing to trade down? And if so, what will it cost? Let's remember that the team has a number of other big needs right now. MLB, WR, OL (both interior and exterior), DL (both interior and exterior) besides depth elsewhere. If there is a trade to be made for one of these top 4 QBs (or, better yet, should one of them fall) then that is great. However, if the draft goes as Kiper has it going, it is hard to complain about using the picks we have to address other areas. I don't doubt that, say, Rosen/Mayfield > McCarron. However, I do not think that the team as a whole will look better with Rosen/McCarron vs McCarron + improvements at WR, MLB and OL/DL. Or, for that matter, Rosen/McCarron vs Jackson/Rudolph + improvements at WR, MLB and OL/DL. And if they do give up multiple high picks to trade up they had BETTER be right or lucky (from a health perspective).

I don't know necessarily about the weakest arm (but probably weaker than the top 4 guys), but Rudolph's hands did measure in at just 9". Gil Brandt talked about this on NFL Sirius radio a few days ago when asked why a QB as prolific in college as Rudolph (who Brandt BELIEVES will be a starter at the NFL level) is not as highly sought after as the top 4 guys. He said the biggest issue was his hand-size and that only one QB in the last 15 years had been drafted early in the first round with such small hands. That QB was Jared Goff. Brandt also pointed out that Goff went to a warm weather team in LA, whereas the QB-needed teams picking at the top this year (including Buffalo, given they have the ammunition to move up) are all cold weather teams (Cleveland, Jersey, Denver, Buffalo) where having larger hands to handle the ball is a premium. He went on to suggest that Rudolph otherwise checks off everything on the list, but the smallish hands and possibly lower ceiling than some of the higher-rated QBs could make him fall to the 2nd round. Then after discussing all of this, he laughed and pointed out that Mayfield too had small hands -- just 1/4" bigger than Rudolph's. Meanwhile, Allen has huge hands (well over 10") .

I think they guy they covet REALLY is Allen. The problem is that he is likely the guy that the Browns like too.

Well, with all of the newly acquired picks that they have between the Bills and Jets, they could very easily move back up a couple of spots if there was a guy they really wanted that they did not expect to still be on the board at 12. They know also that the Bills would be taking a QB at 6, a position that the Colts would not be targeting there. So they could move back up to, say, 9 or 10 if they wanted to without having to give up more than one of the 2nd rounders they got from the Jets and still get a top 5-6 guy at a non-QB position. Last week Peter king said that the Colts were making it no secret that they are looking to move down again and acquire more picks. He suggested that the Bills #53 and #96 might be enough to get it done. But with this inflated trade market, who knows?

My biggest fear about Rosen (in addition to his durability) is that I worry that he may not be the type that eats-breaths-and-sleeps football. This is a guy who may not be in the game for the long haul. Not saying that this is a verdict, but I hope that if the Bills really do like him and intend to draft him they confirm that he has the burning desire to be around the game for a decade or more.

In addition to trying to toy with the Giants and potentially extort a pick or two from them, it is certainly possible that the Browns could also be playing games with the players' agents. The Browns did the same thing back in 1999, when Tim Couch was the apple of their eye. They suggested right up until draft day that Akili Smith was also in play at #1 overall. The Browns never had any serious interest in Smith but just wanted to present the threat of looking elsewhere for the #1 overall pick as part of a negotiation tactic with Couch's people. I know the advent of the Rookie cap and slotting helps to ease some of the negotiating process, but things like signing bonuses and guaranteed money are still in play. Remember that the Browns met with Darnold's family and agent last week. That was very highly publicized. We dd not hear nearly as much about who all they met with in Wyoming on Friday.

For those still angry with McD for tarting Peterman in that Charger game... Part of the decision-making there I still believe was to get a better idea of what the team had in Peterman. To see if he could potentially be an upgrade over Tyrod and possibly even the future of the franchise. The fact that he crapped the bed easily answered those questions. Imagine if he had not started that game and all we had to go by was preseason and occasional mop-up duty. There would probably some folks still wondering seriously whether he is "the answer". I don't think even his biggest supporters around here are calling for that. I am not saying the book is out on him and that he can;t improve, but the odds of him being more than a career backup do not look good at this point.

Well, with all the ammunition they already have (plus whatever the Bills give them in the trade-up), the Browns could still move back into the top 10 if they so desire.

This bit about Beane liking Allen going into 2017 is interesting -- and could be the basis for the connection between Allen and the Bills. Remember that Allen was coming off a strong 2016 campaign. However, his numbers plummeted (for a variety of reasons) in 2017. It is quite possible that Beane and the scouts do not like Allen nearly as much now as they did in the fall.

I am waiting for fans to freak out when one of the top 4 slides (Allen?) and is eventually taken AFTER a QB who is not projected to be among the top 4 (Jackson?)

Reasonable thoughts, I think. I certainly prefer the top 4 guys and hope the Bills are able to land one of them, but assuming that a trade up is not feasible... The thing I like about Rudolph is that he throws the ball with anticipation really well. He has an average NFL arm but appears to have good instincts and is a natural QB (as opposed to someone like EJ who had all the physical talent you could ever want but never seemed comfortable playing QB). The hyperbole in the thread comparing Rudolph to Tom Brady is silly, but in a way I do get the comparison from a physical stand-point. Coming into the league Brady had mediocre arm strength and was a poor athlete. However, his accuracy, competitive fire, and strive for perfection is what has made him what he is. A guy like Rudolph can succeed in the NFL if he truly eats, breathes and sleeps football. Rudolph figures to be what the Bills were expecting (hoping) Peterman's upside could be. As you mentioned, Cousins likely represents that upside. I keep going back and forth about Jackson. I like that he is a special athlete and played in Petrino's NFL offense at Louisville. He is a better passer than some observers give him credit for being. I am not overly worried that he likes to run with the ball, given his natural speed an elusiveness. However, I am worried that he has a lanky frame. I suppose proper conditioning could enable him to physically get bigger -- especially his legs. Still, there is a good chance that he could suffer the same fate as RG3, given the similar physique and reckless running style.

The "value" of picks in the first round get exponentially smaller the later you go in the round. That's why it costs more to move up, say, from 6 to 3 than it does to move up, say, 27 to 10. Then there is the notion of supply and demand. For a variety of reasons there was significantly less hype surrounding the QBs than there has been this year.