2003Contenders

Not saying that I agree with him, but I think the grading is based on the quality/expected longevity of the coaching staff. The "situation" may also imply plans beyond 2018. He seems to be saying that Dabol is a quality OC and that the front office/coaching staff have likely stability/continuity going forward. Despite fans who are understandably unhappy with the 2-5 start and performance of the team, I believe that ownership and the front office expected the team to struggle in 2018 and that McB are all on steady footing going into 2019. The team also understands that Allen is raw and are willing to be patient with him. The ineptitude at the receiver position is obvious and will likely be improved upon next season. It is hard to argue that Rosen is not in an even worse situation than Allen. For heaven''s sake, they just fired their OC a few days ago. The Cardinals have more quality receiving targets, but their OL is even worse than ours, and the defense is not likely to help keep the Cardinals in close games. Cleveland has more talent surrounding Mayfield, but the coaching situation is in flux. It is hard to imagine Hue and Haley staying out of each other's way the entire season. Not sure how he can suggest that Darnold is in a worse situation given the supporting cast, coaching -- and even having a dedicated QB mentor on hand. I guess they are going back to the job security of Todd Bowles, which was rumored to be on shaky ground in the pre-season.

I still believe that even the most pro-Allen coaches understood that there would be a learning period for him and that he would be best-served sitting and watching for a season. That said there were some serious flaws in their planning: -- They had more faith in McCarron than they should have. Beane more or less acknowledged this. That is why they jumped at the trade offer from the Raiders. Still, they should have had the sense to bring in a viable veteran to replace him. -- They honestly believed that Nate Peterman would be serviceable while Allen sat. Anderson ostensibly puts them back in the position that the were originally in with McCarron -- and they probably should have reached out to him back when the McCarron trade occurred. I would suspect that as long as Anderson wins (or at least looks competent in losing), he will remain the starter -- even after Allen gets the clean bill of health. If/when Anderson starts stinking things up -- or we get late into the season and the Bills have been officially eliminated from playoff contention -- Allen gets back on the field.

Well, there is ample evidence to substantiate the claim that EJ was a Buddy pick. 1. It was in keeping with Buddy's philosophy that the team would take -- even if it meant reaching -- the player they liked best at the position they most wanted to fill. This was best exemplified in Nix's first draft as GM. Recall that new Head Coach Chan Gailey reportedly wanted a "June Bug" type RB for his offense. So what did Buddy do? He takes CJ Spiller, viewed by many at the time as a luxury pick with a top 10 selection. Chan had also made the random decision to shift to a 3-4 defense, even though the personnel did not fit. So what does Nix do? After missing out on a bona fide NT option in the first round, he panics and reaches badly for T. Troupe in the 2nd. And that was with many other quality player (like Gronk) still on the draft board. 2. We have the recorded prank call where the prank caller pretends to be the Tampa Bay GM. In that call, Nix admits that he is planning on drafting a QB -- but also acknowledges that the QB class was so weak that it was not the year to do that. Even in answering questions from the press he keeps saying that even though the QB class is projected to be weak, history has shown that 1-2 franchise QBs come out of every class. On draft day, the team trades down from 8 to 16 and eventually takes EJ with that 16th pick. If they really loved him, there is no way they would have risked losing out on him by trading down to the middle of round. I never thought that trading up for Sammy proved any kind of justification for the EJ pick. Rather, the team was trying to upgrade the young QB's supporting cast, which is only common sense. I would expect the Bills F/O to do the same next season, even if Beane/McD were no longer in the picture. Also, as others have suggested, the trade come very well have been a "splash" marketing move forced by Russ.

Bodine was actually WORSE in the preseason than Groy. Oh well. Let's hope for the best.

Bingo. No one (even Allen's biggest supporters in the draft process) claimed that he was going to be a 100% finished product from day one. Something tells me that if Allen matures and shows clear progression with his mechanics and completion % that we will not hear much from this Ledyard clown. Conversely, every time Allen struggles Ledyard will post something to remind us yet again why he was "right" about Allen not being a worthy NFL QB prospect. The fact that this dude does such a thing before the 2-3 year window it takes to reach a fair evaluation of a drafted player's true capacity tells us all we need to know about he little he really knows.

Actually, in watching the game on Sunday, I thought that Beuerlein was pretty good in pointing out things that Allen does well and the things that he really needs to improve on, which is no surprise given that this was Allen's first-ever start. The gist I got from his analysis of the game was that Buerlein believes that all of the flaws displayed by the rookie QB were correctable and that he believes Allen has a great deal of potential.

Interesting... didn't Mattews say that the Eagles' doctors failed him by not diagnosing certain injuries that were later uncovered and treated by the Bills' medical staff?

Excellent points. I am most encouraged by the simple fact that Allen did not wilt under pressure. That is, he looked beyond the pass rush and kept his eyes downfield. He certainly needs to become more accurate and work on getting the ball out of his hand more quickly -- but those are common traits that take time to develop. I just hope that Dabol and the rest of the coaching staff have what it takes to help the kid reach his potential. It would also help if the supporting cast would step up. I would not shed a tear if Andre Holmes was cut tomorrow, for example.

There was plenty to like and plenty to dislike in the performance yesterday. The sample size is simply too small to come up with a genuine evaluation going forward. And guess, what? That sample size will still be too small after next week and the week after. The kid is going to need time to develop -- not only because he is a rookie and everyone needs to be patient, but because he also has a horrible supporting cast. I look back at our last two first-round QBs. 1. Losman. From day one, he never looked ready. The stage seemed too large for him, and he had that proverbial deer-in-the-headlights look. But the arm talent and athleticism seemed to be there, so I kept hoping that over time, he would improve but he never appreciably did. He had flaws (ability to read a defense, poor accuracy, etc.) that he never corrected, and that deer-in-the-headlights syndrome never went away. Say what you will about Allen and any shortcomings he displayed in yesterday's game, but he never had that "Where the heck am I?" look that we saw all to often with Losman. 2. It is easy to forget that EJ actually looked halfway decent in his first two starts (against the Pats and Panthers) respectively. The problem is that those first two games would represent more of a high-water mark for him rather than the start of something great. The QB position is the most unique position in all of sports. You really have to be born to play the position -- all the while improving your craft as you go along. EJ had all of the physical traits and by all accounts he is a bright guy with leadership qualities. But for whatever reason, these ingredients never meshed to make him a natural QB. Everything always seemed so rehearsed and unnatural. Again, with Allen yesterday he did look very natural standing in the pocket. So there is hope. He clearly has all of the physical tools. I also like that he also seemed confident and did not panic while standing in the pocket. If he can correct the deficiencies, then we have something special here. Time will tell whether he will be able to improve in those areas -- but after one, seriously ONE, NFL start it is hard for me to understand why anyone would be CONCERNED. Progress is the key here. As long as we see progression, even if they are baby steps, there is plenty of reason for optimism. Anyone who can't see that either has a silly agenda to root against the kid -- or has unreasonable expectations about what he should be able to do this early in his career.

I was not comparing Allen to Manning, rather suggesting that the Bills (who are talent-deprived in much the same way that the Colts were back in those days) use a similar model to what the Colts used to protect and nurture their young QB.

I know it has been 20 years, but the model I like is the one that the Colts used for Peyton Manning back in 1998. They basically went mass-protection with 2 TEs most of the time with just a young Marvin Harrison and Marshall Faulk as the primary weapons. The offense was simplified, and the Colts avoided having Manning get hammered (and lose his confidence). I would do the same with Allen. Spoon feed him and protect him -- all the while being patient. Then expand the playbook as he develops and builds his confidence.

My guess is that Cris Carter is getting this from analysts who are critical of Allen's set-up. That is, he holds the ball lower (below his shoulder) than most QB coaches like (by his ear). Holding the ball so low is usually an issue for QBs, because it requires an extra hitch (pull-back) in their delivery. However, Josh Allen's arm is so freakishly strong, he does not require that additional hitch -- which actually allows him to get the ball out quicker than a QB using the prescribed set-up would. Dan Marino and Joe Namath also had similar set-ups and both had famously quick deliveries.

Remember, in the Marv Era the Bills would routinely go 0-4 in the preseason. His goal was always to come out of those games injury free. The game against Carolina last week is also a prime example of why you can't read too much into preseason. The Bills lost that game; however, in the first half when the first team (and backups who are likely to make the team) were on the field, they led 17-7. Things changed in the 2nd half when the field was primarily occupied by guys unlikely to make the final cut.

How good is the Colts roster without Luck versus with him? Or the Packers with Rodgers versus without him? Sorting through the Bills' QB position will be the determining factor on how good the "roster" is.

I am not ready to write off Lawson completely, but I think he is what he is. That would be a player with upside to be solid in run support and maintain the edge, which he did well at times last season. Guys like that serve a purpose and belong in a rotation where they usually rack up no more than 6-8 sacks per year. Of course, such players are not necessarily in short supply. What the team REALLY needs is a guy who can get consistent pressure on the QB.

Some random memories of Moulds: -- Was part of that great 1996 WR class that included Keyshawn Johnson, Terrell Owens, Marvin Harrison, Terry Glenn, Isaac Bruce, M. Muhammad, and others. -- Many draft experts considered him to be as physically talented (or more) than the other receivers in the draft class. He was essentially the modern prototype (think Julio Jones) with a large frame and 4.4 speed. However, he had a reputation for being very immature. He once ordered pizza on the sidelines of a game in college. At least one NFL team reportedly had taken him off their board altogether. There were murmurs at the time that Marv did not especially like the pick. -- As a rookie he got to play with Jim Kelly, but saw very little action as a WR. His primary role was as a kick returner. There were reports that he was not quick to pick up the playbook, and Marv was notoriously skeptical of rookies. -- Had a true breakout season in 1998 when Flutie took over the reins at QB. 1999 was also a successful season for him with Flutie. -- He and Peerless Price combined to be one of the most dynamic WR duos in the league during that magical 2002 (half) season when Bledsoe tore it up to become the only QB in Bills history to pass for over 4,000 yards. -- Bledsoe's decline in 2003 and 2004 also played a toll on Moulds and his production. -- The incident that some of you referenced, which involved Ralph flying in to calm things down, happened in 2005. However, it was not about a consecutive catch streak necessarily. It had to do with Moulds' pouting and even refusing to go into a game. The game was at Miami, and at first it looked like possibly a breakout game for JP Losman. Moulds' skills were already on the decline by this point, and the torch had essentially already been passed to Lee Evans. Losman and Evans had hooked up for a number of long bomb TDs to get the Bills out to a big lead over the Dolphins. Moulds was upset that Evans was getting all of the attention and refused to go into the game. There were rumors of other things going on between him and Mularkey at the time, so who knows what all was involved. But the net out is that Moulds refused to go into the game, the Dolphins started rolling coverage Evans' way, and Losman did what he normally did (find a way to lose the game in the 4th quarter). IIRC there were 3-4 games left in the season, and Mularkey decided to suspend Moulds for the remainder of the season. That is when Ralph flew into town, had discussions with Mularkey -- and the benching, I believe, was reduced to just one game. As it would turn out, that time-frame turned out to be a lame duck time for both Mularkey and Moulds. -- Moulds left in the next off-season, and I believe he went to the Texans. He never panned out there. In fact, his weight ballooned and there were even discussions of having him shift to the TE position. Moulds may have physically been finest receiver the Bills ever had. When he was at his best, he was dominant. However, he was never as consistent and great for a long period of time like Andre Reed was. Of course, Moulds was also cursed with having to play with some of the worst QBs that the Bills ever put on the field (Todd Collins, Alex Van Pelt, Billy Joe Holbert, JP Losman, Kelly Holcomb). When he had the benefit of competent QB play (Flutie's years and part of Bledsoe's), he was one of the top WRs in the league.

I stop reading/listening when I hear the Boller comparison to Josh Allen. It is just such a lazy analysis over-simplified because both QBs had strong arms but poor completion % coming out of college. These two are/were VERY different prospects. It is way too early to project whether or not Josh Allen will reach his potential in the NFL, but he was genuinely in the discussion to be the #1 overall pick in the draft. That was never the case with Boller.

Yea, I don't see the EJ comparisons that have been thrown around. I get the cautionary tale about EJ being a quality person, intelligent and having all the physical tools. The problem is that the QB position never came natural for him. There were clear signs of this before he came out, and Jimbo Fisher suggested that he would struggle making it to the next level. I think EJ tried his best, but he never seemed to get beyond the "Let's see, my left foot goes here. My right goes..." It always seemed to me that he was over-thinking the small things that should come without thinking at all. I don't see that with Josh Allen. He was born to play QB, and everything does seem much more fluid and natural for him. I also do not see the "Boom or Bust" analysis that so many lazy draft "experts" have predicted about him. It is true that his up-side is boundless, thanks to his off-the-charts natural talent. However, I don't see the bust potential a la JaMarucus Russell. Russell had a cannon for an arm, but he entered the league completely unmotivated. Remember, he was drafted before the rookie wage scale, so he knew he had tens of millions in guaranteed money from day one. I don't see that in Allen. Allen's accuracy issues are well documented and he will need to adjust to the speed of the game. In all honesty, I am more concerned about the attributes of the Bills coaching staff to get him where he needs to be than I am worried about Allen's attributes. Still, I see Josh Allen's floor as more of a Blake Bortles -- talented but inconsistent -- rather than being a true bust.

I think so too. That said, the "plan" may not result in the same thing that happened with Mahomes last year. That is, the Chiefs were able to keep him firmly planted on the bench for his rookie season with the exception of the meaningless regular season finale at least partly for the following reasons: 1. Alex Smith had a career year as the starter, and he remained helathy 2. The Chiefs were in playoff contention all season and wound up winning the division Hence, there was no rush to get the rookie on the field. And, despite the fact that he looked great in a meaningless game, we have no way of knowing whether or not the coaches felt Mahomes was ready to start at any point during the 2018 season given how well Smith played. The fact that they traded Smith and are going into this season with Mahomes as the starter tells us now they feel he is ready. The Bills situation with Allen looks to be different this season: 1. There is uncertainty about the QBs ahead of him on the depth chart 2. I am hopeful that the team will be in playoff contention, but honest evaluation would indicate otherwise heading into the preseason I would love for McCarron (or Peterman) to step up and be a reliable starting QB this season. Then the Bills can take their time with Allen and avoid the temptation to rush him out on the field before he is ready. However, if McCarron/Peterman struggle and the team feels that Allen represents the best change to either win in 2018 or gain valuable playing experience for 2019 and beyond, I think we could see Josh Allen by mid-season. I am at least happy that the current regime appears to not be making the mistakes that prior regimes made with our last 2 first round QBs: Losman handed the job in year 2 after he had done nothing to deserve it. EJ pressed into the starting job as a rookie because there was no viable starting option ahead of him on the roster.

I think it is reasonable to expect a regression in the record based on a variety of factors. The Bills' Front Office probably expects the same, which is why 2019 draft picks were off the table in any trade-up scenarios. That said, I don't see us being in contention for the #1 overall pick. The defense should be decent (especially if Edmunds makes an immediate impact), and we still have Shady and the running game. The key is going to be how well the offensive live gels and what sort of production we get from the QB position.

His dad LOVES Josh Allen, and was very vocal about how he was in his opinion the hands-down best QB in this draft, worthy of going #1 overall. That is high praise considering how harsh he is grading QBs coming out of college.

I wouldn't worry about it too much. Jim Kelly and Dan Marino were always the bust of buddies off the field (and remain so to this day) -- but when they were on the field it was a different story.

I always have to laugh about how much misinformation is out there about this Super Bowl. In many cases, cloudy memories make us believe things that never happened/didn't happen. Myth 1: The Bills were by far the superior team. I think we as Bills fans too often dismiss that Giants team unfairly. While the Bills were there representing the AFC thanks largely to their high-power offense (they had scored nearly 100 points in the two playoff games against Miami and the Raiders), the Giants were there thanks to their defense. That defense had just held the mighty 49ers offense to 13 points in the NFC Championship game. In fact, the 1990 Giants boasted one of the greatest defenses in NFL history. Their run defense was so fantastic that Belichick purposely decided to essentially play a prevent-defense for the entire game (allowing short patterns, but punishing defenders when they caught the ball), fearing the Bills' downfield passing offense (which had dominated the other 2 playoff games). He wanted to force the Bills to run the ball -- and even told the Giants players before the game that if Thurman Thomas had a big day running the ball, that would mean that the Giants won the game. Myth 2: The Bills passed the ball too much in that game because of Kelly's ego Given the success that the Bills had had in the post-season passing the ball -- and knowing that the Giants' strength was in stopping the run, it makes sense that the Bills came out throwing the ball. But it is unfair to suggest that Kelly was pass-happy. A careful look at the pass-to-run ration shows that the offense threw the ball 30 times and ran it 25 times. That is a pretty balanced attack. The problem is that the passing game was not effective largely due to the defense employed by the Giants. For example, Andre Reed, who was one of the greatest YAC receivers in NFL history only managed 62 yards on 8 receptions -- or barely 8 yards per reception. Rather, than criticize Kelly for being egotistical and insisting on passing the ball, I always felt he did a great job of taking what a dominant defense was willing to give him. Rather than forcing the ball downfield into heavy coverage, he was content to check-down or scramble for positive yards. Remember, he did not turn the ball over in this game at all. Meanwhile, the Giants' own offense -- not known for passing the ball -- actually put it in the air MORE often (32 attempts) than the Bills did. Myth 3: Scott Norwood is the reason the Bills lost the game Yes, the missed field goal at the end did turn out to be the difference. However, there were plenty of other factors that contributed in such a close and well-played game. The mythical story about this game has always been "Wide Right", but I always felt that the real story of the game was 41-to-19 (40:33 - to - 19:27 to be exact). That would be the Giants' time of possession against the Bills. Now, thanks to the Bills' hurry-up offense, they were often on the losing side of that stat even in games that they dominated. However, in this particular game that time of possession disparity made a huge difference. The Giants had a grind-it-out offense that was capable of milking the clock. Remember, the Bills' defense was built to stop Dan Marino's passing attack in Miami, but the defense was never sufficiently equipped to mussel an opponent's committed run game. Case in point: the Giants converted a strong 9 of 16 3rd down conversions. Meanwhile, the Bills were only 1 of 8. I would suggest that an unfortunate sequence of events that began midway through the 2nd quarter played a significantly larger role in the game's outcome than did Norwood's miss: -- The ability of Hostetler to hang onto that ball when Bruce sacked him and gripped his wrist. I still have no idea how he managed to NOT fumble it! A TD there would have made it 17-3. It is easy to say that the this would have impacted the final score in a game that was decided by 1 point -- but more importantly, the Giants' offense was NOT built to overcome large leads. Essentially, they were able to stick to their game plan. -- The offense's inability to capitalize on the series immediately following the safety. The Bills had the ball in great field position -- and seemingly had the Giants on the ropes leading 12-3. This was the offense's worst series in the game -- and those that criticize Kelly for passing too much in the game can use this series to bolster their point. I suspect that the thought here was that they believed they could put the game away there with a score, so they chose to be aggressive. Kelly DID hit Reed on a bomb that would have set them up inside the redzone, but Reed dropped it. On another attempt on that series, Reed was crushed by a defender on a crossing route. Instead of adding to the score -- or at least gaining field position/milking the clock, the Bills quickly went 3-and-out and took virtually no time off the clock. Even if the Bills did not score here, if they manage to convert a 1st down or run the ball to take some time off the clock, it is possible that the Giants do not score a TD to end the half. -- After the failed 3-and-out, the Giants more or less ate up the remainder of the quarter on a grind-it-out TD-scoring drive to go into the half trailing just 12-10. -- After the extended halftime, the Giants came out with another grind-it-out series that ate up much of the 3rd quarter and ended in another score to take the lead 17-12. -- During that sequence from the mid-2nd quarter to late in the 3rd quarter in which the Giants scored 14 points, the Bills' offense never took the field. With the extended halftime, the offense was off the field for over an hour. They looked rusty when they finally did take the field in the second half -- and, worse, the defense was starting to wear down. There were several missed tackles on that TD drive to start the 2nd half, for example. Myth 4: Kelly and the coaches were guilty of poor clock management at the end of the game We now know that Levy and Kelly approached Norwood and asked him where he would feel comfortable kicking a game-winning field goal. Norwood told them he felt good with anything inside the 30. Hence, the offense's goal on that final drive was to get it inside the 30 and leave as little time on the clock as possible for the Giants to respond. You could tell when Thurman ran that draw up the gut to set them up in such field position, the offense left the field believing that the mission had been accomplished. We all know what happend next. The issue here was not clock management. Rather, the issue was the stupidity on the part of Levy (or whomever) to trust that getting the ball to a spot on the field where his kicker seemed comfortable would be sufficient. As painful as it may be, I encourage everyone to go back and watch the game in its eternity rather than watching edited versions. For example, edited versions imply that the Bills' final drive occurred immediately after the Giants kicked the go-ahead field goal. That is not the case: as the Giants' field goal occurred with almost 8 minutes left in the game. It was a great game (very few penalties, no turnovers, a back-and-forth battle) played by two awesome teams. It is just unfortunate that the Bills came up on the short end. One thing I almost forgot: early in the game, Hostetler was literally knocked out cold. The Giants revived him with smelling salts. In today's NFL with the concussion protocol, etc. he would undoubtedly have been forced to leave the game. That would have left the Giants with their 3rd string QB behind center.

I hear ya. One thing that could be possible is to take a page out of what the Colts did back in 1998 with Peyton Manning (and the Steelers to a lesser extent with Big Ben in 2004). That would be to load up the offense with mass-protect blocking schemes, utilizing mostly a base 2-TE offense with heavy reliance on the running game and play-action. This kept Manning mostly upright and clean in the pocket, even though it limited his options. He struggled as a rookie, tossing nearly 30 INTs, but never lost his confidence or composure.

When I first read your post I thought the "guaranteed to get Allen" reference was another passive-aggressive suggestion that Allen would have definitely been available at #12, which we now know is not true. Instead, you are suggesting that they would have taken Allen at 4 (which is fine, given that we know that Beane and the Browns were in talks, but the Browns wouldn't back off wanting 12, 22 and next year's #1). First, I would be totally opposed to trading a proven (at least after one season) player like White for a roll-of-the-dice like Ward. Second, it is highly unlikely that Ward would have made it to 12. The Broncos would have undoubtedly still taken Chubb, and based on recent reports the Colts were all in on Nelson. However, with no draft partner in Buffalo, I could see Tampa taking Ward at 7. Or the 49ers at 9. Or the Dolphins at 11.Or possibly some other team trading up...