2003Contenders

Maybe the Rams' coaches were just doing what many coaches (including every Bills coach in this millennium) have done against Bill Bellichcik? That is, over-think and as a result tie their own hands. You know, the classic "Bill will expect us to run the ball with Todd, so let's do something else he will never expect..."

Both BB and Wade were great. Both of them, over 65, out-classed the whipper-snapper McVey (who admitted that he was out-coached). Maybe all these teams deciding to go the youth route when it comes to coaching should reconsider... ?

If the Bills don't address the TE position in the FA, I would rather that they take one in the first few rounds (Hockenson?) rather than draft 2 WRs in the 2nd round.

Some random thoughts.... 1. Shanahan was/is a douche. Recall that he was fired as OC for the Broncos because he was doing things behind Dan Reeves' back and subverting the organization. Then he went to Oakland and crapped the bed as head coach -- Al Davis fired him after one season. 2. Ralph fired Jauron mid-season back in 2009 -- and the organization tried to get a head start on head coach interviews. Ralph had always been a miser when it came to head coaches, but seemed to be willing to spend top $ on a head coach after the Jauron firing. The Bills reportedly offered Shanahan $10 M per year, but he wound up going to Washington instead for roughly the same money. The belief at the time was that he was using the Bills to drive up his contract demands with other teams. I am not sure that Graham's quote about his only reason for not signing with the Bills was because his wife did not want to live in Buffalo. I suspect that Schneider would have matched any offer that Shanhan would have received from the Bills. Recall that Shanhan even got to hand-pick his own GM in Washington, and that turned out to be Bruce Allen. 3. Remember also that when the Bills lost out on the Shanahan sweepstakes, they next turned their attention toward Bill Cowher, and they really did go full court press on him. Cowher declined but strongly recommended Chan Gailey. The rest is history...

This. Add also the fact that Peterman's crapping the bed in that game made it abundantly clear that he was not going to be some kind of 5th-round "diamond in the rough", and helped fortify the decision to do whatever was necessary to draft a QB in 2018. Yes, the front office allowed Peterman to hang around too long -- and expecting him to be the starting QB in the opener against the Ravens was a bad choice. But credit McD with making that quick hook and benching Peterman at half time. The coaches thought so little of Peterman that even when Josh Allen got hurt a few games later, they went with a newly signed D. Anderson and then a newly signed M. Barkley (when Anderson got hurt) over Peterman. Once two of the other 3 QBs were healthy (Allen and Barkley), Peterman was immediately released. Yes, being in such a lousy QB situation in the first half of the season does show poor planning on the part of the FO. Still, let's not forget that they had acquired AJ McCarron whom they thought was going to be a solid bridge QB until Josh Allen was ready. As bad as Peterman was, he did out-play McCarron in the preseason. I think that is a bigger indictment of how poor McCarron was rather than the front office having misguided feelings about Peterman. Beane admitted as much when he said that he had made a mistake in evaluating McCarron. As such, he deserves credit for cutting bait and getting a pick from the Raiders in exchange for for him.

It's not a good look for the QB, who is supposed to be the face of your franchise. Given the up-arrow for the Browns heading into 2019, expectations will be high. It won't matter to the bean counters and the fan base as long as the Browns win, but this sort of immature attitude will grow old fast if the Browns struggle.

As I posted in one of the other Allen vs other rookie QB threads, the comparison between Allen and Jackson is not really even close. Aside from some designed running plays, the Ravens did their best to hide Lamar Jackson, since naming him the starter. Meanwhile, in Buffalo during that same stretch, Josh Allen WAS the team's offense. In comparing apples-to-apples, let's look at weeks 12-17 (Jackson got his first start in week 11, and Allen returned from injury in Week 12). Aside from the Allen's first game back (against Jacksonville), where he attempted only 19 passes for 160 yards, Allen attempted at least 26 passes in every game and passed for at least 200 yards in each of them. He tossed 8 TD passes in those 6 games combined. Meanwhile, Jackson did not attempt as many as 26 passes in a single game. He has passed for 200 yards only once -- and that was a mere 204 yards. Over that 6-game span, Josh passed for 1242 yards and 8 TD passes, whereas Jackson threw for just 964 yards and 5 TD passes. Rushing, which is Jackson's greatest advertised asset, you ask? Well, Allen out-gained Jackson 476-441 and scored 5 rushing TDs to Jackson's 4 during that period. The amazing thing is that Allen's rushing numbers came on just 54 attempts, compared to Jackson's 92. Yes, that is correct. Josh Allen was a more prolific runner than Jackson was, even though he had 38 fewer rush attempts than Jackson had in weeks 12-17. Also, looking at W's and L's, as good as the Bills' D was, it was not in the same stratosphere as Baltimore's. If Allen had Baltimore's defense backing him up, he likely picks up a couple more W's (the loss to Miami and Jets both come to mind). Not taking anything away from Jackson because he played largely mistake-free (until the Chargers dismantled him to be a QB in the playoffs) -- and his team made it to the playoffs. He tossed just 2 INTs during that time frame, compared to Josh's 7. Still, all things being equal and factoring in what was asked of each of these QBs, it is asinine to rank Lamar Jackson ahead of Josh Allen in any format whatsoever.

Funny how an undisputed elite QB like Andrew Luck can struggle so badly when the protection breaks down.

Bottom line: aside from some designed running plays, the Ravens have done their best to hide Lamar Jackson, since naming him the starter. Meanwhile, in Buffalo during that same stretch, Josh Allen WAS the team's offense. In comparing apples-to-apples, let's look at weeks 12-17 (Jackson got his first start in week 11, and Allen returned from injury in Week 12). Aside from the Allen's first game back (against Jacksonville), where he attempted only 19 passes for 160 yards, Allen attempted at least 26 passes in every game and passed for at least 200 yards in each of them. He tossed 8 TD passes in those 6 games combined. Meanwhile, Jackson did not attempt as many as 26 passes in a single game. He has passed for 200 yards only once -- and that was a mere 204 yards. Over that 6-game span, Josh passed for 1242 yards and 8 TD passes, whereas Jackson threw for just 964 yards and 5 TD passes. Rushing, which is Jackson's greatest advertised asset, you ask? Well, Allen out-gained Jackson 476-441 and scored 5 rushing TDs to Jackson's 4. The amazing thing is that Allen's rushing numbers came on just 54 attempts, compared to Jackson's 92. Yes, that is correct. Josh Allen was a far more prolific runner than Jackson was, even though he had 38 fewer rush attempts than Jackson had in weeks 12-17. Not taking anything away from Jackson because he has been mostly mistake-free -- and his team is in the playoffs. He tossed just 2 INTs during that time frame, compared to Josh's 7. Still, all things being equal and factoring in what was asked of each of these QBs, it is asinine to rank Lamar Jackson ahead of Josh Allen in any format whatsoever.

And this doesn't even count H. Phillips, whom I think (hope) will improve in his 2nd season.

There could have been any number or motives here. And, yes, it is certainly possible that the Bills were the team that leaked the tweets. Yes, they supposedly were the only team to grill Josh about these tweets after they came out, but that could have been a mirage in and of itself to alleviate (and disguise the leak) from Josh and his agent. Let's remember a few things: 1. The Bills were on the Josh Allen bang wagon for some time. I firmly believe that he is the QB they targeted all along, and would have taken him #1 overall if they were in the position to do so. 2. When the Jets moved up to 3, the Bills were potentially in the position to lose out on 3 (possibly even all 4) of the top-rated QBs in the draft. 3. Aside from the Browns and Jets who ultimately took QBs, there was a legitimate concern that both the Giants (picking at 2) as well as the Broncos (picking at 5) were in the QB market. The Bills had tried to work out a deal with both the Giants and Browns to move up from 7 but the price to do so was prohibitive for the Bills (at least both 2018 first rounders in addition to 2019 first round pick). The Bills had a framework deal in place with the Broncos that would have included both first round picks (plus more) to move up to 5; however, when the Browns surprised by taking the CB at #4 and left the DE on the board at #5, the Broncos reneged. The Colts were dead-set on the OG, so the Bills wound up finally working the deal with the Bucs. The price of two 2nd rounders seemed like a steep price at the time for moving up 5 spots, but we now know that both Miami and Arizona were also trying to move up for Allen as well. Hence, there was ample reason for the Bills to have leaked the tweets in hopes of scaring the Browns (and there were some members of their front office who preferred Allen to Mayfield), Giants (who were looking for a QB to back-fill Eli but ultimately decided that Barkely was too good to pass up), the Jets (who seemed willing to take any of the top 3 QBs given the move they made), and Broncos (who may have been looking QB after failing to sign Cousins and settling for journeyman Keenum in the off-season). There is also precedent in prior administrations for this sort of pre-draft shenanigans in Buffalo. Remember when Buddy and his scouts anonymously spread the word that Cordy Glenn was only an interior lineman at the NFL level and would not be able to play LT? Buddy even joked about leaking this misinformation once the draft was over. I know it seems cynical -- and I am not saying that the Bills were necessarily the team that did this as other teams (obviously, the Dolphins and Cardinals and possibly others like the Ravens, Pats or Steelers) had similar motives -- but this is part of business in the NFL. All is fair in love and war, after all. If the Bills really were behind the leaks, they can make it up to Josh by boosting his offensive line and acquiring at least one more quality WR (and TE) in the off-season. LOL

Very similar to the numbers that Robert Foster put up (see the other thread about Foster's production since re-signing in mid-season) -- with Foster averaging over 20 yards per reception. Difference is Foster was an undrafted free agent.

The other stat that jumps out to me is the 71% target conversion rate. That is ridiculously good, especially considering that so many of his targets were downfield ones. It also says a great deal about Josh Allen's perceived inaccuracy. If we can find one more quality receiver (in addition to Foster and Zay) who is ideally a large target and can actually run precise routes and make contested catches, I think we are in business.

Although the decision (assuming this is true) to let Crossman go was a bigger no-brainer, Castillo and McD go back a long way. Undoubtedly the decision for McD to let him go came with quite a bit of emotion, and McD wanted to do right by him by letting him know right away, in hopes that Castillo would have the best chance to land on his feet elsewhere.

Lawson may not be elite, but he is a good DE with the arrow pointing in the right direction. Remember, as a rookie he missed all of training camp and most of the regular season with the shoulder surgery. In year 2, he had to learn a whole new defense under McD. By many accounts, he was a bubble player heading into 2018 -- and accepted the coaches' challenge to refine in certain areas. Shaq is probably never going to be a 10+ sack guy, but that is not the role he plays on this team. Instead, he has shown himself to be solid in run defense and pass overage and serves as a nice complement to the edge rushers. He's also come up with some huge plays at opportune times this season. Good players like this are not in over-abundance in the NFL, and I suspect that he has emerged as a favorite with the coaches due to his work ethic and selfless play. He's also the type of guy that could blossom into a team leader and an asset in the locker room (if he isn't already). Given that the goal is to draft, nurture and retain quality players, I would prefer to lock Shaq up to a long-term deal (or exercise the 5-year option), rather than needlessly create another spot-to-fill should we lose his services.

Despite the defense finishing highly in the rankings this season, anyone who watched the games knows that the D had trouble shutting down the run when opposing teams were smart enough to stay with it (See: 2nd Pats game). Also, the D had a habit of giving up late-game TDs when trying to cling to leads (See the first Miami game and the second Jets game). Zo is getting older, and Kyle is now retired. Bottom line: despite obvious needs on the offensive side of the ball, the Bills could certainly stand to shore up the defense as well.

Actually, these passing numbers are probably selling him short. The fallacy with projecting his numbers over a full season, I think, is the needless consideration of his first stint as a starter prior to the injury when he clearly was not ready. The 6 games he played once coming back from the injury, I believe , form a better sample size of what to expect as a baseline heading into 2019. That would put him around 3200-3300 passing yards. Hopefully he improves with a full off-season and getting virtually all reps as the starter in camp next season. Also, hopefully the front office does a good job surrounding him with better play-makers.

I find all of this over-analysis of a rookie QB By the pundits to be a bit silly., but here are a few thoughts: 1. I remember back in the 2005-2010 timeframe when the Bills would scrimmage the Packers in the preseason. Prior to the 2006 season, the two teams went toe-to-toe, and I remember at the time being so happy that the Bills had made the move up in the 2004 draft to get JP Losman rather than wait until 2005 to take Aaron Rodgers. During those 2006 drills and scrimmage, Losman (going into his 3rd season) looked so much more polished than did Rodgers (going into his second year). Doh! 2. For whatever reason, Josh Allen was a very polarizing figure headed into this 2018 draft. I am not sure why. Maybe it had something to do with the old guard (arm strength, measureables, prototypical physical traits, etc.) versus the new guard (analytics). The old guard cited Allen as a generational talent; the new guard did not see a great translation to the NFL based on his college stats. Guys like Mel Kiper and Phil Simms thought he should be the #1 overall pick. Other pundits did not even view him as a 1st round pick. The typical book on him was that he was going to be a "Boom or Bust" NFL QB. 3. This polarization has led many of these pundits to remain steadfast (stubborn) in their evaluation. Rookie QBs are going to make rookie mistakes -- and the Allen detractors love clinging to the missteps he has made in each of his games. Of course, the Allen apologists are happy to blame every mistake he makes on the play calling, poor WRs, OL, etc. 4. The completion percentage remains a thing that the detractors refuse to let go. There certainly is some merit to the fact that Allen does not throw with the precision that a Drew Brees, for example, does. He didn't at Wyoming, and he has yet to demonstrate that he will in the NFL. That said, there are some mitigating factors, including a poor supporting cast. The one thing that no one wants to point out is that the types of passes that Allen thrives on are by their very nature high-risk, downfield passes, which naturally leads to a lower completion percentage. Trent Green and Bruce Ariens talked about this in the New England game. Josh's tendency is to always want to make that big play, when sometimes the smaller, more "sure thing" play is available. Once he starts to better understand this, he will get better AND his completion % will improve. Again, he may never be a high 60's percentage passer, but that does not necessarily mean he cannot be successful. 5. Josh Allen really has been thrown to the wolves. I was one of those who believed going into the season that based on his rawness he would be a good candidate to sit the entire rookie season out and watch from the sidelines. I feared that (in addition to his lack of polish) that the less-than-adequate supporting cast would place him in an impossible position to succeed. That has largely been the case. However, rather than having his confidence shot the young QB has done a remarkable job of remaining poised and rising above it all. I like what I see in terms of the body language, confidence and leadership. Since returning from his injury, there has been little to no running game to speak of and with less-than-adequate receivers around him, Allen has had to do a great deal on his own. His future success will depend on finding that middle ground of competing on every play -- but at the same time learning to take what the defense is willing to give him. 6. One thing no one talks much about are the intangibles that I just alluded to. From what I have seen so far, Allen has these in spades. You can sense that his teammates -- even veterans like Zo and Shady -- love his competitive leadership. And it doesn't sound like the "wishful thinking" sound bites we used to get in the days of Losman or EJ. He also seems to be very coachable and able to learn from his mistakes on the fly. (The Cover1 guys did a great job of breaking this down when going over the film from the New England game). The guys that have been busts (Leaf, Russell, etc.) all had fatal mental or character flaws. I don't see that with Allen. The physical goods are obvious, he seems like a smart young man -- and by all accounts he is willing to work to get better. I am not saying that the "Boom" tag will ever apply (although I hope it does) -- I just don't see the dreaded "Bust" tag ever coming into play. That is provided, of course, that Allen can avoid reckless play and protect himself from injury. 7. I must admit that I was ambivalent about the Josh Allen pick. I do not pretend to be a master of scouting college QBs and projecting whether or not they will ever evolve into being a quality NFL QB. To those who loved the pick, I say be patient. He is far from a finished product -- and the Bills would do well to set him up for success by improving his supporting cast in the off-season. To those who hated the pick, I say to also be patient and remember that even the most vocal Allen supporters acknowledged that he would have to go through some growing pains before getting better. If he can master the small things (game management stuff), he has so much upside with the big things (downfield threat and mobility) to truly be special.

Excellent point by both you and dakrider. Would I like to see Josh Allen's completion percentage improve? Of course, I would. Each game we do see passes that we know he would love to have back. But completion % does not tell the whole story. (I believe Rob Johnson remains the all time Buffalo Bills leader in Completion Percentage!) And anyone who watched the game yesterday and came away believing that Josh Allen is a woefully inaccurate passer is being intellectually dishonest. I would add also that a more meaningful stat than completion % would be yards per attempt. Even with Allen completing only 50% of his passes, he had a very solid 7.8 yards per attempt. That is quite a bit better than Stafford's 7.17 -- even though Stafford had a considerably higher completion percentage. Note without comment that Mahomes, whom so many Bills fans appear to lamenting as the one we let get away, this past week was 24 of 34 for 243 yards. Yet again, significantly higher completion percentage but a yards per attempt number that was even lower than Stafford's: 7.14. That doesn't even factor in all of the dropped passes and DPI.

Along those lines, the red zone defense has been putrid the last 2 weeks.

I suspect that he will be a huge priority in the off-season. Alexander is a leader on and off the field and probably a favorite of McD's. A guy that gets "the process".

In addition to his physical attributes that have been well on display, I love his intangibles as well. You can see the way the veteran players around him respond to his leadership and contagious positive attitude. I guarantee the way in which he accepted the blame for the last pass of the game falling incomplete did not go unnoticed in the locker room. I would not be surprised to see Clay (or even KB) step up this week and makes some plays for the team.

Besides, what is McCarthy's record with versus without Rodgers in the lineup?

Excellent and fair review. I will say in Clay's defense that he was not entirely useless yesterday either. He actually did a solid job blocking most of the game -- and made a couple of key outside blocks on 1st down runs.

I am very happy for Frank because he is a great guy! That said, the Colts on offense have a vastly superior lineup to the Bills'. The Colts started off 1-5 largely because Andrew Luck did not have his "sea legs" under him after missing over a year of playing time. Now that he is 100%, the offense has taken a new shape. I hope that Josh Allen continues to progress and that one day we can mention him in the same breath as Luck -- but he's nowhere near that point now. Of course, when we played the Colts a few weeks ago, it was with Josh on the sideline with the elbow injury and with the hapless D. Anderson at QB. It is doubtful we win that game even with Allen behind center, but still... Meanwhile, the Bills have nothing close to TY Hilton or Eric Ebron, either.