2003Contenders

I think it was very vanilla. Indeed, there were times where I wondered whether the coaches were intentionally trying to keep things close to the vest and not give away too much with the playoffs looming in a two weeks. The reality is that this game REALLY meant something to the Pats (playing for a bye), whereas even a victory here still made the likelihood of the Bills improving their playoff positioning far-fetched, given that the Pats would also have to lose at home to the Dolphins next week. But then I reminded myself that this is who the Bills are under McD -- which is not necessarily a bad thing. He and his coaches preach ball control, shortening the game -- and bend-but-don't break defense. The bend-but-don't break philosophy works against many offenses, because it is so hard to consistently finish 10-15 play drives without making mistakes. Alas, when you face an opponent like Brady, who rarely makes mistakes (and is aided by the officials), that bend-but-don't break philosophy can lead to death by a thousand paper cuts. That is largely what happened yesterday as evidenced by the glaring distinction in time-of-possession and yardage. Even so, that disparity did not equate to what was on the scoreboard, as the Bills were in position to tie the game inside of 2 minutes. In a way, the fact that they were in the game despite the lop-sided play counts, somewhat justifies McD's philosophy, no? Putting aside the play-calling, this was one of the defense's weaker efforts of the season in terms of execution. Way too many missed tackles -- and from usually reliable players like Milano. Stopping the run continues to be a thorn in the side for this defense, when opposing teams are smart enough to stick with it. Also, I don't want to hear anyone complain if the Bills invest an early pick on a CB in the next draft. Aside from Tre, the other corners (the Johnsons and Wallace) are just not good enough. It's no wonder that slot WRs tend to be the ones that light us up each game. Now, I will say that I was NOT happy with the lack of imagination on the offensive play calling, especially once the Bills took the lead late in the 3rd quarter. They still could have been careful with the ball -- but at the same time mixed in some things that would have kept the Pats defense off balance rather than the run-run-run-punt crap. In the end, the game did not come down to the vanilla play-calling -- but, rather, the Patriots' playing better in the trenches. On a play-for-play basis, the Pats owned the line of scrimmage. That said, I never felt like the Bills were being dominated -- and they went toe--to-toe (now in 2 games) with the defending champs. Yes, I know, there is no such thing as a moral victory -- but this has to help a young team's level of confidence heading into the playoffs.

Dan Fouts talked about this in both Bills games that he called this season, including Sunday's game against the Ravens. While he pointed out that the main issue is with Josh not putting enough arc on the deep passes, he noted that it is impossible to do so with gusty winds (as was the case early in the game on Sunday when those 2-3 missed deep throws occurred). One of the great myths about deep passes is equating them with arm strength. This is not the case. In a way, a QB like Josh with top-3 level QB arm strength has to work to put greater touch on these deep passes. As an aside... Fouts is an interesting case in point. Despite all those passes, yards and TDs he accumulated in the Air Coryell system, he actually had a noodle for an arm (think Chad Pennington). What he had was nice touch, though (also, of course, mild San Diego climate, some fantastic receivers and a HoF pass-catching TE). When he had to play in blustery conditions (see the 1981 AFC Championship Game in Cinci), he didn't have the arm strength to get the job done.

The real test will be 2-3 years from now. Will Jackson go the way of other mobile QBs like RG3 and Kaep, wherein defenses figure out how to stop them -- or will he continue to develop and evolve as an upper echelon QB (a la Russell Wilson)?

This one will be tough, no doubt. The Ravens have a good coaching staff -- and will not foolishly cease to do what works well for them against us like the Cowboys did. So I do not expect to see Jackson dropping back to pass 30+ times. Jackson is careful with the ball -- and happy to throw it underneath or pick up 6-8 yard chunk plays with his legs. Hence, the usual bend-but-don't break defense that has worked so well for us may not be the best bet this week. The coaches are going to have to trust the DBs to play on an island and apply plenty of pressure up front without breaking containment on the outside. In his young career, (and unlike other running QBs like Cam) it seems that Jackson is already getting help from the officials, as the 49ers were repeatedly flagged yesterday for "roughing the passer" on very questionable calls. Our front 7 will have to be careful in these regards -- but also must stay aggressive and get a sound pop on Jackson whenever they can. Perhaps they can get a jump on the gamesmanship this week by choosing their words very carefully -- (e.g. avoid saying things like "If he is going to run treat him like a running back...") to prevent any sort of official's bias.

I don't know that I would necessarily call it the turning point of the game, but I get the importance of it: It showed just how desperate Garrett and the Cowboys were to win this game: a reminder of what happened when the Bills faced other talented teams with their backs to the wall (namely the Eagles and Browns) The Bills did not falter after allowing the 4th down conversion. Instead, the forced a punt afterwards and went on to score 26 unanswered points.

Only way we get a home game in the first 2 rounds of the playoffs is if we overtake the Pats for the division. Wild Card teams travel on the road.

Yea, even if his list had some other qualifier, like "most historically significant", it is hard not to have Warren Moon on that list -- and at the top. Remember, Moon had to play in Canada for several years because he was told by NFL executives/scouts that he did not have an "NFL arm". Yet, Moon had one of the finest arms -- and probably threw one of the prettiest passes -- in NFL history. You could argue that Moon -- more so than even Douq Williams -- played the greatest role in shattering stereotypes.

Don't take the bait. The Broncos run defense is terrible and the game plan for Sunday should be to pound the ball with an occasional pass from Josh.

I like the play calls (in regards to Josh's running) that were invoked against Miami this past week. That should be a decent blueprint for success. Of course, other defenses (including the Broncos this week) are significantly better than Miami's. It's doubtful, for example, that Josh will have the time to sit back in the pocket like he did against Miami. The running game (outside of Josh) needs to be better utilized -- beginning this week. (Note that the Broncos' pass defense is significantly better than their run defense.)

By this method of ranking, I guess it also follows that the Cleveland Browns should be ranked ahead of the Baltimore Ravens too, right?

I always thought these Power Rankings were silly. It was Bill Parcells who famously said, "You are what your record says you are". The Bills are the only team at 7-3, which neatly and without debate places them at #8.

Brown was a great pick-up and has nicely exceeded expectations. Beasley is fine as a slot WR. The issue is with McKenzie/Roberts/Foster/Williams. I am not sure why we are not seeing more of Williams, as he was pretty much catching all of his targets. Maybe he is not 100% healthy -- or perhaps he has not been doing what he needs to in practice. I am also perplexed by Foster, who played so well well in the back-half of the 2018 season. Maybe he too is not 100% healthy -- or, worse, maybe he has regressed to his pre-cut ways from last season. I am not sure that both Roberts and McKenzie both need to be on this roster. I know Roberts is the return-man and McKenzie is nice on the gadget plays -- but neither is an effective/reliable receiver. We really need someone to play outside opposite Brown, who is big/physical and has the speed to get open. One thing that Miami did well yesterday was run some drag routes with Parker that helped them to negate his mismatch against T. White (who otherwise pretty much held Parker in check). if we could add that element to this offense (with a large-bodied receiver capable of running such a route), I think it would really open things up.

Without getting into the politics of the matter, it is pretty clear to me that the bigger issue is that Kaep is more interested in promoting his agenda than he is playing football. I doubt that the agenda itself is what is keeping him out of the league, as there are a number of players around the league in every locker room who probably share his views. The difference is that these players are not letting this agenda get in the way of their on-field play. For NFL coaches and executives, talent trumps personality, politics, etc. If Kaepernick was really still a capable (and committed) QB, he would be on an NFL roster. I am not sure if he realized his own skills were declining (he was a non-noteworthy backup QB in SF when all of this started) -- or if he no longer had the heart for doing what it takes year-round to be an NFL player. Yes, he is probably still better than many current backup QBs in the league -- but NFL teams realize the risk involved in bringing in a guy who is a fringe player at best these days. Kaepernick has already shown that he is unwilling to serve in that fringe-player capacity. Recall a couple of years ago when the Ravens were serious about bringing him for a look -- and then Kaep and his SJW girlfriend posted some mean-spirited memes about Ray Lewis, KNOWING this would kill that opportunity. The situation reminds me of a jerk I knew in high school, whose girlfriend broke up with him because of his behavior. He begged her to take him back, and when she did suddenly HE decided that they should break up. And even this workout is likely designed more to get his name in the news and bang the drum about how the NFL has "blacklisted" him rather than genuinely trying to earn a roster spot on a team.

He should be suspended for the remainder of the 2019 season.

This is a fair take. Contrary to what we have seen, I think the ironic thing is that the coaches view Josh as a QB who is most definitely NOT a system QB and one who has the talent and smarts to adapt to ANY system. They appear to be taking the long-haul approach with him. Hence, Josh is taking his lumps as he struggles through the foundations. Let's hope, for example, that the narrow loss to the Browns will serve as a true learning experience for him. Conversely, Roman in Baltimore has designed a system that is exclusively centered around Lamar Jackson's skills. This year Jackson has been dynamic and the offense is clicking. But we all know that defenses eventually catch up -- and it will be interesting to see whether or not Jackson will continue to play at a high level for the long haul.

For those screaming "regression", note also that the disparity in competition of the first 3 games versus, say, the last 3. Let's also use the Pats game (4) as the barometer, as that was easily the offense's poorest showing. That said, the rushing offense was pretty good in that game. If Josh Allen plays in that game as well as he has SINCE then (even if he just takes a sack or throws the ball away in those ill-fated "hero ball" moments) , the Bills beat the Pats. The real problem for me (even in the Washington game) has been the play-calling. Daboll needs to find a way to get the offense into a rhythm. Usually the best way to do that is to design some quick-hitting plays (slants, come-back routes, etc.) that gets the ball out of Josh's hand quickly. That should help to open up the running game too.

First some reflections on Dick Jauron... I will have to admit that I was one of Jauron's biggest defenders back in the day. He admittedly had his shortcomings ("It's just so hard to win in the NFL"), but given the terrible talent that he had at his disposal (especially on offense) during his tenure here, he did a decent job maximizing what he had at his disposal and -- dare I say -- overachieved. He was a very good coach for a BAD football team. That is, his highly conservative game plans helped to hide some of the dearth of talent that the teams had on offense in those days. Let's not forget what a pariah Buffalo was considered back then with Ralph and Marv in charge. They had trouble attracting top coaching candidates, especially with Ralph's refusal at the time to pay top dollar. Donahoe had just been fired -- and he was a darling of the media, so friends of his like Chris Mortenson heavily criticized the Bills for letting him go. Mike Mularkey had just quit. So, frankly the team had to scrape the bottom of the barrel for either retreads or under-qualified assistants. Jauron was the former. When Jauron took over in 2006, his starting QB was JP Losman! To have gone 7-9 with Losman as your QB for all 16 games and somehow manage to finish 7-9 says something about maximizing the talent on hand. The 2007 team, I believe, set the record at the time for the most players placed on IR during the season. The QB situation that season consisted of the two-headed monster of JP and Trent. Jauron was actually in the running for Coach of the Year in some circles for getting that (again) under-talented and injury-plagued team to 7-9. Of course, the rails really started to come off the following season, when the team started strong out of the gates -- and fizzled after the hot start. The following season, when the team started slowly, Jauron was a dead man walking with billboards everywhere begging Ralph to fire him. of course, he didn't last the season. Jauron Ball is NOT a bad thing when you have a pretty good defense and are trying to hide lacking talent on offense. To a certain extent that is the measure that McD used his first year here with Tyrod. In fact, Tyrod was meant for Jauron Ball with his Just-Don't-Make-a-Mistake mentality. You could even argue that if Jaron had Tyrod as his QB back when he was here, those Bills may have actually squeaked into the playoffs... That said, despite the credit I give Jauron for maximizing the talent he had -- what he really did was minimize the ramifications for the LACK of talent. That is why he was good at managing a BAD team -- but uninspiring when leading a team with better talent. He was only capable of taking a team so far. I get the comparisons to McD. Both are defensive-minded head coaches, and both pretty much let their OC's handle the offense. McD is by nature conservative -- but not to the extent that Jauron was. Jauron was a fan of Run-Run-Pass -- whereas, one of our big criticisms of the offense this year has been the play-calling in which the running game has been neglected. Also, McD is a much bigger fan of going for it on 4th down. Jauron once infamously punted from the 34 on 4th and 2 late in the 4th quarter and trailing. Another fair comparison, I think, is that McD and Daboll have drilled it into Josh Allen's head to avoid making mistakes at all costs. Maybe it is time to relax a little and let the kid play. Yes, he needs to avoid making the lame "Hero Ball" plays like he did against the Pats, but over-emphasis on not making mistakes could certainly hold him back. It would also help if our OC would design and call plays in which the ball comes out of his hand quickly. Just my two cents...

I get the sense that Daboll does a pretty good job as a coach on Mondays through Saturdays. The problem is with his play-calling on Sundays. He has trouble calling plays that help Josh get into a rhythm. That was a strength of Chan Gailey's back when he effectively managed to (mostly) call the proper plays for Fitz. Of course, maybe the designed plays have multiple options and it is Josh Allen who is refusing to make the choice with the highest likelihood of success. Regardless, a more-than-2-to-1 pass-to-run ratio against the 3rd worst run defense in the NFL is on Daboll.

I get the sense that McD and Daboll are NOT properly communicating on 3rd down plays when there is a potential to go for it on 4th (in the event that the 3rd down conversion is not met). Maybe if Daboll knows that McD is willing to give him the green light to go for it on 4th down if we don't convert 3rd and 4, then maybe the play call is different. That is, maybe running it on 3rd and 4 at least picks up a couple of yards, even if the runner doesn't make it to the 1st down marker. Suddenly, 4th and 1 or 2 looks a lot better than 4th and 4, right?

Excellent post! With the benefit of a 24-hour cool-down period, here are some of my thoughts: 1. Pete Rozelle's dream of NFL parity is upon us. Nearly half of the teams in the NFL are somewhere between 4-6 and 6-4. For the most part, the teams that are better than 6-4 have had the benefit of a lighter schedule, whereas teams that are worse than 4-6 have largely had to play more difficult schedules. This applies to the Bills, whose 6-2 record going into yesterday was largely due to a relatively easy schedule, versus the Browns whose 2-6 record was the product of a much more difficult schedule. The Vegas odds-makers understood this, which is why they had the Browns as 3-point favorites. It is not unseasonable to say that these 2 teams are pretty evenly matched -- and the outcome of this game could have gone either way. 2. The Browns HAD to have this game. Their backs were against the wall -- and the team DOES have talent. Credit them for getting things done when they needed to. Meanwhile, the Bills need to harvest this kind of intensity themselves every week if they expect to make the playoffs. 3. As bad as the missed kick was at the end of regulation, the one that was truly unforgivable was the miss just before the half. That was a short kick that wasn't much more than an extra point. Not only did it impact the ultimate outcome of the game, but given how much the Browns had out-played the Bills in the first half, I think it would have been demoralizing for them if they had gone into the half DOWN on the scoreboard. 4. There has been much talk of McD utilizing Jauron Ball. I get it. Both are/were defensive-minded coaches, and both are/were conservative by nature. I also get that right now the defense is the strength of the team, and the offense is saddled with a young QB who is still learning his way. But Jauron Ball does NOT mean having the young QB drop back to pass 40+ times and running the ball just 20 times (with 6 of those runs coming from the QB). It also doesn't mean throwing the ball downfield in 3rd/4th and short situations, especially when the young QB has infamously struggled to complete such downfield passes this season. Yes, I know that in many of those situations, receivers WERE open downfield -- and Allen just failed to connect with them. But the likelihood of his being able to connect has to be factored into the equation when trying to predict the liklihood of success of a given play. Jauron Ball, after all, is designed to play the percentages and keep things close to the vest. Going into the game, the "book" on the Browns told us that their defense is in the top half of the league in terms of pass defense and 3rd WORST in run defense. Jauron Ball would have prescribed a heavy dose of runs, right? I guess what I am getting at is that I have no idea what Daboll's game-plan was yesterday. I am not completely down on him, but I really do believe that he called a poor game yesterday. If nothing else, he needs to do a better job of calling plays that will help his young QB get into a rhythm. 5. The defense has evolved into a true bend-but-don't break specimen. That worked fine last week against the Redskins, where AP rushed for over 100 yards in the first half but failed to get the ball into the endzone. Yesterday, the defense really kept us in the game with two HUGE goal line stands. The problem is that the defense is NOT getting turnovers, even when they are forcing the offense to run 10+ plays to get into scoring position. There were several close-calls yesterday, where the turnovers were ALMOST there. When the refs (correctly) reversed Hughes' game-sealing fumble-return, you could just sense the wind come out of their sails. 6. I didn't like the coaching/time management on that last drive at all. When the offense got down inside the 40, it was pretty clear that McD was playing for a tie rather than trying to win the game in regulation. When it got down to 4th-and-4, it was pretty clear that McD did NOT have faith in Haus to make that long kick. You could see the body language and indecision on the sidelines; the first inclination was to go for it there. Then they decided to try to draw the defense Offside -- then took the timeout and attempted the kick after all. 7. Regarding Allen, I think we saw a mixed bag. When it is all said and done, he did lead the team on drives into scoring range at the end of the half and at the end of regulation -- but the kicker failed in both instances. Allen did lead the team to the go-ahead score prior to the last ill-fated defensive "stand". The "hero ball" seems to be out of his system now, but he still struggles to protect the ball when scrambling (we got lucky here yesterday). Last season he struggled to hit the intermediate passes (slants, etc.) but was pretty reliable on the deep passes. The trend has reversed this season. I think he probably needs to just hit on one of those deep balls -- and then the monkey will be off his back. As I said, Daboll needs to do a better job helping him get into rhythm with his play-calling. 8. Seeing how this team rebounds next week will be a true test. They travel to Miami, who is actually on a winning streak. Fitz, as we know, is always dangerous. That said, the Bills are the better team, and if they rebound the way they should -- then they head down to Miami and destroy the Dolphins there. If that happens, then maybe we will look back upon this loss as a blip on the radar -- rather than the end-of-the-line that many fear.

Not speaking for dnveu, but I think what he is getting at is that the manner in which the Seahawks handled Wilson as a rookie could be a decent model fro how the Bills should handle Josh Allen NOW. You are correct that there are little similarities between the two of them in their rookie seasons. Wilson joined a team with a superior defense with a somewhat established running game already in tow. Allen joined a team last year with a defense that was still trying to find itself and with a supporting cast that was REALLY bad. Now, the Bills' defense is stronger -- still need to fortify the run D -- and the supporting cast is MUCH better than it was last season at all levels (RB, OL, WRs). Had Josh played smart-but-unspectatcular football (like he did yesterday against the Redskins), the Bills win the majority of their games in similar fashion -- and probably would have beat the Patriots back in Week 5.

Can't argue with you here. I guess what I am getting at is that (and this stretched across various administrations) the front office(s) failed to be proactive in contract negotiations. Quality CBs are a huge commodity in the NFL, which is why they command such large contracts. When White signs his next contract, it will likely make him the highest paid CB in the NFL (until the next top notch CB becomes a free agent); the Bills need to accept that and work with him and his agent in good faith -- before he becomes a free agent and gains leverage. After all, part of this long term plan is to draft well and keep our own good players, right?

He was. Part of that was because Rex so badly mis-used him. That said, it was pretty clear in his final season here that he knew he was going to be playing elsewhere and was looking for a big payday, so (whether consciously or not) he went out of his way to avoid contact/injury during that final season as a Bill.

The Bills have a long history of drafting quality CBs -- Winfield, Clements, Gilmore, and now White. They let the first 3 walk before their 2nd contract, let's hope that doesn't happen with Tre.

All in all, it was just a bad game and a bad match-up for the Bills. 1. The Eagles were coming off an embarrassing loss to the Cowboys. So they were highly motivated. 2. Despite their record, the Eagles are still a pretty good team and are well-coached. They are just a year-removed from being Super Bowl champs. 3. The windy conditions made it difficult for either team to pass. (Both QBs wound up with about 170 yards passing.) 4. The Bills' defense held up pretty well in the first half. They held the Eagles to 3 points inside of the 2:00 warning when Josh Allen fumbled and set the Philly offense up in good position. Soon the Eagles went from a 3-7 deficit to a 11-7 lead. 5. After a well-done drive to place the Bills in the position to try a long field goal at the end of the half, which was no good, the Eagles got the ball first in the 2nd half. That is when the 65-yard run occurred, and suddenly it was 17-7. 6. The offense answered back with a TD drive of their own to make the score a respectable 17-13, which seemed OK at the time given Allen and the offense's success in the 4th quarter. 7. The Eagles did a nice job with long sustained drives in the 3rd and 4th quarters, including some key 3rd down conversions thanks to Wentz's legs. Meanwhile, the Bills offense got too pass-happy in the windy conditions, which led to some 3-and-out situations. The defense wore down in the 4th as a result. In the gamut of a season, you are going to have a few games a year when something like this happens. The Kelly-era Bills even had 2-3 games like this every year. So I am not freaking too much. We have 2 losses. One of them was against the Patriots, which was only by 6 points in a game win which Allen turned the ball over repeatedly. (The Pats have blown out all of their other 7 opponents). Let's see how they bounce back this week. Now, if the Redskins also manage to pile up 200+ rushing yards and shut down our offense, then I'll start worrying some. ?