2003Contenders

You will probably get mocked for this, but I won't laugh at you. Even amongst the pantheons of greatness -- we can acknowledge that a player was great and at the same time say that he was somewhat overrated. Regarding Marino, I am reminded of what Jimmy Johnson said nearly 30 years ago when he had very recently stepped down from being the Cowboys' head coach and was working as an analyst. The debate was who was the best RB in the NFL -- Barry Sanders or Emmitt Smith. Jimmy said that he thought that Barry was the greatest RUNNER in the NFL, as he could do things rushing that he had never seen anyone else EVER do. However, he thought that Emmitt was the better RUNNING BACK because he was better is many other key areas, including pass protection and receiving. Smith was also more reliable about getting those 1-2 yards to convert on a first down or score a TD than Barry was. I liken this same principle to Marino, who may have been the greatest PURE PASSER that the league has EVER seen. He could make every pass with precision and had that all-time quick release. However... he was lacking in many other areas, in particular his ball-handling. He could NEVER sell the play action and defenders could always tell whether the play was going to be a pass or a hand off because Dan telegraphed it. Marino's supporters always pointed out that he did all he did despite the fact that the Dolphins were never able to get a running game to support him. I would argue that it was Marino's own fault that the team never got the running game going. Anyway, I guess where I am going with this is that while Marino may have truly been one of the top 3 PASSERS in NFL history, he would not make my list of the top 10 QUARTERBACKS.

This is spot-on, and I would also go with Tyrod, Fitz and Flutie (probably in that order). Bledsoe had that great first-half season -- and then was terrible after that. The 2003 team was actually pretty stacked (especially on defense) -- and his limitations more or less single-handedly held the team down (6-10 that season). The team almost made the playoffs in 2004 IN SPITE of Bledsoe, and (like Alpha said), when everything was on the line, he came up short against the Pittsburgh backups. I think Fitz would have had more success if he had anything resembling a decent defense -- but, of course, he probably would have made those terrible back-breaking decisions at the most inopportune times.

Austin appears to have turned some heads in mini camp -- and Josh has been singing his praises talking about his work ethic, leadership, etc. I think he has a very good chance of sticking. Just looking as the numbers, I do not see why not. Assuming that they go with the the same number of WRs as last season... Safe to assume that these guys are back in their 2021 roles: Diggs Davis McKenzie Beasley and Sanders are gone and ostensibly replaced by: Crowder Austin* Shakir was a mid-range draft pick that the front office was very high on. I could see him taking Stevenson's spot on the roster. So that is 6 -- plus Kumerow, who was the #7 WR last year. Kumerow is a big part of special teams but I could see him being pushed by Stevenson, Hodgins and Gentry.

My guess is that as the cases continue to mount and public opinion continues to rage against Watson and the Browns for having traded for him and signed him to such a lucrative contract -- the spin will definitely be that he is an "addict". At a minimum, I would think that the Browns (WITHOUT being forced to by the NFL) would want to put Watson on a leave of absence to get these legal issues squared away -- and then hope that things settle down by 2023. It will be interesting to see if the Browns truly have an "out" here. I would think that some clever attorneys would be able to identify language in the contract that gets the Browns off the hook -- essentially a "termination for cause" type of thing. It would also be interesting to discover whether the Browns jumped the gun on the trade and contract without due diligence in further investigating -- or if they actually did investigations and were willing to go through with the trade knowing to some extent what else would eventually come out. The former is stupidity, and the latter is disgraceful. In some ways it reminds me of what the Ravens did with Ray Rice -- they were willing to go to bat for him KNOWING fully well that he had physically abused his girlfriend. It wasn't until the video was released that the outcry was so great that they had no choice but to cut ties with him. The video did not provide any new information -- just a visual of what everyone knew had transpired. In Watson's case, there may not be video evidence -- but the detailed affidavits of the various victims spells out the horrific things that Watson has been accused of -- which should make it increasingly difficult for the Browns to have any thought of entering the season with him as their QB.

Actually the Brees situation here reminds me a bit like what happened with Kelly. It sounds like NBC has not been impressed with Brees in the studio and don't want him back. Jim also struggled as a broadcaster, and after one year in retirement he started talking about wanting to come back and play for the Baltimore Ravens (which never materialized).

Yes, that was without a doubt the best draft of the "lean" era. It was also the only draft in the Donahoe/Levy/Brandon era in which Tom Modrak did not participate (he was hired a few months AFTER the 2001 draft). Makes you wonder...

Agreed. If this were real, why would they not have taken Cine (whom they supposedly had ranked 13th overall in a group that only included 14 first rounders) instead of Smith (whom they had graded as a 2nd rounder?

Re-signing Darryl Williams to something close to a vet minimum contract is also a possibility.

While Beane keeps things close to the vest, I believe that he is a straight shooter. That is, I do not believe that he puts up "smoke screens". For example, last year the team was supposedly interested in both N. Harris and Entienne. Both were drafted well before the Bills' pick at 30. So it could very well be that Beane/McD were interested in those guys but did not want to move up to get them and may have been more interested in Rousseau even if either was still there. When Beane says that he believes in going the BPA route, I believe him. I actually think "where there is smoke, there is fire". This year they have been linked to Hall. Given their reported interests in the same position last season and their lack of significant movement (Duke is not a significant pickup), it could very well be true. Now, that isn't to say that they wouldn't draft a different player at a different position at 25 over Hall, just that I have a feeling that Beane and McD would not lose any sleep over a selection of Hall at 25. Also, in the last couple of drafts the Bills have been linked to physical in-the-box safeties. I suspect that is also true, and McD would love to have such a player in his defense, especially with Poyer's future with the team in question. So, if Hamilton (for example) starts to slide, I could see the Bills making a move (if not cost prohibitive) to get him. This team has the strongest roster since the glory years -- and would be best served to maximize early picks rather than to stock up on late round picks who would have little-to-no chance of making the roster. With the market for trading down reportedly weak this year, I just don't see the Bills being in the position to trade out of the 1st to acquire multiple 2nd/3rd round picks. The converse is that a weak market for trading down, likely means a strong market for trading up -- so I would not be surprised to see a slight move up (inside, say, the top 20) or a package of late-round picks to move up from the 3rd to the 2nd or 4th to the 3rd. I guess my order of likelihood would be: 1. Stay put at 25 and draft BPA (likely CB/S, WR, OL, or RB) 2. If a player they thought would go in the top 10 starts to slide down to, say, 15 trade up to get him 3. Like I said above, I think it will be hard to find a partner with which to trade down. But... A team picking early in the 2nd round and wants to move back into the 1st to secure a 5th year option, may be tempted to trade up with the Bills. The would then probably Bills pick up the other team's early 3rd rounder in the trade. That gives the Bills two 2nd rounders and two 3rd rounders to address the needs referenced above. They can still use late-round picks to move up higher in each of those rounds if they need to.

I understand what you are saying -- and if a really good CB that fits the scheme is still on the board when they pick at 25, then I suspect that is the direction they would go. However, there is a very good chance that 5-6 CBs will be gone before they pick.

The YarsPerPass post linked just above compares him to Thurman Thomas.

Given that we have no way of knowing what will happen with those 1st 24 picks, it is impossible to predict what the Bills will do at 25 -- and whether or not they will trade up/down. Beane loves draft day flexibility, and we can be rest assured that he has been on the phone with other teams talking about trade-up as well as trade-down options. We have heard the rumors for weeks now that he is serious about moving up in the draft -- and I do not doubt that is true. But it is equally likely that he could be patient and wait for the draft to come to him at 25. Given that the trade-down market appears to be weak, I am not sure that the Bills will be able to go that route -- unless there is a team picking at the top of the 2nd, who wants a shot at the 5th year option that trading back into the 1st would provide. Of course, we hear predictions of this happening every year -- and there is rarely as much movement in the back end of the 1st round as we expect. I don't think the Bills would make a huge move to get inside, say, the top 10 because of how much that would cost -- but I could see them trading up a bit (inside the top 20) if a guy they love starts to slide. I think they also have a list of guys that they would be comfortable taking at 25 if the draft does not go how they hope (and no one slips to them). Breece Hall could very well be one of those guys.

They really pigeon-holed themselves that year because Jauron was pounding the table for an edge rusher. IIRC, the real culprit was the late Tom Modrak, who had a disdain for Texas players and passed on Orakpo in favor of Maybin. I voted for Maybin because he was absolutely worthless from day one -- and was a major holdout in training camp. Maybin, in fact, should be a poster child for why the NFL was smart to slot (and cap) rookie salaries 2 years later. It doesn't even take hindsight to say that everyone should have known better -- he was not especially productive at Penn State, was under-sized AND slow. So it is hard to argue that he was drafted for either on-field evidence or upside potential. He had a nice looking burst coming out of his stance -- but recorded something like a 4.9 forty at the combine.

Well, remember that the cap is only tied to the top 51 players. My guess is that only 2-3 draft picks would bump the lower-end guys on that top 51 list out of range. And then the added cap allocation would be the difference in 2022 salaries between those rookies and the guys who fell off the list. That is why the $2-3M estimate is probably closer to being correct.

I'll be honest -- after his rookie season (when he had Kyle Orton throwing him the ball), I thought we had something special. Then he battled nagging injuries the next couple of seasons, got traded to the Rams, received an inexplicably grandiose contract -- and (aside from a few shining moments with the Chiefs) has really been a disappointment ever since.

Dawkins, who went in the 2nd back in 2017, has been pretty good.

You make a good point about the depth of the existing roster and potentially wasting later round picks, which is why I do see the Bills packaging some of those picks to move up in the middle rounds (say, 2nd-4th) -- but I don't think they want to cede future 1st rounders or give away this year's 2nd to move up in the 1st -- unless the temptation to move up is too hard to pass.

While Beane and McD may have their sights on moving up in the draft, I don't think it would be for a CB. That position is pretty deep this year without a lot of separation. Honestly, there are potentially 6 guys that you could argue are worthy of going in the first round (Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner, Derek Stingley, Trent McDuffie, Andrew Booth Jr, Roger McCreary, Kaiir Elam). I highly doubt all 6 will be gone in the first 24 picks. I suppose if there is one guy that the Bills love and he starts to slide, I could see them trading up a few spots to get him -- but otherwise I doubt it. Beane knows what he is doing, unlike Whaley who traded away keys picks to move up for Watkins (when we had plenty of other holes to fill) in a WR-heavy draft. I just don't see Beane doing that for a CB.

It's funny because I thought Moss played well late into his rookie season -- and actually made an impact in the playoffs. When he got hurt, it seemed like the offense took a step back with Singletary (most obviously in the AFC Championship Game against KC). That is why expectations were modestly high on Moss headed into 2021. As it turns out, from day one (when Moss was a healthy scratch against Pittsburgh), he was a major disappointment. He does some things well -- especially blocking and catching the ball out of the backfield. However, breaking tackles and fighting for extra yards used to be his calling card (wanting defenders to "make a business decision" when tackling him). Too often in short yardage and redzone situations, he failed to get the yards needed. He seemed slow at times to read his blocks -- and sometimes outright missed open holes. He may not be any slower than Singletary -- but especially late in the season Devin seemed much more determined and decisive when making his cuts than Moss did. So in answer to your question, especially given that he is still playing on a 3rd round rookie contract, I have not completely given up on him. He and Devin combined should prove to be serviceable. However, with defenses totally dedicated to stopping Josh, you would think that Moss would be more productive when given the opportunity. Imagine what the offense could do with an elite "bell cow" RB legitimately taking some of the pressure off the passing game (and opening up play-action) -- and converting on those crucial 3rd and short situations to keep drives alive!

I remember back when Nix was hired, many pundits criticized the move -- citing an up-and-comer in the Pittsburgh pipeline named Doug Whaley as a more viable option. As fate would have it, Whaley wound up taking an assistant position as an understudy to Nix. Given Nix's age, it was pretty clear that Nix was a short-timer, and that Whaley's time serving under him would be an apprenticeship. Nix hired Doug Marrone not long before he left. Given that he knew he was heading out the door, I suspect that Whaley must have had some input on the hire -- just as I suspect that he must have had some say-so on the drafting of E.J. Manuel a couple of months later. Still, it is quite clear that Whaley and Doug Marrone did not get along. I still remember the meltdown that St. Doug had during training camp of 2014, when he had to be restrained from physically going after Whaley (and Russ Brandon). When Marrone left, the reports were that Whaley wanted Hue Jackson as the new head coach and was overruled by Brandon and the Pegulas to hire Rex. Obviously Jackson would have been a disaster of a hire (even worse than Rex) -- but if the Jackson hiring had occurred, it is likely that Schwartz would have stayed on as DC, so who knows? As a whole, Whaley's time here was a mixed bag. He did a decent enough job scouting and running the war room on draft day -- but failed to ever land us a genuine franchise QB. As a visionary roster/team builder he was lousy. As others said, he was OK making patch moves here and there -- but never had a long term plan and did not do a great job managing the cap. Whaley also never seemed comfortable talking to the press or representing the franchise. A larger than life personality like Rex, who craved media attention, helped shield Whaley during that time-frame. But when Rex was fired, Whaley wasn't even comfortable standing up in front of the media -- and hung his interim coach out to dry. He's been making media rounds lately and seems much more comfortable in these regards -- so maybe he has improved in terms of his communication and presentation skills. Still, I doubt that he will ever be the guy that is able to build a contender from the ground up. Having a polished, forward-thinker like Beane on hand now, we see just how much Whaley was lacking.

Is there evidence that the Bills ever offered him a contract? The article makes it sound like he had an offer from both the Steelers and Bills and was mulling over them. Maybe he had a standing offer from the Bills? The article also says that his agent was pushing the Steelers' offer, and it is highly unlikely that the agent had an epiphany from above. 🙂

Yes, and he also overlooks the number of jobs and boom to the local economy that will be created by the building of the new stadium. So the tax payer funds can rightfully be viewed as a genuine investment.

Very well laid out. I can't understand why any Bills fan would have an issue with the way that Beane handled the Bates situation. The bottom line is: do you like the 4 year $17 M contract? If not, then the Bills were not in a situation where they HAD to match it. So the argument that the team overpaid for him is ridiculous. If they felt that the contact that the Bears presented was more than the value they had placed on Bates, then the absolutely could (and should) have allowed him to walk. Actually, given that the Bills did choose to match the offer, tells us how highly they do think of Bates -- and given that they had the right of first refusal, never seriously placed them in jeopardy of being unable to match a fair offer. Also, we have not seen the year-by-year breakdown of the contract. We just know that it is $17 M over 4 years with $8.8 in the first two years guaranteed. That could mean a $8.8 M signing bonus in 2022, which for cap purposes can be spread out over 4 years -- or $2.2 M per year. If year one base salary is the vet minimum, the cap hit for 2022 would be less than $3M. I think we are assuming that the Bears probably front loaded the base salaries a bit more than that hoping the Bills would not be in the position to match, but we will have to see. In addition to the excellent points you made about the risks of applying the 2nd round tender, we also have to remember that, since the tender immediately hits the cap, the difference in the 2nd round tender and Right of First Refusal tender was north of $1M. As we saw with the activity in free agency and all of the additional moves to clear up space to sign Williams and others, every $ counts. Beane's approach served as a stalling tactic while they addressed other needs, cleared up cap space and effectively allowed the Bears to do their work for them. I am not saying that Beane is batting 1000 with his various moves as GM. I just fail to see why anyone has a beef with his handling here -- unless you don't like Bates and do not believe he was worth the contract. But that would be another issue entirely.

Agreed. Also, especially given all the QB moves that have been made around the league thus far, it is noteworthy that every move that the Dolphins have made has been to bolster the supporting cast around Tua. It appears that they want to give him every opportunity to succeed before deciding to move on at the QB position.

Another point about the Carolina -> Bills and now Bills -> Giants connection... recall that McD and other new members of the front office had some insight into the Panthers' draft board back in 2017. The Panthers were reportedly in on both Zay Jones and D. Dawkins, whom the Bills moved up ahead of them to acquire (both in the 2nd round). Wonder if Schoen and the Giants do something similar to the Bills in the draft.