2003Contenders

The issue for the 49ers, I believe, is that he has a large roster bonus coming up -- and if they designate him as a post-June 1 cut, I believe they are responsible for paying him that bonus (even if he is picked up by another team). Personally, I would prefer a healthy Ayiuk over Metkalf -- and we just saw the large contract (plus trade compensation) the Steelers gave up for Metkalf. Of course, the operative word there is "healthy", and the injury that Ayiuk experienced last season was devastating.

Interesting about Golden. Conventional wisdom has him as WR 4 in the draft (behind McMillan, Burden and Egbuka). Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, I guess. I saw that the Bills reportedly met with him at the combine. I never expected him to last until 30 but thought that he could potentially be the target of a mild trade-up like the team should have done to acquire BTJ last year. If this news is true about him being the first WR off the board, there's probably no chance of such a trade up now.

And let's not forget Billy Joe "I never read my playbook" Tolbert.

And to think, while the Josh Allen "no 1st down" call will forever be remembered, the officials also spotted the ball short of where it should have been SEVERAL times in that game. If the ball is properly placed in all of those situations, maybe the game doesn't come down to a "failed" 4th down attempt.

You're not the only one. We saw last year how much $$$ went to mediocre WR free agents (including Gabe Davis). The FA market isn't great this year, so I expect the few "name" WRs to command over-priced contacts again. I just don't see Beane investing that much money when there are pretty big needs along the DL and secondary. Simply maintaining the status quo at the position (as underwhelming as it was) from 2024 won't even be easy. They just re-signed Shakir to a decent contract, and I expect that they will do whatever they can to retain Mack. Will they try to bring back Cooper at a reasonable deal?

Interesting take about the pre-injury Coleman vs the post-injury Coleman and how he stacked up against Worthy. At the time of the injury, as I referenced earlier Coleman had: 35 targets/22 receptions (62.9%) for 417 yards and 3 TDs, He averaged 11.9 yards per target and 18.95 yards per reception. Meanwhile, Worthy had the following stats at that time: 37 targets/19 receptions (51.35%) for 235 yards and 3 TDs. He averaged 6.35 yards per target and 12.37 yards per reception. So indeed Coleman was noticeably more productive pre-injury (at least in the passing game). On 2 fewer targets, he had 3 more receptions and nearly 200 more yards receiving than Worthy. Granted, Worthy turned it on more in 2nd half of the season (and in the playoffs). But on the full season, despite his hyped 40-time, his average yard per reception (10.8) dwarfed that of Coleman (19.2). I know he was very productive in the playoffs against the Bills and Eagles -- but how much of that was because the Bills fielded a MASH unit in the secondary, and virtually all of Worthy's production came after the Eagles had the game well in hand?

Agreed. Also, he and Josh need to find the time to work one-on-one during the off-season. Improve chemistry on timing routes -- and Coleman needs to learn how to best help his QB when a play breaks down.

I agree that the various stats providers are wildly inconsistent about what is considered a "drop". I like to look at team-wide receiving stats, essentially talking apples-to-apples as the receivers were primarily targeted by the same QB. In that way you can somewhat calibrate the receivers' success rate by comparing the % of targets that they managed to haul in compared to other receivers on the same team. Here is what the Bills looked like last season: Player Targets Rec Rec % Yards TDs Yards/Rec Yards/Target Ray Davis 19 17 89.5% 189 3 11.1 9.9 Ty Johnson 21 18 85.7% 284 3 15.8 13.5 James Cook 38 32 84.2% 258 2 8.1 6.8 Quintin Morris 6 5 83.3% 36 1 7.2 6.0 Khalil Shakir 100 76 76.0% 821 4 10.8 8.2 Dawson Knox 33 22 66.7% 311 1 14.1 9.4 Mack Hollins 48 31 64.6% 378 5 12.2 7.9 Amari Cooper 32 20 62.5% 297 2 14.9 9.3 Dalton Kincaid 75 44 58.7% 448 2 10.2 6.0 Keon Coleman 56 29 51.8% 556 4 19.2 6.4 For the sake of this exercise, I left off Shavers and Davidson, each of whom had one pass thrown their way, which they both caught. Maybe only 4-5 (as cited by various publications) of Coleman's 27 non completions were technically drops, but his 51.8% catch-rate of the targets thrown his way is unacceptable. And before we blame Josh, the scheme, play design(s), etc. it is worth noting that Coleman's success rate was by far the worst on the team. The only other receiver with less than 60% conversion rate was Kincaid, who also had a very disappointing season. Obviously, we can't expect an 80+% rate like the RBs all had, given that many of their targets were much closer to the line of scrimmage than Coleman's (although, Johnson owned a phenomenal 15.8 yards per reception). And it is unfair to compare Coleman to Shakir -- who is known for his high % of caught targets. However, even a modest jump to, say, the 64.6% that Hollins hauled in would have meant a stat line of 36 receptions for 691 yards -- and likely an extra TD or 2. Also, if we factor in that he missed 4 games after the injury, over a full season it would look something like 47 receptions for 902 yards and 7 TDs, reasonable production for a WR2. If we look closer at his pre and post injury stats, we can see that in weeks 1-9 his numbers looked like: 22/35 (62.86%) for 417 yards and 3 TDs, 11.9 Yards per target and 18.95 yards per reception. After the injury: 7/21 (33.3%) for 139 yards and 1 TD, 6.6 yards per target and 19.9 yards per reception. Obviously a small sample size, I know, but clearly there was a major decline in effectiveness after the injury. The good news is that when he DID catch the ball, he was highly productive with almost 20 yards per reception. So all is not dismal. If he can work on improving his focus/concentration, use his size to his advantage and become a more reliable target in the passing game, perhaps he can evolve into the receiver the front office banked on when they drafted him last year.

Some random thoughts: 1. When I see a team make multiple trades to move down (especially in the 1st round), it usually signals to me that they are uncertain about that 1st pick. That is, the Bills can claim all they want to about how much they liked Coleman, but their moving down the way they did (especially with so many other WRs coming off the board in that area of the draft) signals to me that they were not THAT excited about him. 2. I believe that Bishop had McD's name written all over it. For the past few years the team has been rumored to have coveted big safeties. Clearly the front office was very excited about taking Bishop at the end of the 2nd round -- as war room footage showed their refusal to trade down again when given the opportunity to do so for fear of losing out on that selection. 3. I wonder how much the concerns about the team's overall depth (given key looses in free agency as well as the Diggs trade) led Beane to go down the path he did in the draft. I honestly believe that he perhaps underrated the remaining talent we had on the team -- and seemed dead-set on making moves to acquire additional draft picks in hopes of building depth rather than making moves to acquire better talent. He honestly seemed more interested in regaining that 3rd round pick he had given up to acquire Douglas than he was in making a pick in the 1st round. While I am not sure that being able to trade up into the top 10 for any of the 3 high-rated WRs was feasible, I have to believe that the ammunition was there to make a modest move up a few spots to acquire BTJ, who undoubtedly would have made an impact for this team -- especially in the palyoffs. Instead, Beane decided to trade down TWICE in the first round, clearly more obsessed with acquiring additional draft picks than using picks to move up in the draft for better odds at blue chip talent. 4. Recall that the 1st half of the 1st round of the draft were literally all offensive players (Laiatu Latu was the first defensive player taken at #15). Now, it certainly could mean that the 2024 draft was indeed top-heavy on the offensive side of the ball -- but it also likely means that the 2nd half of the round was deep with talent on the defensive side of the ball. When the Bills were on the clock at #28, only 8 defensive players total had been drafted. Maybe the team would have been better off taking their next top-rated defensive player there than moving down 5 spots (with 2 trades) to acquire the 8th WR in the draft. To make matters worse, after the trades note that 4 of the 5 players that were drafted between 28 and 33 were also offensive players, 3 of them receivers. Beane can claim all he wants to that they drafted BPA, but acquiring the 8th WR (even in a draft purportedly deep at WR) when you could have had your choice at Safety or the 2nd CB or the 3rd DT in the draft just seems like a poor allotment of resources. 5. As others have pointed out, it really is too early to know for sure how this draft class will turn out. While the early returns are not great, time will tell.

Which is exactly why I question the credibility of the quote stating that Josh "long" wanted for the Bills to sign him. The team had the choice to do that last season and opted to sign Samuel instead (the Chiefs signed Hollywood a few days AFTER the Bills signed Samuel). I would have to think that Josh's desires fit into the equation when the Bills made that decision last season. Maybe Josh really did like Hollywood, but it would seem that he and the team preferred Samuel. Depending on what happens with Cooper, maybe the Bills acquire Hollywood after all -- and end up with both Samuel and Hollywood.

Yes, Bill Belichick quite often made him look bad back in those days (as did most coaches who faced BB in those days), but Coach Dick Jauron was a better coach for the Bills than many of us remember. I always thought that Dick Jauron was a really good coach for a bad football team. That is, given the poor roster he inherited back in 2006 (with JP Losman at QB!) it was a miracle that the team finished 7-9. The following year with a team that set the record at the time for the most players on IR (and was under-talented to begin with), he still led them to another 7-9 start. Then in 2008, the team got off to a great start -- which landed Jauron a contact extension -- then trip to Arizona happened, and the team never fully recovered. He always struck me as a good person who really cared about his players. He will be missed. RIP.

I would love to find a way to acquire Garrett. Then make some smart acquisitions at S and CB who fit the scheme and do not necessarily break the bank -- McD has shown that he can get a great deal out of guys like this.

Good points. Against both the Ravens and Chiefs I was struck by how easy both of those offenses made it seem with WRs often running wide open, whereas, it seemed like the Bills had to fight tooth-and-nail for every blade of grass.

Here is what I will say... There are entirely too many times where Josh has dropped back to pass and is unable to find anyone open. Replays often show all the receivers bracketed in coverage. I just want someone who can consistently get OPEN!

I agree -- especially with the part about letting McD make the call on who he wants at DB. IIRC Hyde, Poyer and Tre all came aboard in McD's first season back in 2017, and all three made an immediate impact. Hyde and Poyer were prudent FA pickups that did not break the bank, and Tre was a rookie. I would LOVE to see something like that happen again this off-season.

For me -- and I am sure for many others as well -- this board is a great place to come for therapeutic healing after a loss like last week's. (Thanks to everyone for that!) I will say that after a week of digesting what all went on with the game, my own feelings are much more positive than they were last week. Initial reaction to the offensive performance: the coaches did not sufficiently stick to the running game, Josh was not his usual post-season Superman self, and the over-use (and lack of innovation) on the "tush push" proved fatal. Initial reaction to the defensive performance: the Bills allowed the Chiefs to score points than they did in any other game this season, and once again the post-season comes to an end in the McD/Beane/Allen era with a resoundingly poor showing by the defense. With some time to reflect, while my initial reactions have not necessarily gone away, I will say that I am not nearly as down as I was last week. Just some random thoughts: Sometimes you look back at a game with a close score and you say to yourself that the close score was not truly indicative of how closely matched the 2 teams were in the game. Well, in this case, that is NOT true. The game really was THAT close. Both teams scored 4 TDs and 1 field goal. Despite all the bad officiating, questionable play calls, etc. the game really did come down to the fact that the Chiefs made good on their 2 point conversion -- whereas the Bills failed on both of their attempts. The Bills ran 66 plays, and the Chiefs ran 61. The Bills racked up 384 yards of offense, and the Chiefs racked up 380. Yes, it was that close. As much as we decry the defense allowing the Chiefs to score 32 points in the game, if you had told me before the game that the defense would hold Travis Kelce to 2 receptions for just 19 yards, mostly bottle up the Chief's running game (less than 4.0 yards per carry), prevent the RBs from having a big day catching the ball (just a total of 4 receptions for 35 yards), win the turnover battle 1-0, and keep Mahomes under 250 yards passing WITHOUT two key pieces of the Bills' secondary on the field -- I would have been VERY happy. While I see the argument that a great number of folks have made about McD and his staff being out-coached, we are talking about an opposing team that has Andy Reid calling the plays and Spags running the defense. Both of these gentlemen will likely wind up in the Hall of Fame one day. Yes, there were certainly things that I wish the coaches had done differently, but given how close the game was, that the Chiefs had home field advantage, were mostly healthy, and most certainly received MANY favorable calls from the officials, I think it is hard to complain too much about the coaching. Josh certainly came out with too many juices flowing - a la Brett Favre. I do wish that Brady had dialed up a more scaled back start to the game with some runs mixed in, etc. But after that poor start, Josh settled down -- and the offense scored the 2nd most points that any team scored against the Chiefs all season. The first-most, of course, was the one additional point that the Bills scored against them during the regular season. If the officials did not get so many of the spots wrong throughout the AFCCG, I honestly wonder how many more points the Bills would have scored! At the end of the day, Josh's and Mahomes numbers were quite similar: 237 yards and 2 TD passes for Josh, 245 yards and 1 TD pass for Mahomes. Ironically, it was Mahomes who did more damage on the ground: 11/39 yards rushing for Josh compared to 11/43 for Mahomes, which was close -- but Mahomes scored twice. Clearly, the Chiefs #1 goal was to minimize Josh's success outside the pocket -- and credit to them for doing that. Last note about the offense: the Chiefs biggest weakness during the season was that they allowed TEs to catch the ball at will. The Bills completed a combined 3 passes for 20 yards to TEs. I know Kincaid was supposedly still nursing a knee injury -- but why was Dawson Knox, who has had a pretty good track record against the Chiefs, targeted just once (which he caught)? Oh well. I will say that I feel better heading into next year than I did a week ago. The team should have more cap room to work with this year and, rather than an overhaul, if they can make some smart tweaks here and there -- a few more solid pieces on defense and at least one more capable receiver -- they should be a Super Bowl contender again in 2025.

Dareus was a beast when he really wanted to play. Of course, having Mario Williams, Kyle Williams, and Jerry Hughes on that line with him certainly helped him to thrive. Also having Schwartz at DL, who really knew how to make the best use of that DL talent certainly helped too.

I remember when the Diggs trade was announced and we saw that the pick was for the pick that Houston acquired from Minnesota rather than Houston's own 2nd rounder I was happy, as I figured (based on what happened in 2023) that the original Vikings' pick could be in the top 10, whereas Houston's would possibly be in the 28-32 range. As the season wore on, it became obvious that the Vikings were much better than we thought, while Houston was lucky to be in arguably the worst division in the NFL. Maybe the Bills would have been better off with Houston's own original 2nd rounder? Ironically enough, Houston is still alive and well in the playoffs -- and with the Vikings one-and-done (thanks, Sam Darnold!) Beane made the right choice!

I believe the emergency QB can come in without the other two being injured, but once he comes in neither of the other two is eligible to return to the game. So if McD does decide to get White into the game and White himself gets hurt, he would need to plug in some other player (probably someone who played QB in college or at least high school) to finish out the game.

Honestly, the last couple of weeks it has looked to me like the Ravens are going out of their way to pad Lamar's stats.

It is interesting that his career trajectory literally looks like a mountain (or hill) that peaked back in 2021. That is, when he entered the league back in 2019 he progressively got better in terms of targets, receptions and TDs each year until 2021 when he hit his high water mark with 100+ receptions, 1100+ yards and 8 TDs, career highs in every category. Since 2021 he has progressively DECLINED in targets, receptions and yards. So the upside is simply not there to warrant the challenges he presents. Let him become some other team's headache.

Exactly right. There is no reason why this should not be a blowout victory for the Bills, but let's not forget that the Bills struggled in both games against the Pats last year.

Exactly right! It's funny -- when you look at the final score and yardage, it would seem that the defense was garbage. And what transpired in the 4th quarter was certainly problematic. That said... -- The Bills did a very good job of holding the Lions' vaunted running game in check. I went into the game very worried that the combination of Gibbs and Montgomery would have a field day running up and down the field and could very well each eclipse 100 yards rushing EACH. Instead, they combined for just 44 yards on 10 carries. Yes, the Bills jumped out to the big lead, which forced the Lions to abandon the running game early. But part of the reason for that was the solid run defense early, which played a role in back-to-back punts to start the game. -- It took a lot of deep-in-the-playbook options for Ben Johnson and the offense to put up the scores they did: hook-and-ladder, tackle eligible pass, converting multiple 4th downs, etc. -- Others have already pointed out that all week we talked about the defensive line being a weak link. This week they showed up in spades, pressuring Goff from start to finish. -- Again, as others have pointed out, injuries were certainly an issue. We went into the game down 3 starters in the secondary. By the 4th quarter we were literally playing with multiple practice squad guys as Bishop, Milano and D. Williams all went down as well. I may have issues with some of McD's defensive decisions, but I do think that a good part of what he does is designed to overcome shortcomings from a talent perspective. That is why he employs so many bend-but-don't-break schemes. Of course, the very design of that scheme is supposed to minimize big plays, which is decidedly NOT what happened late in the game yesterday.

Clearly the prospect of being without Hamlin/Rapp/Douglas is not great. Especially in a week where it appears that practice time will be practically non-existent. That said, my expectation heading into the game (even with all of these guys healthy) was that the offense is going to need to score on virtually every possession if they have any chance of winning. So in a somewhat twisted way, being without these guys may not be the end of the world. In fact, there is a curious side of me that wants to see: 1. Has Bishop improved since he got torched in Houston? 2. How much -- if anything -- does Hyde have left in the tank? 3. Will Elam get another shot?

That is exactly right. And for those complaining about this post and suggesting that I am "woe is me as a Bills fan" or "reliving the past", I guess you missed (or perhaps I did not properly articulate) my whole point, which was that this game was strikingly similar to the LAST losses in the regular season for the past 4 seasons. This was intended to be OPTIMISTIC -- pointing out that after suffering defeats like these, the Bills rallied and went on to win all of their remaining games en route to division titles. Often times these late-season victories came against long odds (like beating KC in KC the week after the Eagles loss) when many believed that their season was over. Hopefully history repeats itself in these regards.