2003Contenders

Eli definitely gets in. He's got 2 SB wins (both against the Pats, one of them against the Pats team that went 16-0 in the regular season). Aside from that, he posted some gaudy career numbers with 366 TDs and over 57K yards passing. That said, you could argue that Eli was actually the 3rd best QB in that 2004 draft class -- even though he was drafted #1 overall. Roethlisberger will get in too when he is eligible in a couple of years -- also with 2 SB wins and even better career numbers. Rivers will be more of a debate, since he never made it to a Super Bowl. However, he wound up with better career numbers that Eli -- 6000+ more yards passing, 60+ more TD passes and 30+ FEWER interceptions -- with roughly the same number of pass attempts.

It is great for us as fans to be looking at various scenarios for these final 6 games, but I hope that McD and the team's sole focus during this bye week and heading into Week 13 is the San Francisco 49ers. Let's win that game at home -- and then start focusing on the Rams on the road. Rinse, repeat, etc.

It is interesting because Rex made an immediate impact when he arrived on the scene to coach the Jets. They made it to the AFC Championship game his first few seasons there -- and then crashed and burned after that. When he came to Buffalo, Rex made an immediate NEGATIVE impact. Recall that when Doug M. left the Bills almost made the playoffs (9-7 record) with Kyle Orton at QB and a top notch defense coached my J. Schwartz. Rex chose to dismantle that defense and wound up regressing in a major way in virtually every category.

Given that the game-sealing INT took place right in front of him, I too took it as a sign of respect and appreciation for an opponent who had just played a very good game against his team.

As we have seen, anything can happen. Right now the 3 hottest teams in the NFL are the Lions, Bills and Eagles. The Chargers are starting to turn heads, and the Steelers will not go away with that top drawer defense they have. The Chiefs have shown that they can always find a way to pull out a close game in the 4th quarter. Going strictly by odds, etc. it would appear that the Bills will be favored in 5 of their remaining 6 games as they will likely be 2-4 point underdogs in their game against the Lions but favored in the other 5. The 49ers have struggled at times this season as their record indicates, but I still expect that to be a tough game. Hopefully the Bills will be refreshed (with possibly some healthy reinforcements) and ready for business after the bye. They can't afford to come out flat after the extended rest and get down early to a team with CMC! The Rams are finally healthy, and their offense is now multi-faceted. We've already talked about how well the Lions have been playing. The funny thing is that their weakest game in the past few weeks (against Houston) may also be their most impressive, as they got down big early in that game (thanks to 5 INTs by Goff) and found a way to come back and pull out a win. Bottom line is that all 3 of those NFC games will be tough. It is tempting to pencil in all 3 of the final games as a "W", but they are all against division rivals who would love nothing better than to play the role of spoiler. Yes, the Bills SHOULD win all 3 of those games -- but they can't afford to lose any focus or intensity. They did exactly that in 3 of the 4 games in which they faced the Jets/Patriots last season and finished 2-2 against them.

The Ravens (and Texans) caught us at the right time, when the Bills were going through their annual 2-3 game slump, partly due to injuries. The Ravens also happened to be peaking at that time -- they have not looked nearly as good in recent weeks. Yes, they continue to run the ball well and stop the run, which will always make them a bad match-up for us. But if we see them again in the playoffs, I think we can take them. FWIW, if we meet the Texans again, I think we DESTROY them. Josh played the worst game of his career (at least since his rookie year), and Houston STILL barely won that game at the end of regulation.

I do remember that play. It was a 4th-and-1, and the Chiefs were pretty deep in their own territory (like the 38-yard line). So when Reid decided to line up to go for it, everyone knew that they were just trying to draw the Bills off-sides. When the clock started getting close to 0. I noticed the same thing you did about Mahomes casually walking toward the sideline. Rather than thinking he was going out for a pass, though, I thought maybe the Chiefs had a direct snap in place to the RB and Mahomes was just trying to divert the attention of the defense. The Rams did this with Kurt Warner successfully many years ago. I wonder if Andy Reid had Mahomes do this on purpose to give a look for the potential of calling a play like that in the future?

Was in a tweet today from Alex Brasky. The tweet stated: "During Thursday #Bills practice, WR Amari Cooper (wrist) appeared to increase his participation from what we saw last week. Thursday, Cooper caught passes both from coaches and QB Josh Allen. A good sign that he is trending toward a return following a 2-game absence #BillsMafia" Alex Brasky Tweet

He appears to be trending in the right direction to play Sunday. Was catching passes from Allen today in practice. So we will see...

I'm not sure that the Bills could have fit Hopkins' under the tight cap space, even with the Titans picking up some of his $.

Offensively, the Chiefs are not putting up crazy numbers -- but they are just finding ways to get it done. Mahomes has only eclipsed the 300-yard mark as a passer once, and he has only accounted for as many as three TDs (combined passing/rushing) once on the season. As a team they have only one 100-yard WR performance on the season (JuJu) and two 100-yard rushing days (both Hunt) -- and it took 27 carries in each of those games to eclipse the century mark. Kelce has been his usual reliable self though -- and he has really started heating up coming into this game with three straight strong performances. But... the Chiefs have had their own issues defending AGAINST opposing tight ends. The following guys have all racked up at least 50 yards and/or scored a TD against them: Isaiah Likely, Mike Gisicki, Kyle Pitts, Foster Moreau, George Kittle, Brock Bowers, and Cade Orton. It's a shame that Kincaid looks like he will be out -- but this could be a big spot for Knox, who has had some success against the Chiefs in the past. Knox could be a nice, cheap play in DFS this week!

I will also say that he seems to have developed pretty good chemistry with Josh. Many of his best receptions have been on busted plays where Josh has found him open.

If it makes you feel better, while the Ravens have the resources to expose the Bills' weaknesses, I'm not sure the Chiefs do. The key thing that the Ravens do is RUN the ball on offense and STOP the run on defense. While the Chiefs' run defense is outstanding, 83 yards per game (3rd best in the NFL) and 3.65 yards per carry (2nd best), their own run game on offense is pretty bad. They do average 115 yards per game, which is middle-of-the-pack, but when you look more closely and realize that they are averaging over 30 carries per game (7th in the league) and just 3.8 yards per carry (3rd worst in the NFL), their running game does not scare me at all. True, they have been playing without I. Pacheco, who was just designated for return -- but (a la Milano) he is unlikely to suit up for the next couple of weeks. I realize that the Chiefs are 9-0 for a reason. They are well coached, have a generational QB and an outstanding defense. They have also shown a crazy ability to eke out close games. From that perspective, they are certainly a tough match-up for anyone in the league. I just don't see them as a kryptonite kind of match-up for the Bills. For one thing, the Bills have been MUCH better in turnover differential than the Chiefs. Also, many of those close games for the Chiefs have come against teams that sit well below 0.500, while the Bills have been blowing those types of teams out. I see this as a close game between two of the top teams in the NFL that can go either way.

Given Spector's going to IR, I would think this would be a logical fill-in -- assuming, of course, there is not something more to his release than has been reported.

Rather than focusing on the run defense, I think it is critical to examine the Bills' overall defense against opposing RBs. That is, the defense against RBs catching passes out of the backfield is what has been REALLY bad. Against Arizona, 6 receptions for 64 yards (over 10 yards/catch) Against Miami (first game) 9 receptions for 81 yards (9 yards per catch) Against Jacksonville 4 receptions for 17 yards Against Baltimore 9 receptions for 88 yards (9.8 yards per catch) Against Houston 8 receptions for 62 yards (7.75 yards per catch) Against Jets 5 receptions for 56 yards (11.2 yards per catch) Against Tennessee 3 receptions for 13 yards Against Seattle 7 receptions for 53 yards (7.6 yards per catch) Against Miami (2nd time) 10 receptions for 90 yards (9 yards per catch) Essentially in the team's 9 games, only twice was this not a problem -- and that came against Jacksonville and Tennessee that did not really even try to pass the ball to their backs. Otherwise, teams have had success getting 8-10 yards per pass to their RBs. Not sure what the best remedy is for this, but it is also part of the price you pay for only keeping 6 in the box and dropping everyone else back into coverage.