2003Contenders

Honestly, the last couple of weeks it has looked to me like the Ravens are going out of their way to pad Lamar's stats.

It is interesting that his career trajectory literally looks like a mountain (or hill) that peaked back in 2021. That is, when he entered the league back in 2019 he progressively got better in terms of targets, receptions and TDs each year until 2021 when he hit his high water mark with 100+ receptions, 1100+ yards and 8 TDs, career highs in every category. Since 2021 he has progressively DECLINED in targets, receptions and yards. So the upside is simply not there to warrant the challenges he presents. Let him become some other team's headache.

Exactly right. There is no reason why this should not be a blowout victory for the Bills, but let's not forget that the Bills struggled in both games against the Pats last year.

Exactly right! It's funny -- when you look at the final score and yardage, it would seem that the defense was garbage. And what transpired in the 4th quarter was certainly problematic. That said... -- The Bills did a very good job of holding the Lions' vaunted running game in check. I went into the game very worried that the combination of Gibbs and Montgomery would have a field day running up and down the field and could very well each eclipse 100 yards rushing EACH. Instead, they combined for just 44 yards on 10 carries. Yes, the Bills jumped out to the big lead, which forced the Lions to abandon the running game early. But part of the reason for that was the solid run defense early, which played a role in back-to-back punts to start the game. -- It took a lot of deep-in-the-playbook options for Ben Johnson and the offense to put up the scores they did: hook-and-ladder, tackle eligible pass, converting multiple 4th downs, etc. -- Others have already pointed out that all week we talked about the defensive line being a weak link. This week they showed up in spades, pressuring Goff from start to finish. -- Again, as others have pointed out, injuries were certainly an issue. We went into the game down 3 starters in the secondary. By the 4th quarter we were literally playing with multiple practice squad guys as Bishop, Milano and D. Williams all went down as well. I may have issues with some of McD's defensive decisions, but I do think that a good part of what he does is designed to overcome shortcomings from a talent perspective. That is why he employs so many bend-but-don't-break schemes. Of course, the very design of that scheme is supposed to minimize big plays, which is decidedly NOT what happened late in the game yesterday.

Clearly the prospect of being without Hamlin/Rapp/Douglas is not great. Especially in a week where it appears that practice time will be practically non-existent. That said, my expectation heading into the game (even with all of these guys healthy) was that the offense is going to need to score on virtually every possession if they have any chance of winning. So in a somewhat twisted way, being without these guys may not be the end of the world. In fact, there is a curious side of me that wants to see: 1. Has Bishop improved since he got torched in Houston? 2. How much -- if anything -- does Hyde have left in the tank? 3. Will Elam get another shot?

That is exactly right. And for those complaining about this post and suggesting that I am "woe is me as a Bills fan" or "reliving the past", I guess you missed (or perhaps I did not properly articulate) my whole point, which was that this game was strikingly similar to the LAST losses in the regular season for the past 4 seasons. This was intended to be OPTIMISTIC -- pointing out that after suffering defeats like these, the Bills rallied and went on to win all of their remaining games en route to division titles. Often times these late-season victories came against long odds (like beating KC in KC the week after the Eagles loss) when many believed that their season was over. Hopefully history repeats itself in these regards.

That is exactly right -- and a big part of the problem (especially in the 2nd half) against the Rams. In addition to being pinpoint with his passing on Sunday, Stafford also did a masterful job of using he snap count to his advantage to identify when the Bills were blitzing and setting up the protections on the spot. That, of course, allowed him to consistently find the hot read. Against the Lions, I hope McD does a better job of disguising the blitz, faking it at times -- and giving the players a "bail" when the QB obviously reads it.

The Bills have been on the losing end of what could arguably be called the "game of the year" (regular season) each of the last 5 seasons, and the similarities are uncanny. All 5 games: -- Came against NFC teams. -- Josh played lights out in all 5 games. -- All of the games were decided by a single score -- All games essentially ended on the final possession. Indeed, 3 of those 5 games went into overtime. Let's look back.... 2020 Week 10: the infamous "Hail Murray" game. Josh passed for 284 yards and 2 TDs. He also rushed for 38 yards AND CAUGHT a 12-yards TD pass. 2021 Week 14: the overtime loss to the Tom Brady-led Bucs. After a slow start, the offense explodes in the 2nd half overcoming a 3-TD deficit. Josh passed for 308 yards and 2 TDs and tacked on 109 rushing yards along with a rushing TD. 2022 Week 10: the overtime loss to the Vikings thanks largely to insane catch made by J. Jefferson on a 4th-and-a-mile conversion. That was inexplicably followed by a fumbled exchange between Morse and Josh in the endzone, which the Vikings recovered. Josh was still able to tie the game with mere seconds left -- but ultimately lost in overtime. He passed for 330 yards and rushed for 84 in that game. 2023 Week 12: this was another overtime loss that was set up at the end of regulation where Elliott made good on a 60-yard field goal in the driving rain. Josh passed for 339 yards and 2 TDs, and added 81 yards rushing in that game. 2024 Week 14... Well, we all know about this one against the Rams. All of them exciting games that unfortunately went the wrong way. Josh racked up 400+ total yards in 4 of those 5 games -- and caught a TD pass in the other. Now, here is the GOOD news. In years 2020-2023 those games would all serve as the Bills final loss of the regular season, as the team would go undefeated the rest of the way! Here's hoping that this latest misstep follows suit!

Excellent points. Folks' observations about Knox looking better than Kincaid are also justified by stats... Kincaid has hauled in 34 of 59 targets that Josh has thrown his way (57.63%) for 356 yards. That is 10.47 yards per catch and 6.03 yards per attempt. Knox has hauled in 14 of 22 targets (63.64%) for 226 yards. That is an amazing (especially for a TE) 16 yards per catch and 10.27 yards per attempt. Knox is also clearly the better blocker and has a knack for making big plays at the right time. This is not an indictment of Dalton, who came into the league as a much more polished pass-catcher than Knox did. Also, going into the season there was a great deal of hype (even in fantasy circles) about Kincaid possibly being the focal point of the passing game -- and it does seem like defenses have been dead-set on limiting him, especially in the first half of the season. Even with him missing the last few games with the bum knee, he is still #2 in targets (behind Shakir), so Brady indeed has made an effort to get the ball to him. I am hopeful that the time off has allowed Dalton to digest some of the mental parts of the game. Once everyone in healthy and on the field at the same time, maybe things will open up more for him.

Getting back to the notion of the original thread -- and tracking Purdy's shoulder injury... The last I heard was that Purdy did some light tossing and workout yesterday, he is resting today, and they want to see how he feels tomorrow. My guess is that he will officially show up on the injury report all week as Questionable regardless of his true status. That said, it will be worth watching to see if he practices tomorrow -- and what he does on Thursday and Friday to see what direction he trends. The 49ers have been notoriously dishonest with the injury designations -- they outright lied about McC's status early on, and were misleading regarding the nature of Aiyuk's injury as well. So we are unlikely to get much in the way of "official" intel on Purdy. As I said, I suspect he will be designated all week as "Questionable" and his activity will be listed as "Limited".

Eli definitely gets in. He's got 2 SB wins (both against the Pats, one of them against the Pats team that went 16-0 in the regular season). Aside from that, he posted some gaudy career numbers with 366 TDs and over 57K yards passing. That said, you could argue that Eli was actually the 3rd best QB in that 2004 draft class -- even though he was drafted #1 overall. Roethlisberger will get in too when he is eligible in a couple of years -- also with 2 SB wins and even better career numbers. Rivers will be more of a debate, since he never made it to a Super Bowl. However, he wound up with better career numbers that Eli -- 6000+ more yards passing, 60+ more TD passes and 30+ FEWER interceptions -- with roughly the same number of pass attempts.

It is great for us as fans to be looking at various scenarios for these final 6 games, but I hope that McD and the team's sole focus during this bye week and heading into Week 13 is the San Francisco 49ers. Let's win that game at home -- and then start focusing on the Rams on the road. Rinse, repeat, etc.

It is interesting because Rex made an immediate impact when he arrived on the scene to coach the Jets. They made it to the AFC Championship game his first few seasons there -- and then crashed and burned after that. When he came to Buffalo, Rex made an immediate NEGATIVE impact. Recall that when Doug M. left the Bills almost made the playoffs (9-7 record) with Kyle Orton at QB and a top notch defense coached my J. Schwartz. Rex chose to dismantle that defense and wound up regressing in a major way in virtually every category.

Given that the game-sealing INT took place right in front of him, I too took it as a sign of respect and appreciation for an opponent who had just played a very good game against his team.

As we have seen, anything can happen. Right now the 3 hottest teams in the NFL are the Lions, Bills and Eagles. The Chargers are starting to turn heads, and the Steelers will not go away with that top drawer defense they have. The Chiefs have shown that they can always find a way to pull out a close game in the 4th quarter. Going strictly by odds, etc. it would appear that the Bills will be favored in 5 of their remaining 6 games as they will likely be 2-4 point underdogs in their game against the Lions but favored in the other 5. The 49ers have struggled at times this season as their record indicates, but I still expect that to be a tough game. Hopefully the Bills will be refreshed (with possibly some healthy reinforcements) and ready for business after the bye. They can't afford to come out flat after the extended rest and get down early to a team with CMC! The Rams are finally healthy, and their offense is now multi-faceted. We've already talked about how well the Lions have been playing. The funny thing is that their weakest game in the past few weeks (against Houston) may also be their most impressive, as they got down big early in that game (thanks to 5 INTs by Goff) and found a way to come back and pull out a win. Bottom line is that all 3 of those NFC games will be tough. It is tempting to pencil in all 3 of the final games as a "W", but they are all against division rivals who would love nothing better than to play the role of spoiler. Yes, the Bills SHOULD win all 3 of those games -- but they can't afford to lose any focus or intensity. They did exactly that in 3 of the 4 games in which they faced the Jets/Patriots last season and finished 2-2 against them.