Jauronimo

In bigger cities and more developed areas, housing is less of a basic necessity and more of an asset class. Real estate trends do not follow the domestic economy as closely anymore thanks to Chinese investment and Blackstone buying single family houses. Nothing would surprise me depending on the market. I am in Houston and while I would think the layoffs and the plummet in oil prices would lead to a soft housing market everything I have heard is that fairly priced homes in attractive markets are being scooped up by those with deep pockets. I have no clue either. (Unrelated rant) I never get tired of getting lectured by older generations who bought houses in cash on 3 months savings from an unskilled labor position despite having a family of 10 and being the sole bread winner. Maybe if the youngins stopped eating avocado toast they could all afford an $800k starter home?

Markets have gotten over heated well before MBAs and algo trading. Most institutional investors are getting judged on performance quarterly and annually so the incentive is there to hit your numbers short term. Longer term strategies are more common in the VC, PE, and hedge fund space which is off limits for the average investor since you need to have considerable net worth. I think the market cycles are only going to get more dramatic since more than half of the money in the game is now passively traded by way of ETFs. Much of the trading activity is not informed investors setting the price of an equity but ETFs re-balancing to mimic the performance of another asset, commodity, or index. Also, we have central banks propping up equity markets. Many investors have felt the market has been overheated and growing despite suspect fundamentals for years but sitting on the sidelines you would have missed out on a 30% run. So I guess you just keep playing, see how far the market can run, and have your plan for when the music stops.

Its one indicator, although I would say not a great one due to the effects of the FANG stocks on overall market performance. The reason its so often pointed to as a proxy for economic health is because its easy and its relevant to nearly everyone. Data is updated about 253 times a year and about 55% to 60% of Americans own stocks directly or indirectly. GDP data comes out annually, semi-annually or quarterly (and is always subject to significant revisions months later) and most American's do not follow GDP trends. "The stock market went up 25% over my first term in office" sounds a lot better than "GDP growth in 2019 was 2.1% and just shy of our initial estimate of 2.3%".

The market was completely over cooked. Any negative event was poised to cause a correction. Two generational type events like a pandemic and oil price war among two of the world's largest producers, AT THE SAME TIME, certainly meets the criteria. When the entire market trades at 30x earnings, a miss is significant. Several consecutive misses is a big deal. The rise of the stock market which has been primarily driven by a handful of companies (AMZN, GOOG, FB, TSLA, MSFT) has masked fragility elsewhere. Lowering the statutory corporate tax rate raised the value of every dollar of cash flow 10% - 15%. The S&P and Dow were kicking ass but earnings were not growing anywhere near in line with overall indices. Also, there are no yields so you have equity buying action because there is nowhere else to make a return on your money. In summary, we were due for a correction. It happened and the government responded with a trillion dollar stimulus package which means maybe theres enough cheap money available to hit new highs before we realize an even bigger correction.

It doesn't get much easier than last year, that is true. But we also will not be facing Brady x2 this year. For the first time in 2 decades the division is up for grabs. Anything short of winning the AFC East would be a major failure in my opinion.

Stop trying to make Christian Wade a thing. Christian Wade will never be a thing.

Eli and Mariota only became backups AFTER we played them. Would facing Daniel Jones and Tannehill for the 50th time really make that much of a difference??

I'm just going to leave this here. https://www.ourlads.com/story/default/Quarterback-Ball-Velocity-at-NFL-Combine-2008-2017/10243/dh/ Ball speed at the Combine. Mahomes 55 mph Deshaun Watson 45 mph Nathan Peterman 49 mph Yup. And you knew Peterman wasn't a threat to challenge deep. In the Houston game after Allen got hurt, the defensive backs were telling their safeties to hang back just in case while the DBs jumped the short routes. Pick 6.

I feel the need to put fools in their place who make ridiculous strawman arguments. I disagree with the opinion that drafting defensive backs in the first round is a waste and somehow this wingnut construes that as me declaring that defensive back is the most important position on the field and fires back in an obnoxious manner. Anyone who reads this: and then responds with: and then further demands to know "just what I am saying", when its plainly written in the text that he responded to in the first place, deserves to get slapped around a little. Or a lot.

Go read the thread and catch up with the rest of the class. Its all there in text. Take time off for headaches.

I guess its a good thing I have never said CB is or should be the cornerstone of the franchise. Other than being completely irrelevant to anything I have written in this thread, nice post. I love the classic "if you disagree with me then you must certainly believe the extreme opposite" logic. Now go through the same exercise for every other position in the game and show me what positions we are allowed to draft in the first round. Probably kicker. Only one first round kicker and he was a stud on the field!

Yes, they were very important and each one a great pick (although in the modern game no running back seems to be that valuable). I think jrober's argument about changing the fortunes of a franchise is a poor metric since in the modern game of football only a QB can have that kind of impact. I think we can all agree that limiting your selection on draft day to only QBs in the top 5 is silly. - Von Miller is the first player I thought of due to his dominance in the Super Bowl and MVP award. But the Bronco's success was largely due to Peyton Manning until their super bowl year when the defense led by Von and two strong CBs carried Manning's corpse to a title. The Broncos aren't even a playoff team now. - Orlando Pace is a great player but that team was all about Warner, Martz, Faulk, Bruce, and Holt putting up crazy points. - Fitz is the man but without Warner or Palmer the Cards are bottom feeders and have been for much of his sterling career. - Bruce played with how many other hall of famers on both sides of the ball. Its hard to credit any one player on the amazing team Polian assembled. - Earl is so far before my time I can't comment other than the game has changed and examples like OJ and Jim Brown do not have the same relevance in a pass happy league. - No one will ever forget how Jonathan Ogden kept Trent Dilfer clean while the Raven's juggernaut offense moved into field goal position. Ed Reed, Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs, your man Haloti Ngata, CJ Mosely were the heart of all those Raven's teams.

Revis made that Jets defense. Not having to worry about one half of the football field makes your job a lot easier. I think it was @thebandit27 who discussed a draft strategy that makes much sense to me in using your early picks on positions that you pretty much can't address in free agency or trade with any reliability. Those are your money positions. QB, EDGE, Left Tackle, #1 WR, shutdown CB. Guards, Centers, D Tackles, Linebackers, Running backs, safeties, tight ends, slot WRs need not apply.

If that's the test then I suppose you shouldn't draft anything besides QB in the first 5 picks (perhaps even first round). Name one player that isn't a QB, selected in the first 5 picks that changed the fortunes of a franchise.

Better or worse? Your feedback is appreciated.

If CB is a hole and the BPA is a CB at #3, I don't get the criticism. Your sense of betrayal from the selections of Whitner, Leodis, Spiller, Lynch, and McGahee without further facts or discussion isn't a very compelling argument. Try to contain your emotions in your response.

What tour did you catch NIN? I've been super impressed with their shows. Radiohead was my biggest letdown. Saw them at Lolla in 2008 and they basically played the entire In Rainbows album in the actual album order. Zero crowd engagement.

At what pick is it acceptable to select a DB?

Move up to select who? Every year there are trade up or trade down threads that never address the fundamental question of why and for what.

I don't get it. You're going to have to explain this one.

He is 100% free to leave the NFL and take any other $20 million per year job available that hes qualified for. Or hes free to not work ever again. That is the very definition of not a hostage. A hostage is not a person who has been denied his right to void contracts, choose his team, AND collect his multi-million dollar guaranteed money.

Tennessee shut him down in the playoffs too. TEN players said they followed the Buffalo script. I do not think he will be as effective moving forward unless he really starts getting the ball outside the hash marks to his WRs. I believe he had the least passing yards to his WRs of any QB in the game last year. He relies heavily on his Tight Ends and targets the middle of the field disproportionately.

I have heard from a guy who has connections with the Dillon family that the Bills have shown significant interest in AJ Dillon as a day 3 pick.

This asinine reasoning completely contradicts your other asinine reasoning in the "I Think I Know What Beane Did Last Summer" thread.