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Jauronimo

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Everything posted by Jauronimo

  1. I've thought a lot about selling but I like TSLA long term and the big question is what price point do you get back in and will we realize the big pullback to something like $700 per share? With this liquidity fueled market and its momentum TSLA could easily hit $2,000 before it sees something under a $1,000 again. But then I hear fantasy football bros like the Bar Stool Sports mouthbreathers and 17 year olds with RobinHood accounts slinging stock tips and I think I should just sell it all and sit on cash. P/Es make no sense in the tech sector. How do you even put a value on their lead in self-driving technology, the vast amount of data collected, their prop to upend the insurance market, and the subscription model for software they are proposing? The street basically assigns no value to their solar or industrial battery segment.
  2. So how many shares of ERESU do you own? Go read my contributions in this thread. Never said Pegula doesn't know what hes doing or wont make money so you can quit with the strawman. You think the energy industry is headed to new highs for reasons you can't articulate, and that's great. Another poster thinks this SPAC will do 2x at least. I have responded to misinformation and baseless speculation. Clearly, I'm not so bullish on fossil fuel market given the reasons I have laid out. I'm also skeptical of the SPAC boom in general. How many actually say they can't find a suitable acquisition and return capital to their investors? None. The pressure to make a deal, any deal is real. The history of SPACs in the energy space is particularly terrible. Pegula may find a some nice deals and investors could very well make some nice returns if he can scoop up some distressed assets. If you think $4 mbtu gas is coming back anytime soon given the supply we have, well I disagree. I was highly skeptical for a while but now I am optimistic on the EV market. I am digging my 150% YTD return on TSLA too. The world's largest car market is all in on EV's. Major manufacturers like VW, GM, Ford are all in. I do think hydrogen is a dead end. https://www.forbes.com/sites/energyinnovation/2018/05/30/chinas-all-in-on-electric-vehicles-heres-how-that-will-accelerate-sales-in-other-nations/#1746a016e5c1
  3. Seriously, these idiots need to stay off twitter and keep working y'all little jobs for the rest of y'all lives.
  4. No one was anticipating peak demand despite a sea of cheap oil and gas 70 years ago or even 20 years ago. Peak theory was all about depleting our reserves of oil which could be produced economically. In the last 5 years the U.S. has doubled its production and surpassed Saudi as the number one producer in the world. Suffice to say, fears of depleting all the worlds easily recoverable oil are no longer. Laugh all you want but China, the EU, and select U.S. states all have aggressive targets for emissions reduction. Every major car manufacturer is introducing an EV or has one in production. Most major manufacturers of Class 8 trucks have announced plans to introduce EVs. Fleet vehicle adoption of EVs is underway with the U.S. post office and Amazon getting ready to deploy. Tesla has already installed the Powerpack in Australia and in the U.S. to eliminate the need for a gas peaker plant and the early results show no drop in performance and significant savings. I'm sure one day you TSLA shorts will have your moment in the sun. The car replaced the horse in a span of about 20 years. Think about the magnitude of that transformation. You don't think a different kind of car can surpass an internal combustion engine in 10 years when every manufacturer agrees EVs or hydrogen fuel cell powered vehicles are the future? Where is this rebound in demand coming from? Commodity prices were already in the shitter before COVID-19. We were already realizing all time highs in gasoline inventories in 2019 which have been mostly steady since. What factors will drive consumption and boost commodity prices? Are you anticipating a huge market shakeout, significantly lower production, and a global market re-balancing (because the world's major producers always cooperate so well. Even OPEC can't get its own ***** together these days). What will drive a recovery in the energy industry to something resembling previous highs as you have predicted? For years the demand story has been the China opportunity but China leads the world in EV adoption. Petrochem is one of few bright spots long-term for the natural gas industry. Hyliion is doing some interesting stuff with natural gas but its not going to move the needle for the industry.
  5. I never suggested Pegs sold drilling technology like you refuted for some reason and I haven't suggested that he doesn't understand the energy industry. My point in this thread has been that none of you fine folks understand what you're talking about when it comes to the industry and specifically SPACs. If the notion is so rational why is wall street avoiding the industry like the plague? I guess they just don't like making money. I've been hearing about how undervalued the whole space is for the past 3 years and how commodity prices are bouncing back next year but its been a slow grind lower every year. Even among your best in class companies like XOM, PSX, CVX. Blue chip service companies like SLB and HAL are at 20 year lows. And this was all before COVID happened too. Anyone remember negative prices on crude futures earlier this year? The Saudis pivoting their whole economy away from oil production. Peak Oil supply is dead, now its Peak Demand and many think we are passed that point. Maybe we will this big shakeout of shale producers and commodity prices will soar again due to declining production. I doubt it. The U.S. has doubled its oil and gas production in the last 5 years, Qatar left OPEC to produce gas at will, shale technology has made supply of what we can economically produce much greater. Demand for gasoline and diesel, which is 40% of the demand for crude, is tepid to down. The developed world has pledged to go 100% EVs in the next 10 to 20 years so I don't see that improving much. Battery technology is already here to move away from natural gas peaker plants thanks to Tesla. Petrochem is the one bright spot I can think of for demand growth in natural gas. Will it be enough to boost commodity prices enough to realize big time EPS from O&G producers??? I don't know. I will watch ERESU and see what they intend to purchase.
  6. I know what they are targeting since I read the S-1. They specifically mention a focus on PDP assets (as opposed to PDNP, PUD, and probable) as I already mentioned up-thread. I also read the part of the S-1 that says they can invest in anything under the sun as they see fit. If you think PDP is inherently a good investment to the tune of 2x upside then load up on ERESU and wait and see what they ultimately buy. SPACs I have seen make one big splash. They aren't PE funds which have the luxury of 10+ year terms over which to deploy capital. I do not think ERAC is going to be traveling the country "well hunting" for a series of small deals. I am not sure that is even legal under the structure of the vehicle.
  7. I work in transaction services in the energy capital of the world dealing almost exclusively with clients in the energy industry. But thank you for clarifying the tax structure of a transaction for me while ignoring the financing side of the deal. Also, thank you for clarifying what acreage and leasehold rights are vs barrels of produced crude. I thought Pegula was just going around buying warehouses full of gas tanks and barrels of oil!! By the way, depending on the formation wells produce oil, gas, gas liquids, and some other less useful ***** all at the same time! Who knew?
  8. How? That is the meaning of distressed and their prospectus says they are looking at distressed companies. Also, unless they are buying a company worth $300 million or less, debt will be part of the basic deal finance. They might buy a company with zero debt and day 1 lever it up significantly. Their prospectus states they are looking for E&P companies with PDP assets and little value ascribed to undeveloped or speculative acreage. They are also looking to invest in companies which are distressed or have not had access to capital from Wall Street. It also reads that they may not even make an acquisition in the energy space. Basically, an investment in ERESU like any SPAC is a bet on their management team that in 24 months they will find an attractive deal and close and a favorable price. Stop telling us about their strategy like its written in stone. What does this have anything to do with the post you quoted? Right, because wells produce oil or gas exclusively and not both and no one in the industry uses the term "oil and gas".
  9. What if the distressed companies sell all their valuable assets but keep their debt for reasons?
  10. So is Jim Hackett. https://www.chron.com/business/energy/article/Bankrupt-Alta-Mesa-assets-sold-for-320M-15013022.php ok...Clearly I know what a blank check company is. What was your point that share price was "down to $10"?
  11. Par is $10. Its a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC). They formed a public company with the stated purpose of acquiring or merging with a company in the energy space. Pegs has 2 years to make a deal or return everyone's capital. Every SPAC initially trades at $10 and there is little share price movement until deal is rumored or definitive agreement is in place. Pegula made his billions buying oil and has producing acreage and developing this acreage. Raising capital, assessing investments, and closing deals is a different sport.
  12. Never been drunk, married, and spending your free time railing the buffet lines?!?! Sounds like you're doing your 20s all wrong. What do your 30s hold? Shuffleboard, high-waisted pants, and early bird specials?
  13. This is the way. I like both but prefer drums since theres usually some loose flapping skin at the end of the drum which adds extra crunchy texture. The girl prefers flats and we always order too much so it works out perfectly.
  14. I think he will be a solid fantasy contributor. He will catch more balls than Moss and rack up more yardage. Moss will take the goal line carries but Allen takes much of that work anyway.
  15. I don't think there is a true starting job on this squad but I wouldnt be surprised if Moss is seeing 50% of the touches by week 4.
  16. I have the 3B model and used it to make an old school gaming emulator. Games are easily downloaded and you can replay anything from Atari up through a few N64 or playstation 1 games. Great for NES, SNES, Sega eras.
  17. I don't read the obits or waste time with local newspapers. Enjoy your print subscription to the Buffalo News.
  18. Whats up with the parentheses after certain names? Maxwell (Meghan) and Lewis (Mary). Is half of this woman's family transgendered?
  19. What financial obligations were tossed on taxpayers when the XFL, a private enterprise, went bankrupt?
  20. Jim Kelly's late son.
  21. I'm sure any corporation would value the opportunity to credit check 60,000 people to make sure payments will be made on time as opposed to a single entity with meaningful cash flow generation. Kinda makes you wonder why naming rights aren't crowd sourced more often. I would love to watch games at Stadium McStadiumFace Field.
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