chicot
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Posts posted by chicot
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In a fast collapse of a government the power void will be filled by the group with the best organized leadership infrastructure which will be the Muslim Brotherhood. My bet is that the secular protesters do not want this type of reform or radicalization. Looks like they are going to get it.
You forget about the army. They're far more likely to fill the void than the muslim brotherhood.
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The only thing I can figure is that chicot believes they're fairly moderate because they haven't gotten a lot of press until lately. Kinda like saying al-Quaeda was "fairly moderate" before 9/11.
And you figure this based on what? I suppose having "muslim" in the name automatically makes them the bogeyman. This seems like a pretty well-balanced article about them:
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The short term is more likely severe economic dislocation and civil war, at this point.
Which means the long term is more likely less freedom and worse economic prospects.
The question was what they wanted rather than what was likely, hence my answer. I'm not as pessimistic as you on this - I dont think civil war is actually that likely. Mubarak is done and once he leaves his paid goons will melt away. Sure there's a risk of chaos but there's always that risk with a revolution but what's the alternative? Allowing Mubarak to rule until he dies and passes on the presidency to his son and the whole corrupt system continues?
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The questions that need answers are:
Who is behind this?
Why now?
What do they really want?
....and probably more
1) The Egyptian people.
2) They saw what happened in Tunisia and realized they could deal with their corrupt dictator in the same manner.
3) Long term - better economic prospects and more freedom. Short term - Mubarak to leave and non-rigged elections.
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Curious post title. As Islam is by far the largest religion in Egypt, I think it's a given the muslims will be in charge of Egypt whatever happens. As for this idea that somehow Egypt is going to become Iran there's very little chance of that happening. The hundreds of thousands demonstrating in Tahrir square do not want an oppressive Islamic regime, they want a western style democracy. In any event even if the muslim brotherhood did win an election, as Islamic parties go they are fairly moderate (think Turkey rather than Iran).
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All I know is benching Flutie for Johnson to play in the Music City Miracle game probably goes down as one of the worst decisions by Wade Phillips and a Buffalo Bills coach.
Johnson was the pre-Losman.
For awhile there, I didn't think that the Bills would ever get past the "scrambling" QB idea...
Hmmm... Of course I don't know for sure anymore than you do but I suspect that that decision was forced on Wade by Ralph Wilson. Whatever his faults, one thing I recall about Wade was that he tended to speak his mind (sometimes unwisely) and I remember that prior to the switch he seemed fairly insistent that Flutie was his QB. My guess is that Wilson thought Johnson was the messiah after his strong performance in the meaningless last game against the colts and demanded he start.
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Horrible. According to the BBC she was shot in the head at close range. If that's true it doesn't sound too hopeful.
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Wow. You really refuted their arguments there. Thank you. I feel so much better about the state of the planet thanks to your well thought out post.
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Then, chicot, why hasn't the green revolution taken root?
Not advocating for a nuked Iran, but just saying...
Revolutions are not easy. While there is substantial support for reform amongst the young, educated population there is also a lot of support for the government, especially in rural areas. I'm not sure which side makes up the majority. Also, the government holds all the power and is highly unlikely to just step aside peacefully. Any attempt to overthrow the Iranian government would likely cost thousands of lives and, even then there would be no guarantee of success. While some say that is a price worth paying, it's a lot easier to say when it's not going to be your life or that of your family at risk.
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Turning iran into a glassed over parking spot would be a good start on solving all of the world's problems.
Yes, genocide is always a good solution. Incidentally, you do realise that a good section of Iran's population disagrees with the government and is actually quite pro-western, don't you? Also, I seem to remember a candle-light vigil being held in Tehran to mark the 9/11 atrocity (why is that people always remember some Palestinians celebrating but completely disregard things like this?). Still, don't let such things interfere with your ridiculously simplistic world-view.
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Sorry, I was being sarcastic. I'd love to see a Bills game just played through without all the beer commercials.
The officiating definitely seemed to favor the Spaniards all day. It wasn't as bad as a typical Bills/Pats* game, but awful close.
I disagree. Sure, some of the later decisions went Spain's way but the Dutch were extremely lucky that their thuggery didn't result in them losing players earlier. The kung-fu kick on Alonso was easily worthy of a straight red card.
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It's about time Pasta got some respect.
They must have some McGruber in Gaza if they can make weapons out of potato chips, margarine, fishing rods, and goats.
If I remember rightly, Iraqi insurgents almost blew up Paul Wolfowitz with a goat-powered mobile rocket launcher.
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The point was that wars in that region do not need to be started due to miscalculation. Rather, the historical record is behind the concept of intentional aggression. Sorry for the lack of clarity.
I doubt that either Iran or Turkey are actually going to follow through with their threats to send escorts. Probably just posturing in both cases.
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Miscalcualtion? perhaps you've forgotten about the wars in 1948 and 1973.
As far as I know, Iran played no part in either.
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Meazza said Gaza was illegally occupied. I asked if it were still occupied, to establish the veracity of Meazza's claim that "Gaza is illegally occupied therefore a justified resistance", and allow him the chance to correct himself on the off-chance he was talking about the rest of Palestine.
Good job responding to something that wasn't even part of the discussion, you !@#$ing moron.
Yes, I'm a moron for misinterpreting something I read on a message board while at work. I humbly apologize for falling short of your lofty standards.
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Hasn't Israel withdrawn from Gaza?
Do you end resistance when an occupier vacates part of the territory it illegally occupies? Should the French resistance have stopped fighting if the Germans withdrew from 20% of France?
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Guts? Really? What was the "more gutsy" position in 1936? To have opposed and fought the Nazis as they remilitarized the rhineland or to sit back and let it happen, hoping all the while that people are really "good" and "nice" and not out to harm anyone? Hamas is directly responsible for rocket attacks against the south of Israel. That's the reason for the blockade, is it not?
The reason for the blockade is collective punishment for the entire population of Gaza. As I'm sure you're aware of (and probably approve) the blockade goes well beyond simply stopping arms from reaching Gaza and is intended to make the lives of the Gazans as harsh as possible in order to get them to turn against Hamas. That the policy is completely counter-productive in that regard is one reason why most of the world and quite a few Israelis are against the blockade.
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/expat/expatnews...ut-of-euro.html
Okay all Cheese Eating Surrender Monkey jokes aside, the Euro would be doomed if France withdrew. France, UK, and Germany are the bulk of the Euro Zone's financial clout. The UK has never been 100% into the whole Euro thing and with the new Tory government, France's withdrawl might prompt a British withdrawl.
Not quite sure what you mean by a British withdrawal? The UK hasn't adopted the Euro - we still have the pound.
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Looks like the Conservative Cameron is the new PM.
This should be interesting.
Very interesting. The Tories and Lib Dems are hardly natural allies (the Lib Dems are actually to the left of Labour in a few of their policies). Be suprised if the coalition lasts the full term.
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US aid in the Falklands War was pretty vital. And this was given despite the fact that Argentina was an American friend and the US did not really want to piss off friendly S American nations.
True. That's a fair point.
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Your point would have been more obvious had you said "Unlike all US Presidents....."
I'm not enough of a student of American history to make that claim. I chose Bush as the most recent and obvious example.
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And you posted this why?
? I thought my point was obvious. US Presidents routinely treat the British with disdain and contempt (and why should they do anything else when the British government does everything it's told to and blathers on about the "special relationship" like some lovestruck teenager) . If (and I'm not sure that he is) Obama is doing this is it's no different to what has gone on before.
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I suppose he'll simply continue to treat the British with disdain and contempt like he has been. It's the easiest thing to do - won't require him to change his approach to anything.
Unlike Bush, who treated the British with nothing but the utmost respect ("Yo, Blair")
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Frakkin' hope not. Those things are precarious historically. And we need a strong gov't given the mess Blair/Brown have made of UK finances (projected to be the most dire in Europe by the end of the year by the ECB - yep, worse than Greece...).
If my career takes off maybe I can emigrate somewhere. Oz is nice...
Interesting times. The much-maligned exit poll turned out to be remarkably accurate in the end. The Lib Dems seem to be in a very strong position despite doing far worse than the polls were predicting with neither Labour nor the Conservatives being able to form a majority government without their support (theoretically the Tories could actually get the 326 needed without them but the chances of the Welsh or Scottish nationalists doing any deals with them are more or less zero). The bottom line for the Lib Dems has got to be electoral reform. They may never get another chance like this to force through a referendum on PR - Labour are already more or less offering it (there was always a good deal of support for electoral reform within the Labour party even before this) and Clegg would be an idiot to accept anything less from the Tories (and he wouldn't be able to sell a deal to his party without it in any case).
The White House and Egypt
in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
Posted
I never suggested that. The army fills the void and prevents the country falling into chaos while a new constition is written, political parties organised and free and fair elections held. You yourself stated "since everyone seems to trust the Egyptian army, who themselves seem reasonably apolitical". Well, ok if everyone seems to trust the army and they seem reasonably apolitical why are they not better qualified to provide stability during the interim period than the corrupt and hated Mubarak regime, about which neither can be said?