zonabb

Why because he's right? They aren't going to the Super Bowl and no way Byrd resigns here next spring after back to back franchise tags. It's blatantly obvious he wants max dollars, which they shouldn't pay. So let him walk and take the comp pick and move on.

How many players that went to the highest bidder eventually ended up with a super bowl title? I'm sure they're out there but I my mind, you don't get over the hump with the highest price player at a position. In a team sport with 22 starters and a salary cap, investing in the highest priced non-QB player is usually done by teams in the bottom half of the league who have cap room and need to make a symbolic splash and it rarely works. How's Dashon Goldson's super bowl chances looking. Hell, how about Mario Williams? I just don't see the need to spend 13% of your salary cap on a $10M safety and how that equates to having a balanced roster of talented players.

Joe B is the only local journalist who isn't focused on driving followers to his twitter acct or the WGR55 website. He appears to focus entirely on unbiased, non-confrontational, analytical work and let's that speak for itself. Simply, he seems to want his work to matter and his reporting to be correct, not the first to rush out a rumor. The only media guy in WNY I respect so I believe the guy.

WGR 550 ‏@WGR550 5m Source: Bills unlikely to keep Byrd http://bit.ly/OQ5DzS

It’s amazing this forum, I’ll tell ya. Everyone now is a research scientist and is arguing that because they have some remembrance of correlation and how it is interpreted, their opinion is unquestionable. But there are two problems here 1) the strength of the correlation coefficient, across the hard and soft sciences, although sometimes using different terms, has the same interpretation despite the above-comment to the effect that it won’t get you published “much” because it’s “generally” not accepted (by the way that statement is internally contradictory with your argument because it indicates that in some cases works are published with these scores, thereby invalidating your argument that). That wasn’t the argument anyway; the argument is the interpretation of the value of r. I didn’t say it was “very strong” I said it was strong and it took me all of 3 minutes to find two sources in the so-called hard sciences that suggest anything from .70 to .89 is consider “high” (Asuero et al, 2006, journal: Critical Reviews in Analytical Chemistry) and .70 to .89 “strong” correlation (Fowler et al, 2005, Practical Statistics for Field Biology). Nice try with the attempted personal misdirection that insinuates my kids aren’t good enough for the hard sciences as a way to shield your mistake. If you want to talk precision and stats, then write what you mean and say it without terms like “generally” and “much” as a way to not commit to a stance you seem committed to. You won’t get published at all with errors. 2) With everyone focused on the interpretation of r to flex their stats muscle, no one wanted to take a shot at his research design, which tells me a lot. It tells me you took a stats course once but have minimal understanding of the limitations of research design, and in particular this one. I’m not here to slam it, I think it’s an excellent exploratory analysis that leaves enough questions for further development and I applaud the OP. This is where your mettle as a researcher should have been focused, not on what is an obvious continual debate over the interpretation of r, which we’ll never agree.

What college did you learn quantitative methods at so I can take it off the list of potential college for my kids?!!!! The value of r can be between -1 and 1. Values closer to -1 and 1 are considered strong negative or positive correlations, respectively. It its generally accepted than any score less than -.70 or greater than .70 have very strong negative or positive correlation, respectively. So you might want to brush up on your stats a bit. Outside of that, I appreciate this type of thinking as data junkie/analyst myself. The only issue I would have is that you're not measuring a "career" properly. I know this was a quick-and-dirty idea and it leads to bigger questions, but it might be best to do this with the population of retired QBs (or retired QBs since 1980 or justifiable selection to capture the more recent NFL) rather than currently active QBs. In this manner, the results would be more robust. Anyway, I think the findings this way might not see an r as high but would still be strong.

Lots of incorrect facts here. 1) the land was given to the ECHDC, not the city (thankfully). 2) Sorry, the only path Brown cleared was by staying out of the way. Higgins pulled off the transfer working closely with the state because the NFTA is an authority under state law, not local. HIggins and Brown hate each other because Higgins doesn't care about kiss Byron's backside and abiding by his ancient politics. Brown is as worthless a mayor as we've seen. If you mean he's cleared a path by promoting a $600,000 hot dog stand at the small boat harbor, then yes. But if you mean actually making real progress, you're thinking of someone else. Larkinville happened because the developer asked the city to just get out of the way. Sadly, the state and feds have to save the city from its bad leadership. And the transfer was for about 350 acres to a public entity and it had zilch to do with Pegula.

It gives me great confidence that this complex decision-making, from the fiscal to the siting, is being overseen by a committee chock full of visionary, progressive, and urban thinkers with long track records of successful implementation of status quo shattering projects like Byron Brown and Paul Dyster, whose cities are held high as examples of urban revitalization, increased jobs for all, the eradication of poverty, and improved education for all. Why would it include any outstanding economists, bankers, urban planners, or developers? Because it's nys... Politics before common sense. Dottie Gallagher Cohen? That's gotta be a joke. She went from running the CVB to being miscast to run the do-nothing BNP, which along with the aforementioned political hacks and their predecessors have failed this region for 60 years by engaging in self serving policies. Read the book Power Failure for your dose of why we can never expect much from this incestuous group of power hungry hacks and why we're in this position to save the Bills. Can't wait until the county list comes out but here's some guesses.... Richard Tobe. If it happens I'll post why it's obvious. He'll probably pick a staffer from the ECIDA even though he and Brown and Gallagher-Cohen are board members. Also someone from the NFTA and from ECHDC. There will be no one who could be seen as a common WNYer who brings some expertise to the table. Local non-politicos who should have a seat at the table? How about George Hasiotis, who was behind the outer harbor stadium idea? Like the idea or location or not, he's obviously done his homework and would be knowledgable. But he's not a political insider as far as I can tell because he doesn't seek everyone's political approval to just have an idea, which makes you against the system. How about Bob Shibley, dean of architecture and planning at UB who knows more about planning that all these jokers combined? Why not a guy who knows urban design and how to incorporate projects into cities and make them work. Makes too much sense. So many good choices for the county executive but they'll all best insiders. The recommendations here should be glorious.

This is the epitome of corporate handouts resulting in socialized debt for all and exclusive access for some. I'll be honest, if the Bills want to stay here, use hundreds of millions in taxpayer subsidies (which come from everyone) and then charge a PSL, I'll help pack the trucks. It's so perverse to take money from the public dole, money that could support things like, I don't know, and improved education or healthcare system, and give it to billionaire owners who then exclude a large majority of the population they extracted money from. I would hope that the Bills Fan Alliance, or whatever its called, ties some strings to its money that would limit the use of PSLs. Seems justified given that the savings on a $100M loan over 10 years would save $100M, or the amount gained from PSLs.

So is she reliable now that she said Quinn was still in and now that Pettine is signing? Yeah, real reliable to contradict yourself in a matter of minutes.

Amen. Reporting has ceased being about credibility and more about timeliness and because no one is held to anything they say anymore, twitter is all about quantity and keeping your name out there as someone with "info" whether that info is quality or not is no longer relevant.

It's all over. A third interview isn't needed, it's a contract discussion and evening presser. Why would Pettine go to Cleveland for a third interview, there is no logical explanation for them to need to talk again other than a contract. Personally, I think it's a mistake for Pettine. He'd have more chances down the road but the nexus of arrogance and fear of this being his only shot is where bad decisions are made.

While watching the game with some friends, the conversation turned to the decline of interest among us with the "product" that is the NFL. A league of classless, ignorant, street punks who can't act mature. You have coaches like Harbaugh that act like complete degenerates and the camera can't get enough. Then this punk gives the most ignorant post game interview I've ever seen and the fact that people think that's ok cements the argument. The league has now a large cohort of fans who act this way and think this is ok. Look back at the hall of famers from other eras.... Would Ronnie Lott act like that? Would Kelly, Smith, or Thomas? The nfl is a reflection of the worst of our culture and society and it's turning many people away. Go to a Bills game. It's evident. I didn't have seasons last year because it's out of control and no longer fun... Sherman's act is repeated every game in every section in upper deck and end zones. Life imitating morons. And one of the people watching last night with us was a lifelong Hawks fan who thought Sherman was neither funny nor profession and downright embarrassing.

First, as a lifelong Bills fan, I actually understand the need to get something positive from your NFL experience and don't actually hold that against you. That's your right and I think, if you truly follow through and ignore them, AND the Steelers actually continue to win, you'll be better mentally for it. However, you couldn't be more misininformed on the decline of Buffalo relative to other cities and the cities you have mentioned. I have spent the better part of the last 4-5 years focusing entirely on "decline" and you are nothing more than the average guy on the street when it comes to knowledge of decline. You read the paper occasionally, you see some vacancy, you complain about taxes, you mumble about bad governance (trust me, much of continued problem is self-inflicted) but you now zero actual facts. So many things you mention are flat out wrong... like the fact that NYC doesn't throw us an occasional bone... without them much upstate would struggle mightily. The economic production and revenue generated in the greater NYC area dwarfs upstate and it subsidized US not the other way around. You need a geography less. There is a difference between "city" and region. You use them interchangeably to make your flawed argument. Looking at cities alone (the legal entity just like the city of Buffalo) every single city you mentioned.... Cleveland, Pittsburgh, St. Louis, Cincy and Baltimore lost population form 2000 to 2010. Cleveland in fact lost 17%! These "cities" are very much still in their decade over decade decline. Their regions are a different story, some with some minor growth, some with steadier growth. But by and large, the cities have major problems that impact the region, but I don't have time for an urban geography lesson to explain that. They all to a large extent ahev major problems with intra-regional competition that is good for single places but bad for the whole. The fragmented regionalism that holds us back holds them back... you can move forward a singular economic entity in the global economy, which regions, when its constituted with self-interested communities... think Amherst's tax breaks that steal business from other communities... that doesn't make us better. But keep on thinking somehow we're alone, that all other declining former manufacturing and industrial cities have figured it out.

OCinBuffalo good post. I took my fair share of stats in my to get my phd and I use them sparingly... mainly regression and spatial, so I have a grasp of statistical modeling and prediction. Anyway I've been so annoyed with the general discourse of analytics because frankly, no one really knows what it is, can't explain it, couldn't apply it, etc. Good laymen's outline. It pains me to hear WGR55 people screaming for always going for it on 4 and 1 because "analytics" say so. No, probability says so... Unless you can explain how down and distance or location on the field change or some other variable impacts the probability and therefore the decision. But a blanklet "always for go for it on 4 and 1" that hold all else equal is not analytics. Quoting someone else's analytics makes you seem smart I guess but I'd be impressed if someone in the local media actual could DO IT rather than regurgitate it. Everyone here would be wise, as a follow up to the "beer and diapers" example, read Steven Leavitt's "Freakonomics." Although no football examples (there is a sumo one), it provides some good real world example of the power of statistics and using big data and algorithms. I certainly wasn't going to tackle writing the response you did, although 3 drinks probably helped! Oh, and I've always wanted to develop a model on whether or not QB draft position and college attributes have any bearing at all NFL success...assuming of course everyone QB played on the same NFL team under the same offence with the same coached and same teammates : ) Then of course one adding in team and coach specific variables (whatever those are!). Anyway, that's enough stats consideration for me for the day.

Lots of incorrect/misleading/unsubstantiated claims here but two need to be checked a bit. To this comment that only 8%-10% of revenue producing athletes.... that's the percentage READING BELOW A THIRD GRADE LEVEL... not those simply not qualified to be in school. So the total percentage of these studnets who can't read at a college level has to be much great. And if "you're fine with that" is it also OK when its a state school using taxpayer dollars to subsidize an athlete who in many cases never be a professional and give you zero return on your "investment" and takes potential scholarship money away from academically-deserving student... after all is it an institute of higher education. I was a TA at an D1 school and had starters from the football team in classes who could barely write, and frankly, am annoyed/embarrassed/disgusted that these students got pushed through the sytsem and have a degree from the same academically-respected university as my doctorate. College is a "rotten scam" sounds like bitterness. College is what you put into it. If you are 18 and think you're playing with fake money and college is a party, you're likely to take some time in the real world realizing you wasted your money and those who didn't are taking your jobs. It's about competition, something students and the workforce have forgotten. Might be rotten if the economy is struggling but cream rises to the top. What's really rotten is the K-12 system that forces kids into academic programs when they should be forced into trades. Not everyone, sorry is ready for college and in some cases won't ever be ready. But they can learn something viable in the marketplace. No one wants to work value collar jobs anymore but there are jobs in manufacturing, machining, etc. that can't be filled not just because these kids don't have skills but because they are taught the wrong skills. We live in a country where everyone gets a trophy. No parent is willing to admit, maybe, just maybe, their kid isn't college material and might be better served getting trained as a surveyor at a community college (afterall, CCs are intended to take those not interested in 4 year academic programs and get them job skills, sadly they're considered the place where dumb kids go) or some training in BOCES. Or hell, skip college altogether and start working a trade and work your way up. I don't everyone is prepared for college and I don't think everyone should go. But just as we don't blame Apple because people on social services have iphones, don't blame colleges and universities for the failures of parents, the students, and the K-12 system to guide and prepare students properly. No one is forced to go to college. You choose to go to better your life and earnings. If you didn't figure out that being an average student on college wasn't going to prepare you for the job market, that's your fault.

So a kid with a blog and subscription to All-22 is an expert? Got it. Why isn't he in a scouting dept again? Got that too. No one should judge a kid on 10 or so games. He didn't put up stupid numbers but still had more TDs than INTs and the last time I checked, you didn't get your first job out of college and after your first 30 hours on the job, get ripped apart for not being a senior level manager. Take a breather, let the kid get a full offseason under the team... he had 4 months from the draft until he start week 1 and much of that was time he couldn't be with coaches or was injured in camp. If someone said he'd 10 games, put up the numbers he did, showed some flashes and played like a rookie typically does, I'd have taken it. If you think all QBs come in and wow you the first season, you're fooling yourself. Andrew Luck, which most everyone here would have given up an entire draft to have and was a supposed one in a lifetime prospect had a decent rookie year with a way better team. Luck was 339-627 for 4,374, 23 TDs, 18 INTs, 9 fumbles and a 76.5 rating. If you simply extrapolate EJs 10 games (counting Clevealnd as a complete game which could be argued short changes him) worth of stats into 16 games you get: 288 completion on 480 attempts for 3,155 yards, 18 TDs, 14 INTs, 10 fumbles (rounded) and the rating of 77.7. Luck threw the ball a lot more, hence the larger numbers. But being a player everyone knew was somewhat of raw project compared to a player everyone called an All-Pro on draft day, it's not like EJ was a disaster this year. He basically had Ryan Tannehill's rookie year and if he progresses in year two like Tannehill did, which is playing for playoff spot at home in week 17, we'd all be happy. It'd be great if he did and the team was patient enough to groom him and let him grow. Everything in the all-22 and these no-name analysts analysis appears to be correctable and given we knew he was raw, the big issue is can he learn and progress.

Underwhelmed and confused by this guy all year. He lets is undrafted QB air it out numerous times today but handcuffs his first rounder for 5 games. Continue to not like what I see from Whackit

"Season altering" really? This was a 3-5 team. What exactly was altered? They aren't good enough.

+1 This is a bad team, own it.

If youre gonna talk Analytics, show us the probabilities for each play. Just stating "analytics" doesn't automatically make your argument credible, sorry. I'm so sick of analytical being used by everyone when 99% of the population couldn't explain even the simplest statistical method.

The Chiefs won. There is no "should have won." You win and lose based on how you play. Moral victories get you 13 years without the playoffs. I will say that they played well on D but stupid mistakes killed them. Tuel isn't an nfl QB and never will be, cut him and move on. TJ Graham isn't very good either. if you make honest assessments of this team rather than emotional, homer assessments you realize they have a lot of subpar players. And I'll say it again.. Stevie Johnson is a guy walk awa from if I was running this team... Waive, cut, trade. He never came back to tr me catch the defender on the pick 6 and pulled up on the pass late that was almost picked. He's overrated and has minimal value commensurate to his salary. More interested in himself than the team. Not sure why guys love him but if he had Freddy's passion and commitment he'd be a legit player.

Agreed. He should be be waived.

I was close on the score but dead on with the turnover. It's a script constantly followed and this week was no different. Complete collapse after the pick 6.

That's an NFL playcall? 3rd and 10 down by 10 and you run a draw. Losers call right there.