zonabb

Hindsight is sooooo easy. Everyone can look back in their life and see mistakes or choices they would have made differently. Ultimately, it wasn't a panic move. It was a gamble calling it waste after 15 games is a joke and not even worthy of a discussion. This kid has been fantastic, playing hurt, with a garbage OL and a mediocre QB. He's going to have a 1,000 yards and has already bested the rookie yards record for the team. I still say its a damn good pick, even with giving up a 1.

QBR is junk. I just read the ESPN explanation and although it makes somewhat sense, my guess is it has some major data quality issues. It uses something called a Clutch Index and the info provided uses phrases such as "Maximum clutch indices are about 3.0, and minimum indices are about 0.3." About? That's not very precise. Also, their conclusion states "What underlies QBR is an understanding of how football works and a lot of detailed situational data. What it yields are results that should reflect that." Should? Stats geeks will tell you they are never certain. QBR is certainly questionable measure if, as itr states, puts weight on plays the contribute to winning yet Locker lost with a QBR higher than a winning QBR and nearly a perfect 100. The goal of a description summary measure (an index as this is) is actually that they should be easy to understand (this is). But I'll come back to data quality... specifically two keys to data quality: validity and accuracy. Is this measure valid, that is does it measure what it is supposed to? The example above leaves you wondering. Is it accurate, is there agreement between the measure and the true value? When it's supposed to measure the contributions the QB makes to winning, not so much. Actually, no matter what measure you try to develop, it'll have shortcomings. It's like a stock index. It might give you a positive value even when underlying stocks in the index are garbage. The bottomline is, ESPN wanted to make inroads into analystics. What better way than to create something that measures the most analyzed position in the most popular league. So it went something like this: ESPN Bigwig: We need to get into analytics. Program Director: Why? ESPN Bigwig: Everyone else is going it? Program Director: How? ESPN Bigwig: Find some data cruncher to make up some measurement of QB performance. Program Director: They have that, it’s a rating system, with a high possible score of 158.3. ESPN Bigwig: Well, that’s an odd number. Find someone to create a rating with a top score of 100. Program Director: What will it measure? ESPN Bigwig: Who cares, we’re not after a prize in economics or math, we talking football and we want a piece of this game and it doesn’t even have to be accurate, it just has to be ours. Very good read on the worth of QBR http://www.coldhardf...r-tv-stat/7978/

More of this on Brandon? Seriously? Have you not seen the dead horse? The common denominator was RCW, end of story. Brandon's marching order were from on high. He was a puppet, for better or worse, just like everyone else who is beneath their boss, owner,. CEO, etc., Ivy league or not. It's been discussed and mentioned forever of RCW's micromanagement. So that is now, with all due respect, no long an issue. Was he qualified when he was hired? Who I am to say. Is he qualified now, sure. Can he operate the business side of the football team, yep. What more can the guy do to make you happy? We haven't made the playoffs in 15 years. He wasn't the guy drafting players and coaching last I checked. We have 40,000+ season ticket holders in a region that has had stagnant population and a declining population since 1970. And let me say it once more.... no playoffs in 15 years and a very good base of season ticket holders who have every right to walk away yet somehow, the business side has managed to keep them (myself included) coming year after failing year. If anything, he and Wilson deserve an award for duping us into coming back and spending our money to watch a tire fire. What matters in the NFL is talent and coaching. We had a team bereft of talent across the board for most of this run of futility. It wasn't entirely coaching to blame for JP Losman's suckitude or the Erik Flowers pick (feel free to fill in your favorite horrible player). You need the find the nexus between talent and coaching to get anywhere. Coaching hires and bad GMs have cost this team. And again, RCW made the final call on everything. Brandon should stay on the business side; Whaley as the GM and Marrone one more year assuming he cans Hackett. Does anyone, in all honesty, think that a new coach without a QB will result in a different outcome? Is someone magically going to turn Orton into a playoff QB or fix Manuel? You don't fix QBs. They come with the skillset and you might finely tune or hone it, but you don't fix fatal flaws. It's the biggest fallacy in sports. Anytime a QB comes out with a mechanical flow, an accuracy issues, poor decision-making, weak arm, he's destined for the scrap heap. Jameis Winston is the next one... bank it.

The path of least resistance is a metaphor for laziness and apathy and doing the least amount of work. I think you need to think on it a bit for your example. Your argument that 1) franchise QBs are hard to find and 2) rebuilding the offensive line is a good idea is hardly indicative of the path of least resistance. Rather, it's more a strategic decision based on an understanding of how a to improve a football team. So really it's supply and demand and probability. Simply, the supply of quality offensive lineman is closer to the demand than the supply of franchise QBs is to the number of franchises. So, the probability that you can improve your offense is higher if while trying to find that franchise QB (low probability given low supply, draft position and the fact no one trades them or allows them to become free agents) you also focus on improving the offensive line because the probability is high that you can get a couple guards via the draft and free agency. The path of least resistance would actually be to do nothing while assuming Chris Williams will improve; Kouandijo is an NFL guard; and EJ Manuel is a franchise QB.

Love it when entitled spoiled brats act like idiots and get arrested. Hope Ole Miss cuts him today and he gets what he deserves... a life as Uncle Rico where at 40 he realizes what he had and that his life sucks slaving away at some crappy job he got with a college education he didn't deserve... assuming after he gets cut he actually goes back to school. Class A dbag.

Hell yeah he would. Didn't like him as HC but he'd be a very good OC.

+1. He's not Rodgers but with his statuesque mobility, you need an OL and this OL is two guards away from being a good MAC OL.

Blame the guy who was put into a position to run a football team by an owner who didn't care he didn't have the football experience? Got it. It's like your boss coming to you and saying "Hey, I know you've stood there driving bolts into engine blocks for 15 years but do you want to run this entire factory?" You say yes because the money is better and your boss has faith (albeit totally misplaced). Brandon is a good marketer and savvy businessman and I think the Pegula's will recognize that value and put him in the right position to continue doing what he does. I think the personnel department is better Whaley, despite the Kujo whiff, are showing good decision-making and player evaluation skills. They've drafted some good ones, found some good ones off other rosters (intrigued by Gray as a TE), traded for Hughes, etc. It's a legit dept and I hope they keep it together. They need a president of football ops and that person will keep Whaley not because he's told to but because he's good. I suspect that the first conversation of the offseason is "What are we doing in 2015 with this tire fire of an offense?" And the response better not be "Nate will improve."

Huh? Spiller has horrible vision or a complete fear of cutting the ball up field. He consistently seeks to outrun everyone wide to the sidelines rather than fight up field for tough yards. That's been his MO since day one. It's not on the OL or the coach all the time, it's his style. Why does Fred consistently perform better despite have what we might all agree are inferior skills to CJ? Because he runs more north/south and fights for every yard and isn't trying to hit a homerun without being tackled. Spiller is a colossal bust and exhibit one on why a first round RB is a waste. He's been outplayed by the RB taken a few picks later and the team would have been better off with Iupati or any number of players still on the board. Would they have been better with Iupati and Ben Tate instead of Spiller and Torell Troup? Not playing revisionist but it speaks to the bad drafting of this team and the waste of a pick that Spiller is. Can't wait until someone signs him and this team is burdening by the need to utilize him to justify the puck. Let it go, let it go......

Absolutely abortion by the offense. At some point relying one the D to win a game would come back to bite them and today was the day. A below average day by the D, based on their standard, and an average day by the offense came at the worst time. Those complaining about Orton need to watch the game again. When the first read For him is a play that relies on ru after that catch with an oline that sucks, whose fault is that? Yeah orton is limited but today an offensive coordinator showed us what a good game plan looks like with a limited rookie QB. It's a bad combination of a bad offense coordinator with no skills calling plays for a QB with limitations where the play calling fails to recognize the QB and OL limitations. Garbage. Fire Hackett. I'm not renewing my seasons with this OC still on board.

Michigan isn't a more prestigious job than Oakland or Jacksonville or Tampa... or dare I say Buffalo? Sorry but with the amount of publicity that NCAAF gets, the money flowing into Michigan (I saw they are among the top revenue generating athletic departments and one of the few that actually makes money!), and the storied history, that job outranks these bottom dwelling NFL gigs. NFL owners have zero patience (coaches being fired after one and two seasons) and being competitive is more about talent, and especially at the NFL level, having a god QB. In college, if you're a good recruiter at an excellent, big, historic program (like Michigan) and can coach em up, you're good for a long time. Plus, you can build a winner quickly because it's perpetual free agency with nothing to offer other than, what is it, 80 scholarships that the other colleges offer? The days of the NFL being the pinnacle of coaching are over. College football is every bit as much a billion dollar enterprise as the NFL and as someone who rarely if ever watches it, I can name 5 college coaches at major, elite, prestigious programs and I honestly don't know the names of 5 NFL coaches...Oakland, Jacksonville, Houston, Detroit, Minnesota. And we played four of these teams! If I were Marrone, and I was offer the Michigan job, even with a slight pay raise, I'd take it in one second. He'll get the time to rebuild, his approach to accountability and responsibly works in college, and I think he's a good (not great) coach/manager.

My trouble with Simon's line of questioning was not that it wasn't a legit question, it was him suggesting, in a blanket statement, that fans are asking about this and its their main focus (to that effect). First off, last I checked, everyone's MAIN focus right now is how this team can make the playoffs. After that, the bigger questions are what the QB situation will be like next year and any coaching change comes after that, and likely after the OC question. The line of questioning was just out of line for this week. If he wants to ask the question, say "I want to know" don't hide behind unnamed, fictitious calls and tweeters. Man up and say "I think the guy sucks because A, B, and C and I want to know if he'll be back." Callers and listeners aren't paid subscribers, they won't stop listening if their voice isn't heard through Simon's line if questioning. And Brandon frankly cares about what his buyers and season tickets holders do.... and those of us that go occasionally or to every game will vote with out feet. And really, if he thinks these half-witted tools that call his show, the whiner line, or tweet at him represent the whole of Bills fans, he's a bigger idiot than I think he already is. The intelligent, rational fans aren't focused on that and on their Xmas Wish List, Marrone being fired I would bet in a survey (Someone do it!) ranks behind talent.... getting a better QB, getting some better OL, getting a weapon at TE, and probably firing Hackett. Put another way, if the organization solved those issues I'd bet most would be happy to see Marrone give it a try for another year. Those calling for Marrone's head who think that a new coach will have substantially better outcomes with this QB, line, and slow, mediocre TEs are fooling themselves. But then again, I've heard these callers butcher the English language, mispronounce player names, and contradict themselves plenty to know this line of thinking exists. It's actually funny that this constituency is the one Simon is suggesting are both right and deserve an answer!

They were from fine with what I saw but as I walked around in the lots before and then into the game, I looked at license plates and the vast majority of parties with large numbers of Packers fans had Ontario and even some Quebec (saw one Iowa plate) plates. Not an observation about their actions but more along the lines of what I've said with people who start following the EPL. 99% of EPL fans you find here lives Man City, Man U, Arsenel and Chelsea and you have to struggle to find Burnley, QPR, WBA, or Sunderland fans. So my hypothesis is, and most of these were younger fans, early 20-30s, they've become NFL fans and picked the Packers because they've been good recently. And that brings out a certain attitude in someone who has never gone through the depths of failure we have that when combined with a lack of no humility; alcohol; and the personality of a bandwagon jumper and you'll get your fair share of idiots.

I was thinking about this yesterday too... and was wondering 1) do they have to use a tee and 2) can they use a holder whenever they want? The example above is interesting but my idea was based on golf.... can't there be a way the kicker could essentially kick an 11-year flop shot? Kick the ball up in the air and basically make it a jump ball? If they must use a tee, I wonder if kicking the tee out from under it, making the tee the "divot" would produce that kick? Probably been tried but it seems like a jump ball is a better option to get your hands on the ball before at the same time as the receiving team than kicking it to someone 10 yards away who is waiting for it to hit them.

34-10 Packers

10:45 PM no mention of Bills-Jets game on ESPN.com but the Manziel non-story is still up. Media is click and ad driven. Sad.

Good zinger. Detroit had seen a whopping 61% decline in population from its peak. Your beloved revitalizing (not) Buffalo? 55% and another 1% from 2010 to 2013. Buffalo is sooooooo much better.... If you close your eyes and only read buffalo rising while never leaving Elmwood unless it's to ride your fake fixie to get mustache wax and skinny jeans on grant street.

Well, absolute values are impressive.... but you can't compare a city that was once 1.8 million to one that peaked at 580,000. Once you standardize the data it's a lot closer than the absolute values are. Poster child yes, worse off than Buffalo, hardly. And anyway, where is that data from? I've spent the last 5 years researching vacancy and abandonment, I can say that those numbers seem off. For one, you're using three terms that have three different meanings. Census counts "vacant units" not vacant "houses" given that in many large cities, a good deal of the market is multiple units. That matters because population and vacancy are correlated at the unit level, not the building level.. that is as population increases, the number of units should as well, not necessary the number of "houses." Census has no reliable count for "abandoned." No one does. When Census reports "vacant" they report "vacant for sale," "vacant for rent" and "vacant other." Researchers generally consider the "vacant other" to be abandoned but there is not reliable certainty that it the case. Empty is never used. I get your point, Detroit's in rough shape. But Buffalo is in no better condition and in fact, I'd put my money on a transformative Detroit turnaround before Buffalo. More foundation money, more groups working together, more national focus. As long as the same political cronyism that has exacerbated Buffalo's economic collapse and population loss continues to run the show, true renewal, not bricks and mortar, will be impossible. You can't build out of this mess. Poverty is up, educational attainment is down, and more of the city is in a downward spiral and than an upward trajectory. I know the major discourse in the city is renewal, but that's being lead by a) politically motivated people like the mayor (who's done next to nothing policy wide in office to call any of what's happening his doing) and b) the white affluent population that is either benefiting financially from it (the developer class) or enjoying the fruits of it (gentrifying hipsters in Elmwood). Outside of that, 51% of the city's children are in poverty, income is stagnant (may be declining, I don';t have the current data in front of me), and population is declining.. still. And it would be declining a lot more if not for the large numbers of immigrants coming into the city, who work hard in their neighborhoods but generally have the same poverty and educational issue as many others in the city. The myth of a great inversion of wealth to the city is just that, a widely-accepted yet never proven myth.

Oh, you mean like London. Oh wait, you mean like Toronto. NFL will always do whats best for the NFL and not the fans. No reason whatsoever this game shouldn't be in Syracuse. First, it would reduce the travel for the Jets (minimally) and then the Bills. Second, it would allow both teams to actually get their fans into the stadium. Third, the CBS production vans are here and they'd have to travel less. But alas, putting a few dollars more in the pockets of another NFL owner and concessionairre matters more. Protect the $hield.

Was that supposed to be a shot at those cities because the big three for vacant and abandoned homes includes those two and Buffalo. Pot meet kettle.

It's the NFL, "awful look" is part of what they're good at!!! But in this case as a private entity, there is no connection between what they do and rescuing/helping people since no county/govt help is being deployed there. There biggest problem probably is going to be finding private contractors to help, most are working away in the hardest hit areas.

Amazing how people are so quick to fire everyone. The rate of snow fall plus the number of trucks plus the number of lane miles plus the speed the trucks can travel in this case meant it was impossible to keep up with. I'm sure you'd be the same people who'd complain when your municipality suggested a nice tax increase to buy more equipment than they needed just in case they get the storm of a millennium. You'd claim "fear-mongering" and the government being out of its mind. Some people are only happy when they're complaining and pointing the finger.

First of all, this guy is one of the kings of lazy use of other people's useless stats. It's easy to throw out other's work to try to seem intelligent, as everyone at WGR55 does. Media people who spend their life's covering games (not real life, games) are somehow people we should turn to for advanced stats? I think not. They're trying to gain intellectual capital without actually having any. This is a case in point. When you can't even properly name the statistic, it shows an underlying weakness in thinking, namely actually understanding WTF you're talking about and reporting. The stat this buffoon is referring to is Expect Points Added Per Play, not Estimated Points Per Play. Stats are about precision, accuracy and validity and when you can't even take the time to know WTF stat your even referring to, it strips you of any credibility you may have had to discuss, refer to, or use stats to support your argument.

Garbage. The entire goal of the site owners is to sell ads and increase clicks and revenue. They just chose hackish sports "reporting" as their method of moneymaking.

Hard to take your thoughts on statistics and data seriously when this is your measure for decline... deep throws. So by your logic, because he can't throw deep as well as before, he's in decline. Like it or not as a measure of anything, but it does offer a standard measure of a QB over time, his current rating is a 102.0, fourth highest of his career. And by the way I was taught statistics in grad school, decline is a constant, that is year over year the variable being measure declines in value. Not so in Brady's case. He did however decline, again if we only use the rating, the prior four seasons. But his overall play now is certainly admirable and maybe, just maybe, because throwing the deep ball is not required on every play, we can't and shouldn't consider him in decline because he doesn't do that one aspect of his job well while performing well in all others?? And the reason why these measures are, and should be, held to a higher standard than the eyeball test is the reason why statistics we developed in the first place... the eyeball test is worthless and wildly inaccurate and imprecise. In my mind (of two graduate degrees), most measures have very little value other than as simple descriptive stats that are not connected in any statistically significant way to wins and losses. Stats that matter, and maybe they exist but I don't waste my on frivolous indulgence in football stats, would be ones that could model or predict wins and losses and outcomes on given plays based on a set of variables. Show me a method that uses a standardized method for grading all offensive lineman on a play and how their individual scores predict running outcomes and you're on to something. Otherwise, it's basically a bunch of data miners selling "magic" to those who are easily wowed. Give this garbage to any college statistics instructor and it surely gets what it deserves, a good chuckle. I think the worst part is, it's being taken so religiously by so many (including most of the blowhards at WGR55), that it's actually doing a disservice to high-level statistical analysis. The reason why so little exists in academic literature for this type of NFL analysis is because the game is so random with so many moving parts, that it's hard to predict much. Go on Google Scholar (free) and look. There's actually a lot more interesting work on predicting player success.