gumby
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Posts posted by gumby
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Why can't Nix get another kick at the can? Isn't Regier about to start his 4th rebuild?
That's just part of the charm of being a Buffalo sports fan.
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NFL will have to implement a new rule against "groping the kicker."
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Statistics.....love em.
Using years 2001-2010....
27 QBs were selected.
9 made pro bowls
33% Sounds good!!!
(Ignoring that one of those was Vince Young....and another was Jay Cutler....both being players that many would say are not gonna be "the guy")
But wait....
3 of the 9 QBs selected who made pro bowls were #1 picks.
Therefore the results for non #1 QBs are....
6 out of 24
25% Sounds fine!!!
But wait again....
3 of the 6 QB selected who made pro bowls that weren't #1 picks were selected between #2 & #4
Therefore the results for non Top 4 QBs are...
3 out of 21
14% or 1 in 7 chance. Sounds crap!!!
The chance of us getting pro bowl production from our 1st round QB selection is 1 in 7.....and much worse as you go into rounds 2, 3 etc.
The reality is that it takes on average selecting 7 1st round QBs to find a pro bowler unless you have a top 4/5 selection.
As for your 77.7% become 3+ year starters.....of course they do, for several obvious reasons that I can't be bothered to spell out.
Btw....it's a crapshoot with virtually every position except for perhaps interior offensive linemen.
I don't dispute your numbers. But I think you got the wrong idea from my post. I'm not taking a position one way or another in regards to drafting a QB at #8. I just don't like the idea that it's riskier to pick a QB over another position.
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You take the best player available in my opinion. I think you have to be careful with thinking that because a few rookie QB's have been very successful in the league that it's now the new trend in the NFL. Wilson stepped into an organization that had already made the playoffs without him - they have an AWESOME defense and a great running game. Kaep stepped into an organization that had already made the playoffs as well - they have an AWESOME defense and a great running game.
RGIII is an elite talent much the same way Cam is. The skins made the playoffs but the Panthers haven't.
Luck is a once in a generation type player.
I'm just hesitant to think that this is some kind of new trend where the norm is to expect IMMEDIATE success from a rookie QB. I think we would be setting ourselves up for disaster as fans.
Players like Dalton, Flacco, RGIII, Luck, Kaep, Wilson etc have all been successful. Players like Ponder (I don't care if he made the playoffs), Tannehill, Gabbert, Locker, Sanchez, McCoy, Quinn, Freeman, Clausen etc. have struggled.
at the end of the day it's a crapshoot.
the 49er's obviously didn't think that Kaep was their "franchise guy" b/c they didn't take him at #7 that year...seahawks no way in hell thought Wilson was their guy in the 3rd round..same thing with the bengals when they took Dalton in the 2nd. They all took the best player available with their initial picks and then took the best player available again in the later rounds. Difference between them and us is that their gms/coaches/scouts were smart/lucky and we weren't.
Why does it seem to be a "crapshoot" when a QB is involved? Taking a QB in the 1st round is no more risky than any other position.
In the last 10 years 30% of QBs selected in the 1st round made it to at least 1 pro bowl selection. All other positions combined came to 30.7%. Not much of a difference.
77.7% of QBs selected in a 10 year period from 2001-2010 have at the very least became a 3 year starter in the league.
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I love this line of thinking. So if Barkley should be avoided because he went to USC, and as we all know that school can't produce QBs, then where should the Bills find their next QB?
The answer is obvious. What university has the most QB starts in NFL history? What university has thrown for the most TDs in NFL history. What university is known as the "cradle of QBs" and Quaterback U?
Purdue University thats who.
So using the reliable method of picking a QB based on school the choice is clear. Robert Marve should be the pick. Added bonus is that he's the son of former Bill Eugene Marve.
So what could possibly go wrong?
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What do you think Bills fans, how does Coach Marrone look in Bills colors?
Are you hoping to be on Project Runway?
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Dalton has always struck me as Cinderella at the ball and you're just waiting for midnight.
I wasn't going to do this but phypon's comment up above calls for it.
Q: what did Cinderella do when she got to the ball?
A: she gagged.
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If you have been following the quarterbacks in this draft class you will notice a lot of stinkers. Here's the breakdown,
Currently Landry Jones is stinking up the Cotton Bowl. Pass on this one.
Geno Smith sucked the big one in the snow New Era Pinstripe bowl. Pass.
Mike Glennon 3 picks in a loss in the Music City Bowl. Pass.
Barkley out with an injury, a Sanchez clone. Pass.
There is only 3 I would even consider drafting and none in the first round.Tyler Bray, Tyler Wilson and Ryan Nassib. The Bills should take the Best Available player with the 8th pick in the draft. In the second round take one of the 3 QB's.
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Only following college QBs in the bowl games is really not following them at all.
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Just for the heck of it, here's one more:
Bill Belichick
Season Team Record
1991 Cleveland Browns 6-10
1992 Cleveland Browns 7-9
1993 Cleveland Browns 7-9
1994 Cleveland Browns 11-5
1995 Cleveland Browns 5-11
That looks like a head coaching career that's DOOMED to a bunch of 6-10 seasons...
Thanks for the info. Also it can be noted that Marv Levy had a .425 winning % in KC before the Bills hired that retread.
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I think it matters less who the next HC is than who the next QB is. Until the Bills find a legitimate NFL QB none of these guys will be too succesful.
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In the entire history of the franchise the Bills have never selected a QB with their first pick in any draft.
Hopefully in 2013 the Bills begin taking the QB position seriously.
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"One morning I shot an elephant in my pajamas. How he got in my pajamas, I don't know."
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Knox was the rock solid believer in the run, run, pass, kick offense. He did, however, get the Bills to the playoffs. Still, I seem to remember this Levy guy who was pretty good.
No...no he wasn't. He was a failed HC at KC who was out of the league for a while before the Bills tapped him.
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I agree he is a way better coach than what we have had for a long time.
If the Bills somehow got Gruden it would be their best coaching hire since Chuck Knox.
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There have been several studies that show major league sports teams (NFL especially) are an economic drain on a community. There is a lot to be said for the entertainment value and/or the pride such a team can bring to an area. That does have a certain value it's just not an economic one.
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Who makes the playoffs sooner???
If you can tell me who Gailey's QB is I'll let you know.
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Two months ago I left the Buffalo area for the Pacific NW. When I tell people I'm from New York they immediately think NYC and take shots at the Jets. When I correct them and say I'm from Buffalo and follow the Bills I get a look of pity and something usually along the lines of "Oh wow, I'm really sorry."
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To the OP: Am I a bad fan because I enjoy watching the Bills in the same way as I like watching the Three Stooges? There's something charming and enjoyable about watching a bunch of incompetent boobs bumble their way through another misadventure.
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Good thing the Bills had such an easy schedule this year.
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You can't take away Brady's weapons. They'll just be replaced with new WR and suddenly they will become stars. It's Brady that makes those receivers go not the other way around.
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So until we have a guy who is arguably the best quarterback to ever play the game, we can't compete? Furthermore, quarterback quality is a highly predictive metric?
If we upgrade significantly at QB the Bills can easily compete for a wildcard spot. The division not so much. Since Brady came into the AFC East how many division crowns has he won. The only time the Pats didn't capture the division in the last 10 years was when Brady was injured for the year. Coincidence? I don't believe in coincidences.
Look at the division in the 90's before Brady. The 2 best QBs were in Buffalo and Miami. Guess who dominated the division then? Since then the league has become even more of a QB driven league. Having a great defense or a top notch RB is no guarantee of the playoffs. The top 10 defenses right now are Pittsburgh, San Fran, Seattle, Denver, Chicago, Cincinnati, Houston, NY Jets, San Diego, St. Louis. How many of those teams are making the playoffs? About half? The top RB this year is Peterson. How are the Vikings chances at the post season?
This isn't the NFL of the 70's, 80's and even the 90's. There are no great teams like there was back then. In 2012 all teams are flawed to one degree or another. What is needed is a QB who can overcome his teams flaws and still find a way to win. Until the Bills can find that guy they're barely treading water.
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So, until the Bills find their own guy who is comprable to a guy for which a strong argument can be made that he's the very best ever, they won't be a winner.
Got it.
Ummmmm...yeah. That's about the gist of it.
At the start of any NFL season you can pretty much pick whose going to win a division by who has the best QB.
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Oh look it's the "we don't have Tom Brady and I won't be happy til we do" argument. Dose of realism here pal, odds are we won't next year either. This is this response I'd expect from a guy who has his hopes crushed when he loses the powerball and pouts all day.
To another poster who said we can agree Fitz isn't the answer. As lame as this sounds, that depends on the question. Do I think he's a hall of famer, like everyone who calls me a Fitz homer says? I don't. I think he's an average QB. Just average. I'd rather build a team around Fitz until we find a more solid QB to plug into our system. You can't build around a guy like Losman and Edwards. It doesn't work.
Fitz is exactly what a young team needs and in 2-3 years, he'll be replaced by our answer.
God help him if the new guy plays like crap though. We'll have everyone here singing songs about how much we miss Fitz, and his QB skills besides his arm.
Hindsight is 20/20.
I agree that more than likely the Bills won't have a Tom Brady next year. But here's a little reality right back at you. Until the Bills do find one who is comparable to Brady they will never win the division until he retires. That leaves the Bills fighting for one of two wildcard spots and unless all the stars perfectly align Fitzpatrick will not be able to get them there.
So it's perfectly understandable why Bills fans are impatient. The bottom line is that in the entire history of the Bills franchise they have never placed a priority on the QB. In 50+ years of the team they have drafted either a HB or DB with their first overall pick 50% of the time. They have never used that pick to select a QB.
The problem for many fans isn't that they don't have a top tier QB. The problem is it doesn't seem they are even interested in getting one. In a QB driven league that's a recipe for losing.
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What has Reid done that is so impressive? Without McNabb he's been terrible. I would stay away from Reid and his drama.
How many coaches are any good without a top flight QB?
Belichick was nothing as a HC until Brady landed in his lap. Shanahan was great when he had Elway not so much when he retired. He goes to Washington and wasn't winning now he has RG3 and he's starting to look a lot better. Dungy was a decent enough coach with the Bucs he goes to Indy has Manning and suddenly he's a coaching savant. I could go on and on but I think you get my point.
I realize after yesterday's disaster with Gailey this may be a little controversial but I think a franchise QB is far more important to a teams success than just about any HC you want to name.
The Bills are NOT one of the worst NFL teams.
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
During the entire history of the Bills haven't they drafted a RB or DB 50% of the time with their first pick. Not once have they ever drafted a QB with their first pick.