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Everything posted by Mango
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How did the Patriots maintain a top team for 17 years?
Mango replied to Success's topic in The Stadium Wall
Just as a percentage of cap, his highest year with the Pats was about 17%. Which is Josh's "onboarding" year into his big deal, and relatively low. A lot of years Brady gave the team another 10% of the entire cap back. That's right. 10% of the entire salary cap, not his pay cut. That would be $22.5M per year in today's terms. I don't fault Josh's money, or any QB/player. You get one shot to set your family up to have generational wealth. You have to take it. What Brady did was remarkable. His last year or two TB is what you get when you have to pay a top flight QB top flight money. His discount is a very important piece to his story. -
How did the Patriots maintain a top team for 17 years?
Mango replied to Success's topic in The Stadium Wall
There were years where Eli was making $10-12M more than Brady and the cap was $120M. Could you imagine the impact of Josh giving up $20M per year right now? In Brady's highest paid years he took about as much cap space as Josh will for 2023 which is 17%. In a lot of years he is in the 5-10% range which is wildly low for the production compared to todays QB's. It is certainly a complicated answer, but I wouldn't discount this. -
Unsure of Gabes ability here. We just never seem to use him here. Chicken and egg, I won’t take a stand one way or the other. But I am tempted to agree with you. I do think Shakir has a knack for it. In the limited snaps he got, he seems to be very QB friendly. Not to beat a dead horse, but I thought Hodgins flashed here too in camp. It clearly translated to live game speed. I am put 99% of the Shakir/Hodgins issue on McBeane. But given Josh’s ask for Brown, Beasley, Dorsey, and Barkley, I have something nagging that there may be “some” culpability on the QB. But that may just be my frustrations from the season talking still.
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It’s not stat padding, it’s keeping drives alive and making defenses pay for making certain decisions. It is a very real, regular, and necessary part of playing the QB position.
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The QB asked for Dorsey and Barkley too. There is certainly a grey area between taking your QB's wishes into consideration and granting him everything. The offense was high scoring and had a lot of chunk plays to it. But it was certainly not methodical. I thought Allen's request for those guys was more an attempt for him to get his groove back and less a condemnation on the guys in house.
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Kurt Warner's "Study Ball" review of Bengals game.
Mango replied to Maine-iac's topic in The Stadium Wall
I haven’t had the time to go through Warners breakdown. At scale, I totally agree with you. 2 weeks is conservative for how long some have been pounding the table. But from what I watched on A22 this year the Bengals game was one of Allens less egregious games this season. The Divisional was a full system failure from FO to OC, OL, QB, and WR. -
I mean, he’s a 9 handicap. He’s an impressive golfer. But 9 isn’t pro.
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I am really frustrated with Beane and have been for a few seasons now. But Christ, if the Pegula run Sabres have taught us anything it’s that things can always get worse. I give Beane an opportunity to figure it out before moving on. That is if the staff makes it through this season without the roster imploding, which I think is non-zero chance unfortunately.
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I mean there are 1-2 games last year, 2-3 games this year. That is what, 6 or 7 total we are leaning on? Also, the Patriots and Chiefs generally rely on man coverage as much or more than any team in the league. I am not discounting him being able to get better at it, but in the 77 games he has played, those 7 games are more of an outlier, or work in progress, than anything else. To my point, Josh is capable of making big plays out of nothing, decision making is an issue and a big part of that is reading defenses. Josh is bottom 5 against zone coverage. https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/josh-allen/ Worth also noting that with all of the issues we have had with the OL. Allen's pocket time is in the top 10, his pressured % is in the top 10 (as in good), but he scrambles more than anybody not named Justin Fields. That is not a get out of jail free card for the OL. They certainly get punched in the face, but they aren't being given many favors either. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2022/passing_advanced.htm
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Just via the eye test Josh Allen makes these insane throws that nobody else can make, but the general function of the offense looks so much harder than other QB's. Even under Daboll. Hell, before this NYG season this board was split on whether BD should be fired or promoted to HC instead of McD. Josh has really struggled against zone for a good portion of his NFL career. Beasley helped, early but it is not something he has ever been super good at. He is a freak athlete and a smart guy, but I think his insane physiology covers up some deficiencies in processing time. His strong arm allows him to be late to throw and his big play ability allows him to not need to take what is given to him. It is all a blessing and a curse. The offense certainly has issues outside of QB play, but I think Allen makes it difficult on the OL and WR position at times too.
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PSA: This is Sean McDermott's defense, not Leslie Frazier's
Mango replied to QB Bills's topic in The Stadium Wall
I don’t think “scheme” is the problem. It’s not so much a flawed defense as it is just flat out bad play calling. -
Hamlin flashed. Johnson was a major liability. Both of them together was a huge problem for us. The Bills must believe they have starter quality depth in Hamlin/Johnson and coaching failed them? Otherwise I don't totally understand why we would move on.
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OT…Daniel Jones about to be a very very rich man
Mango replied to 78thealltimegreat's topic in The Stadium Wall
Not to pile on, but Mahomes is the best contract in the game right now and it’s not close. Not upset with Allen’s deal at all. But I don’t think the GM deserves an attaboy for Allen’s current deal. -
Should QB Compensation Be Carved Out of the Salary Cap?
Mango replied to st pete gogolak's topic in The Stadium Wall
It’s been flirted with before, but if there was going to be a time for the QB to start to become less important it is likely right around the corner. We’ve seen Kyle Shanahan get huge production out of the likes of 3 different third stringers. McVay has gotten SB production out of Goff and Stafford, plus Baker off the streets. Then McDaniels with Tua. It’s not a coincidence they’re from the same coaching tree. But there is a serious trend. -
I am certainly not pounding the table for Zay Jones, and he isn’t on my list of FO misses. But it think it’s worth noting that he has never been as close to being as bad as he was in Buffalo at any other stops. Even when traded in season his catch percentage jumped from 38% to 74%.
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Perhaps Kromer is overrated as an OLine coach?
Mango replied to Big Turk's topic in The Stadium Wall
I think the answer is a little more complicated than that, but Allen is part of the conversation as well. I am not sure I would go as far as to say "terrible pocket presence" but I do get your point. He certainly holds the ball for too long. He also struggles reading zone defenses. His athleticism bails him, his OL, and his OC out of a number of decencies that they all have. -
Perhaps Kromer is overrated as an OLine coach?
Mango replied to Big Turk's topic in The Stadium Wall
I think depth of target is relevant per attempt and completion is relevant here. We are about a yard deeper across the board. Not insignificant. Also weird, we are middling/decent in time to break down/pressure but have a low pressure per drop back but a really high scramble percentage. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2022/passing_advanced.htm -
This is a huge part of the problem with the Bills. KC has also very much so out-navigated Buffalo in the salary cap as well. Buffalo's -$21M isn't my hugest concern. But it becomes one when you take into account that the difference between us and KC is $33M. And next year that difference skyrockets to $80M. We see no/little cap relief until 2025. Just to get through the next two seasons and field a roster we will have to borrow from that number, so I expect it to be minimal by the time we get there.
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Gardner Minshew, Jacoby Brissett, and Chad Henne are interesting to me. I have always been high on Heinike for this team. Allen has asked for and received Beasley, Brown, and Barkley by name. I would not be shocked to see Kyle Allen in house based on the same logic. Honorable mention to Darnold but I don't know if we can afford that one.
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Allen has the largest depth of target in the league. The problem with targeting anything other than the deep route falls on both Allen and Dorsey. The All 22’s have been really frustrating this year. Part of the Allen allure is the big play. Part of the Allen frustration is an unwillingness to take what the defense gives him. So many of Allen’s scrambles this year have been because he keeps his eyes down field to try and take a deep shot, not because nobody is open. Also Davis isn’t a 3. He’s an outside receiver. You wouldn’t move him inside in any meaningful way.
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There are certainly catches I want Gabe to make. But he also has the most low percentage play targets in the league. So of course his catch % is low. Also, the top 10 teams in terms of craps includes something like 8/10 top QB’s. The difference between being Buffalo and KC in drops is 3 and 6 to Cincinnati. That’s one less drop every 4 games.
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I agree in CIN. They’re in an even tougher spot given the cash issues with ownership. KC can borrow for next year without much risk. By comparison it’s not so much kicking the can down the road like it is in Buffalo.