Mango

That’s absolutely insane. I should have looked further. To my point, the one team that did do it was totally flawed this year. It would be wildly irresponsible to pay a QB top 5 money and have 2 top paid receivers. You can’t build an OL, run game, or defense with that kind of spending.

No NFL team has two expensive WR and QB under their big contract. TB sorta comes close but Brady’s cap hit was $12M this year and he is now off the books. If the Bengals can’t make it work with $100M in space, then there’s no way the Bills can.

I mean there are 1-2 games last year, 2-3 games this year. That is what, 6 or 7 total we are leaning on? Also, the Patriots and Chiefs generally rely on man coverage as much or more than any team in the league. I am not discounting him being able to get better at it, but in the 77 games he has played, those 7 games are more of an outlier, or work in progress, than anything else. To my point, Josh is capable of making big plays out of nothing, decision making is an issue and a big part of that is reading defenses. Josh is bottom 5 against zone coverage. https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/josh-allen/ Worth also noting that with all of the issues we have had with the OL. Allen's pocket time is in the top 10, his pressured % is in the top 10 (as in good), but he scrambles more than anybody not named Justin Fields. That is not a get out of jail free card for the OL. They certainly get punched in the face, but they aren't being given many favors either. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2022/passing_advanced.htm

Just via the eye test Josh Allen makes these insane throws that nobody else can make, but the general function of the offense looks so much harder than other QB's. Even under Daboll. Hell, before this NYG season this board was split on whether BD should be fired or promoted to HC instead of McD. Josh has really struggled against zone for a good portion of his NFL career. Beasley helped, early but it is not something he has ever been super good at. He is a freak athlete and a smart guy, but I think his insane physiology covers up some deficiencies in processing time. His strong arm allows him to be late to throw and his big play ability allows him to not need to take what is given to him. It is all a blessing and a curse. The offense certainly has issues outside of QB play, but I think Allen makes it difficult on the OL and WR position at times too.

I don’t think “scheme” is the problem. It’s not so much a flawed defense as it is just flat out bad play calling.

Hamlin flashed. Johnson was a major liability. Both of them together was a huge problem for us. The Bills must believe they have starter quality depth in Hamlin/Johnson and coaching failed them? Otherwise I don't totally understand why we would move on.

Not to pile on, but Mahomes is the best contract in the game right now and it’s not close. Not upset with Allen’s deal at all. But I don’t think the GM deserves an attaboy for Allen’s current deal.

It’s been flirted with before, but if there was going to be a time for the QB to start to become less important it is likely right around the corner. We’ve seen Kyle Shanahan get huge production out of the likes of 3 different third stringers. McVay has gotten SB production out of Goff and Stafford, plus Baker off the streets. Then McDaniels with Tua. It’s not a coincidence they’re from the same coaching tree. But there is a serious trend.

I am certainly not pounding the table for Zay Jones, and he isn’t on my list of FO misses. But it think it’s worth noting that he has never been as close to being as bad as he was in Buffalo at any other stops. Even when traded in season his catch percentage jumped from 38% to 74%.

Brees was either a system QB or Payton wildly under performed. I don’t think both can be great. He has to turn Russ into Brees or that franchise is toast for the foreseeable future.

I think the answer is a little more complicated than that, but Allen is part of the conversation as well. I am not sure I would go as far as to say "terrible pocket presence" but I do get your point. He certainly holds the ball for too long. He also struggles reading zone defenses. His athleticism bails him, his OL, and his OC out of a number of decencies that they all have.

I think depth of target is relevant per attempt and completion is relevant here. We are about a yard deeper across the board. Not insignificant. Also weird, we are middling/decent in time to break down/pressure but have a low pressure per drop back but a really high scramble percentage. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2022/passing_advanced.htm

This is a huge part of the problem with the Bills. KC has also very much so out-navigated Buffalo in the salary cap as well. Buffalo's -$21M isn't my hugest concern. But it becomes one when you take into account that the difference between us and KC is $33M. And next year that difference skyrockets to $80M. We see no/little cap relief until 2025. Just to get through the next two seasons and field a roster we will have to borrow from that number, so I expect it to be minimal by the time we get there.

Gardner Minshew, Jacoby Brissett, and Chad Henne are interesting to me. I have always been high on Heinike for this team. Allen has asked for and received Beasley, Brown, and Barkley by name. I would not be shocked to see Kyle Allen in house based on the same logic. Honorable mention to Darnold but I don't know if we can afford that one.

Allen has the largest depth of target in the league. The problem with targeting anything other than the deep route falls on both Allen and Dorsey. The All 22’s have been really frustrating this year. Part of the Allen allure is the big play. Part of the Allen frustration is an unwillingness to take what the defense gives him. So many of Allen’s scrambles this year have been because he keeps his eyes down field to try and take a deep shot, not because nobody is open. Also Davis isn’t a 3. He’s an outside receiver. You wouldn’t move him inside in any meaningful way.

There are certainly catches I want Gabe to make. But he also has the most low percentage play targets in the league. So of course his catch % is low. Also, the top 10 teams in terms of craps includes something like 8/10 top QB’s. The difference between being Buffalo and KC in drops is 3 and 6 to Cincinnati. That’s one less drop every 4 games.

I agree in CIN. They’re in an even tougher spot given the cash issues with ownership. KC can borrow for next year without much risk. By comparison it’s not so much kicking the can down the road like it is in Buffalo.

He’s the 5th most targeted WR in the league with the 4th most receptions and played 16 games. WTF are people talking about, his production dropped? He is 1-2 more targets a game from being the most targeted WR in the entire league. Justin Jefferson has the 11th most targets ever in an NFL season. Diggs is 1-2 throws per game and the CIN game finishing is the difference between Diggs and a historical season. That cannot be the bar he has to surpass. The problem is the offense lacks efficiency. Not that Diggs doesn’t get the ball enough.

The Bills will lose pace on re-signing their own and adding FA the next two offseasons. KC and CIN are in better cap shape now and have $100M+ for 2024. Buffalo has to wait until 2025. The only playoff teams in the red are JAX- which is wild considering they’re not great and don’t pay their QB. TB- About to enter a total rebuild and an old roster. MIN- Who everybody considered paper tigers. MIA- Good team, but Tua. I am less concerned with our cap number in relation to break even. I am concerned with our ability to spend compared to the teams we are competing with at the top of the conference.

From a health perspective I hope Morse calls it quits himself and the Bills do the Aaron Williams thing and force him to ride off into the sunset. But from a team/positional perspective, I hope he stays. Yes letting him go frees up cash. But we have major issues on the OL without any cap dollars to spend on it. The staff hasn't done a great job of getting rookies up to speed quickly. I would rather keep Morse and have Bates in our back pocket than rolling the dice with some rookie and FA.

If Diggs can get through the entirety of next season with the same or similar production as the 4th most targeted WR in the NFL but without acting like he is the 60th most targeted receiver I will be thrilled.

Once you pay your QB big money this is an absolute must. You cannot pay 2 guys and your QB. If you want two, you will have to pay one, draft one, then cycle through them that way. If you have to go out and pay two top receivers, you likely have a QB problem not a WR problem. That isn't a condemnation on Allen. But the Bills cannot and should not go down the road of multiple high paid WR now that Allen's contract is kicked in. I think we can help our WR's and OL with better coaching from the OC as well as play calling and decision making from the QB. Draft OL and WR early and often.

Say we free up the $45M through restructures, which gives us another ~$22M this year. What does that do to next year? How much of that gets pushed to one year vs two, three years etc. down the road.

Verbiage here is confusing. Total possible cap space does not equal amount of cap space we would have. Freeing up either $44M or $56M only actually gives us $22M or $34M in spendable cap dollars on draft picks and FA.

Did the "How Overrated is Burrow" thread get merged here? It still shows in the TBD home page, but when I click it is says unavailable? Did I get blocked? haha