Mango

Surprisingly this thread has devolved into every other Kim Pegula thread. Random poster: Odd situation, as the head of a billion dollar corporation they have a duty to tell us something. Other poster: They owe us nothing, and I absolutely loath your curiosity on the issue. I darn you to an eternity in heck! Ultimately, I think the truth of this whole thing is in the middle. The whole thing seems be handled a bit oddly by the Pegula's. But they are entitled to make themselves as private as they'd like. So I get that. Because of human nature I am also curious and do hope for more information at some point. I think we can meet in the middle in a space where this whole thing is a little odd, respect the Pegula's/Kim, and also have some curiosity without all the "demanding" of information or the "vilification" of anybody who has any curiosity about the situation.

At the risk of getting flamed, I think a big part of the reason we lack RAC is Josh is late to throw a lot and the defense has reacted and/or he get his receivers while they are flat footed. EDIT: Josh has gotten better at a lot of things as he has progressed through his career, but I think this is his biggest short coming these days. Based on his comments this offseason on "Needing to learn to win from the pocket", I think this is likely at the top of his list as well.

I don’t think so, if only for the fact that we have a million guys to play inside and just Gabe/Stef on the outside. There’s a log jam there, it’s how we lost Hodgins.

On your first point, meh. If Norwood hooks it left. If Allen had Andy Reid. If there was PI called. Ultimately when the book closes those things didn’t happen and the results are the results. There is no trophy for “what ifs”. Ultimately Payton didn’t get the job done. On your second point, the soap opera is part of the fun in sports I totally agree. Finding Sean Payton a total ash hat is part of the fun of the league. I think he’s a blow hard. The league is more fun with guys to hate and guys to love. So keep it coming Sean, I want to keep chastising you on the internet in my spare time!

Payton isn’t a talking head, he’s leading an NFL team of grown men. There’s no real need for him to have all the answers on why Hackett was hired. It’s not in his job description to dive into that question. Especially not publicly. It does no good other than to inflate his own ego. Officially rooting against the Broncos. What an ash clown.

So weird to just go after Hackett and the Jets. Like, who cares dude. Sometimes in sport you get these “guru’s” who get by on convincing everybody why their the smartest guy in the room rather than just being the smartest guy in the room. In my experience I know a lot of coaches like this who do exceptional on the junior level, but fall short at the Olympics. Being great at that level requires full focus on you being great rather than putting down others to create a pseudo-talent gap. Not surprising this is who Payton is after falling short with such a prolific passer for so long.

Interceptions, off target, drops, and tips. 2 to Diggs in 2 days I believe. But it sounds like all things Davis, Knox, and Kincade are going well with some splashes from Shakir and Sherfield.

He’ll need a new deal relatively soon. He’s basically been playing on a rookie cap hit. This year he only counts $18M. But the next 4 or 5 range from $45-$55M which is amongst the highest cap hits in the league. The bill is coming due. Well have to extend to help spread money out.

I don’t love AAV for QB contract ranking. I much prefer cap hit on a yearly basis. Allen averages out to 9th, but he comes with $45-$56M cap numbers for the next 4 or 5 years. Allen has barely touched his deal in terms of cost. He’s only $18M this year which is a steal. But he also comfortably goes to the 5th and then 2nd highest cap hit in the entire league for the duration of his contract. The Allen deal isn’t bad. But he’s a top 3 QB who will carry a top 3 cap hit. It’s just fair value not wizardry.

It is so wild to me the Eichel thing is so contentious. Eichel was right in wanting out. The Sabres were right to want to reset without him. Both the Sabres and Golden Knights are better after the trade. I don't get all the ill will towards the GMKA/Eichel camps. It is weird. I do have a spicy take though. I am higher on the Sabres going forward than I am on the Bills. Of course I wouldn't bet the mortgage on it. The NFL is built around the QB and the Bills have one so they are always in the hunt. But I think the Bills arch is starting to plateau and I think the Sabres are pointing steeply up. I haven't had this much fun watching hockey since 05-06. I predict 105-110 points this season. The Bills last year felt like the 06-07 Sabres season. (Now that I put it into writing, look for the Sabres to totally bottom out and the Bills to win the SB this year)

Diggs has made himself the focal point of the team the last two times he was contractually obligated to show up to OBD. That’s on him. McD botched mini camp. He likely was and is concerned about the situation. But saying it created a frenzy. I think they are fine for now. But the team is also working diligently to keep Diggs happy.

The last two times Diggs has been contractually obligated to put on a Bills jersey at OBD he’s thrown a tantrum. I have difficulty separating the two events. If one day of conversations is all it took, then we likely wouldn’t have had any issues at minicamp. Hoping it is all worked out and we can move on

Touchdowns don’t count for extra points because you threw the ball farther. Keeping the sticks moving consistently means you’re generally winning pretty consistently.

He threw 28 his rookie season. Manning is the pipe dream for every bad rookie season across the league. Manning and Allen are 20 years apart, I think it is important to compare them to their peers relatively rather than by raw numbers. By that metric they also similar in a lot of categories, which is awesome. In year 5 Manning threw 19 interceptions, good for 3rd highest in the league. Ask Manning, Dungy, Allen, McD. I would be my mortgage they would all say that their turnovers are too high.

I agree with you. It is the cost of replacement due to our overall cap situation that is the issue. And why I think the rumor of "the right situation" is key. I think there is a conversation to be had about what options are available/possible rather than just saying "it is unaffordable". Assuming Diggs can be a good soldier for the duration of his contract, I think the return would have to be a stop gap for this year and a high draft pick next year to get a long term replacement on the cheap. It is honestly why I think one of the very very few reasonable options, if any, is Diggs for Evans and a few draft picks. I don't think we move on from Diggs this year, but I don't think he lives out his contract in Buffalo either.

You likely get this, so I don’t mean to fire to at you. But the question provides a clean answer. If Diggs plays 2024 in Buffalo, he costs the Bills $27.8M in total. If Diggs is traded today, he costs Buffalo $31M total against the cap in 2024z The difference in having him vs. not is approximated $3M If traded today he saves them $1.6M this season as well.

I agree with you on return being an huge issue here. I would be willing to get creative with a team like Tampa or Indy. Mike Evans, a 2nd. Indy with Diggs for Pittman and some picks/players. But it’s tough to look at a contender because I think I would absolutely need a first and change. If they’re that close I need a higher draft pick than high 20’s in return. It looks like Devante Adams has basically eaten through his bonus/restructure. Now that’s an untradable contract. If the cap hits were a little bit closer in value I could be convinced for something close to straight up with Vegas. I think it’s important to sometimes pick apart AAV vs Cap Numbers. Take a look at WR cap hits in 2024. Diggs at $18.75M is the 15th for WR cap hits. That’s a really friendly value for a top 5 player. OBJ is getting $15M, Diggs at $19M is a steal by comparison. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/2024/cap-hit/wide-receiver/ (For the people/person that keeps moving the goalposts with me on this. My preference is for everybody to get along. Diggs plays lights out in Buffalo; and we win the next 12 SB’s in a row. This is a thread on trade rumors. I’m just going down the rabbit hole on how it could or could not work out)

I’m struggling to wrap my head around what other teams would inherit from Diggs cap wise. I’m tempted to think he’s VERY cheap by Diggs standards. The way I understand it is that the Bills have to eat his bonus money, and with the restructure, only his salary follows him. Even for 2023, Diggs would save TB something like $12M on their cap by taking Diggs and moving Evans. Which leads my to believe that maybe Diggs might be worth a high pick to a rebuilding team in cap trouble. Diggs for Evans and a 2nd in 2024 and 2025 (so they can take a QB with their first pick next year). That would get us a rental for this year, and some ammo to grab a receiver high in 2024. Again, my preference is that it all works out. But it is navigable, albeit with some creativity and the right return. Unsure. I hope it doesn’t come to that. I want to keep Diggs. If he’s traded, I want an immediate replacement as part of the deal, with some reasonable draft capital. If we have to open door number three and Diggs holds out, it will absolutely destroy our return. I’d be really angry. I can do some mental gymnastics to get behind either scenario above. But this one would grind my gears.

Sorry, that comment isn’t totally directed at you. I’ve broken this down a few times. I get everybody doesn’t read every page. But there are a lot of people that are either not catching it or ignoring it, then continuing the conversation of how it’s not possible because of the $45M. Spotrac isn’t wrong. His total dead cap is spread over two years. Which does in fact equal $45M. But dead cap isn’t in addition to, it’s in replacement of his current contract/cap number, and it’s over two years, not a single $45M increase. So you have to look at that number compared to what it costs to keep him. Having Diggs on the roster the next two years costs the team about $42. Only a $3M difference and actually saves the team $1.6M this season. If you want the specific break down click on the red X to the right of any season. It will break down the cap hit based on trade and release. It’s not that Diggs can’t be moved. He can be. It’s we would want (need?) an immediate replacement, and that replacement would likely cost $15-20M, which would be difficult. But not really any more difficult than signing that player with Diggs on the roster either. (ie. OBJ/Hopkins) The Bills can do it. But would likely have to package another player to make room this year. My quick thought is Mike Evans and a high pick for Diggs. Then see what value we can get for Morse which should give us the cap space we need. Use the high pick and space next year to solve the Diggs problem in the offseason, while also having a one year rental. That’s just an idea for what’s possible. But I’d prefer to keep Diggs and have everybody get along while playing high level football.

There is no insane cap hit at least when compared to having him on/off the roster. It doesn’t exist. Diggs cap hit is $3M more off of the roster than he is on the roster. Diggs contract is prohibitive to the team no matter what they do with him. I’m going to keep saying this on every page as often as people keep mindlessly parroting this.

I’m not advocating trading Diggs. But this data isn’t fully correct and it needs to not be parroted if we are going to keep having this conversation. Keeping Diggs on the roster this year and next eats up approximately $42M in cap space. Trading Diggs today means that he eats up approximately $45M in cap space over the next two years. That is not $45M more against the cap than his current cost. It’s just $45M compared to $42M. A $3M difference is not what would hold anything back. The real issue would likely be getting enough value in return. We would need a quality no. 1 WR in return for at least a year. That WR would also likely eat an additional $15-20M. Thats the contract that would be prohibitive given our overall cap situation. Add in the fact that the Bills would probably also want a high draft pick in addition to the player. It’s a lot of compensation. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/stefon-diggs-16872/

Could Pegula find somebody better? Sure. Would he? Ehhhh….. The Bills have been Super Bowl favorites for some time. It would be a bold move to risk that status with a new hire. We’ve seen Terry be bold with the Sabres. I guess maybe he is due to get a bold decision right, but sheesh, that’s terrifying.

I don’t think it is much if anything. Honestly, the last two times Diggs was required to be in the building his behavior put him in the national news. The team said they were concerned then went into full PR mode. Any logical person could surmise that the Bills would be open to trading Diggs for the right price. Whether or not they’re shopping him is another conversation.

I am frustrated with Diggs. I don’t like the idea of losing him. But also, this isn’t Madden, and if a guy is a problem the FO might not have much of a choice. The last two times he’s been required to put on a Bills jersey he’s been in the headlines for throwing tantrums. My intent was to correct a few posters on Diggs cap implications no tell them one we should or shouldn’t. But….if the team were to move on from Diggs. I’d probably knock on Tampa’s door for a one year rental for Mike Evans. And even in that situation I don’t love it.

We don’t lose $20M. We gain $1M this year, and it is about $3M to have him off the roster than it is to have him on. Of course $30M is a lot of cap space tied up in a guy not on the team. But $27M is also a lot for a guy who sounds like he might not want to be here. And the last two times he put on a jersey he caused a scene.