Mango

I thought that Haskins and Allen played similarly, and if we swapped defenses, the game would have flipped.

I think Allen had a good “game manager” day. 1 TD. 140 yards. Meh. Not game ball worthy. I’d grade a C. Didn’t do anything to win the game. Didn’t do anything to lose it. Singletary and Phillips are easily my 1 and 2. I questioned Singletary’s overall ability this week because he’s had 20 touches. Kid balled today!

Again, is the offense performing to the level you would expect given the level of investment in both draft capital and money by this front office? It is an easy questions. Yes or No?

So just to get this straight. I misquoted the Allen pick as 2 firstsand not a first and 2 seconds. Just to stay on point, we should expect more out of 2-1sts, 3- 2nds, 2-3rds, and the second highest paid center. That’s enough of an investment to expect more than bottom 25% of the league production. But change that investment to 1-1st, 5-2nds, 2-3rds and the second highest paid center, and suddenly nobody understands the game, don’t complain about the offense, and people are nitpicking with their criticisms. Jesus Christ...

Also QB’s. If I am a quality QB, the difference between 30M and 25M for myself isn’t as much as taking that 5M every year and getting a better tieres OLineman or WR. Because QBs take up about 15% of the salary cap, they have a much different effect than every other position. That said, I’m a MLB, I am getting paid!

Unsure if you’re trying to be this way, or being pedantic is in you nature. This conversation started because you (paraphrasing) asked the board to find something other than the offense that was sub par because they don’t have any players there. I responded with, that’s half the roster and we’ve dedicated tons of resources listing the draft picks, and we shouldn't be bottom of the league given the resources allocated. Not sure how switching Josh Allen from 2 firsts to a first and 2 seconds really changes my point to be in your favor. You keep moving the goal posts without ever actually making any point what so ever.

Really, that’s all you got out of what I posted? Sorry 2 2nds and a 1st. Is everything different now?

Like I said: It isn't because they have ignored that side of the ball, it is because they have not done a great job of identifying talent on that side of the ball. 2 firsts, 3 seconds, 2 thirds, and the 2nd highest paid center should be better than bottom of the barrel. Also, I do think that both the WR and OL are significantly upgraded from last year. I am sick of hearing that we need a future HOF-er like Julio Jones in order for our QB/offense to reach average. Most of the league finds production without Julio Jones. I really don't think is above average yet. In fact I think he is well below in basically every single column on NFL.com Completion %- 32/37-QB's with over 80 passing attempts, only current starter he is ahead of is Baker and Fitz Yards per game- 26th- only current starters he is ahead of are Fitz (he has been in and out this is skued), Kyle Allen, Sam Darnold, Daniel Jones, Mitch Trubisky, Mason Rudolph (left game early when he looked like he died) TD's- 20th- 9 TD's- Tied with Case Keenum, Teddy B (Backup- Started 5 games), Kyler Murray(Rookie), Mason Rudolph (Started 4 games). Andy Dalton (benched) INT's- 6th or 46th- Depends on how you want to look at it. Only ahead of Matt Ryan, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold in terms of QB's still starting. Tied with Fitz, Jimmy G, Rivers, Daniel Jones, Dak, and Goff 1st Down %- 22/37 with 80+ attempts- Starters he is ahead of Wentz, Fitz, Murray, Trubisky, Darnold, Baker, Daniel Jones, Rudolph Sacks- T-9th most- Despite one of the better graded PP lines- Tied with Wilson and Matt Ryan- Only Starters ahead of- Baker, Jones, Watson, Murray. Rating- 30th- Minimum 80 passing attempts- Current starters ranked lower- Fitz, Baker, Darnold

Like football organization? Or company in general? Because I have seen you post this a few times, and mentioned how important culture is to any successful organization. I worked for a fortune 100 company that I thought had a pretty toxic culture. I work for a company approaching the 1B that has horrendous process, bordering on no process at all. I manage a single account/vendor that is worth hundreds of millions of dollars, and they have trouble getting out of their own way. I know Olympic gold medal coaches who run a toxic environment. I can name 100 instances of the inverse, businesses that are buttoned up, and close down. Companies that are great to work for, but have trouble getting by. Coaches that develop great team culture and buy in, but can't actually coach their sport out of a paper bag. The point is, there are issues everywhere, with everything, everybody brings their own baggage, issues, inefficiencies to the table, and everybody has their own secret sauce as well. I wouldn't paint with such a broad brush, and assume that everybody is doing ABC.

Haha, me too. Saratoga area? Honestly it took some time, but I had no deadline, so it wasn't like wasting a day, I just did it over a few days. It is amazing what you can get done in an hour long conference call, that could have been an email.

You are moving the goal posts. You asked for a criticism of the team, outside of the largest criticism of the team, which is a stupid exercise to interject yourself in. Now it is, well there isn't enough talent. It is year 3, given FA, it does not take that long to move from bad, to mediocre. They currently are not as good as the offense they inherited. It isn't because they have ignored that side of the ball, it is because they have not done a great job of identifying talent on that side of the ball. 2 firsts, 3 seconds, 2 thirds, and the 2nd highest paid center should be better than bottom of the barrel. They have invested more than enough to not be 19th in YPG, 25th in offensive plays, and 24th in points per game...all of which the Bills are the last ranked team above .500 Josh Allen- 2x 1sts Dawkins- 2nd Ford-2nd Zay Jones- 2nd Devin Singletary- 3rd Kelvin Benjamin- 3rd Mitch Morris- 2nd Highest paid center in the NFL

Dude, the offense is basically half of a team, and you want people to give an honest criticism of the team, MINUS the most glaring issue.

I don’t think so. He has Brown between the hashes open. Sitting in a soft spot. At the 0:03 mark Allen’s feet are set. Pass rusher is about 5-6 yards away. JB is right in front of him. Taking off is classic JA

I think overall you are right. But most of that comes into play whether a QB puts up a single 300 yard game in the first 15 games. IE coaching, matchupe etc. all fall into place by week one or 15. Allen is at 19 now. It is pretty rarefied air, the company is not great there. Does it mean he can't be the next great QB? No. But he would definitely be the very first to do so.

Of course there are a wide array of variables that go into the success of a players career. That does not mean there are not meaningful checkpoints. If you have a model that is encompassing, go for it. Would love to see it. I think talented players generally will find a way to show something pretty early on. The list of QB's who took 19 starts or more to have a 300 yard game is bleak. Does throwing a 300 yard game early in your career mean a QB will be good, of course not. But it seems that the more time goes by, the lesser of a career the player has. David Carr Blaine Gabbert Rex Grossman Charlie Frye Mark Sanchez Kyle Orton Tarvaris Jackson Vince Young Charlie Batch Tyrod Taylor Alex Smith David Garrard

List of QB's on a 53 man roster still, who have not thrown for 300 yards yet, or did not reach that mark by their 19th start. Tyrod Taylor Alex Smith- Joe Webb AJ McCarron David Fales Sean Manion Jeff Driskell Davis Webb Nathan Peterman Josh Allen Josh Rosen, Mason Rudolph Luke Falk You could. I just did 1 as their first, year, 2 as their second. Not based on completion. of the year. I thought years in the league might be a good indicator, but I think the data is pointing heavier towards number of starts, independent of time in the league

All good stuff. Part of the issue with this is, we (I), don't have access to some NFL master file that we can just mess with in excel, so it has to be done manually. I didn't collect anything in a way that I could bin this out in terms of frequency or averages. Even teasing out passing yards per start would be difficult with the way the data is given to the public.

It is just what analytics is. It is predictive but not a guarantee. Look at 2016, nobody said HRC was going to be POTUS, just that she stood a 70% chance, or whatever it was. Improbable, yes, impossible no. The more data points you have, the more accurate it becomes. I am not smart enough to be writing any algorithms, but I do like this data point in terms of taking some simple data to try and grasp longevity. I also like YAC with air yards per attempt or completion to see how the QB is delivering the ball. Somebody has to buck the trend, Allen has in many ways. But at the same time, he is putting himself behind the 8 ball.

There are 88 QB's in the last 20 years that threw for 300 yards in a game (and/or played for 6+ year in the NFL) in less starts than Allen. There are 63 QB's in the last 20 years that have thrown for 300+ yards in less time in the league, regardless of game starts. I can't imagine that half of the QB's in the league that have either made it 6 years or 32 starts are in a worse position than JA. That would be historically bad coaching and FO management.

300 yards has long been considered the threshold for a very good game by an NFL QB. If you want to argue how that came to be or is a reasonable line, then we might as well scream at each other about Descartes For the sake of this exercise: 400 Yard Games- 49 QB's- 19 QB's in the NFL HOF or guaranteed first ballot (ie. Manning, Brees, Brady, Rodgers, etc.)- 39% make the NFL HOF 500 Yard Games- 10 QB's - 6 QB's in the NFL HOF or guaranteed first ballot (ie. Manning, Brees, Brady, Rodgers, etc.)- 60% make the NFL HOF Does throwing for 400 or 500 yards mean you are the absolute greatest?...absolutely not. But if you do either of those things, you have a 40-60% chance of making it, which is a better shot by a mile, than just about every other QB in the league. Obviously interpreting data is lost on you and you would rather scream "fake news" than understand anything.

I mean, I guess, but not really. There seems to be a correlation between early in career 300 yard games, and games started over the course of their career. QB’s might be the most fickle position in sports, nobody hangs on to a QB on a losing team. Once again, nobody is asking you to believe frequency of 300 yard games has a correlation to wins. Hell, nobody is asking you to believe anything. But you seem hell bent on setting the data on fire and telling people they are wrong on a point nobody is making here. But the data is most definitely showing that QB’s who fail to take over a game with their arm (300 yards for this exercise), don’t have much longevity as starters in the NFL.

Well jeez, you summarized this post way better than I did. Haha

Yeah, I meant dead in football/dog years. Those guys who took time to start are factored in to all the averages and accounted for. I chose 6 years in the league for anybody drafted before 2014 to try and not clutter it with lack of longevity/commitment from the league as a whole. 6 years was chosen because a first round pick gets 5 plus a new deal. 32 games started should imply that somebody committed to their development, 2 years. Basically I just wiped out the trash. EJ. Jamarcus, etc. You will see Aaron Rodgers didn’t hit 300 until his 4th year in the league. It slightly sku’s time in the league. But games to his first 300 yard game is still right on point. Alex Smith is easily the oddest case.

Did you even look at the data? Or did you just see 300 yards and yell “Get off my lawn” All it says is that QB’s who throw for 300 yards ONCE within their first 2 years in the league/16 starts have a higher chance of longevity. This has nothing to do with over all passing yards or frequency of 300 yard games in correlation to wins. Dude, when I heard he was starting last week I was shocked he was still alive.

I mean, technically, just about everybody is on the list. There are 130 QB’s. Haha Russ is just a head of Allen by a game (assuming JA drops 300 on the redskins) in terms of games started without going for 300. People seem to think Allen is an anomaly. He might be, but I think he has to have a big game through the air by the time we wrap up the playoffs or he’s flirting with being replaced as the starter sometime in year 3 or to start year 4. Edited: Allen’s placement compared to RW