Mango

Dude, the offense is basically half of a team, and you want people to give an honest criticism of the team, MINUS the most glaring issue.

I don’t think so. He has Brown between the hashes open. Sitting in a soft spot. At the 0:03 mark Allen’s feet are set. Pass rusher is about 5-6 yards away. JB is right in front of him. Taking off is classic JA

I think overall you are right. But most of that comes into play whether a QB puts up a single 300 yard game in the first 15 games. IE coaching, matchupe etc. all fall into place by week one or 15. Allen is at 19 now. It is pretty rarefied air, the company is not great there. Does it mean he can't be the next great QB? No. But he would definitely be the very first to do so.

Of course there are a wide array of variables that go into the success of a players career. That does not mean there are not meaningful checkpoints. If you have a model that is encompassing, go for it. Would love to see it. I think talented players generally will find a way to show something pretty early on. The list of QB's who took 19 starts or more to have a 300 yard game is bleak. Does throwing a 300 yard game early in your career mean a QB will be good, of course not. But it seems that the more time goes by, the lesser of a career the player has. David Carr Blaine Gabbert Rex Grossman Charlie Frye Mark Sanchez Kyle Orton Tarvaris Jackson Vince Young Charlie Batch Tyrod Taylor Alex Smith David Garrard

List of QB's on a 53 man roster still, who have not thrown for 300 yards yet, or did not reach that mark by their 19th start. Tyrod Taylor Alex Smith- Joe Webb AJ McCarron David Fales Sean Manion Jeff Driskell Davis Webb Nathan Peterman Josh Allen Josh Rosen, Mason Rudolph Luke Falk You could. I just did 1 as their first, year, 2 as their second. Not based on completion. of the year. I thought years in the league might be a good indicator, but I think the data is pointing heavier towards number of starts, independent of time in the league

All good stuff. Part of the issue with this is, we (I), don't have access to some NFL master file that we can just mess with in excel, so it has to be done manually. I didn't collect anything in a way that I could bin this out in terms of frequency or averages. Even teasing out passing yards per start would be difficult with the way the data is given to the public.

It is just what analytics is. It is predictive but not a guarantee. Look at 2016, nobody said HRC was going to be POTUS, just that she stood a 70% chance, or whatever it was. Improbable, yes, impossible no. The more data points you have, the more accurate it becomes. I am not smart enough to be writing any algorithms, but I do like this data point in terms of taking some simple data to try and grasp longevity. I also like YAC with air yards per attempt or completion to see how the QB is delivering the ball. Somebody has to buck the trend, Allen has in many ways. But at the same time, he is putting himself behind the 8 ball.

There are 88 QB's in the last 20 years that threw for 300 yards in a game (and/or played for 6+ year in the NFL) in less starts than Allen. There are 63 QB's in the last 20 years that have thrown for 300+ yards in less time in the league, regardless of game starts. I can't imagine that half of the QB's in the league that have either made it 6 years or 32 starts are in a worse position than JA. That would be historically bad coaching and FO management.

300 yards has long been considered the threshold for a very good game by an NFL QB. If you want to argue how that came to be or is a reasonable line, then we might as well scream at each other about Descartes For the sake of this exercise: 400 Yard Games- 49 QB's- 19 QB's in the NFL HOF or guaranteed first ballot (ie. Manning, Brees, Brady, Rodgers, etc.)- 39% make the NFL HOF 500 Yard Games- 10 QB's - 6 QB's in the NFL HOF or guaranteed first ballot (ie. Manning, Brees, Brady, Rodgers, etc.)- 60% make the NFL HOF Does throwing for 400 or 500 yards mean you are the absolute greatest?...absolutely not. But if you do either of those things, you have a 40-60% chance of making it, which is a better shot by a mile, than just about every other QB in the league. Obviously interpreting data is lost on you and you would rather scream "fake news" than understand anything.

I mean, I guess, but not really. There seems to be a correlation between early in career 300 yard games, and games started over the course of their career. QB’s might be the most fickle position in sports, nobody hangs on to a QB on a losing team. Once again, nobody is asking you to believe frequency of 300 yard games has a correlation to wins. Hell, nobody is asking you to believe anything. But you seem hell bent on setting the data on fire and telling people they are wrong on a point nobody is making here. But the data is most definitely showing that QB’s who fail to take over a game with their arm (300 yards for this exercise), don’t have much longevity as starters in the NFL.

Well jeez, you summarized this post way better than I did. Haha

Yeah, I meant dead in football/dog years. Those guys who took time to start are factored in to all the averages and accounted for. I chose 6 years in the league for anybody drafted before 2014 to try and not clutter it with lack of longevity/commitment from the league as a whole. 6 years was chosen because a first round pick gets 5 plus a new deal. 32 games started should imply that somebody committed to their development, 2 years. Basically I just wiped out the trash. EJ. Jamarcus, etc. You will see Aaron Rodgers didn’t hit 300 until his 4th year in the league. It slightly sku’s time in the league. But games to his first 300 yard game is still right on point. Alex Smith is easily the oddest case.

Did you even look at the data? Or did you just see 300 yards and yell “Get off my lawn” All it says is that QB’s who throw for 300 yards ONCE within their first 2 years in the league/16 starts have a higher chance of longevity. This has nothing to do with over all passing yards or frequency of 300 yard games in correlation to wins. Dude, when I heard he was starting last week I was shocked he was still alive.

I mean, technically, just about everybody is on the list. There are 130 QB’s. Haha Russ is just a head of Allen by a game (assuming JA drops 300 on the redskins) in terms of games started without going for 300. People seem to think Allen is an anomaly. He might be, but I think he has to have a big game through the air by the time we wrap up the playoffs or he’s flirting with being replaced as the starter sometime in year 3 or to start year 4. Edited: Allen’s placement compared to RW

Is any of this shown in any of the data? The data isn’t isn’t presented in a way that leans towards any sort of bias. It’s basically game starts compared to first 300 yard game, with league longevity. None of this implies that huge passing numbers regularly lead to greatness. (Which is how I read your post) Facts are, most franchise (almost all) franchise QBs have a single 300 yard game within 16 starts. I will start to worry about us, if he doesn’t hit it by the time our season or post season is over with. I’d have to take a slightly deeper dive, but I think he’d be the first QB in 20 years to start a playoff game without a 300 yard day to his name.

I couldn’t get past the poor offensive line play. By my eye, and most other headings, the Bills OL has been adequate to good.

Correct. The data posted has nothing to do with frequency of 300+ and wins. It’s purely showing the ability to have a big day through the air early and longevity.

Per the data in another thread, Allen isn’t on pace for being the long term solution without a big day through the air to this point.

I don't think (although I don't have the data) that 300 yards is indicative of regular success. I do think the data shows that it is important to hit it sooner rather than later. We took a chance on Allen as an anomaly, because the thought is his skill set, background, career path, etc. is an anomaly. If that is the case, he could buck the trend, but he would be one of the first. I think his deep ball issues are a little of column A and a little of column B. Not enough air for the WR to adjust, and he is not timing them right.

thank you. Honestly, I wasn't trying to draw any conclusions. We have just been mentioning this special 300 yard number since EJ in 2013, so I was just curious on when other QB's hit that mark, then one thing leads to another, and...BAM I have 20 years worth of NFL drafts. I agree, I do not think frequency or timing of NFL games predicts the playoffs. I don't think any of the data implies that either. Again, I don't think it is a predictor of any ceilings, longevity, success etc. I do think you are in a bad place at QB if you have a starter that has gone 30+ games without having a single 300 yard game. Like if you have a rookie who throws a 300 yard game in his 2nd start, it does not imply he will be Aaron Rodgers. But if he goes 30+ he is not in great company, Alex Smith is the only one who could remotely be considered franchise in that area.

For years we have been talking about whether or not the 300 yard game is important and if it means anything. I tried to weed out the busts and quick flame outs, so I put some caps on players in terms of NFL commitment via starts and/or longevity. Data compiled from NFL.com and Pro-Football-Reference So I compiled every draft from 1998 of QB's.I left the google doc public and editable if anybody wanted to play with it or add information. Minimums for the sake of editing out guys who didn't either have longevity in the league or weren't given long term starting opportunities: - 32 Starts or - 6 years on an NFL Roster - For drafts from 2014 +, must still be on an NFL roster - QB's Drafted in 2017, 2018, 2019, must have started at least 1 game Raw Findings: - For QB's who have thrown a 300 yard game, their average time in the league was 2.29 years (rookie year is counted as 1) - QB's who have met the criteria, averages a 300 yard game at their 8.9th start - Every QB who has met the 6 year or 32 start criteria and has started a playoff game, has thrown for 300 yards in a game. - Every QB with a playoff start has averages a 300 yard game within their first 2.28 years and 9.97 games started - QB's with multiple playoff starts average their first 300 yard game 2.13 years into their career (early second year) and/or 9 games started into their careers. - QB's with multiple playoff starts, and a 300 yard game averaged a 10.97 year career. - Rookies, 2nd year QB's, and Career Backups excluded, Franchise QB's average their first 300 yard game 1.66 years into their career or about their 7th start (This is admittedly subjective. Because of longevity, it is tough to quantify) - Matt Hasselback, Mike Vick, Joe Flacco, and Rusell Wilson, are the only QB's I have listed as Franchise, who took similar, or more starts to complete a 300 yard passing game. ***All in all, it does not look like a predictive stat in that completing it early in your career projects longevity. But the later a QB (games started) reaches a 300 yard game, the worse it is.*** https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UMnKmGwq27h0GfFtnqI77KgDVQadOTg1rxS9TbNHoPg/edit?usp=sharing Mods- Because this is a large data set, and league wide, I created a new thread.

I actually hope that McD isn't throwing shade at his predecessor 3 years ago. Enough time has passed that they should be far enough in the rear view to not concern yourself with.

I believe Harry is also a 3 tech. Am I wrong on that? I’ve been thinking that Jordan Phillips showed up and stole Harry’s job this year, and deserves the extension.

We have a much tougher schedule next year. If the team plays like they have this year, against pretty bad teams, we will be tough to win more than 8 games. Dalton wouldn’t be a straight het swap. He’d be an insurance policy incase Allen doesn’t assert himself as a top half QB in the NFL. We can save the season, and move on the following year.

I think our WR Corp is hovering right around average. Some days a little better, some a little lower. We are getting surprisingly consultant play out of Gore. Shady would be a HUGE help. I still don’t really get that move. Honestly, the dude deserves a ring, and I hope he gets one. His ability alone should get him in the hall, but sometimes that isn’t enough.