Mango

I’ve always been a Phil Rivers fan. Hoping they can pull this one off and go on a crazy run into week 17. (Assuming Buffalo is still in the playoffs). I like Mahomes, he’s obviously part of the next generation. But I’m sick of it right now. Go Bolts!

This! Cleveland beating Pitt was helpful, but they are still the most meaningful game on our schedule going forward. Should note, ESPN still has us as favorites on Thanksgiving vs. Dallas and as favorites against Pitt in Pitt. EDIT: Just playing with the calculator, if CLE wins out, they do not need much to make the playoffs. Baltimore is easily their toughest. Did not realize.

Josh Allen is 3-0 when putting up 30 points or more* *=Josh's 30 point games are all against MIA

I break this down into, " We currently aren't good enough to be competitive against these teams now, and I do not think we will be good enough next year. There is a chance it might take this FO until year 5 to be competitive against good teams." That will be a major problem IMO if it comes to fruition.

He is better than Harry currently...I don't understand why that would not be the case next year, especially considering they don't have all that much invested into Harrison.

Oh boy, about 2/3rds of this board think Allen has less of a chance than winning a coin flip (64.81% are 40% sure or less). I am sure this thread will go well.

Win% right now only has Oakland losing to KC for the rest of the year, and they only play AFC teams. Buffalo losing to New England and Baltimore, which puts Oaklands conference wins above Buffalo by +1. Assuming win % comes to fruition Buffalo is the 6th seed and Oakland is the 5th. If we only flip Buffalo and Pitt, Pittsburgh is the 5th seed with the tie breaker over Oakland at the 6th seed with strength of victory. http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

What do you want them to do? Play 16 games? - Josh Reed Run Blocking? - Josh Reed Find a soft spot underneath? - Josh Reed Be a much better athlete but play like 50% of the season? - Roscoe Parrish Dynamic kick returner? - Roscoe Parrish

It is still pretty early, but flipping Pitt and Buffalo swaps them to 11-5 and Buffalo 10-6. Does not matter though. We could win any other game and we would still miss the playoffs. If it makes you feel better, ESPN projects us winning that game as of right now. They also have us over Dallas, but again, even if we swapped an L for a W in NE or Baltimore, we would miss the playoffs at 11-5. Questioning accuracy of win% is valid. It has Oakland at 11-5 at the 5th seed.

I think we are on the same page here. I am just saying it isn't going 1-3 through the teeth of the schedule. I think it absolutely has to be Pittsburgh. Dallas, NE, or Baltimore, doesn't really do us any good without Pittsburgh dropping an additional game. Now if Cleveland can find a way to beat Pittsburgh, that changes a lot of things.

It is actually pretty wild that for a team that started so hot, they seem to have their backs against the wall in a way at 6-3 down the stretch. Worth noting, via choosing win % in the playoff calculator, both AFC wild card teams are projected at 11-5.

Losing either of those games would require us to beat Pittsburgh and steal Baltimore or New England. I believe the way the AFC is projected to fall right now (just via favorites), an NFC win would not be enough.

If you go straight win percentage/favorites, Buffalo right now puts us into the playoffs. If we swap Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh to a loss, winning any other game, regardless of NE, BAL, DAL, we miss the playoffs entirely because we lose the head to head against Pitt. It is a must win...assuming the favorites do what they are supposed to do right now. We needed the CLE game.

We absolutely need that 1 of 4 stretch to be Pittsburgh. I think if we do something like beat Dallas and lose to Pittsburgh, we might miss the playoffs all together. If Pittsburgh gets through CLE-CIN-CLE (the AFCN plays each other tough regardless of how trash some can be), even with a loss to ARI, we would go into Hienz field 8-5 vs. 8-5 most likely. We will need the head to head come week 17. I think our best shot to the playoffs is winning the next 2, beating Dallas (more of a chance to steal that game than NE or BAL right now) and Pittsburgh.

You should add a poll for this rather than a bunch of the same single line answers with records. My thoughts at 0-1 through the back half: MIA: hot right now, or at least as hot as a 2 win team can be. They are not an easy out. Probable WIN DEN: They are a very good defense, I expect this to be much closer than it should be. If we beat MIA I think we win this one. If we lose against MIA we lose this. WIN DAL: People have this as a blow out. Dallas has been hot and cold. Bills do not match up well. I think whoever has the momentum coming into this game wins. 50-50 BAL: Super hot right now. If they can cool down and BUF can contain Lamar, they can win. Chances are low though. LOSS Steelers - Steelers have been hot for a while now. I think this is sort of who we wish the Bills were. Season on the line here. 50-50 Patriots - Brady and co. have a history of not making the same mistake twice LOSS and it won't be close Jets - WIN If we can not play down to MIA and get some offense against a very good DEN defense, we are in a good spot. If we play down to them and drop one, I think we drop both of the 50-50 games.

Milano is good value for his draft pick. He should be resigned but won’t cost a ton. Jordan Phillips should be retained. Tre should be signed at basically whatever. Allen, if needed to be resigned tomorrow (which he doesn’t) would cost probably around Keenum money (hypothetical). That would still leave us tons of room.

Nailed it! And I will add his ability to put just about every throw on a frozen rope has bailed him out of his inability to read defenses over his career. Allen is regularly late to the read/throw, and the NFL isn’t the mountain west, he can’t get away with it.

Dump all that money into Dalton? We have tons of cap space next year, what did we clear out space for if not for spending it. 12M per year isn't a ton of space, even for a backup QB these days. Signing Dalton as an insurance policy is not mutually exclusive to signing a top flight receiver and tackle. We are looking at $90M in space. With the most expensive contracts coming due shortly of Tre, Milano, Nsehke, Jordan Phillips, Poyer. There is more than enough cash to do all of this.

Beasley was open on 3rd down. We checked Brown into his route. On 1st, 2nd, or a longer 3rd down attempt, that is the read, and you make the play. On 3rd and 4 given the time in the game, you need to be ready to keep the sticks moving, not just make the standard read.

We have a choice. I would take a run at Dalton for 2 years 25M-ish total contract. Put some resources into better OT play and a WR too. If Josh looks the same next year as he does this year I pull the trigger sometime between week 4-6. Dalton starts for 1.5 years. You take a QB 2021 to sit. The regime cannot afford to whiff without an immediate replacement plan in 2020/2021.

It is because we were not in cap hell in the way some people want you to believe. We were pushing around 12M in cap space in McD's first year. Which is not a ton, but not the hell NO has found themselves in over the years. Dareus is a good example. We cut him, took the dead cap space, and then sunk 10M per year into his replacement. We had a team friendly out after the following season. It was totally unnecessary. We were coming out of a year or two tight against the cap, but contracts were going to age out shortly and they would have been fine. Instead they let guys walk, traded away decent talent (even though over paid in some instances). Didn't use much of that money to provide comparable replacements. Then used their increased draft capital to replace players and positions they got rid of a QB that seems like a coin flip currently (Has not done enough to be the guy, has not failed enough to be a dud), and a MLB that seems to be meh. Honestly, outside of Tre, who are we saving all this cap space to pay? Jordan Phillips will command some worthwhile money. But what are we paying Dawkins, Milano, Feliciano, Nsekhe, etc over the next few years? Middling contracts, that we would have enough money for anyways. What have we gained from this increased cap space?

Great play by Griffin to knock that down

Well they traded for what they believe is their franchise quarterback...who had a season ending win jury last year. They are currently undefeated with him in 2019. (That could change at any moment)

This isn’t going to age well

What in the absolute eff was that kick?