Mango

NO is perpetually on the hook for a Brees contract +1 year. They’ve spread his cap hit for a while now to a year after he retires. I think it’s 10 mil.

I second every part of this. Ill never forget his response to a reporter asking “do you think Bills fans were rug to boo the offense off the field” or something like that. His response was along the lines of I am not a Buffalo Bills fan, I am an NFL player. I always took issue with that. Marshawn is close to the top in my FO blunders. I always loved the guy. Wish he stayed a Bill.

Agreed on most of this. I would add that the legs shouldn’t be added as equal to passing. The QB needs to be a passer first and runner second. If your QB can add a wrinkle, it should help add to his ability to pass, not replace. A QB who can run for 500+ yards is awesome, but it shouldn’t be included as a replacement for passing yards, TD’s, etc. That said, in regards to Lamar, he did a good job of throwing the ball on the move to a moving target this year. I wouldn’t put much stock in a fun skills drill after a long season. Much like every athletic QB, his longevity will be dependent on is ability to throw the ball efficiently and effectively.

5/11=7/16

Yeah. It’s not really a hodge-podge. I was hoping it was. I kept talking about these 50% games, so I thought I would dig into it. Hoping to see Brady, Rodgers, Wilson, mixed with Dalton, Stanford, and of course some Jamarcus Russel. It’s basically a list of 17 average to bad passers, plus Luck (surprised), Eli (Meh passer), and super athlete Vick (bad passer)

These are every bodies rookie years. Yes some guys panned out as very good QB’s and good passers. Most of them did not and had so Monday games in their first two years under 50% because they simply were not proficient passers (yet). I don’t know what to tell you man. If want to asterisk Allen’s games individually, go ahead and do it for everybody. I don’t think Allen is in this terribly bad place where we his situation is so much worse then his current and historical peers.

I was originally talking about Allen's clunkers, where he failed to connect on at least 50% of his passes. I was asserting that when that happens, more often than not, most of the blame falls on the QB. Yes there is also blame on things like the OL, Defense, WR, etc. but largely, having a high frequency of games sub 50% is an issue with the passer himself. For reference, I quickly grabbed sub 50% completion games for QB's in their first 2 years/32 games, since 2000 Here are the bottom 20. It is not a great list Granted there are some outliers, but it is not a great list of QB's. Most (not all) of which we would say were not good passers. The search function on PFR is awesome. Name Number of Games Under 50% passing Tim Tebow 10 Eli Manning 9 Joey Harrington 8 Michael Vick 8 Vince Young 8 Josh Allen 7 David Carr 7 Joe Flacco 7 Blaine Gabbert 7 Andrew Luck 7 Mike McMahon 7 Kyle Orton 7 Patrick Ramsey 7 JaMarcus Russell 7 Mark Sanchez 7 DeShone Kizer 6 Colt McCoy 6 Christian Ponder 6 Geno Smith 6 Brandon Weeden 6

Just to clarify- I wasn't talking about putting up 400 yards, throwing 6 TD's, and being productive, I was talking about how much blame should the QB harbor for not completing 50% of his passes in 3 football games. At least half the blame falls on the QB for not completing 50 percent of his passes for 3 ENTIRE NFL games. 50% is obviously an arbitrary number, but the conversation was trending towards identifying how much of the blame is on Allen. The answer- at least half. It isn't really a quantifiable question- but at least half is my answer to that question. And I stand by the idea that Allen takes a MAJORITY of the blame for failing to complete 50% of his passes on multiple ocassions. My response for EP is wrong and right. Yes it runs the same play from a number of formations, but that also means you can run a ton of plays from a single formation, because a huge portion of the playbook is on the table. At the end of the day EP is heavily reliant on the QB to accurately and quickly diagnose and label.

Which we know not to be true because that is basically the entire idea behind the Erhardt-Perkins. Run 100 different plays out of one formation based on what the defense is showing you. That does not mean, i do not get frustrated with BD's play calling. I do. I have spend many a Sunday pulling out my hair.

You mean like, when you look at him in shorts, it moves a little bit?

Are these nationally broadcasts or local stations (outside of ESPN)? If national, color me impressed.

Because we are told that Allen has some autonomy at the line to read the defense at the line and change protections/plays based on pre-snap reads. Plus making post snap reads/decisions and making the right decision with an accurate throw. So ultimately if the QB is correctly: - identifying the coverage -calling/changing the correct protections and routes -making the right read post snap -deliverying an accurate ball ...then they should be successful at completing more than 50% of those passes.

There is some truth to the defenses, but also some reubttle, and I think that this where the conversation gets lost. How much of the blame goes where. When it comes to passing the ball efficiently I would put most of the load on the QB. A sub 50% performance isn't going to fall on everybody but the QB. Hell, even if the OL, WR, and OC are all to blame, I would (conservatively) put 50% on the QB. Yes there is Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and NE x2. But Philly and Cleveland are pedestrian, and Houston is pretty trash.

I don't think people are that far off, just each side is taking an extra step 9 games >60% (removed Jets 2.0) 222 yards per game-66%-14TD- 5 INT 7 game <60% (plus Houston) 192 yards per game- 49%- 6TD- 4INT The issue is he has been almost as likely to lay an egg as he is to play well. Where everybody is missing whether this line is the penultimate decision on Allen. Half the season is pretty good, half the season is pretty bad. There is some improvement, but there is also a lot that remains the same, and leaves a lot to be desired. Could he do it? For sure. Should you bet your mortgage on it, probably not. I think the overarching ask for 2020 should be to drop the clunkers from 7 games to 3 or better. If he can do that, I would expect a stat line for the season to be about 3500 yards- 63%, and 2.5:1 TD:INT. His performances have just been so polarized, which is why I think removing the number of really bad games is more important than average stat line.

The mythical 300 yard game that means nothing... The mythical 60% completion percentage that means nothing... It's not inaccurate, it is imprecise... Nothing means anything... We get it, you are a contrarian and Josh Allen makes your belly tingle. I don't think it is the 58% on its own that is frustrating for people, it is the way he got it. In 7 games (of 17) he threw 53% or worse. In three of those he was under 50%. I think we can all agree those are pretty terrible numbers against even the best defenses in the league. About 40% of the time. the performance has been pretty bad. Even though there are a lot of things that go into that bad performance, a large part of games like that will fall on the QB. It is pretty rare that a QB will throw for <50% and everybody will let him down, while he plays well. If Josh can raise his floor and lower his frequency of bad performances, all of his numbers will take a huge leap and you will probably hear much less from the naysayers. But if Josh takes his 3 games at 60-61% and jumps them to 63%, but still lays 7 clunkers hovering at 50% +/-, and averages 61% for the season, people are going to be vocal about poor QB play. Because in 2020, 7 games flirting with the 50% marker is much too many.

I think the issue some are having in regards to completion percentage and drops, is that if you were to adjust to average drops, Allen is still ranking too close to the bottom of the totem poll in relation to his peers. In 2019, 60-61% after being adjusted, is still too far away from the league average. Not to mention, we shouldn’t adjust Allen’s numbers and not the rest of the league. I think it’s a fair point without being ridiculed as having an agenda. That number will trend much closer to average if Josh can eliminate the clunkers. He has to eliminate the NE x2, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Philly, Cleveland, and Houston. That’s 7 of 17 games trending poorly between 46-53%. Those aren’t games that are 1 catch from being average, those are games we were ineffective at throwing the football almost entirely. There are 10 games where he performed at or above average. We should be happy about that. 7 games are well below average, we can also be very concerned. Those feelings don’t need to be mutually exclusive.

There should be about 15 HC and GM’s interested in Bridgewater. He’s better than about half the starting QBs in the league. Even if you have a Baker Mayfield, Daniel Jones, Josh Allen, you should be asking the cost of TB because he’s an immediate upgrade.

point was, teams who get in their own way, generally are more consistently 8-8 than they are 10+ wins. Which is what I was responding too in regards to a thread about the Bills being super bowl competitors. They were 2 very flukey games from being 8-8. They got in their own way 6/16 games plus the playoffs. Teams that do that, are not generally close to the super bowl because they require too many bounces, flukes. Etc.

Meh, Bills are about average in terms of most position groups on that side the of the ball. They produce at a below average level. That needs to be A-number 1 going foward. -Why are we producing at a low level with what seems to be average NFL players? Honestly part of that is Allen and part of that is Daboll. -If we truly do have bottom 5 talent on the offensive side of the ball, then we have to ask very major questions of the FO too, because we brought in new starters at WR(2), OL(4), RB (2), TE(3). A big time WR would be awesome, I think every franchise would agree. But I am not sure that is THE biggest issue

Honest question. Say we hold a team to 3 and out at their own 15.They punt, caught at the 50 returned to the 40, what does that do to the yards after 25? Even if he fair catches at the 50, does he still get a 25 yard credit?

You are right, he did get help from a bunch of those things. I think Brown and Beasley are WR 2 and 3 on that roster. You have to look at who those Seattle WR's were not who they became later on. And given all of those things, RW still did more. Hence the adjusted passer rating where Russ actually gets a much higher lift than Josh does. They are not similar players. They aren't similar passers. Russ throws with much more touch, anticipation, and consistency than Josh who throws most throws on a rope with much more force, and does so much more inconsistency. Lets not even get into mechanics.... They don't have similar running styles. Russ is elusive and does a good job of protecting himself. Josh runs with power and aggression, at times seems like he searches out contact. This doesn't mean Josh sucks, but I don't think there has been anybody on here who as agreed with your argument that they are "identical". People have agreed Josh's weapons failed him at times, his trajectory seems good, etc. But their congruence, nah.

Going of pure stats, Russ was a better passer in nearly every single metric. Won more games, better completion %, more TD passes, higher TD %, more first downs, higher first down %, more first downs on less passing attempts, one less game winning drive and 4th quarter comeback. In terms of rushing, he had less rushing TD's, but had more yards per carry and more yards and less carries. I couldn't find 2013 drop rate or frequency by team. The closes I could get was adjusted passer rating. Adjusted passing actually favors Wilson WAAAYYY more than Josh. Josh- 91(+6 pts) Russ- 119 (+23 pts) Call me crazy but maybe, just maybe, these things are the reason he was voted to the Pro Bowl....now bare with me here, and this is a reach, those things could also be part of the reason they also won 3 more games than Buffalo. Josh Allen is not nearly as good as Russell Wilson's 2nd year currently. It is what it is. Doesn't mean he is a failure or a bust.

I am OK with a vast majority of the last CBA, EXCEPT this part. There is absolutely no reason why players shouldn’t be allowed to (or even required) to be in the teams facility working with coaches on things like film, weights, and walk throughs for 60%+ of the off season. There is 6 months from the Super Bowl to training camp. It would make the product much better. There is lno other elite sport (professional or Olympic) that gets this much time off from their professional team or NGB coaches.

I still think he is the best QB from that draft class. That draft class was just historically bad. 99% of the time if you were told that you have a chance to draft the best QB in the draft at 16-ish, you would jump at it. I’m not saying we should have kept him, or was good. Just a different look at it. He didn’t wash out of the league. He retired under contract in KC with no interest of bouncing around the league as a back up.

This is a "what if" It will be in the form of either: 1. Not taking the 5th year option 2. Not offering him a new contract (compared to starting QB salary/contract negotiations) Or at least not one that they can't get out of/afford while looking for a replacement. They will then be looking for contingency plans whether it be through the draft, FA, or trade. I have said before, I like Josh, he is electric. When it comes time to re-sign in 4 years, he needs to make HUGE strides to get that contract. Take a look at this roster and subtract $30-40M of players from it. Then ask if we can win 10+ games every year with it.