appoo

You can easily spread 24M , to make most of that money hit in 22. Convert about 15M to a roster bonus. Give him a 5M bonus, and a base salary of 2M per year. That's a 4.5M hit in YR1, and a 20M hit in YR2. But this is a dangerous game to play, as your basically banking on the Cap to hugely increase for 2022. If you do that with Watt, you'll have about 70M in cap space tied up between Allen, Watt and Edmunds (who's 5th year would be activated, unless the Bills choose to extend him this offseason/season to lessen that ~10-15M hit).

If you have a defensive football system that doesn't fit JJ Watt, then you're actually a soccer team, and you're playing a 4-4-2

He'd intrigue me as an EDGE rotation for when the Bills are down an distance situations. Not en every down player for this system

I hadn't realized that. His body screams 1T

Absolutely the eff not. Not only is he worse than Star (he graded quite poorly for the 3 games he's played) but he's not had two straight years worth of surgery shortened seasons. Oh and we can't afford to move on from Star, who Dead Cap prohibits it.

1T arent there to get sacks

Star himself is an above average 1T. 1 tier below Kenny Clark/Vita Vea. His positive impact is far greater than his abilities. With him back, the Bills get TWO new players. Star at the 1T,....and a close to elite 3T in Ed Oliver. Remember that JErry Hughes finished 2nd in Pass rush win rate. Having Star back and Watt signed? I mean QBs are going to feel that

Sign me up. Also more removed from his injury....and was elite in 2019. Might have another elite season in him Man... Watt -- Star -- Olive -- Hughes??! Thats the best damn DLine in the league!

Back to the debate of Pressures vs sacks....you're not gonna get a sack unless you get a pressure.

The Packers are 20M over the cap. They a lot of work to get to 180M, and would need at least 10M in cap space to sign Watt.

The bills put more pressure on Lamar Jackson than the Bucs put on Patrick Mahomes, for reference. In terms of pressures. The Bills definitely got a lot of pressure on opposing QBs in a lot of games this season, and Jerry Hughes had a very good year in beating his lineman within 2 seconds (pass rush win). The problem is that while the Bills had effective pass rush, it was only effective when they blitzed. When they chose not to blitz, they’d get torched. Part of that was because they were forced to play Ed Oliver at 1T so often. Part of that was because they didn’t have a consistent pas rusher opposite Hughes. The NFL, when you have good teams against each other, is a matchup and game plan league. Hence the Chiefs getting blown out by the Bucs, the Bills getting blown out by the Chiefs, but if the Bills and Bucs played, likely would have been a pretty good game

plus having ugly ass uniforms. Perhaps not a coincidence the Bills returned to prominence along with returning to the having one of the best unis in the league

That's sort of what I was disagreeing with. For example, restructure both Hughes and Addison so they only hit at <5M in terms of cap (which is likely what they'd get in the open market), release Morse, Brown and Jefferson, sign a legit EDGE - and you have an excellent 4 man rotation at the EDGE with Hughes, New Signing, AJE, and Addison. You combine that with an elite 1T in Oliver, a pretty good 3T in Star...and that gets you to pretty close to an elite pass rush, equivalent to that of the Bucs, depending on who you sign as your new EDGE. The Chiefs made the D look bad, but they took advantage of basically a single match-up issue - our DEs vs their tackles. Oliver actually had a pretty good game, and with just one guy like Barrett, that's a VERY different ball game. The Bills have a better back 7 than the Bucs.

Sucks is a strong word. Hughes, Oliver, and both backers are all plus players. Star is going to be another good one. AJE, with a good off season, has potential to be above average. Oliver especially has superstar potential if we ever get him back playing primarily 1T, and he has someone next to him to keep the double/triples off him. This team DID go 13 - 3, and they pretty much destroyed the Ravens & Steelers' OLine.

Think Levis lacks the quickness to be a slot corner. I actually think a more interesting plan would be to use Levi as your boundary corner, Dane as your field corner, and Tre as your slot corner.

Bills certainly have a better OLine, and the Bills strength on the OLine is better suited against the Bucs strengths, which is on the edge. Dawkins and Williams are approx a million times better than what the Chiefs had out there at tackle. Basically, the Bucs wouldn't have had NEARLY the pass rush effectiveness they did against the Chiefs. Football at this level, is about matchups. I think the Bills would have put up 30+, depending on the health of Beasley and Gabe Davis. They'd have moved the ball well. Defensively? Well that's problematic. The Bucs do bring a pretty good OLine, and getting pressure would have required a lot of blitzing. McDermott is happy to bring pressure when he doesn't fear the opposing passing attack (Ravens, when he pressured LJ at a historic level, more than the Bucs did to Mahomes actually), but likely would have employed a bend but don't break against the Bucs. Now the Bills have a more talented back 7 than the Chiefs, but the Bucs also bring two elite perimeter threats in Godwin and Evans....I think the Bucs wouldn't get big plays, but would get their yards and first. Basically? I think this game would have come down to RZ TD conversion. Put me down for this game being a toss up

Against the Chiefs, the Bucs were often in a base 4 down look, and they rarely sent any blitzers. So Barrett played DE in that game the same way McDermott would use him. Let's not over think this one. Barrett would be perfect for this defense. (on a related note - Mahomes actually played really well that game. He was pressured on more than 50% of his drop backs, which basically what the Bills did to Lamar Jackson...that fact that he produced the yards/1st downs he did was a testament to his talent. Similar game to Allen in the AFCCG - whom I also gave a lot of credit to) You've got to be average somewhere, and Levi wouldn't be a bad option at that position.

All in all, it's not a great year for EDGE defenders in FA, as I don't think there's a guy out there who would be a consensus choice, except maybe Shaq Barrett who's going to be a 20M a year guy. I guess that's within the realm of possibility, but it would seriously limit what you can do with the other 10 - 12 players the bills would need - which includes 2 starters on the oline, and a new backer as well, and at least one more WR who can contribute.

Bills can generate almost 35M in cap space by cutting Morse, Addison, Brown, Hughes and Jefferson. Maybe you re-structure Hughes to get him down a to a 5M hit so you can sit at 30M. But you gotta be willing to use that space to get an elite EDGE, IMO. And replace those dudes with draft picks, practice squad players who can provide depth, or vet FA who are on the cheaper side

I agree with this, except that neither Levi nor Norman will even be on the roster. They are both F/As, and I don't really see a need for the Bills to resign either, even with an extra 6M in they seem to be speculating about. You could easily replace Levi with a contract friendlier draft pick, and you just elevate Dane Jackson to replace Norman. To me, getting either Clowney or Ngakoue would be a priority.

They're not even in the same ball park in terms of ability. Even as much as Peterson struggled in 2020, I think he'd be perfect for us in our man/zone hybrid scheme. The real problem is that he might get 10M AAV for 2 years in the market.

So was Richard Sherman when he went to the Niners, and he responded with two really good seasons. I'd be all in on Peterson

exactly. When they’re not allowed to cheat, it’s a very average defense

Yea, excellent point. I hadn't realized he was so checked out. I think 5M would be the cutoff for me (Edge defenders tend to be really expensive), but anything more and I think you're using too much cap for someone who's such an enigma. It's an interesting philosophical discussion. One of the ways college teams counter elite programs with blue chip recruited defenders, is with tempo. Not just how fast you snap, but how quickly you release the ball. When a QB is throwing the ball in less than 3 seconds, getting a sack is almost out the question. I've been noticing some of that show in the NFL these days. When that happens, just moving him off his base and delaying him half a second is basically a win, and that's where someone like Jerry Hughes adds a ton of value. Guys who win their matchup in the first 2 seconds. It's an evolving game, and we might need better metrics.

That's a fair critique