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obie_wan

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Posts posted by obie_wan

  1. Only a fool would claim that any player is a shoo-in destined for a great NFL career. Too many great regarded players have had unfortunate breaks (literally in some cases) or turned out to be poor players once they pocketed their bonus for one to make that claim. Too many late draftees and even UDFAs have mounted great careers.

     

    The question is where will Hardy fall on what is likely to be result which is likely more disappointing for those who see him as a consistent pro Bowler or more impressive for those who see him destined to be a bust.

     

    The good news for the Bills is that all should agree he is a tremendous specimen who has had some (but not total) significant success as a TD producer.

     

    Other teams will need to adjust to him simply based on the fear of what he might do and the mismatches he creates.

     

    This will likely be a boon to Lee Evans who will not see the DTs or biased coverage toward him that other teams could mount last year with little fear that Fairchild and the Bills offense would make them pay for have an overwhelming focus on Evans.

     

    This coverage will not last if Hardy is not able to produce at all. However, the tea leaves are clearly in the Bills favor on this one.

     

    Teams will not shift coverage away from Evans until they are burned by someone else consistently.

     

    As a rookie, Hardy may or may become effective on the field, since he has shown an inability to got off the line and to get separation.

     

    Until he makes big plays for long yardage or TDs, teams will not show him any more respect than the Bills other WRs.

  2. I hate to continually argue semantics with you, but Losman didn't "cost" the Bills three picks, unless you are of the opinion that each player drafted "costs" the team one pick. The Bills used their first round pick in the subsequent year's draft to select Losman -- and "paid" for the right to do that with two picks (2nd and 5th).

     

    Again, it's just semantics, but it implies the Bills spent more than they did for this particular player.

     

    Not sure how any other conclsuion if possbile.

     

    Instead of 3 players, they got JP.

     

    Looks like he cost them 3 picks to me.

  3. Down the middle of the field, Trent Edwards was 14-30 for 198 yards the entire season, at 46.7%

    I already showed in this thread that Losman's short passes were far more accurate overall than Edwards, statistically speaking.

     

    http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/splits?playerId=10536

     

     

    When speaking statistically, many things get lost in the numbers.

     

    One of the biggest is the generation of yards after the catch.

     

    The ability of the offense to convert 3rd downs and stay ont the field is dependant on the QB delivering the ball to the receiver is a position to turn upfield for more yardage.

     

    A QB can get credit for a reception which results in a high completion percentage, while not helping his YAC. Low passes, high passes, button hooks thrown off target all can be caught - but do not threaten the defense.

     

    When a QB is not trusted to throw to a moving WR on crossing pattern, slant or seam pattern, the offense becomes extremely hamstrung.

     

    From what I saw of Trent, he was able to deliver the ball to his receivers in motion where they could turn upfield. He was also able to utilize the left, right and middle of the field.

     

    He still needs to work on reading defenses, however, he has shown the ability to deliver the ball where it needs to be.

  4. This is a big pet peeve of mine. Without question this is all conjecture, and we all just have varying opinions on this. There are no facts to back up anyone's opinions. But it's an interesting discussion.

     

    I think people confuse the terms role model and hero when applied to sports stars. And I think that basically all kids know right from wrong. They may not act it, but they basically know it. And I don't think it happens all that much that a kid sees a player do something off the field, and then copies it, or accepts it as cool, or brushes it off as being right when they know it is wrong because their favorite player did it. A bet millions of kids watched Pete Rose over the years and looked up to him as a player. A huge amount hustled like Rose because they saw him do that. They barreled into catchers coming from third because they saw him do it. They copied his swing or his toughness and/or wore his jersey and saved his baseball card because they watched him play and he was a great hitter and player.

     

    I doubt there was more than five kids ever that thought it was okay to bet on baseball games as a player because Pete Rose did. And if they did, they were hopeless to start.

     

    No kid, or extremely few, IMO, thinks it's okay to hit and run now because Marshawn Lynch got away with it. I just don't think that happens. They will cheer for him and wear his jersey and maybe copy his hairstyle, and mimic things he does on the field, but the role model and hero stuff ends there. They basically know right from wrong.

     

    The same way that I doubt kids copy the NFL's great citizens actions off the field. I doubt many 12 year olds see that Donte Whitner is a great guy off the field and start to invite younger kids into their house because they want them to succeed and they know how hard it was being 10 years old two years ago. They, instead, wear Donte Whitners jersey and take 10 year olds and beat the snot out of them and give them wedgies and swirlies because that's what kids do.

     

    They may not actively conduct hit and run pedestrians.

     

    However, the bigger message is that Marshawn made out by avoiding responsibilty - and everyone else should do it too because it works.

  5. That one thing is as follows: Trent Edwards showed a great ability to walk into a game, call a play from the sidelines, step up to the line, look at the defense before the snap, decide where he is likely going to go with the ball, take the snap, drop back, quickly set up and make a quick decision (he had already made) and throw a very nice looking short pass usually right into the WRs arms. That's what he did, and he did it very well. But that's also MOST of what he did well.

     

    The ONE thing you give credit to Trent for is actually 3 things, which all by themselves is probably good enough without further improvement for a .500 record. This is much more than 20% of what a QB needs to be successful in the NFL.

     

    1. pre-snap read He has shown the ability to identify the defense shown pre-snap and to recognize which WR will be the best to exploit the coverage. Does not lock onto 1 WR.

     

    2. post-snap read - After the snap, he is able to recognize what the defense is actually doing and to confirm that his pre-snap read was proper. Remains to be seen if he will be able to identify various stunts and tricks while under heavy pressure, but experience will help greatly in this regard.

     

    3. hit WR in stride to generate yards after catch This is a huge plus which allows those short passes to become threats to turn into long gainers and 1st downs. No defesne is scared of an offense which is limted to throwing come backs and hitches due to the inaccuracy of its QB. This skill will allow the Bills to incorporate the seam pass to the TE and the slant pass back in to the offense.

  6. Is this Bizarro Saturday? Two posts of yours in a row I agree with?

     

    For those who keep harping upon Jauron's "eight losing seasons" and call him a "coach nobody wanted" I ask you this -- how many teams wanted Marv Levy in 1986? Sometimes the right circumstances need to fall into place. Jauron's work in Buffalo for the past two seasons has earned him the right to be given the benefit of the doubt in 2008.

     

    As like Marv,Jauron is a very good motivator. Even with all the injuries last year, the team showed up every week.

     

    Also like Marv, he is must too loyal and trusting of his coordinators. This works great if the OC and DC are producing. But he should have mandated that Fairchild change his playcalling or take the duties away last year after Fairchild proved inept.

     

    If Marv had fired Walt Corey, the Bills would have won a SuperBowl or 2.

  7. Let's talk about missing the point. It seems that my point flew over your head. That being, Edwards MUST get the ball into the endzone this year or the Bills are toast. Your arguing this point is very funny to me. It's also funny that any criticisms of Edwards is always met with the "well you like JP better" comebacks. My only mention of JP was in the example of his best and only year as the fulltime starter. Like it or not, he did have a good TD pass percentage. Edwards needs to "up" his game. It seems that many here are already enamored with him and refuse to see any flaws. He's the Bills version of Obama. Sorry, but Trent rarely threw touchdown passes. It's a flaw in his game. He needs to correct it or Jaroun will be forced to bench him in an effort to save his job. Be it in favor of Losman or Hamdan.

     

    Neither QB threw enough TDs.

     

    Most of this problem was from Fairchild not attacking the endzone and actually trying to throw TDs.

     

    From some of blurbs from camp, it sounded like Turk was throwing to the endzone from outside the 20 - which is wher them majority of passiong TDs are generated. The defense is not bunched together and the offesnes can still run most patterns.

  8. You and SB are right on the money. This is the "crossroads" year for Jauron and the Bills. This is the year this team either looks and plays like a winner or things hopefully will and should change. If this team plays like it did those last three games in 07 going down the stretch how could it be possible to truly still believe in a coach with seven of eight losing seasons under his belt. To believe otherwise would be some serious denial. I think he's a lousy coach, hope I'm wrong, hope he marches this team back to the glory days.

     

    More important than Jauron are his cooridnators.

     

    Fewell has shown to be flexible and not absolutely married to a strict cover-2.

    He should produce as long as the DT and LB plays to expectations -Straud needs to stay on the field.

     

    The big question is whether the Turk will be strong enough to run a balanced offense and not get hamstrung by Jauron.

     

    Jauron may set the tone, but he sure let Fairchild run his own show last year.

  9. I'd like a transcript of the 2002 war room, I'd guess it went something like this:

     

    TD: "Damn, Detroit took Harrington, he's gonna be a great one. Hey I've got an idea, since we can't draft Harrington, lets get the fattest, laziest offensive tackle, I don't care that he hates playing football and he's a lousy driver, Gregg and Ronnie will whip his @ss & mind into shape."

     

    With the 4th pick in the 2002 draft, Buffalo selects Mike Williams OT, Texas.

     

    gotta agree that TD panicked after Detroit stole his boy Joey H.

  10. You've got to be kidding me!!! Hey I liked Wilfork too but he wouldn't have provided a small offensive spark there that we needed at the time. Seriously I think the team would've been worse off w/o Lee.

     

    Bills could have signed any number of free agent WRs to generate some offensive production.

     

    they still haven't plugged the middle to stop the run and push the pocket.

     

    cross your fingers that Straud does not get injured or suspended

  11. Improvement this year will be gauged by forward progress, not wins and losses- we may be a better team by probably fall short of last year's record. I'm ok with that, player development is a marathon, not a sprint. If I think we are better than last year, I will be happy

     

    and then the coach gets fired

     

    and you start all over again with the new coach's favorite players and schemes

  12. Sorry, but Jauron has done well to win 14 games with a terrible team. And the Bills have been terrible since their last playoff appearance against Tennessee

     

    caution -

     

    this is a standard reply

     

     

    big part of being terrible has been their very weak OL - caused by spending only 3 picks on the OL in the top 4 rounds over the last 10 years (44 picks)

     

    Many of the picks not spent on the OL were spent on DBs -who may have been successful- but were then not retained.

     

    Bills need to use their high picks on long term fixtures of the team

  13. OJ did a lot of the things you mention & is on the wall of fame. Now a lot of them were not as a Bill, but some, like the drugs were.

     

    I guess the point is - if you are going to bring players with character problems onto your teams who could cause major embarassment or worse - they better perform to an extremely high level on the field to justify the risk.

     

    Remains to be seen with Lynch

     

    Hardy is not even signed yet.

  14. After switching from DirecTV to Dish, I no longer have the games to watch, so I'll have to take your word for it. My question is, were we still zone blocking at that point, or is it after we starting man blocking more?

     

    nobody knew what scheme they were running last year, including the players.

     

    with McNally gone, hopefully Kugler will be able to focus on the basics and implement a drive blockig scheme which favors the large bodies on the line.

     

    Maybe the surgery Fowler just had will correct an injuyr that hampered his play far more than was let on. But without any adequate backups, he had to suck it up and play hurt last yeawr.

     

    Good thing they addressed the OL depth this year. :lol:

  15. Because not having a good center collapses the whole line. Walker's inability to run block hurt us too. How many times was Lynch hit in the backfield- that isn't Fairchild's fault, thats the blocking. Our RB's couldn't pick up the blitz- thats more blocking. When that much blocking is off, you don't have much offense.

     

    We had one starting caliber WR in Evans and a pretty good slot WR in Reed who had to play outside, negating his skills.

     

    We had two young QB's including a rookie....

     

    I say our offense was actually better than it should have been

     

    The unspoken problem with the run game is that Lynch runs to the wrong hole making the line look bad

  16. PTR

    I am not one of the people that hates the Bills playing a game in Toronto etc....I happen to think it is a good idea to regionalize things better, help the Bills make an extra buck or two or 10M. But I am just sick of the doomsdayers and how the Bills are gone etc...after Ralph passes.

    I am very aware of the fact we have no debt service on the stadium or team and that helps immensely. But Ralph always crying poor and how we cannot compete etc is also somewhat misleading. He makes a good 30M profit on the team. The TV money pays for the salaries of the players outright. Then the other revenues pay the extras and coaches etc...I am well aware that having 25M in interest payments a year really cuts into a new owner having the team. But to then say TO or LA (which has already failed TWICE supporting an NFL team) deserves or will take the Bills I think is very unlikely. Most markets are NOT NYC or DC/Dallas. Baltimore, Minneapolis, Cleveland, NO, Cinci, Jacksonville, Miami, Tampa, Tennessee, KC, Pittsburgh, etc.....are all very similar to B'lo. This market can and will support the Bills at a profit. When push comes to shove, moving this franchise will have enormous obstacles to overcome. Things in WNY could be better but combine Buffalo/Rochester/So Ontario (not including Toronto) and you have 3+ million people to support the team. Plus you have NYS that is NOT going to let this go......NO politician wants to be on the clock if the Bills move.

    Hey, I agree with you that it will be virtually impossible to get a new stadium etc given the debt service in addition to a new owner......but we will all probably live with that!

    As a Bills fan who used to live in Boston I know all the rumbles heard elsewhere and how Buffalo is such a dying town etc......but there a quite a few connected and wealthy people around here that will not let this beloved team leave. Expect the Bills to stay......I went through this with the Flutie years too. I do wish Ralph would make pre-arrangements to ensure and calm the people here that the franchise will stay. I do think his words and actions fan the flames.......and remember, the Ontario media has said an NHL team is coming to Hamilton for th past 25 years!!!! I have yet to see it happen, and they would much rather have that then an NFL team.

     

     

    your math is bad

     

    new owners will borrow $500 mil at a minimum to buy the team, probably much more.

     

    10% interest only on $500k is $50 mil per year which wipes out that tidy $30 mil profit Ralph was enjoying. And this does not include debt service on paying down the principal.

     

    The Toronto joint venture is the only way to tap into the big corporate money necessary to compete in the NFL.

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