ToGoGo
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Posts posted by ToGoGo
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The instance here is usage rate of players. It is harder to win a tournament with high usage players so lineups with low usage, high potential scoring players gives the best return on investment and these employees knew the usage rate and their site so the usage rate at other sites is likely comparable with some variation allowed for differences in salaries.
A ha! That makes a lot of sense. Big advantage. Nobody monitors these guys anyways, who busted them?
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Aw man, I play on DraftKings, now I know every game I enter I am putting a little money in those jackholes' pockets? That bums me out.
Regardless, every game with meaningful money you're playing against sharps that use computer algorithms to predict winners. They're going to beat you 8 out of 10 times. Something like 1% of all players stay in the green over the course of the year.
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There's a lot of talk in the article about "data" and "insider information". What data and inside information do the employees have? Does this mean they take the lineups of the must successful bettors and use them on the competing site? For all the details in the articles, this was really vague.
I'm surprised the NFL allows Kraft and Jones to own a piece of Draft Kings. Oh wait, they are the NFL.....how silly of me....
Don't be. Draftkings is partnered with MLB and Fanduel is partnered with the NBA. They're quietly trying to legalize sports gambling.
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I think it's a very obvious thing to do.
Right now the most vulnerable area to fixing games is calling penalties on crucial plays. Whether you agree that it's done or not, I think people should acknowledge THAT is the way it would be done IF it's done.
They should implement reviews for that reason alone.
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First, what would you know about what happens on planet Earth?
Second, your thread title tells us to log off, and the thread itself demands that we argue with your post.
Third, Pegula is a pretty smart guy. Why would he spend 1.4 billion on a team who's parent organization is overtly opposed to its success?
I always enjoy your out-of-your-mind posts/threads, but why not just answer my question and then go to bed?
To answer this, I always think about the ESPN report where the owners knew Goodell was covering up Spygate but went with it to protect the "shield". Billionaires don't like to lose money.
Teams make a large percentage of their money from revenue sharing. The more revenue there is, the more revenue there is to share. And if there is more revenue when the Cowboys or Giants or Patriots are good, then the owners would go along with it.
Pegula came out of absolutely nowhere. I never heard of the guy before he bought the Sabres and I don't know anybody else who did. Who knows what his motives truly are.
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I dont follow the NHL much, but I do like to think its the least corrupt league of the major four - least referee involvment. Anyone agree/disagree?
Inter-league makes way too much sense. Explains how Cutler feel into their laps.
NHL might be the most rigged with the LA and Chicago turning into powerhouses, and now the Rangers in the finals. Boston a couple years ago, etc. Don't forget Bettman is a Stern crony, and despite the forward-thinking, so is Adam Silver.
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The league social media dept. only concentrates on the official message boards. They outsource the secondary and obscure boards.
Their main concern is the official boards. If you notice a poster pro-ref after an embarrassment like this, he probably has an Indian accent.
Imo
Good insight.
But in my experience you can spot the outsourced Indian reps by their overly formal way of typing. I haven't seen that on here. Unless they have scripts.
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And same reason why its always the pats at the other end. Kraft/NFL really cashes in when the pats are on top due to the wealth in Boston/NE. If the bills were on top, im not sure how much more Bills fans would splurge on tix, gear, etc.
To play devil's advocate, why aren't the Jets or Bears better? They did have deep playoff runs over the last decade but nothing like the Patriots.
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JG - interesting hypothesis. Why Buffalo though? I would think, if the NFL was really smart about it, they wouldn't keep hitting the same team - they'd spread it around. Lets face it, if the league wanted to continue to stay under the radar, I don't think they'd continually have the Bills as the victim. Further, if the ref's wanted to throw the league, I don't think they'd keep picking on the same team....alas, I think it's just ineptitude on the part of the Bills.
One suggestion is that we're small market and we sell-out no matter what. The NFL knows the Bills won't make much more money whether they win or lose.
Makes you see this in a different light:
Per @DanGrazianoESPN, Giants coach Tom Coughlin told his players before Sunday's game that the Bills would beat themselves with penalties.
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Why would I own a gun?
And why would I hurt anyone?
You're jumping at the wrong shadows, friend.
What's happened over the last 10 years or so is that whenever somebody accuses X group/corporation of conspiring to do Y, they are immediately grouped in with lizard people/UFOs/JFK/etc.
The truth is governments/intelligence agencies/corporations and many other groups work by conspiring against the public and are actually caught all the time.
They have turned "conspiracy theorist" into a slur in order to discredit ANYTHING remotely close to one. It's very dangerous propaganda and it worked.
The NFL fixing games does not seem insane to me, especially when it happened in the NBA less than 10 years ago.
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There's something up with him. Even after making the 51 yarder he seemed unsure of himself. He seems prone to the yips like what happened to him in Miami.
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It seems far-fetched, but the same thing that doomed us versus the pats doomed us today, which is penalties in crucial situations.
I've said it many times before, IF the NFL is fixed, it would be via refs calling penalties at critical times. It would not be the players because they're paid too much, but refs, who as johnnygold pointed out, are part-time employees. And it would not be by calling a lot of penalties since that shows up on the box score, but calling penalties at CRITICAL times since that is not kept as a statistic in any way, shape, or form.
It happened in the NBA folks, not making that up. It could happen in the NFL.
HOWEVER, when Donaghy did it, it wasn't about who won but about the spread. I believe we were 6 point favorites here so I'm not sure why the Incognito call would have to be made.
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Right. The D was pretty good today save the one horrible lapse on the low rent pass for a 51 yd TD. They also got lucky on a huge gainer that could have broken their back not for a penalty on NYG. By and large though, the ridiculously ineffective offense ( esp in the 1st half ) lost this game. A completed pass was a struggle and their best play of half might have been a NYG penalty. Defensively, bottom line is OBJ didn't come close to killing you, and that = a pretty good day vs Giants.
Even then, it was coming away with 0 on two red zone drives that ruined us. How is it possible to come away with 0 without a turnover? Just a disaster.
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Taylor looks good despite the bad start to the game. We need to attack on both sides of the ball next week.
Taylor did look good in the 2nd half. He was overthinking in the 1st half. Started using his feet in the 2nd.
I think he did enough for us to win today.
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It's his third year and the team's record should not be a reflection on him until he was the top guy. 6-10, 9-7, TBD.
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Blowout win, bad game, blowout win, bad game. I'm seeing a pattern.
I watched the All-22 of the Giants during the week. I thought the only way they can beat us is if Eli throws the short timing routes and we don't defend them. Well that's exactly what happened the 1st half just long enough to fall into a 16-3 hole. What the f*ck is Ryan and Thurman thinking after the Pats game? Do they not know that the Giants are going to throw short timing slants? I'm an amateur observer and I figured it out.
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The biggest problem with this team right now is that the coaches and players believe in themselves to such an unreasonably high degree that they think if they simply show up at the ballpark on Sunday, it's 90% in the bag. They don't have to prepare, they don't have to play smart and technically sound football, all they have to do is show up and things will take care of themselves.
Rex is the source of this destructive narcissism. He believes in his own abilities so strongly that he can't or won't invest the time needed to manage the finer details of the game of football.
It got him fired in New York and it might get him fired here.
Best summary I've seen yet.
After a game I close my eyes, clear my mind, and try to figure out the "story" of the game and why we won or lost. All I could think about was that we were the better team and we came out there unprepared. We got outblocked in the run game and kept making dumb mistakes at inopportune times. I'm not one to blame the coach usually, but I think this ones on Rex.
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Really, really unlucky day. The INT, the fumble, the missed FG, the Bradham whiff, the penalty on the Giant's FG. Football gods were not on our side today. Sure a lot is on us and the playcalling, but some real funky stuff happened today.
We're a better team than this.
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I thought this !@#$ing game was all about player protection? Shouldn't the refs had blown the whistle?
I was thinking the same thing. How can a receiver hold on to the ball with two DBs grabbing at the ball. Whistle needs to be blown. I don't care what the rules say, that shouldn't be a fumble.
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Coverage just looks tighter than it does w Sammy W on the field. He doesn't seem confident firing into tight window after the INT. Gotta shake it off like the good QBs do. No pass threat out of backfield is making it easier to defend our running game. Not sure what the answer is but hopefully we make some huge adjustments.
I think he's just thinking too much out there. He's not playing by instinct.
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We'll see how good the staff is on adjustments...
Right on; This is a test. They made good 2nd half adjustments against the Pats, let's see what we can do here.
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Awful half. But we can come back.
We need turnovers and Tyrod to get into a groove. And get the ball to Harvin.
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Let's address this whole "changed the culture" argument you seem to be clinging to.
"Clinging to". You've now started off two different replies with something that makes me roll my eyes.
It seems Rex has done more to "change the culture" in six months than Marrone did in two years.
It's true Rex has changed the culture. Positive charisma is the most powerful drug on the planet. However, just because Rex has changed it quicker (with an improved roster) does not automatically discount Marrone from changing it too.
"X being successful does not make Y a failure."
Marrone's Bills underperformed. He bungled the QB situation, nearly all of his players on offense regressed, and he sat back and relied upon a talented defense to win 15 games in two years -- one of those against a lame duck opponent in W17. He put an injured rookie WR into a meaningless preseason game and got him further dinged up. He made in-game decisions that showed a complete lack of faith in his team; he played scared.I'd argue that specific positions on offense underperformed, but the team overperformed in general.
Relying on the defense, bungling in-game decisions, and other little things have nothing to do with my definition of changing the culture. "By any means necessary" is a part of my definition. "Only in specific ways" seems to be part of yours.
I'm talking in general, but you keep "clinging" to specifics.
Another news flash -- when Bryce Brown fumbled the ball against KC the Bills were ahead. I don't remember the last time a player who failed to make a critical play with his team leading was then held responsible for a loss when there was more than a quarter to play.You keep attempting to take a win away from Marrone and paint him as 8-8 in order to help your stance. The truth is he's 9-7. Our opinions on the Patriots and Chiefs games don't really matter. Another truth is that he had the first winning season in nearly 10 years.
Sure, there's no "guarantee" he couldn't have had success with the Bills this season if he was still here, but we wouldn't have Greg Roman and we probably wouldn't have Tyrod, Incognito, or Harvin either.Of course we wouldn't have Roman and maybe Tyrod or Harvin. And the offense may not be as exciting. But my point is that I think Marrone would have found a way to improve our offense with some of those better players (like KW, McCoy, Miller). I think we would still be 2-1 right now with Marrone and Schwartz, but perhaps not as fun to watch.
Marrone was getting more and more agitated with the press and his overall demeanor reflected the fact that he wasn't dealing with the stress of leading this team very well. There is more evidence to support the notion he would have presided over another middling effort this season, than suggesting the Bills would have turned the corner.He had a winning season despite that stress. With an improved roster and the same stress, I don't see why we would have been a worse team.
If you're arguing that the stress would have snowballed and he would have had a breakdown that ruined the season, well that's a unique viewpoint I haven't heard yet. It's interesting and something I can consider.
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There are always going to be people on this board who jump up to "shout down" opinions they don't like despite the fact that they do not have a counterpoint.
Ignorance is bliss.
15 years ago if someone on TSW would have pointed out a QB's yards per attempt as a meaningful stat here there would be a ton of "wow"'s and "a QB control that" nonsense.
Now we know that certain stats that once weren't used or maybe even available for broader analysis are now great indicators of future success.
Right now the NFL and most sports leagues are still in the pound of cure is less effort than finding a way to prevent injuries......but as the margins start to tighten for owners as the unions get bigger shares of the pie then I think we will see a them become much more interested in protecting their investments.
We've already seen it to some extent with the concussion issue. The threat of lost revenue has had them spending to find solutions.
Or just fringe ideas in general. You go back in history and some fringe ideas are nonsense, but many more move into the center like "the earth is round" and "yards per attempt is important" as you mentioned.
NYT: Insider betting scandal in Fantasy Football
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
I used to do affiliate marketing and I know Draftkings was all over it. What that means is they allow approved publishers to promote their business and for everybody that signs up, the publisher is paid a fee. My guess is they are outsourcing their advertising to everybody on Earth to saturate the market.
A more sinister theory is that the major sports leagues are using fantasy betting to prime the public to more readily accept straight-forward sports betting in a few years when it becomes legal.
Which is on par with everybody else. Most people aren't losing thousands of dollars. They just lose a bit more than they win. Only the top percent makes a nice profit.