ToGoGo
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Posts posted by ToGoGo
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1 hour ago, strive_for_five_guy said:
Right, but the pick is a year down the road, rather than in this year’s draft. The value of a 1st round pick in next year’s draft is worth less today, versus 1st round pick in this year’s draft. Give me $100 today, and I’ll give you the $100 back in 10 years w no interest. Sound like a good deal?
It’s $100 in 1 year, not 10.
And the drop from 1st round to 2nd round is a lot more than 5th round to 6th round for example.
I’m just saying if I was GM, I wouldn’t like that value reasoning. -
2 hours ago, strive_for_five_guy said:
In reality, it’s speculative. Obviously very much depends where the Bills finish in 2024. My understanding to get the value of a pick in next year’s draft, you essentially go back a round from this year’s draft. A 2nd round pick in this year’s draft is worth 270-580, depending on where one is picking. So if you think the Bills will be better than worse in 2024, their 2025 #1 is worth closer to 270 than 580.
Doesn’t make sense. Bills pick 28th this year. Worst they can do next year is 32nd. Teams know it’s going to be worth at least 600 points.
I don’t know, if I was selling, I wouldn’t like these prices.
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9 hours ago, Virgil said:
https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp
For those interested in trading up, here's some scenarios. This is not to say that I want to Bills to make any of these moves. Just putting information out there.
Bills Picks - Value
#28 - 660
#60 - 300
#128 - 44
#133 - 39.5
2025 #1 - 300
2025 #2 132
2025 #2 (Diggs) - 150?
These are the values of different tiers in the top 20 for this draft:
5 - 1700
10 - 1300
15 - 1050
20 - 850
So, for those who want a top 4 receiver, which are projected to go in the top 10-15, you'd be looking at:
Top 10 - 1300 Value - #28, #60, #133, 2025 #1
Top 15 - 1050 Value - #28, #60 or next year's 1st, and #2 next year from Diggs trade
For me, that's way to rich for my blood in such a deep draft class. But, I also wouldn't be surprised if one of them fell beyond 10.
Why is a 2025 #1 only 300 points? -
10 minutes ago, BeastMaster said:
I don't know how much this hurts us as a team this season, but I do know those that are now ripping Diggs performance in the last half of the season and in the playoffs since he's no longer a Bill are probably not thinking about the attention he was getting which allowed guys like Shakir to make plays. That stuff matters, and now those players will have more attention coming their way. Just putting things in perspective a bit
Another thing I want to comment on is that Beane has really done something very unlike him...which is to paint himself into a corner in the draft. Now the Bills have made it blatantly obvious that we need to draft wideouts, and early at that. What I'd like to see is for him to stand pat and draft a Legette, Mitchell, or Keon Coleman if he feels they are worthy of the spot they would be selected.
If Beane does decide to move up, then he better be absolutely positive he's getting a star because it's going to cost us alot this year and probably next as well
Beane also better hope the Texans don't beat us and advance further in the playoffs. That will make things even more embarrassing for a franchise that doesn't need anymore of that
Stop questioning Beane so much. Just enjoy the ride. -
LAMP
in Off the Wall
The first window was an amazing run considering we just came off the drought.
The second window will be when we start winning SBs. Be careful what you wish for opposing fans and trolls.
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9 hours ago, Success said:
Mind you - I am not saying we will or should be SB favorites, or even considered a top 3-4 contender.
But losing Diggs changes very little, imo. A lot will depend on who we get in the 1st round this year, and if they can adjust quickly to the pro's.
Diggs did nothing for us in the past 2 playoff losses, and his production was way down the entire 2nd half of last season (when we made our run).
Just responding to thoughts in the Diggs thread that his trade clearly means a year off, and a rebuild. To me, it means a trade up for a better receiver, and we'll still be contending. I don't see this as some sort of window-closer.
I think we surprise this year. But I think next year is when the SB window really opens. -
6 minutes ago, BBFL said:
Higgins could work but you’re probably better off keeping the draft pick as he doesn’t really define game changing talent.
Jefferson is a mental option as you’re giving up at least 2 firsts then sign him a massive contract where he wants $30m p/y. His own words.
Question becomes, if indeed it were a possibility, do you handicap your whole team for a QB/WR combo that’s proven? Or handicap the picks to a guy on a cost controlled contract to pair with your proven QB?
Pros and cons for both.
Great points.
Option 3 is a Diggs type player out there on a reasonable contract that is looking for a change of scenery.
If he’s out there, Beane and staff will find him.
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Is it realistic to make a trade for Jefferson or Higgins this year and push most of the cap hit on a new contract to next year?
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50 minutes ago, davspo said:
Not really sure what this is all about. To me he sounded defeated.
I still don't understand his contract extension - he was under contract and there was no reason to redo it to the extent that they did.
My guess is that he either 1) turned into a cancer, or 2) his talent dropped off so much that they moved him to avoid longer term consequences.
The timing of this is the strange part. It could have been done sooner to get a shot at a Keenan Allen or Mike Williams.
Something really strange happened very quickly. Odd
I think this offer has been on the table for a while. It’s not great, and Beane may have been waiting for something better.
Once Diggs started throwing Allen under the bus on Twitter, the FO might have just said “f*** it, just take the deal from HOU”.
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40 minutes ago, Ya Digg? said:
So then say the facts-his playoff victories are against the Colts, Ravens, Patriots, Dolphins, and Steelers. He didn’t play one down against any of those guys
His comment is what you would see on Reddit or a YouTube comment. He’s a troll and a fan of another team.-
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27 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:
Shaw I think your explanation in the previous post is fine except for bringing Burrow into the conversation and putting him above Josh.
I think Burrow is the most overrated QB in the NFL. That's not because I don't think he's really good. It's because he's less of a Tractor and more of a Trailer than Mahomes, Josh and Lamar. Burrow has been widely talked about by many (not all, but a significant and loud enough portion of the national sports media) as the 2nd best QB in the NFL when I think he’s more clearly the 4th or 5th. Aside from his injury history and the whole "the best ability is availability" thing, Burrow had arguably the best WR corps I. The NFL the last few years along with a top 10 RB group.
I used to question Mahomes's greatness because he had 2 HOF players as his #1 weapons in Hill and Kelce. I can't question that anymore. I frankly look at Burrow and wonder why the label of greatness was given to him so quickly by so many. I can answer my own question and get to the Super Bowl appearance, but let's be honest, there's a lot of luck involved in winning in the playoffs and getting to the Super Bowl.
Fact is that Burrow and Mahomes both began their careers with at least a couple E.lite weapons in the passing game and were able to grow into being great QBs with that crutch (along with an Offensive HC of course) and are only now backsliding a little into losing those weapons and needing to be the full Tractor. Mahomes is that Dude. I'm honestly skeptical of Burrow being there considering since his National Championship year in College he's always had more than 1 Elite weapon.
And by the way, Burrow has had 2 great seasons total in the NFL. That's it. And he only reached 40 TDs in one of those seasons. And it's not like you can say he was incredible protecting the Football because he had at least 15 turnovers in both of those seasons.
Contrast those 2 with Josh Allen, who has been given the opposite trajectory. A horrible roster and no weapons in year 1. A couple pretty good weapons finally in year 2. It wasn't til year 3 he finally got an Elite weapon in Diggs, but he's never had 2 the way Burrow and Mahomes have for multiple years at the beginning of their careers. Hopefully next year is the year he finally has 2+ of them through some combination of Diggs, Kincaid, Cook, rookie WR, etc. But that would be his 7th year before he finally got what Mahomes and Burrow started their careers with.
Josh Allen is better than Burrow. He's been the ultimate Tractor carrying this team since his rookie year. If the real criticism of Allen with relattin to this Burrow vs Allen argument is #QBwinz then maybe what McDermott really needs to consider is going old school and start using Allen on D as an LB as well as our QB.
Don't give in on Mahomes yet. Wait til Kelce retires. That's when the real judgement begins.
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What do you do when you hated someone coming out of college and that person has succeeded all expectations?
You put that person under a microscope and critique everything he does.
Anybody here that has ever had haters in their life knows what’s going on.
The same people that worship Mahomes will try to find the cloud in the silver lining if/when Allen wins a Super Bowl. “Oh his team carried him, he only had 200 yards.” “He’ll never win another one.” “The refs rigged it for him.”
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Karma’s coming for that guy.
There’s not enough corporate sponsored draft day hugs out there to stop it.
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It’s not a terrible thing for the country to start knowing the Bills better. Casual fans have closer connections to Hard Knocks teams.
It would help dispel a lot of false narratives.
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Success this year is about restructuring our offensive and defensive philosophy and play calls.
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Just don’t screw everything up! And don’t stick your nose where it doesn’t belong!
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3 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:
juss gonna leave this here..
That’s the difference between winning and losing the Eagles game right there. Likely another game resulting in the #1 seed. Possibly playoff wins too.-
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Agree. I think this is the draft that decides if we become a Super Bowl winner the next 3-5 years or a perennial divisional loser.
I think Adonai Mitchell is the target.
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11 hours ago, Success said:
Ah, yes. The KC defense just laid down for Allen. Unlike what the Bills defense did for Mahomes this past January. And it was quite a bit more than just "picking on Klein." Half the Bills D was out or hurt.
I'm trying to imagine how much more spectacular Mahomes would have been than Allen if he was on the Bills for the 13 seconds game. I'm not able to muster much. Allen was unreal that game. If the Bills win that coin toss, NFL history is probably a bit different.
You've got 3 Super Bowls, and the consensus top QB in the league. Some even say GOAT. The Bills haven't won a thing. Not sure why you need the vote of confidence for Mahomes from l'il ol' me.
I'm never going to wish the Bills had Mahomes instead of Allen. Sorry 'bout that.
He needs it because Chiefs fans see with their own eyes that Allen is better. They’re insecure.-
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I also think revamping the coaching will be what sets us apart this year.
We are two years away from a SB in my opinion. But I do see us surprising the country with our record.
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We’re plugging holes right now. Why the venom in this thread?
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Would be a big time move if we pull it off.
Type of veteran to make your whole defense function at a higher level.
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We have enough talent to win 50/50 games with the Chiefs.
But to be that team that is a lock to get the #1 seed and crush the Chiefs, Ravens, and 49ers deep in the playoffs, we need more A players.
We’re 1-2 All-Pros in the right position away from being a wrecking machine/potential dynasty.
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Could just be a negotiation strategy.
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New Buscaglia mock has Bills trading up to 7 for Malik Nabers
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
This might not be a popular opinion but I think Kincaid more likely becomes a Hockenson level player rather than a Kelce level player. That's nothing to squeeze at, but it won't win you a SB on its own.
If we trade the farm to move up, it needs to be for Marvin Harrison Jr, and not for Nabers. Nabers is already California Dreaming, and we don't want to give up everything for a glum Gilmore face when he gets called up to the podium. We don't want the hot girl that's trying to pawn her less attractive friend on to us.
Justin Jefferson will be an extremely expensive red flag, Aiyuk will be a mid-tier WR1, and Tee Higgins is an elite WR2, not a WR1. If we trade for a $100M guy it should be DK Metcalf or CeeDee Lamb. If they're not available, trade up in the draft for MH Jr.
We can go for Mitchell or Legette or McConkey, but those are good starters, not superstars. And Allen needs a superstar.
For me, its Harrison or nothing this year. Then grab a Legette or a Worthy later in the draft to add speed.