klumzyfule66

Sorry I didn't show the math in terms of expected points added per try. For XP: 1pt x 95% = 0.95 points scored per try For 2PT: 2pt x 50 or 55% = 1.00 or 1.1 points scored per try (over past handful of years) Admittedly this year percentages look to be a significant outlier from past years, which (in November) suggested only ~0.7 points per try. For some reason I was unable to find NFL wide historical 2pt percentages. However, XP% was 93.0 in 2020 and has increased slowly every year, and was 95.9% in 2024 (according to statmuse)

Probability says to go for it every single time. Of course some game flow/scoring would dictate just going for one. But certainly first TD in my opinion should always be a 2pt try. Also having Josh will (should) cause buffalo's percentage to be higher than average, since he's a much bigger threat to run. The extra point is only ~95% probability Two point conversion is typically 50-55%, although apparently for this year it dropped to ~33%.

Going slightly off topic now, but median is an average. Mean, median, and mode are the three averages. I suspect the average you're thinking about is the mean.

Wait - this is something that's only done after the game is well-in-hand? I haven't been to a game in a awhile now (Patriots* playoff game), but I thought it's turned into an every game tradition. I lived in Pittsburgh for close to a decade, so I've been to a few Steelers games, and they do Renegade every 4th quarter, with highlights of hits throughout the game. Which I always thought was probably one of the coolest traditions out there, and assumed that's how the Bills did it. Of course I can't mention that without also mentioning the game a handful of years ago with Bills on the road, scoring a 40 yard td pass or something on (I think) the very next play after playing Renegade and then the year after with Pittsburgh going to Buffalo, they got trolled with Renegade being played in similar fashion at the Ralph

If the Chiefs win on Wednesday, I would use that week (week 17) to rest guys. Maybe play one quarter for those not injured at all, for those that are, just sit. Week 18 I would play everybody. As others have mentioned, I also agree that you don't want too much rest so as to not come out slow in the playoffs and need 3 quarters to get your feet back under you. Is it a bit of gambling potentially with 2/3 seed? Sure, but I'm not sure it matters whether the Chargers or Broncos are the opponent. Broncos because rookie quarterback, but Chargers because its a full 3 hour time zone trip and warm weather team. And those seedings are likely not decided till week 18 anyway. If the Bengals somehow sneak in, think I personally would prefer the 3 seed anyway, to play the Chargers. If Indy/Miami sneak in, I think those would otherwise be the preferable match ups over Den/LAC.

Didn't catch this posted. Apparently Bills fans have been donating $22 to a cat rescue group "Ten Lives Club" that he has worked with in the past on a 'Show Your Soft Side' campaign. As I'm sure many are aware, he's deleted his social media ostensibly due to a barrage of threats. https://sports.yahoo.com/fans-support-bills-tyler-bass-with-thousands-in-donations-to-cat-rescue-group-144717001.html

I always thought it had been crazy how disrespected the Ravens have been. 6.5 point dogs against SF? That might have been the craziest line I've seen this year. Only 3.5 point home favorites against dolphins? Beating the brakes off both teams, and STILL not having the shortest odds to winning the Super Bowl? Everything has been wild to me as it relates to the Ravens over the past month or two. However like others, I am also not one that would do a full week 18 rest of the stars, unless to help heal some injury that they have been playing through etc. So I may very well eat these words because Texans have been playing good football and have nothing to lose going into this game

Who gets cut when Knox is activated? And Elam (If they don't keep him on IR the rest of the year)? Kingsley Jonathan? A Guard/OT?

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2023.htm Pro football reference has an 'Expected W-L' which has Buffalo at 8.1-2.9 for this year. From their glossary: Expected W-L - this is an estimate of what the team's record "should have been," given the team's points scored and allowed. The concept goes back to baseball analyst Bill James' Pythagorean formula. Which the underlined then links to this wiki page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pythagorean_expectation?force_isolation=true

While it makes sense, and I agree with the feeling that it's been long enough, I just went back to look, because I keep thinking "Is it really though?" For those whose opinion of what follows is dependent upon my thoughts on McD: I've said (probably not here, but amongst my friend groups) after 13 seconds, that we reached peak success under McD. That he needed to be fired if we wanted a Super Bowl. Or that heads needed to roll (which of course did not happen). It was not a popular opinion. At that point (and now), no longer do I care about just making the playoffs. Now it's a Super Bowl. My thought was confirmed the very next year when we went to Arrowhead week 6 the following year. We got a TD to put us up by 3, and this time left 16 seconds (in the half). They drive down to get a FG. Again. They ended up winning the game, so maybe that issue was a footnote in the history of many people. The only thing consistent with this team in the past few years, has been the defense's inability to get a stop at the end of the game, when it's needed. Anyway, preamble aside. I went back to see how long it takes first time head coaches to get their first SB win with their first team. Only one time since John Madden in 1976, has anybody won their first SB with their first team after their 5th year. Bill Cowher in 2005. Taking a look at the years before their championship: John Madden won in his 8th season - he made 5 AFCCG in the 7 years prior. Bill Cowher 14th season - his first 6 years included 1 SB appearance, along with 2 other AFCCG. Edit to note: Madden was hired at age 32. Cowher was hired at age 34. I think that's an interesting and potentially important distinction because (in my opinion), the younger you are, generally the more likely you are to change and adjust and grow and learn. Usually its been years 2-4, but there have been 3 who've won their first in year 5: Mike Holmgren in 1996, Mike McCarthy in 2011, and John Harbaugh in 2012. That said, he's a good coach. As mentioned in comments prior, I agree that there's now a mismatch with JA. He wants the team he wants, vs fielding the team that fits the players best. He'd be better off fielding a team without a QB like Josh, and instead having the Jamal Adams and Trent Dilfers of the world.

Anyone have any tickets they are trying to sell? I'm looking for probably 5. Thanks!

Anyone know if there's a big set up for tailgating the Panthers game this Friday? Or are most people just going to be at Tavern and then walk over? I live in Wesley Heights and have young kids so I'd prefer to just be able to walk to a lot on the way in, and was hoping there might be a group somewhere.

I don't disagree with squibbing there (I was okay with it at the time, as I figured Tyreek was back there), but if teams usually get there quicker and tackle before the 25 yard line, then why doesn't every team do that every kick off?

I plan on making it so, not sure which seats I'll take, but have tickets to get rid of. 2 in section 126 row 26, 6 in 330, row 29. Face was $130 and then $170 per. Make an offer. Edit: adding rows

Does Taron have a charity of choice?

According to playoff machine, Bills can actually still get the 1 seed. It involves a series of unlikely scenarios, but still possible. 1) Chiefs lose out (Falcons, Chargers) to finish 13-3 2) Falcons win out (Chiefs, Bucs) 3) Jets win next week (Browns) 4) Bills win out (Pats, Dolphins) to finish 13-3 5) Steelers lose only one more (Bengals, Colts, Browns) to finish 13-3 6) There may be other games that need to go certain ways, but did not check that in depth It boils down to strength of victory in a 3 way tiebreak. Chance of this is basically nil, however it's nice to be able to chat about these nearly impossible chances for the Bills to get the 1 seed, instead of having substantially similar conversations 5, 10, 15 years ago for the Bills to even get into the playoffs.

I like Thunderstuck a lot, but every stadium uses that - I don't recall hearing Renegade often except when I'm in Pittsburgh (they play it more than just at the stadium, can expect it to be played if you go out for a night etc). I think having something that isn't so common might be cool. Also Lose Yourself pumps me up but not sure how good it would be for a full stadium to pump up.

Pats would have to lose vs Cinci or Miami, in addition to us winning out.

To clarify - the tickets are not on stubhub or anything. I have them on my ticketmaster account so I was thinking we could meet up tomorrow and I could transfer you the tickets and then you just give me cash. That way stubhub doesn't get $100 in fees and it's cheaper for you to pay $350 or whatever and that way a Bills fan for sure gets it.

Hey guys! I know there is a separate forum for tickets/trading, but doesn't look like anyone has posted there for a few days, so sorry I'm putting this here. Anyway, I have 2 extra tickets in Section 441 Row U if anyone is interested! A couple friends couldn't make it. Anyway looks like stubhub had seats at nearly $250 a little bit ago. Not tying to charge that much long as Bills fans are getting them. Let me know if you're interested. Go Bills!!! https://www.buffalosportspage.com/bills-rap-drought-is-over/

5 Ints in 4 separate games, yet the most we have won by was 10 points? GEESH what an awful team during the drought.

Thank you. Just caught this in another thread. I'm counting the common opponents, since that will come in to play before strength of victory after all the games are played. Good to know we will (likely) have that tiebreaker though if the Ravens lose one of the last two giving us equal common opponents record (assuming we sweep Miami).

6th seed? http://www.nfl.com/playoffs/playoff-picture says 8? Which isn't to say they're right, but how do we win the tiebreaker over Ravens and Chargers? I've admittedly only looked at potential tiebreakers over the Ravens, assuming the Chargers take the division and the Chiefs end up 8-8

Should've used a time out after the 2nd down play in my opinion (or first? I forget). They wasted the next down by hurrying to the line and tossing a fade to the end zone. Call a time out there and regroup should you actually can get a good play call. You already know you're playing 4 down ball, give yourselves 2 plays to get the first instead of going for it all.

I'm hoping to find out as well. 😒 out if there's any lot that people know will be predominately a bills lot?