The coach of the year award doesn't go to the best coach... it goes to the coach of the team that most exceeded pre-season expectations.
Daboll won it in 2022, now he's on the hot seat
Vrabel won it in 2021, fired at the end of last season
Matt Nagy won it in 2018, fired two years later
Are these coaches better than Andy Reid, who won it once in 2002 with the Eagles or McDermott who has not won? Absolutely not!!
If you are the coach of a team with playoff expectations (even if the expectations are because of your coaching), you won't win this award.
Just like the NFL MVP, coach of the year is another narrative award.