Haplo848

Dolphins @ Titans Cowboys Texans Colts @ Jets @ Jags Bye @ Redskins Patriots @ Chiefs Jets Bengals @Eagles @Patriots Giants @ Dolphins No southern teams late in the year (cause that would be unfair to the southern teams and the NFL would never give us that advantage), and only 1 home game the last month of the season. Just because the NFL loves Buffalo

I can just about guarantee you that it won't be the Bills playing the Patriots in the opening game. The NFL doesn't think there's a big enough market for the Bills, and as this is a nationally televised game to open the season, they would want to draw in fans from more nationally popular teams. The Bills, unfortunately, aren't. All of us that hail from in or around Buffalo would absolutely love to see this, but I doubt it happens. Additionally, we always seem to play the Patriots in New England late in the season, to give them a home divisional game as they're trying to make the playoffs, in the snow, etc. to try and give them the best chance of winning. That doesn't mean our away game against the Pats will be the last game of the season, but it will probably be within the last month. The Pats home games this year are against the Bills, Jets, Dolphins, Jags, Titans, Eagles, Redskins, and Chiefs. In my opinion, the obvious choices for a nationally televised game that will draw the biggest crowd would be the Jets or Eagles, with a slightly less chance for the Fins. The Jets due to the huge market in NYC, the whole "Revis left NE for NY" storyline, and the NYC/Boston rivalry. The Eagles because they're one of the more nationally known/liked teams in the league (at least I would guess), and with Chip's demolition of the team, people are going to want to know just how badly he blew it up. There's all the talk of him remaking the team in his image to win, but lets face it, you can't win without talent, and he shipped a hell of a lot of it. The Dolphins I throw in there to draw people from a different part of the country than just the northeast, its a divisional game, and they can highlight the fact that the Dolphins have Suh now, and try to pump up the whole "ascending face of an NFL franchise" in Tannehill vs "the heroic savior of a franchise on the descent" in Brady storyline. TL:DR - My money's on the Jets or Eagles.

+1

Does any one else see this as Rivers saying that he would retire rather than play anywhere other than San Diego?

No, I believe he's correct. Wikipedia says "If a player signs a contract after receiving the transition tag, his original team can not use the tag again on any player until the contract has expired. The exception is if the player first signs a transition offer sheet..." So if Mack signed the transition offer, then got signed to a long term deal, they could use the tag again. If he had been offered by another team, than the Browns matched that deal, without ever signing the transition offer, then they couldn't use the transition tag again until that player plays out his contract.

That made me happy

Can we just sign him already? I'm getting anxiety just sitting here waiting to hear ANYTHING about Clay and Harvin

Are they going to grape him in the mouth? For decades and decades and decades?

Let's get this out of the way, so that people don't have to keep saying it: He is obviously a scum bag. He assaulted his girlfriend and threatened to kill her. He is a horrible person. Because of how good he is, he WILL get a new contract on some team. NFL.com has him rated as one of the top 5 free agents despite his history. The NFL is a business, and because of that, people who are skilled enough get all the chances they need. Just look at T.O., who was continually described as a locker room cancer, but continually got new contracts until he got too old to play. Look at A.P., who assaulted his own kid, but would apparently be welcomed back to the VIkings with open arms. All that said, how would you feel if the Bills signed him to a one year deal? Having him play opposite Hughes in a 3-4, with Hughes, Dareus, Williams, Williams, and Hardy all having the potential to rush the QB on any given down would give the Bills a huge edge on defense. However, is that worth all the baggage and horror that would bring? I'm not advocating for either side. I'm simply asking, with 12 hours to go until free agency officially begins, how all of you would feel about the Bills signing Hardy to a one year deal.

That's what I've been hearing, but unless Manning takes a pay cut, it doesn't seem like they'll be able to bring him back. The Raiders and Jags keep getting listed as possible landing places for him, but it's possible that he might decide he wants to go somewhere that will get more than 3 wins next year and still have his pay day

So it looks like Julius Thomas is on the outs with Denver. Does anyone think there's a reasonable chance that we sign him? Would we have the cap room to do it? I for one would love the move, as we need a play making TE, but would he price himself out of our range?

Anyone know if Dareus is coming back in? What did he actually do?

And to be perfectly honest, the block is close enough to when the ball gets there that the ref could have thought it was a block after the ball arrived (which is not a penalty). I don't know if that play was called or not, and it should have been, but with how close together they are at full speed, its possible the refs just thought it was too close to call if it wasn't called.

Thre is a difference between a legal and an illegal pick. Here's an illustration of it: If a receiver runs down field and blocks a receiver, that is an illegal pick, and the receiver will get flagged for illegal contact or pass interference. If a receiver runs down field and his route takes him into the path of a defender, then the defender has to go around him. That is a completely legal play. If you have the second scenario, and instead of going around the receiver, the defender tries to go through him instead of around him, that's defensive pass interference. If the receiver does not try to block the DB, the receiver should never be flagged on that type of play (I say SHOULD instead of WILL because we all remember the Sammy Watkins offensive PI call against the Patriots* where Sammy tries to run his route, gets run into by Woods' defender, gets jacked up, and an obviously wrong offensive PI call was made against him). Another example is any time you see two receivers run crossing routes coming from opposite sides of the field. You have a smaller guy run the inside route, the bigger guy run the route about 6 inches further down the field. If the smaller guy's defender is downfield at all, he has to go around the bigger guy (allowing the smaller guy to get open) or he can run into the bigger guy and draw a defensive PI call. Those are his options. TL:DR - not all pick plays are illegal. In fact, most aren't, and offensive coordinators make use of them all the time.

You're an idiot. Sammy was just running his route and never even saw the ball was in the air. He made no effort to run into Talib, and it was Talib that ran into him. Watch it again, you'll see. If anything gets called, that's defensive pass interference, but for once in that game the refs actually made the right call. Incidental contact, like when feet get tangled up. No call.

Is McKelvin injured? It looked like he went down hard when he whiffed on that run in the first half, and I haven't seen him since. I'm at a bar watching the game, so I don't get sound too well

Two games ago: Bills beat Dolphins 19-0. One game ago: Bills beat Dolphins 29-10. My prediction: Bills win 39-20

Why does the Steelers vs Jets game get so much coverage? That's a HORRIBLE game. Biggest blow out all year? Eh, maybe I'm just upset because I've been about 2 counties away from getting Bills games at home all year, yet have not had a single one so far this season.

Another bad no call: no PI on the throw to Watkins by the goal line. Vikings player grabbed Watkins by the arms and dragged him with him while Watkins was trying to catch

...why not "Unleash the Dragon"? Why not go with Sexy Rexy? He's a free agent. In the post game, Mike Williams, while commenting on his 80 yard TD, said “Ran right by him. The play before … I ran right by him then, too..." Rex Grossman can throw the deep ball all day. Warning: language, NSFW http://kissingsuzykolber.uproxx.com/2006/11/f-k-it-im-throwing-it-downfield.html

If you're gonna post the "factory of sadness" video, you can't forget this one, too! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oZzgAjjuqZM

Fred Jackson. I'm really hoping I'm wrong, but I'm predicting EJ loses confidence early, stops trying to throw it downfield, and checks down far too often, making the RBs the players with the most catches. Freddy edges Spiller by being the better all-around player.

I'd actually think that doing something along the lines of the english soccer leagues would be a really good idea. Add 8 football teams, then you have two interconnected leagues of 20 teams each. At the end of the year, the three worst teams in the upper tier league get demoted to the lower league, who are replaced by the three best teams from the lower league. That way the better teams are all going against each other and the league stays competitive without crappy blow out games that people knew who was the victor before the game was even played, like the Broncos vs Jaguars game last year, or something equally ridiculous. Even the teams at the bottom of the league have a reason to keep fighting deep into the season so that they don't get demoted.

I went through that article from fivethirtyeight.com you gave and saw the link about pythagorean wins, and was curious so I clicked on that (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=337). In there, it lists a good way to predict wins for the next year, namely "Year N+1 wins =~ 3.93 + .11*(Year N wins) + .34*(Year N Pythag wins) + .06*(Year N AdjPythag wins)" where Pythagorean wins = PF^2.37 / (PF^2.37 + FA^2.37) and Adjusted Pythagorean wins are the average of the calculated pythagorean wins for each game (so that blow outs aren't counted too heavily). Doing all the math, I came out with a predicted 7.29 wins for the coming year, which is essentially what the media is predicting for us, also

My groups are somewhat similar, but here's how I'd do it (teams within groups in no particular order: Top Shelf Teams: San Francisco Seattle Denver New England New Orleans Very Good Teams: Green Bay Chicago Arizona On the Bubble: St. Louis Buffalo Philly Baltimore Indy San Diego Teams Still Good but on the Decline: Carolina Kansas City Cincinnati Average Teams: Detroit Tampa Bay Cleveland New York Jets Miami Pittsburgh 6-10 Teams: New York Giants Washington Dallas Atlanta Bottom of the Barrel: Tennessee Jacksonville Oakland Houston Minnesota