Hplarrm

In part through jumping out to an early lead and in part due to good play in the trenches the Bills effectively shut down the #1 2010 team in NFL rushing. Given that our D was the worst in run D last year this says a lot. \ Nevertheless, next week we face the 2010 #2 rushing team. It remains the same in the NFL. You gotta prove it every week.

You are absolutely correct in your focus like a laser beam on Oakland. After we shellacked the Chiefs yesterday, my mind went to the Oakland match-up and made an initial assessment of a OAK being a team which has been historically bad in the recent past which will need to fly across country after yheir last game (which turns out to be a Monday nighter so thwir recovery/reorientaton week is even shorter). However, though my mind went to this analysis, my heart quickly started thinking we might face NE in week 3 at 2-0 at home. Could we actually end the 15 game drought and end up a game aheaad of NR...... just shut up man. Actually, I am just a fan so its fine for me to dream about 16-0 (nay 19-0) seasons. In the real fake world, I just hope that Gailey is successful in getting this young team to focus on one game at a time. The players looking ahead to being 3-0 is the best way to end up 1-2.

I was veru imptrssed with the Bills today. This team strikes me as the real deal. They will not score over 40 probably ever again on the road, However, even if they were the recipient of a lot of things going our way, to some extent I think we made our own luck great scheming amd superior play. I think this win eas also somewhat inflated by the Cheifs being so hurt and bad as players. However, this win was darn impressive. Even Gailet seened pleasantly surprised.

I know I know this ain't gonna happen but it sure is fun to say!

Quite easily actually. I do not think anyone sees Coleman as anything but a journeyman LB, but the Bills FO sees Kelsay as a starter quality player at LB and even a starter quality player at DE. I think the Bills overvalue the utility of Kelsay as a starter, but they are absolutely correct in judging Coleman to be back-up qualityon his good days. My major complaint about Kelsay is not that he sucks so badly but that he is no where as good and consistent as the amount of salary cap he is allocated by the Bills. I would feel very good about having Kelsay and pressing him into service as situations dictated as a DE with both hands on the ground who is stout against the run and through his constant motor sometimes gets a sack, but I think I could get that level of production from a far smaller cap hit. Coleman is a nice guy and hard worker, but I would feel bad anytime we were forced to start him. Kelsay ain't worth the money we pay him (he must remind Ralph of the son he always wanted or have pictures of Bettman in compromising positions) but there is little question that he is a far more valuable player than Coleman.

To me the issue is how do you get a franchise QB but then given the fact that there is about a 75% chance you are not going to get a franchise QB how do you win without one. Is Fitzy a franchise QB? Pretty doubtful. Who is your #2 that instead you envision as your franchise QB? If you hear any sound it likely is crickets. The key question for this team is NOT who is the #2 who will likely be our franchise QB when Fitzy gets hurts or fails. How can you possibly assign much of a probability to this working out? The real questions are that given the far greater likelihood that we are going to have a pedestrian QB (I like Fitzy but am under no illusions that he ever credibly will be called a franchise QB) is that we figure out a way to make the playoffs with a pedestrian QB or even with a bad one like Thigpen. I think the Bills plan is to improve the more easily improvable parts of the team (they have reinforced the DL big time with the anchor of Williams, the maturation of several highly drafted youngsters (Troop and Carrington), a couple of journeymen whose games MIGHT step up with quality play around them, and most of all drafting one of the most talented rookie DL guys in Dareus, Further, they are pursuing a high risk but potentially high risk LB strategy dealing with Merriman injury, acqusition of a few mid-level FAs and it is to be hoped development of youngsters like Batten. Overlay a potentially good DB crew reinforced with the draft and MAYBE this crew competes for the playoffs. The back-up QB issue is best solved by not having to use him besides mop up and 3 starts max. I am all eyes if you can explain to me how you are going to make your strategy work.

This strikes me as odd since in general, the best team strategy regarding the QB position is not to pursue the incredibly unlikely possibility that your back-up QB is a long-term option to start (afterall, its tough enough to get a 1st string QB who is an adequate long-term option to start) but instead try to make sure your 1st string QB does not get knocked out for more than a game or two. The Bills seem far more likely to me to get 12-16 at least adequate starts out of Fitzy running a Gailey offense which over the years he has shown can be productive with a so-so QB, than to get one's panties all up in a wad because your back-up QB is not a capable long-term option as a starter. In fact, the best back-up QB the Bills ever had was Frank Reich whom no one mistook as a long-term option as a starting QB (though a couple of teams did try this and he failed miserably). The goal for the Bills to reach at #2 QB is to get a guy who is capable for stepping in and holding the line on the job for 3 games max and the hope is actually that Fitzy can at least pull off what he did last year that he was forced by injury to sit only one game (he sat a few by choice as the Bills played out the ill-fated Edwards experiment. It strikes me that the more intelligent strategy for how we handle the back-up QB are: 1. Improve the OL so it is at least adequate which it is not right now. We need a solid RT starter, a solid LG starter, and most important need to build chemistry of this group as a unit. We MIGHT be able to do this, but its going to be tough because we did not spend the money necessary to get the personnel (not throwing cap room money which we have at Clady is an example) more likely to succeed at this task. It could happen but it is going to be tough. 2. Use the TE position as a max protect scheme quite a bit. This move is regrettable since I think our O is most productive with three WRs and the TE sitting IF the rest of the OL is adequate. However, the OL starters may be weak enough that Gailey is unable to compensate with a mobile QB making quick decisions alone and we need to do more max protect to survive. 3. Amp up the blitz protection of the RBs. If the opponent has good players and can attack, then we made need the last ditch effort of the RB also playing a max protect role on blitz pick-up. i think Jackson can do this but when he does we lost an offensive weapon. I feel comfortable with Spiller as an exciting runner but lack confidence in his blitz pick-up that I like him more as a third WR than starting RB, but this takes us right back to the failings of the OL. Its a puzzle but actually has a significantly larger (though still small) chance of success with the existing starters doing well and particularly the QB remaining healthy than instead focusing attention on getting a great bench warming clipboard carrying #2 QB. I simply do not see your concern being justified by how and who you would get to make this work.

Because Miami is a great example of this team with Gailey as OC and having the once cut Fiedler as the junk they had at QB they still made the playoffs, As was demonstrated by the OT win last weekend, the fact is that Gailey has demonstrated that his teams can win with junk at QB.

Does Brown have any practice squad eligibility left? If not he gets cut.

I think folks reactions say a lot more about their unreasonable expectations than it does about Thigpen's ability to play role he is going to be called upon to play for the Bills. If things work as Gailey plans and hopes then we will only see Thiggy walking the sideline or potentially in a mop-up role. His past history and even his less than desirable play on Saturday indicates he is quite capable of playing that role. In fact, his performance on Sat. is likely just what the Bills needed as the most important thing he can do for this team is NOT to create a QB controversy which Jerry Sullivan and WGR seem to live for as it helps them fill column inches and sell air time for commercials, but really is mindless drivel that distracts the team for the most part. Thigpen most needs to help the Bills not give up hope when Ftizy goes down which is quite possible with this OL or has a bad game which is a virtual certainty in this game. I feel good that he was able to hang in there and the team ultimately prevailed in this meaningless game. Playing the Frank Reich role of being a credible replacement for 3 games max is about as much as one should reasonably hope for. His past history as an NFL starter and history of some success in a Gailey system means a lot more to me than his pre-season disaster, In fact, if only because it does not encourage Sully to blather on about bring in Thigpen I am not displeased with his sorry but ultimately winning performance.

Rather than worrying primarily about the character shown by the players, I think the Bills FO and owner need to get a character and football judgment transplant themselves. The players are generally steroid infused autonomatons who have the habit of told when to sleep, what to do, and where to go by their coaches and universities. Ultimately, individuals are individuals but to a great degree character is a reflection of leadership. The Bills ownership and FO leadership have consistently reflected an approach to the game which judges it more as a business than an exercise in sportsmanship. While there is the occaisional legend in their own mind Randy Moss who will be Randy in any situation, the character shown by the players is in many ways a reflection of the tone set by the owners and the FO. Folks are falling into a false contrast that there is some sort of zero sum equation with character on one side and performance on the other. A lot of this I attribute to the way the initial post asks the question as though there is some direct correlation as though a central (or even significant) part of the Bills problem was passing on talented players because they had previous problems. I simply see no consistent evidence that this is the case. The character assessment problem I do see the Bills having in cases such as the gifts of cash given to players such as Dockery or Langston Walker who seemed to be paid far above what they should have commanded on the market is that these players seem to promote a view which sees their Bills membership in the context of what is in it for them rather than going out of their way to achieve good for the team. I would not necessarily fault Dockery or Walker as showing little character for signing the best contract they could get. Where I think the character issue comes in is that from the outward appearance they give they seem to be encouraging folks like Jason Peters to look out for themselves when it came to contract negotiation time rather than taking less money ostensibly for the team. However, even in this case, my sense is that the problem here is less about the character of the team player leadership and more is about the bad professional FO judgment of the Bills and lack of setting a sportsmanlike self-sacrificing tone by the FO and owner. The Bills have a clear rep and deservedly so of the ownership treating the Bills more like a business and only secondarily as an exercise in doing well at the sport. When push comes to shove and the Bills owners seem to have to make a decision between risking the business structure with the possibility of winning on the field or instead pinching pennies here or there, the Bills ownership and FO seem to generally come down on the side of saving a nickel. In cases like Pat Williams it seems like the Bills only needed to go a little further in putting up some cash and refused to do so and lost a player who only now with the emergence of Williams and drafting of Dareus do they seem to be addressing. Likewise, the Bills did a great job of finding a diamond in the rough of signing Peters as a UDFA, but then simply made a bad football decision in overpaying Dockery and Walker. The hardline the Bills seemed to take with their best player on the OL (which even those who choose to hate him have to admit was the case given the other Bills OL players( too me showed at least poor football judgment by the FO is not a lack of character on the owners part.

Actually it is understanding that it is corporate dollars which drive this process is exactly the reason the Bills will probably STAY in Buffalo. The massive share of the corporate dollars to be made from the Bills does not come from the huge but still relatively smaller amount of dollars which come from corporate boxes sold to local businesses. The big bucks by far comes from the corporations which own the TV networks. This is where the dollars come from and this is actually the most important customer base for making money for the NFL. How will the NFL make more money? By getting more eyeballs to watch the game in order to make it even more valuable for the NFL to collect dollars from the TV networks and to attract even more networks to pay the NFL. It seems quite obvious if one gives it any thought that the next immediate frontier for the NFL which will deliver more $ to the the NFL owners is to find a way to attract more eyeball in Mexico, Toronto, Europe, Japan and the big prize China. Buffalo has its highest and best value not in how many fannies are put into seats but by its direct connection to NFL history as one of the original AFL teams. What the NFL is all about is entertainment and telling a grand story. More money is to be made by selling being a part of this grand story to Mexico City and the manufacturers who lust to sell beer and cars to the growing Mexico wealthy and the middle class. Is it good salesmanship to have the most recent chapter of the story be one of how the NFL abandoned one of its citys, abandoned one with rabid fans, and provides tons of visuals of people with their hopes and dreams crushed. The Bills remaining in Buffalo with our rabid plucky fans and Elvis showing up at every game on TV with beautiful pictures of Niagara Falls makes for a great positive story to sell to new TV networks in other countries. The Bill abandoning Buffalo is simply bad story-telling to what is the real profit center. Even a move of the Bills to Toronto presents a false economic choice. The question confronting the NFL owners is not simply one of whether Toronto or Buffalo generates more profits. The clear question to be answered is whether it is possible to have teams in BOTH Buffalo and Toronto which generate profits. The Sabres/Maple Leaf example says yes having two teams in the same major sport in both towns is certainly doable under the right circumstances. Yes, they are different businesses in terms of the relative number of tickets to sale and also in terms of the historic commitment to hockey in Toronto. Yet, though they are different it looks to me like the general case that as long as it is possible for the NFL to do well in Toronto that it is possible for the league to do well in both Toronto and in Buffalo. Buffalo takes advantage of a Southern Ontario market which is discrete from the Greater Toronto Area (or GTA as it is officially known). The Toronto market is in fact so large in and of itself it bears more resemblance to NYC which can maintain 2 teams or at worse Chicago where the US second city maintains a team with GB not being much further away than Toronto is from Buffalo. Even further in terms of economics, to the extent one considers the smaller but still substantial cash stream of individual Bills profits, to walk away from Buffalo is to walk away from 45,000+ season tickets sold, tons of relationships already built for selling advertising and other non-transferable already existing cash streams. Recreating them can be done in a new town, but there will be a cost for replicating this which provides a strong market advantage to simply staying here. The IG money says the Bills stay.

Why now? 1. The Bills appear at least a year away from making the playoffs and not unlikely two. A 30 year old in the NFL is already on borrowed time so if there is any desire to make the playoffs in a players' career after playing totally in our 0 for a decade plus streak then getting out of Dodge would seem prudent. 2. Last year was one of your least productive in recent memory 3. The other WR had a banner year and seems to have some chemistry with the definite QB you do not have 4. Economically it is incredibly unlikely that you are going to see a significant raise in your next contract (even if you perform incredibly well. The odds are certainly higher for you financially to go to a contender that will feature you and has no liability for the bonus the Bills already paid you. Economically. your chances are not only better for having a banner year in your 30 year old body elsewhere, but also if you do, the Ravens are far more likely to reward you with a new contract since they are not in for the money you already received. 5. Two years ago there was even more hope for you as potentially gaining the Pro Bowl than there is remotely to the chances if you remain a Bill. The answer? As Getty Paul would say.. Take Off

Interesting reaction in that I figured I was being a moderate by saying the Pats acknowledged serious transgression can in fact be forgiven, just not yet. Not surprisingly on a Bills bulletin board the voting right now is actually running the other way that the crime can never be forgiven. My guess is that while part of this is caused by the decade plus of being losers on the Bills part, another chunk of this caused by the seeming lack of acknowledgement of the seriousness of this transgression by SOME Pats fans. Perhaps I am wrong and this sin will never be forgiven since clearly there are folks such as you who see the Pats as some NFL gold standard. While their crime certainly does not totally invalidate their achievements for this fan, the worse thing I think Belicheat did with the fairly obvious illegal filming of opposition signals was that he did not have to do it because the Pats could beat many teams (including many of the hapless Bills squads of the past decade+) without stooping to cheat. My guess is that the Pats are not likely to be relieved of an asterisks on their winning ways by both biased fans like us Bills lovers and even objective fans because some Pats fans fail to acknowledge that the main victims of the Belicheat led scandal was in fact Pats rooters. Gold standard? Perhaps fools gold. I think any reasonable person would be far more likely to see the GB model as one to follow (there is a lot to be said for fan ownership over Kraft ownership) or the Steelers (a better recent record of success compared to the Pats in the past decade or easily the last few years. Ironically it is attitudes like the one expressed by some Pats partisans despite reality that makes me feel better about rooting for stupid consistently losing teams like the Bills than winners (long and longer ago) like the Pats.

I know this is old news, but it is pre-season so old news is fair game in my book. In addition, my sense is that cheating to the degree that the league plopped down a $500K fine and the Pats simply bent over and took their poison admitting guilt means this was serious. I decided to rehash this old story in part because I think outright and clearly illegal cheating is so bad its important to resurrect the issue from time to time. As a typical American forgiving sort, I actually am not going to vote that this sin can never be forgiven and instead vote #3 that there is a statute of limitations on this. However, I do not think we are there yet, Perhaps after Belicheat is gone or maybe after the Brady era the team will be removed far enough away from the scandal that all should be forgiven. However, even though the team paid a chunk of penance when they blew the perfect season in the SB, my guess is that if the Pats were to get to the SB again this year or under BB there will still be significant discussion about the place of BB and/or this team in history. So I vote the crime can be forgiven but not yet.

If it comes down to a choice between lying to me (and getting even a small chance at fooling opponents or telling me the truth, I say lie to me. Its much more important to me that we win rather than the team is honest to opponents simply because they are being honest with me.

1. The potential problems our starting DL offers opponents (the addition of Dareus to Williams and potential improvement from Carrington and Troup has me looking for more 4-3 than 3-4- given the LB issues would a 5-2 work?) 2. Spiller catching a pass when lined up wide as a WR (I think keys are going to be to get him more touches and to get him the ball in space- My thoughts for a new #2 WR go Parrish, Brad Smith and also Spiller if he can learn the precise route running and seal blocking required of a #2 WR. 3. We will have to settle on specific choices but we have a ton of options for ST skill position players.

Neither Florence's lack of effort on this tackle nor the FOs seeming lack of success in getting more than a 4th for Evans both strike me as less success or effort than we fans deserve. Florence's miscue is difficult to forgive but I must admit I am not surprised given the seeming level of effort given by the front office.

I was also incredibly impressed by the INT, this tip drill maneuver showed great football instincts and a pro nose for the ball and even more rare the athletic ability to pull all this off. Yet, in addition he appeared from the limited view if the play given by the TV screen to be coming off of getting burned on the two previous plays. He clearly does see, to merit his high pick but I expect he will need to see much of a full season where his job is to contribute on ST and he helps the team most by watching and learning during regular game play, I agree McKelvin has made some very bad plays last year but to me these are mostly seen on ST and he held his own quite well in his DB times. Excited by Williams? Yep. Many expectations of him to contribute to the Bills this year? Nope

I completely trust the mods to move this if they choose to some other location as there are a few threads about the loss of Evans out there. However, I throw this out there and think it might stand on its own because this thread is less about dealing with the Evans for a 4th downgrade but instead about using 1st round pick Spiller positively. Spiller has been disappointing for many Bills fans though from my perspective this says more about the over-expectations of Bills fans about the value of a #1 choice. Yes, the #1 has to and should be and often is a real contributor to the team over his career. However, along with this truth is the statistical truth that really only about half of the 1st round choices are even first on the team's depth chart at their position after a rookie year. Further, while yes there is a strong bias to top 10 choices proving to be 1st year starters, this is true not simply because of the obvious talent which got them a top 10 pick but because the existing starters on that team are simply bad. Spiller has not produced like we wanted and mostly people falsely expect because he is not a starter immediately. However, this says more to me about Fred Jackson being a quality RB than it does about Spiller not. Spiller in fact in a few brief highlight reel touches has shown why Gailey and the Bills were so excited about him. However, my sense is that though I do not predict this because it is a leftfield idea, might hope is that we in fact see Spiller get more touches this year because it is in fact he who ends up commanding the #2 WR slot! I do not predict this as though signs point to Spiller being a fair to good route runner as an RB, the duties and responsibilities of a #2 WR are different and diverse. Spiller would need to show not only even more consistent receiving abilities, but would need to be able to show consistent disciplined route running not only as a pass catcher but as a decoy. As a #2 Spiller would need to show blocking ability on running plays toward his side. However, my sense is that Gailey is so effusive about Parrish, it is he rather than unproven newbies like Nelson or Easley who will get the first shot at being #2. Yet, depending upon how he performs in practice at the other disciplines needed from a productive #2 it would not surprise me to see Spiller as the plan B #2 behind Parrish. Its pre-season so we will see. However, after solving our OL problems, getting Spiller more touches is high on the list for offensive improvements on the Bills

Unfortunately for us fans it really is impossible to tell until we have more of a sense of what the offensive personality is and also what a number of the young players can do with a regular gig. Right now based on talent we likely will run a system which makes greater use of Roscoe as the #2. Gailey has expressed a ton of confidence in him and though traditionally he has been the #3 WR in the slot, my GUESS is that the first cut at things are going to see him elevated to the full time starter role. The problem is though by my fan judgment, he situation is: 2010 # 1 WR- Evans is a good player with special speed talent. However, very good is not good enough for the perenial Pro Bowl talent you want at #1. Evans was good but he could be shut down with an over and under dt. He simply did not command the ball so he was always good but not great. What many Bills partisans saw as a hole because they did not like Evans is simply a bigger hole with a 4th rounder in his place. 10- #2 Johnson proved to be an outstanding #2, but not so fast simply assuming or even hoping he can step up to #1. Part of the reason he did well at #2 is that yes Evans was not a great #1 because he could be shut down but the cost to shut him down was the dt which allowed Johnson to run wild. Yes Johnson was a GREAT #2, but it simply remains to be seen whether he proves to be even an adequate #1 working without having Evans around to demand DC attention to his speed threat. Ironically, Evans was not the #1 we wanted for the Bills but this is true because he could be shut down but only at the cost for the opposing DC of letting Stevie run wild. 10- #3 is perhaps the most relevant question for this move as my initial guess is that we will see Parrish be called upon to meet Gailey's belief in him and become a solid #2. This fan likes Roscoe a lot. To me he a proven and demonstrated open field running threat. This is flat out demonstrated and can be seen in his return work! He also has demonstrated to me a real fearlessness in that he has been willing to play the slot and risk the hits which come from working in across the middle of the field. All this being said as a testimonial to Parrish' legs and his heart, unfortunately it is simply this fearlessness which has added up to a record of injury which makes it unlikely to me he will survive a whole season as your primary slot guy. On irony for me is that I think one reason that Parrish is going to be the go-to guy for us as the new #2 is that he actually will have a smaller injury risk on the outside as a #2 than as a slot guy at #3. I do not think though he will survive starting 16 as the #2 or that even if he does he will not be as productive as Johnson was. 10- #4- The great news is that there are a host of players led by David Nelson who had pretty good years in the reserve and then reserve again position of #4 WR for the Bills. Not only will D Nelson, Jones and Roosevelt get their fair shot at the #3 but the best talent among them might be Easley and his too oft injured self. Overall, my direct answer to this question is that I think Parrish will be the #2 on the depth chart and will not only earn but deserve this role (until he likely gets hurt). The irony MAY be that without the threat which actually can be met which makes Evans less than a classic #1 in WR production, we might end up seeing a downgrade in the position from Johnson moving to #1, a downgrade in #2 WR output from losing Johnson running wild with the threat weakened D, a downgrade at #3 as Parrish steps up to #2 and it is unclear which of the many possibilities the Bills have at WR will step up to produce at #3. BBBlllaaahhh

The playing for next year (or making moves to win in a few years) has worked as planned for over a decade. I am pretty confident that it will succeed in producing the same result next year and here on out.

The difference for Parrish without Evans is one of individual skill match-ups rather than dts. In a game, the opponents fastest DB almost always was on the speedy Evans and his demonstrated downfield catch production. Parrish got to face the second fasted opponent at worse. Now, the opposing DC has the option of putting his fastest DB against the slot guy as admit it or not Stevie Johnson is a great route runner and even a good pass catcher (when he concentrates as he seemed not to on a bad endzone drop last year) but his speed does not scare anyone. A big Parrish talent is his speed and both he and Johnson likely will suffer with a teammate who again whether folks want to admit it or not has less real world production than Evans. It is pretty sad to see the Bills disarming for this year and merely getting a bag of second day luck in the 4th round at best.

Actually this is not always true so automated responses are not appropriate. There have been several examples such as Dockery, Walker and Kelsay (twice I think) where the Bills have agreed to contracts which: 1. Were not cheap by any measure, 2. Did not result in any production by the player which observers think is justified 3. Seemed to be in the minds of many objective observers seemed to be more than the market demanded to sign these players. I think it is a much bigger problem for the Bills not that Mr. Ralph is cheap, but that he and the underlings he bears the ultimate responsibility for hiring are just not very good at owning and operating an NFL team. Yes, even a totally broken clock is right twice a day and even a blind squirrel sometimes finds a nut. Mr. Ralph is a great businessman who unfortunately is not a very good sportsman. He deserves undying (at least until he is dead then he will be measured by if he leaves the team to the control of the region that loves it), admiration for the great business decision he made to buy and hold the property. He deserves and should also get great credit for hiring Polian and signing the checks which brought Marv, Jimbo, Thurman and a growing host of HoF worthy players to the team. However, deserved along with this praise should be an acknowledgement of the series of toxic relationships he built with Polian, Butler, Wade, Mularkey, TD, etc. The downfall of the Bills to me is directly traceable to Mr. Ralph making a handshake deal with Jimbo which only he Mr. Ralph could make to reward Jimbo in his next FA deal. Even this outside fan could see in the years immediately before he was done that Jimbo though great and having had a legit HoF career IMHO was done. This was the beginning of mistakes which either were clearly directed by Mr. Ralph or if not he should have known.

The grand irony here is that I find as much fault with Sully's alleged analysis and poor (in my humble opinion) writing style that ironically I thought this was one of his better pieces. I guess mostly this is because the best of Sully is not that high of a standard.