jwhit34

I just looked at the cap page and the primary takeaway is that the Bills/Beane have done a masterful job so far structuring contracts. Outside of the cornerstones they have identified (White, Dawkins, Diggs and soon Allen and Edmunds), they can get out of almost any contract without a huge dead cap hit. Three prime examples: Jefferson, Butler and John Brown. All would have about a $1 million dead cap hit but if they want to move on from any they can save $7-9 million each. Morse would be a $5 million dead cap hit but they would still save $5 million. Bottom line is they have a good track record now and I think they will figure out how to keep everyone they want to keep.

This is an excellent synopsis. Here are my calculations, presuming that the league bumps the cap up to around $200 million, leaving them $80 million over: Brees retiring saves about $13.5 million Releasing Kwon Alexander saves $13.4 million Releasing Sanders saves $6.5 million Taysom Hill is prime candidate for restructure, release would save $5 million, restructure potentially more, call it $7 million The above 4 saves $40.5 million, halfway there That's where it gets tough: Oline possibilities: Ramczyk ($11m), Armstead ($5.6m), Nick Easton ($6m) Janoris Jenkins cut would save $7m, restructure less, M. Brown cut would save $5m Probably can find 4-5 more that will save an average of $2m each If you notice there are a lot of players who if released their dead cap is close to equal or even more than the cap hit if on the roster. The years of restructure and going for it while they have had Brees is really coming back to bite them now. While they have been able to restructure their way out of it in the past I think they will have to make far tougher decisions this offseason and they could be pretty bad in 2021. Problem is they have 46 under contract so if they release 8-10 from above now they have 36-38 players so at least 15 roster spots to fill. They need money for their draft picks and to fill the rest of the roster spots, so they would probably need at least $20 million. They will have to get very creative.

It is interesting to hear many talk about how great the BIlls' weapons are in the pass game. It's amazing that it is a collection of WRs that in some way no one else wanted: Stefon Diggs: A 5th round pick, granted the Bills gave up a first round pick plus others (which may or may not amount to anything) but at some level Minnesota decided they didn't need him anymore and wasn't part of their future so they traded him. John Brown: Originally a low 3rd rounder, both Arizona and Baltimore didn't see the need to retain him (and it wasn't like there was a logjam at WR in Baltimore). Cole Beasley: Undrafted FA, he had a very good career at Dallas and they had a lot of WRs, but still it wasn't like he was a super hot free agent two years ago Gabriel Davis: 4th rounder Isaiah McKenzie: 5th rounder, cut by Denver, waiver claim Credit the talent evaluators for seeing something in each of them, the coaches for figuring out how to use their talents and out how to make them mesh, and mostly the players themselves for taking full advantage of their opportunity in Buffalo (and that of course includes Josh Allen). It's pretty neat.

Here are the QB stat lines for the Bills 2 playoff games: BIlls vs. Colts Comp Att Comp % Yds Yds/Att TD Int Rush Yds TD QBR Allen 26 35 74% 324 9.3 3 0 11 54 1 85.0 Rivers 27 46 59% 309 6.7 2 0 1 -1 0 92.1 Bills vs. Ravens Allen 23 37 62% 206 5.6 1 0 7 3 0 51.0 Jackson 14 24 58% 162 6.8 0 1 9 34 0 55.6 Not only are Allen's stats better in both games, does anyone watching either game, based solely on what they saw, conclude Rivers and/or Jackson outplayed Allen? No way. In the Colts game, Allen is superior in every statistical category and vs. the Ravens the only stat that Jackson's better is yards per attempt (and more rushing yards). It is really hard to take QBR seriously with ratings like this.

Interesting that the openings are now down to 4: Houston Detroit LA Chargers Philadelphia Houston and Detroit have been open for the longest, they must be waiting for someone still in the playoffs which would most likely mean Bieniemy, Leftwich or Daboll. It is interesting that there is now talk that Chargers will go with a defensive coach since they have gone with offense guys since 2006. It only takes one, but the chance Daboll gets one of the jobs is shrinking fast.

Also on the 50+ kicks, he was 4-6 but one was the 61 yarder, so really he's 4-5 from 50+ which puts him just slightly higher than the survivor rookies' 77%. When you have a relatively small sample size, which is the case with the > 50 yarders (Bass had 6, average survivor kickers 3.84) 1 data point skews the percentages. Bottom line: Bass is good. One of the family favorite movies is Remember the Titans so of course we refer to the Bills kicker as Ronnie Bass (backup QB - Sunshine).

Injured this year but 2019 he had over 1,000 yards from scrimmage (650 run, 410 pass). If all are healthy, my ranking is: 1. Freeman 2. Yeldon 3. Williams 2021 season? Give Williams a shot to be in the mix.

Interested to know what everyone thinks, right now I am picking none. The only job he seems to be one of the top candidates for is the LA Chargers and I don't think he's going to get that one either. My current guesses: Atlanta - Raheem Morris Detroit - Robert Saleh Jacksonville - Bryon Leftwich or Urban Meyer Houston - Eric Bieniemy NY Jets - Doug Pederson Philadelphia - Probably go with a defensive coach, either Eberflus or maybe Marvin Lewis, but they are a wild card Chargers - If Meyer gets Jacksonville, Leftwich, if not Arthur Smith or Daboll but I'm leaning Smith

The thing that would make a deep playoff run sweeter for many on TBD: Christian Wade and Duke Williams active vs. the Ravens. I'm surprised people didn't want them to bring in Da'Rick Rogers last week for Colts intel...even though it's been a few years. I still don't see it with either of them.

So here's all the open HC jobs: Detroit Atlanta Philadelphia Jacksonville NY Jets LA Chargers Houston Here are the hottest coaching names (in no order): Brian Daboll Eric Bieniemy Robert Saleh Byron Leftwich Arthur Smith Matt Eberflus Greg Roman And the B list of guys that may be tied to a specific opening: Raheem Morris (Atlanta) Urban Meyer (Jacksonville) Marvin Lewis Now add Pederson to the mix per the ESPN "Matchmaker" game, the best matches by team: Detroit - Saleh and Lewis B+ lead the way Atlanta - Morris an A Philadelphia - Saleh and Eberflus B- Jacksonville - Leftwich an A, Lewis and Smith A- NY Jets - Saleh, Leftwich are a B though a lot of chatter for Pederson now LA Chargers - Daboll, Smith, Bieniemy are As with Leftwich slightly behind A- Houston- Bieniemy, Leftwich are As So if you give the job to the best fit: Atlanta - Morris NY Jets - Pederson? Jacksonville - Leftwich Houston - Bieniemy Detroit - Saleh Philadelphia - Eberflus? Which leaves the Chargers for either Smith or Daboll. The point here is that probability of Daboll leaving may not be that high, and may be only the Jets and Chargers. It seems like Leftwich, Bieniemy, Saleh and Pederson would fill 4 of the 7, and if Morris gets Atlanta that only leaves 2. If Meyer takes Jacksonville, then it's down to 1 and you've got a lot of guys gunning for either the Chargers or Eagles job.

I was at the game and it was pretty clear watching him walk on and off the field that the injury still bothered him. He wasn't limping but he definitely wasn't close to 100%. I don't know how many snaps he played but he made the most of them - 7 targets, 7 receptions says it all. I thought it was a very gutsy performance that has flown a little under the radar.

I the more relevant comparison is to this year's Pittsburgh game. Indy has a better run game but if the D is defending the short passes that brings 8-9 "in the box" and helps defend the run too. If Indy goes that route the Bills can play run first and short passing game second and that would probably be the most effective strategy.

It's not Daboll's playbook it is the Bills' playbook and of course it stays here. If they don't promote from within McDermott could require an OC from outside to keep the same playbook. There are always tweaks to it every year. I'm thinking the "playbook" if it actually printed out an in a 3 ring binder has a Bills logo on the cover, not a picture of Daboll.

Everyone on the offensive coaching staff right now is an "expert" in Daboll's system, particularly Dorsey who has operated in it for 2 years now. When the OC leaves you don't have to scrap the existing system, it is actually the Buffalo Bills' system, not Daboll's. The biggest expert, however, is Josh Allen and there is no reason to change it now. If Daboll leaves, I would bet money it's Dorsey's job and he'd want it because he'd know that if he's successful he'd be next in line for a head coaching job.

Got 2 seats and in my normal section (135) which is pretty cool.

So agree...of course I read through about 3 pages of comments...

100% agree with this. I am an advocate of drafting a RB 3 out of every 4 years somewhere in rounds 2-4. One more this year, let Yeldon go and see who emerges. I would have been very happy with them picking Dobbins instead of Epenesa in 2nd this past year but Moss is okay.

Allen 70% completion % in 2nd half.... So several in national media now say about Allen in regards to his completion % he has to prove that he can consistently do it. Now on the season he is at 68.6%. If you are at 69% over 13 games and 471 passes, how many more games and passes does he have to throw to reach "consistency"? 471 passes is a pretty good sample size.

I think this is the proverbial 1 + 1 = 3, both are good at their jobs but because there is such good alignment working together has produced fabulous results. I give them both a lot of credit for evolving and understanding how the NFL game has changed. McDermott with the wide open passing game and seemingly using analytics to help guide his decisions (going on 4th down). Beane on how the NFL values certain positions (RB, OG), adeptly using draft capital to get what he needs and building a strong organization.

WIth 4 games to go, Josh Allen is within reach of many. How many of these will he break? Bills current passing records: Yards: Drew Bledsoe, 2002 - 4,359 Allen currently at 3,403 Passing TDs: Jim Kelly, 1991 - 33, Allen @ 26 Completion %: If use a minimum of 250 attempts, leader for full season is Trent Edwards in '08, 65.5%, Kelly Holcomb had 67.4% on 230 attempts in '05, Allen at 69.9% Yards per attempt (min. 250 attempts): Jack Kemp in '64, 8.5 yards/att. (269 attempts in 14 games), Allen currently at 8.0 QB Rating (min. 250 attempts): Jim Kelly, 1990, 101.2, Allen currently at 105.9 Rushing TDs by a QB: Josh Allen, 2019 - 9, Allen currently has 6 I say he gets 4 out of 6: yards, passing TDs, completion % and QB rating.

I think it's a good idea first guy that came to mind was Kaare Vedvik since he can punt and place kick but alas Washington FT has him on practice squad.

They have needs, the only glaring need is LB if Milano leaves, the others are needs. The way they have put the roster together is they are positioned to take best player available. The caveat I would put on that in rounds 1-3 there are definitely value plays based on their cap hits under a rookie contract: Round 1: The value plays by position are QB, WR, OT, CB, DL (mostly pass rusher though DTs go high too). Bills don't need QB, WR, if they re-sign D. Williams they are good at OT, so it would be CB or DL Round 2: RBs can be of value, but this is where TE, OG and LB are fertile value ground Round 3: Any of the above that haven't been address, take best player available After round 3 it's best player at any position, stick to your board and pick the best one, probably best athlete with upside. Even though they will be picking low they should be able to get 3 good players.

A few of Feliciano's shotgun snaps to Allen were at a high level - almost over his head. If they want to get the best 5 OL out there Morse is definitely one of them, as are Dawkins, Williams and Feliciano. I think the only spot open for debate is the other G position.

Johnny Green Jones, Cardale By the way, guess who is the Bills' all time leader in pass attempts, completions and yards by a non-QB? OJ Simpson 6-16, 110 yds 1 TD no Ints He has more career yards passing than Gale Gilbert (106) and Jones, Cardale (96).

Hard to argue with Bennett in terms of trade and Paup for free agent. Acquiring Tasker on waivers is also way up there. Diggs is a great trade that will probably be good for both teams, that one was very fair. Jerry Hughes trade was a good one, a trade from long ago that I really liked was for Frank Lewis. I think the Bills traded damaged goods Paul Seymour for him. Two other free agent signings - Lofton who was already mentioned, and Ted Washington.