jwhit34

This could be a very unique offseason in terms of roster building for the Bills. I will break down into groups and positions: Under Contract, Roster Locks (barring trades) - 36 total QB (2) - Allen, Trubisky (outside chance of Mike White) RB (2) - Cook, Davis WR (3) - Shakir, Coleman, Samuel TE (2) - Kincaid, Knox OL (9) - Dawkins, Edwards (though Joe Marino had an interesting take on releasing him), McGovern, Torrence, Brown, Grable, Anderson, VanPran Granger, Vandemark DL (6) - Oliver, Rousseau, Epenesa, Solomon, Carter, Jones (could cut and save a little but $7M cap hit) LB (4) - Milano, Bernard, D Williams, Ulofoshio (don't think they give up on 5th rounder yet) DB (5) - Taron Johnson, Benford, Rapp, Bishop, Elam (contract fully guaranteed would be $4.5 cap hit if released) K (1) - Bass LS (1) - Ferguson Returner (1) - Codrington Free Agents Highly Likely to Return (3) WR (1) - Hollins RB (1) - Ty Johnson FB (1) - Gilliam Punter (1) Either Martin or Camarda That leaves 13 spots, which probably break down as follows: WR - 1 TE - 1 DL - 4 probably 2 edge and 2 DT LB - 1 or 2 CB - 2 S - 2 That's 11 or 12, could see a WR6, the 6th LB would be #53 or some other position. Players under contract that have logged meaningful playing time that could fill the 13 open spots: C. Lewis B. Spector J. Ingram D. Smoot (void year) V. Miller Q. Morris is a restricted free agent so he could return. I think they move on from at least Smoot and Spector. Consensus opinion is that Von Miller will be released. There are probably around 10 open roster spots, which is far fewer than recent years. Factoring in that they currently have 8 draft picks and probably will get 2 comp picks, rookies will fill most of the remaining spots. If the comp picks end up in the 5th round, they have 7 in rounds 1-5. Those guys are making the team. They will sign some free agents, probably at least 5-6. Maybe not big names, but they always sign a bunch. So the roster will probably not be a big mystery this year. So what will Beane do? I think it can go one of 3 ways: 1. No big changes, rely on the draft to continue to build depth and manage the cap. Roster 7-8 picks and fill in the rest with free agents. 2. Since there are not many openings, trade some excess picks to move up in the 1st and 2nd round and have a better chance at landing a high impact player. 3. Trade a good player or two (Rousseau, someone on OL, D. Williams) along with picks to land a big time player like Garrett. It's pretty amazing to think the OL will essentially be the same for 3 seasons in a row, with the exception of a position switch (McGovern) and Edwards (who was OL #6) in and Morse out. People looking for substantial change will probably be disappointed. The good news is that there are still a lot of players who have not hit their ceiling yet. At a minimum, I'd say Shakir, Torrence, McGovern, Brown, Coleman, Kincaid, Rousseau, Benford, Bishop.

I don't know if this would work, but what about this trade: Rousseau, Bills 1st (#30), Bills 4th (#131) to Cleveland for Garrett, Cleveland's 3rd (#67) and 5th (#165). If it's not enough, instead of Cleveland's 3rd (#67) they trade the Bills' pick back (#94). Bills also have Chicago's 4th which is probably #108 if there are 5 comp picks at the end of the 3rd round. If you're the Bills do you do it? What about Cleveland?

And the Bills can just about match this list: James Cook - 2nd round pick Spencer Brown - 3rd round pick Dion Dawkins - 2nd round pick Greg Rousseau - late 1st round pick Christian Benford - 6th round pick Terrell Bernard - 3rd round pick Kalil Shakir - 5th round pick Taron Johnson - 4th round pick O'Cyrus Torrence - 2nd round pick Matt Milano - 5th round pick There's 10 to the KC 8. I will give you that Kelce and Jones are outstanding, McDuffie is right up there too, but Bills' list has 2 All Pros (Johnson, Milano), pro bowl (Dawkins), pro bowl caliber (Brown, Cook, Benford) and the rest are above average starters. And we will see about Bishop, Dorian Williams.

In my opinion, Greg Olsen is the best NFL analyst and Brady's exit will mean that he rightfully goes back to the #1 spot for Fox which is a plus. Brady may have gotten better but the bar was set very low based on the first couple of games. He wasn't a gaffe machine but didn't really say anything insightful, a kind of Captain Obvious type statements.

They can only bring up 2 from practice squad. Mike White is almost a lock. Gilliam will get a bunch of handoffs so no need for Gore Jr. This was previewed on Sunday vs. Jets. While a DB would be nice, I am hoping it is Will Clapp or Richard Gouriage. That way they can sit all 5 starting OL. The line from left to right would be Grable-Anderson-Van Pran-Clapp-Van Demark. They have plenty on DL and the LBs can be Morrow, Andreesson and Eddie U.

There are only 2 practice squad call ups allowed per week. The most important would be an OL player, either Clapp or Gouriage, so the entire OL can be pulled. After the Allen plays, the line should be Grable-Anderson-Van Pran-Clapp/Gouriage-Van Demark. They will not call up Gore, they will use the 2 plus Gilliam. We got a preview of that Sunday. It could be Hamler or Virgil, but more likely a DB. Codrington-Elam-Ingraham and 2 safeties will play. Could be Hyde but maybe more likely Cine sees some action. McDermott alluded to wanting to see how some players have progressed. He doesn't need to see Hyde play. They have plenty DL men on active roster. They probably have to call up Mike White. So I will go with OL and QB,

Shakir, Cook and Rousseau are very good players, but Benford is markedly above them all in terms of value to the team, performance compared to the rest of the league and the drop off between them and their replacement. All 3 are ranked statistically in the teens in their position group, Benford is most likely top 5. His advanced metrics are outstanding.

For years and years we all heard about "The Patriot Way." It will probably take a Super Bowl win but at some point maybe we will start hearing the media talk about "The Bills Way." It's easy to pick apart coaches for a decision or play call, and a GM for a draft pick or trade that didn't work out. But you have to look at the full body of work. Beane and McDermott have been outstanding and they aren't done yet.

I was going to respond to the "What's Up With Elam" topic, but have chosen to go positive instead and looked at the entire 2022 draft class. A lot of the experts say the appropriate time to evaluate a draft is in year 3. Well, it's year 3 for the 2022 draft class. As a reminder, here were the picks: Round 1 - Elam 2 - Cook 3 - Bernard 5 - Shakir 6 - Araiza 6 - Benford 6 - Tenuta 7 - Spector This is one heck of a draft: 3 Pro Bowl or better caliber players (Cook, Bernard, Benford - could he be All Pro?) Shakir, who may not be Pro Bowl but has emerged as a top third slot receiver and is leading the team in receptions and yards. 2 quality depth players (Elam, Spector) capable of stepping in to start when needed and quite possibly start for many teams. 1 who would still be on the team if not for the unfortunate personal stuff (Araiza). Tenuta, who wasn't good enough to make the Bills but is still kicking around the league on Practice Squads. All 8 picks still in the league, and 5 of the 8 in the 5th round or later. This draft was key to the Bills/Beane being able to move on from some vets (Edmunds, White, Singletary, Gabe Davis) whose play either declined or were too expensive. It also allowed them to transition to "Allen Era 2" without taking a step back. A transformative draft in my opinion. Fans can woulda, coulda, shoulda the Elam pick but he probably starts for 1/2 the teams in the league. He was pretty good vs. the Dolphins. Is any objective evaluator giving this draft anything but an A? By the way, in the 8 drafts since McDermott/Beane arrived in 2017 (giving McDermott the '17 year): All 24 players drafted in the first 4 rounds are still in the league, and at least 18 have started multiple games for the Bills Notable picks round 5 or later: Milano (5), Shakir (5), Bass (6), Dane Jackson (7), Teller (5), Hamlin (6), Benford (6) How many other teams have done better?

Data on interim HC in past 6 years. Results are dependent on opponent vs. "interim coach bump" (myth?), overall 8-5 though: 2018 Cleveland Browns - 2-5-1 under Hue Jackson Lost opener under Gregg Williams (v Chiefs) 5-2 rest of the way under Williams 2018 Green Bay Packers - 4-7-1 under Mike McCarthy Won opener under Joe Philbin (v Falcons) 1-2 rest of the way under Philbin 2019 Washington Commanders - 0-5 under Jay Gruden Won opener under Bill Callahan (@ Dolphins) 2-8 rest of the way under Callahan 2019 Carolina Panthers - 5-7 under Ron Rivera Lost opener under Perry Fewell (@ Falcons) 0-3 rest of the way under Fewell 2020 Houston Texans - 0-4 under Bill O'Brien Won opener under Romeo Crennel (v Jaguars) 3-8 rest of the way under Crennel 2020 Atlanta Falcons - 0-5 under Dan Quinn Won opener under Raheem Morris (@ Vikings) 3-7 rest of the way under Morris 2020 Detroit Lions - 4-7 under Matt Patricia Won opener under Darrell Bevell (@ Bears) 0-3 rest of the way under Bevell, plus 0-1 under Robert Prince when Bevell had Covid 2021 Jacksonville Jaguars - 2-11 under Urban Meyer Lost opener under Darrell Bevell (v Texans) 1-2 rest of the way under Bevell 2021 Las Vegas Raiders - 3-2 under Jon Gruden (officially resigned, not fired) Won opener under Rich Bisaccia (@ Broncos) 6-5 rest of the way under Bisaccia, made playoffs, lost in WC @ Bengals 2022 Carolina Panthers - 1-4 under Matt Rhule Lost opener under Steve Wilks (@ Rams) 6-5 rest of the way under Wilks 2022 Indianapolis Colts - 3-5-1 under Frank Reich Won opener under Jeff Saturday (@ Raiders) 0-7 rest of the way under Saturday 2022 Denver Broncos - 4-11 under Nathaniel Hackett Lost opener under Jerry Rosburg (@ Chiefs) 1-0 rest of the way under Rosburg 2023 Las Vegas Raiders - 3-5 under Josh McDaniels Won opener under Antonio Pierce (v Giants) 1-2 rest of the way so far under Pierce A few findings from that: Only Gregg Williams, Rich Bisaccia, Steve Wilks and technically Jerry Rosburg had a win percentage above .500 after their first game Of the eight that won their opening game, only one opponent finished at .500 or better (2020 Bears finished 8-8) Rich Bisaccia is the only interim HC to both win his first game, and have a winning record over their remaining games None of the Interim HC in this period have been given a permanent seat yet

While this a rationalization, if Benford was selected in the 1st round and Elam the 6th, everyone would be elated that the Bills hit on a really good CB and then added excellent depth in the 6th and would not want to trade Elam. Totally understand the opportunity cost of drafting Elam in the 1st - could have had Tyler Linderbaum, Jermaine Johnson, George Karlaftis (imagine if they would have picked another D lineman) or Christian Watson. However, the draft is a crapshoot even in the 1st round. Players picked before Elam: Evan Neal (7th), Jahan Dotson (16th), Kenny Pickett (21st). Also need to play the long game - Douglas may not be back in '25 and Elam becomes a starter. I'd say do not trade.

I am surprised that many still react to the headline number This is the first big point: only $19.85 million guaranteed. Other important points (based on numbers at Spotrac): 1. Cap hit in '25 is $8.2 million. That includes the prorated portion of the $16 million option bonus which is $3.2 million. It is over 5 years because the contract includes void years so it is $3.2 million/year for 5 years. At that point all the guaranteed money has been paid out. 2. The dead cap money starting in 2026-28: $3.84, $2.56 and $1.28 million. Injuries or decline in play and they are out. 3. Between high salaries and roster bonus they can either move on or he becomes an extension candidate in '26-28. It looks like a smart contract to me. If he continues to improve, it will be worthwhile, if he plateaus, declines or is injured they can get out of it.

I like the 2 captain thing. Leadership: 10 makes sense, probably have representation for each position group (QB, RB, WR/TE, OL, DL, LB, DB, Special Teams) plus 2 others.

1. Bills record? Do they win the AFC East? 11-6 and yes 2. If they make the playoffs, how far do they go? AFC Champs 3. What players win awards or are All-Pro or Pro Bowl selections? All Pro: Allen; Pro Bowl: Dawkins, Kincaid, Bernard, Oliver, Allen Offense: 4. Josh's stats - completions, passing yards, passing TDs, INTs, Rushing yards and Rushing TDs 400 completions, 4,100 yds, 33 TD, 13 INT, 625 rushing, 10 TDs 5. Team Leader rushing and how many yards? Cook 925 6. Team leading receiver and how many yards? Kincaid 900 7. Team leader in TDs (not named Allen) and how many? 8. Offense MVP not named Allen Kincaid 9. Biggest surprise on offense Keon Coleman 10. Biggest disappointment on offense David Edwards 11. Offense ROY Keon Coleman 12. Most improved player on offense O'Cyrus Torrence 13. Total points scored for the season 463 Defense: 14. Team leading tackler and with how many (solo and total - for example Bernard had 84 solo and 143 total last season) Bernard 90 solo, 145 total 15. Team sack leader with how many Rousseau 9 16. Team takeaway leader (fumbles and Ints) Rasul Douglas 6 17. Defense MVP Rousseau 18. Defense ROY Cole Bishop 19. Defense biggest surprise Bishop 20. Defense Most Improved Dorian Williams 21. Defense biggest disappointment Taylor Rapp 22. Will Milano return this season and if so will he be effective? Yes and yes (by December) 23. Points allowed by the defense 320 Special teams: 24. Will Bass last the season? Yes Practice Squad 25. Which initial PS player will have the biggest impact on the team this year? No one. However, if I have to pick one it's Lewis Cine. Safety injuries could persist and may need to be called up. Other 26. Any other prediction you care to mention? Coleman, Samuel and Shakir will combine for 215 receptions, 2,300 yards and 20 TDs. Answer as many or as few as you'd like. Anything I missed?

I hope no one changed their W-L outlook based on who the Bills waived/released today. In fact I am sure no team's odds changed based on who was released today. The only caveat would be if there was a key player that was placed on season-ending IR that wasn't expected and I don't think that happened league-wide. The bottom of the roster (#49-53) churns all throughout the season for every team. It's necessary with injuries but what happens at the top of the roster that impacts how a team does, not who is the 6th WR or whether a team keeps 6 edge rushers or 5 vs. 10 DBs vs. 11.