jwhit34

Shakir, Cook and Rousseau are very good players, but Benford is markedly above them all in terms of value to the team, performance compared to the rest of the league and the drop off between them and their replacement. All 3 are ranked statistically in the teens in their position group, Benford is most likely top 5. His advanced metrics are outstanding.

For years and years we all heard about "The Patriot Way." It will probably take a Super Bowl win but at some point maybe we will start hearing the media talk about "The Bills Way." It's easy to pick apart coaches for a decision or play call, and a GM for a draft pick or trade that didn't work out. But you have to look at the full body of work. Beane and McDermott have been outstanding and they aren't done yet.

I was going to respond to the "What's Up With Elam" topic, but have chosen to go positive instead and looked at the entire 2022 draft class. A lot of the experts say the appropriate time to evaluate a draft is in year 3. Well, it's year 3 for the 2022 draft class. As a reminder, here were the picks: Round 1 - Elam 2 - Cook 3 - Bernard 5 - Shakir 6 - Araiza 6 - Benford 6 - Tenuta 7 - Spector This is one heck of a draft: 3 Pro Bowl or better caliber players (Cook, Bernard, Benford - could he be All Pro?) Shakir, who may not be Pro Bowl but has emerged as a top third slot receiver and is leading the team in receptions and yards. 2 quality depth players (Elam, Spector) capable of stepping in to start when needed and quite possibly start for many teams. 1 who would still be on the team if not for the unfortunate personal stuff (Araiza). Tenuta, who wasn't good enough to make the Bills but is still kicking around the league on Practice Squads. All 8 picks still in the league, and 5 of the 8 in the 5th round or later. This draft was key to the Bills/Beane being able to move on from some vets (Edmunds, White, Singletary, Gabe Davis) whose play either declined or were too expensive. It also allowed them to transition to "Allen Era 2" without taking a step back. A transformative draft in my opinion. Fans can woulda, coulda, shoulda the Elam pick but he probably starts for 1/2 the teams in the league. He was pretty good vs. the Dolphins. Is any objective evaluator giving this draft anything but an A? By the way, in the 8 drafts since McDermott/Beane arrived in 2017 (giving McDermott the '17 year): All 24 players drafted in the first 4 rounds are still in the league, and at least 18 have started multiple games for the Bills Notable picks round 5 or later: Milano (5), Shakir (5), Bass (6), Dane Jackson (7), Teller (5), Hamlin (6), Benford (6) How many other teams have done better?

Data on interim HC in past 6 years. Results are dependent on opponent vs. "interim coach bump" (myth?), overall 8-5 though: 2018 Cleveland Browns - 2-5-1 under Hue Jackson Lost opener under Gregg Williams (v Chiefs) 5-2 rest of the way under Williams 2018 Green Bay Packers - 4-7-1 under Mike McCarthy Won opener under Joe Philbin (v Falcons) 1-2 rest of the way under Philbin 2019 Washington Commanders - 0-5 under Jay Gruden Won opener under Bill Callahan (@ Dolphins) 2-8 rest of the way under Callahan 2019 Carolina Panthers - 5-7 under Ron Rivera Lost opener under Perry Fewell (@ Falcons) 0-3 rest of the way under Fewell 2020 Houston Texans - 0-4 under Bill O'Brien Won opener under Romeo Crennel (v Jaguars) 3-8 rest of the way under Crennel 2020 Atlanta Falcons - 0-5 under Dan Quinn Won opener under Raheem Morris (@ Vikings) 3-7 rest of the way under Morris 2020 Detroit Lions - 4-7 under Matt Patricia Won opener under Darrell Bevell (@ Bears) 0-3 rest of the way under Bevell, plus 0-1 under Robert Prince when Bevell had Covid 2021 Jacksonville Jaguars - 2-11 under Urban Meyer Lost opener under Darrell Bevell (v Texans) 1-2 rest of the way under Bevell 2021 Las Vegas Raiders - 3-2 under Jon Gruden (officially resigned, not fired) Won opener under Rich Bisaccia (@ Broncos) 6-5 rest of the way under Bisaccia, made playoffs, lost in WC @ Bengals 2022 Carolina Panthers - 1-4 under Matt Rhule Lost opener under Steve Wilks (@ Rams) 6-5 rest of the way under Wilks 2022 Indianapolis Colts - 3-5-1 under Frank Reich Won opener under Jeff Saturday (@ Raiders) 0-7 rest of the way under Saturday 2022 Denver Broncos - 4-11 under Nathaniel Hackett Lost opener under Jerry Rosburg (@ Chiefs) 1-0 rest of the way under Rosburg 2023 Las Vegas Raiders - 3-5 under Josh McDaniels Won opener under Antonio Pierce (v Giants) 1-2 rest of the way so far under Pierce A few findings from that: Only Gregg Williams, Rich Bisaccia, Steve Wilks and technically Jerry Rosburg had a win percentage above .500 after their first game Of the eight that won their opening game, only one opponent finished at .500 or better (2020 Bears finished 8-8) Rich Bisaccia is the only interim HC to both win his first game, and have a winning record over their remaining games None of the Interim HC in this period have been given a permanent seat yet

While this a rationalization, if Benford was selected in the 1st round and Elam the 6th, everyone would be elated that the Bills hit on a really good CB and then added excellent depth in the 6th and would not want to trade Elam. Totally understand the opportunity cost of drafting Elam in the 1st - could have had Tyler Linderbaum, Jermaine Johnson, George Karlaftis (imagine if they would have picked another D lineman) or Christian Watson. However, the draft is a crapshoot even in the 1st round. Players picked before Elam: Evan Neal (7th), Jahan Dotson (16th), Kenny Pickett (21st). Also need to play the long game - Douglas may not be back in '25 and Elam becomes a starter. I'd say do not trade.

I am surprised that many still react to the headline number This is the first big point: only $19.85 million guaranteed. Other important points (based on numbers at Spotrac): 1. Cap hit in '25 is $8.2 million. That includes the prorated portion of the $16 million option bonus which is $3.2 million. It is over 5 years because the contract includes void years so it is $3.2 million/year for 5 years. At that point all the guaranteed money has been paid out. 2. The dead cap money starting in 2026-28: $3.84, $2.56 and $1.28 million. Injuries or decline in play and they are out. 3. Between high salaries and roster bonus they can either move on or he becomes an extension candidate in '26-28. It looks like a smart contract to me. If he continues to improve, it will be worthwhile, if he plateaus, declines or is injured they can get out of it.

I like the 2 captain thing. Leadership: 10 makes sense, probably have representation for each position group (QB, RB, WR/TE, OL, DL, LB, DB, Special Teams) plus 2 others.

1. Bills record? Do they win the AFC East? 11-6 and yes 2. If they make the playoffs, how far do they go? AFC Champs 3. What players win awards or are All-Pro or Pro Bowl selections? All Pro: Allen; Pro Bowl: Dawkins, Kincaid, Bernard, Oliver, Allen Offense: 4. Josh's stats - completions, passing yards, passing TDs, INTs, Rushing yards and Rushing TDs 400 completions, 4,100 yds, 33 TD, 13 INT, 625 rushing, 10 TDs 5. Team Leader rushing and how many yards? Cook 925 6. Team leading receiver and how many yards? Kincaid 900 7. Team leader in TDs (not named Allen) and how many? 8. Offense MVP not named Allen Kincaid 9. Biggest surprise on offense Keon Coleman 10. Biggest disappointment on offense David Edwards 11. Offense ROY Keon Coleman 12. Most improved player on offense O'Cyrus Torrence 13. Total points scored for the season 463 Defense: 14. Team leading tackler and with how many (solo and total - for example Bernard had 84 solo and 143 total last season) Bernard 90 solo, 145 total 15. Team sack leader with how many Rousseau 9 16. Team takeaway leader (fumbles and Ints) Rasul Douglas 6 17. Defense MVP Rousseau 18. Defense ROY Cole Bishop 19. Defense biggest surprise Bishop 20. Defense Most Improved Dorian Williams 21. Defense biggest disappointment Taylor Rapp 22. Will Milano return this season and if so will he be effective? Yes and yes (by December) 23. Points allowed by the defense 320 Special teams: 24. Will Bass last the season? Yes Practice Squad 25. Which initial PS player will have the biggest impact on the team this year? No one. However, if I have to pick one it's Lewis Cine. Safety injuries could persist and may need to be called up. Other 26. Any other prediction you care to mention? Coleman, Samuel and Shakir will combine for 215 receptions, 2,300 yards and 20 TDs. Answer as many or as few as you'd like. Anything I missed?

I hope no one changed their W-L outlook based on who the Bills waived/released today. In fact I am sure no team's odds changed based on who was released today. The only caveat would be if there was a key player that was placed on season-ending IR that wasn't expected and I don't think that happened league-wide. The bottom of the roster (#49-53) churns all throughout the season for every team. It's necessary with injuries but what happens at the top of the roster that impacts how a team does, not who is the 6th WR or whether a team keeps 6 edge rushers or 5 vs. 10 DBs vs. 11.

Thanks for the info that's a lot of work (and writing). None of the 10 (9 if you only count McCloud once) have played meaningful snaps. The two most noteworthy are Kingsley Jonathan and Alex Austin (who had an INT vs. Allen). Everyone has bounced around mostly on practice squads. It's noteworthy that 9 (or 10) have been picked up but none have really "made it." As for Beane's success at finding NFL caliber players but not elite talent in the early rounds, I don't agree with that. If elite is All Pro, then sure but how many in each draft are on that level, 5-8? If you're not drafting in the top 10 you're probably not getting All Pros very often. Pro Bowl caliber to very good players, he has done pretty well. First rounders have all been good to excellent except Elam and there has been 2nd-3rd round successes like Dawkins, Cook, Spencer Brown, Bernard, Torrence.

Aaron Kromer’s two strengths as an OL coach is tailoring techniques to best fit the players’ strengths and game planning. No game planning in this game so I am not too concerned about OL. Reality is you have 5 of the 6 who played meaningful snaps last year back they will figure it out, plus Torrence and Brown should still be ascending players. Super Bowl Bills routinely went 0-4 or 1-3 in preseason and often looked horrible.

The thing that isn't mentioned is that Beane has been on the record stating that they had a deal with Denver for the #5 pick if "their guy" (Bradley Chubb) was already taken. So if Chubb was gone, Elway still wasn't taking Allen, he would have dealt the pick to the Bills so they could pick Allen. So Elway would have turned down the chance to draft Allen no matter what.

It seems that many have bemoaned the brutal stretches of the Bills' schedule each of the past few years. It is inevitable for division winners based on the way the schedule is put together, particularly now with the addition of the 17th game. Here is the schedule formula for an AFC division winner: 6 games - 2 games each vs. the other teams in your division 4 games - 1 game each vs. one of the other AFC divisions 2 games - 1 game each vs. the other AFC division winners 4 games - 1 game each vs. one of the NFC divisions 1 game - Vs. one of the other NFC division winners So, each team that wins their division play 5 of the other 7 division winners, and will play two, 2nd place teams (the games against the entire AFC and NFC divisions). That is potentially 7 playoff teams. They will only play 4 games outside of the division games vs. 3rd or 4th place teams. If you only have 4 games a year vs. non-division opponents that finished in 3rd or 4th place teams, which is just under 1/4 of your games, it is impossible to avoid really difficult stretches of games. And it is the same for all division winners, not just the Bills: Ravens start the season: Chiefs, Raiders, Cowboys, Bills, Bengals. Texans starting 11/10: Detroit, Dallas, Tennessee, Jacksonville, MIami, KC, Baltimore It's just how the schedule works.

Re: people saying schedule is tough/brutal: As long as they win their division, it will always be tough. Division winners play their 6 in-division games, then will always play 5 of the other 7 division winners and two 2nd place teams. That's 13 of the 17 games, the other 4 are the 3rd and 4th place teams from the divisions in which they play everyone (one NFC division, one AFC division). Should be used to that by now.

Comparison of the Bills picks at beginning of the draft and now: Original 28, 60, 128, 133, 144, 160, 163, 200, 204, 248 Now 33, 60, 95, 128, 141, 144, 160, 163, 204, 221 Analysis: Picks retained: 60, 128, 144, 160, 163, 204 Trade down from 28 to 33 (-5) Trade up from: 133 to 95 (+38) 200 to 141 (+59) 248 to 221 (+27) That's good maneuvering presuming that their WR is still available.