With the way you framed this, there are no misses in your world. History shows this is an inexact science.
The easy out when your job is on the line is to go with the tangible measurements. The other stuff which dictates success at a high level is much more difficult to measure and quantify. So in 3 years you are explaining to an owner why a draft choice did not make it, you point to the measurables. Thus it can not be your fault if a player washes out.
it works both ways. Wilson dropped until the 3rd round because if he was drafted high and failed, the owner would point to the lack of height which can be measured.
Would you draft a player # 1 if he had Allen's body with Mayfield's results - Yes. Would you draft Allen # 1 with Mayfield's body and Allen's results - no.