hondo in seattle

I love to believe this happened somewhere in the multiverse.

I don't think the best team - or the best HC - necessarily win the Super Bowl, especially in the era of the salary cap. Each year, there is a group of roughly equally talented teams capable of making a run at the start of the playoffs. Winning each week is a factor of coaching, roster strength, weather, injury, the bounce of the ball, refereeing, and other factors. Some of these factors are outside the team's control. Maybe your QB finds his gf in bed with another guy the night before a big game and it screws with his head. Or has some other mental health issue. Maybe your star receiver's dad dies. Or your stud DE catches the flu. Or your shutdown corner sprains his ankle while walking down the stairs at home. As Forest Gump says, "Sh*t happens." The best coaches tilt the odds in their team's favor with good preparation, game-planning, play-calling, etc. The best GMs give their coaches a roster that has a legitimate shot. But you can only slant the odds. No coach is so much better than his peers that he can guarantee victory. And no roster is so good that it's invincible. With 32 teams in the NFL, the average team has a roughly 3% chance of winning the Super Bowl in any given year. A good GM/HC combo might increase your odds to maybe 10 or 15%. If you have a good combo, you keep it together until it finally delivers. Maybe it happens in their first year together. Maybe in their tenth. Some of it is simply dumb luck.

I've seen the Bills play in Miami, San Francisco, Seattle, and Kansas City. But the last time I was at a home game was in 1974 when OJ got hurt but the Bills still rallied to defeat the Raiders on MNF. But I'm going to make it to Buffalo when the new stadium is built. The video excited me. I want to hear New Highmark rock and feel the energy!

I should be gloating because the Allen-Diggs problem I suggested, and was criticized for, has only gotten bigger proving I was right to be concerned. But... (1) I'm a Bills fan and I don't want there to be a problem. (2) A lot of stuff in the media sounds like nonsense. Even as someone who suspects there might be a problem, I'm not buying some of the stories circulating right now. Too much rumor and speculation. And sometimes, I hate to say, I do think some media guys invent sources to mouth something newsworthy.

Back in April, I was wondering if there was an Allen-Diggs problem. So I started a thread: "The Allen-Diggs Relationship in Decline?" I received a lot of negative feedback and confess that there is a tiny part of me that wants to gloat about later developments. But even I think the recent Diggs talk in the media is insane. We still don't know definitively if there's an Allen-Diggs problem, but the talking heads have already given us dozens of reasons why the problem exists - none of which is supported by hard evidence. There are a lot of rumors, speculation, and unadulterated BS out there.

Interesting comments on McD: The head coach’s gruff coaching style made matters worse. Jones describes McDermott as a “lunch pail guy” and does credit him for being manically detailed. But he also calls him downright “intimidating.” During meetings, McDermott would spontaneously grill players. Ask Jones, for example, to name the top three coverages the Baltimore Ravens run on third-and-“2 to 6.” When Jones answered Cover 3, McDermott pressed him. Which type of Cover 3? Such a high-pressure environment was a natural pendulum swing away from Rex Ryan’s country-club ways. But wind everybody up this tight year ‘round and players will inevitably crack.

Curious. The names you expect to see at the top are not at the top. I wonder what their methodology was.

Regular season prowess buys you a ticket into the playoffs. It's important. We haven't had a coach for a long time who could do that. McD does it regularly. Football in the playoffs is played with the same rules with the same players. It's not some special animal. The only difference is that the 'schedule' gets tough. All the teams are good. Each game is, more-or-less, a 50-50 proposition. But the Bills - under McD - can beat anybody. They just need to string enough victories together in the playoffs to walk away with a championship. They haven't done that - yet. But give them enough shots at it and they will.

No GM, no HC, entirely controls a season. No GM or HC guarantees a team a Lombardi. What you want is a guy who tilts the odds in your favor. McD and Beane both do that. By building a good team each year, they give us a legit chance for a trophy. If they stay around long enough, the gridiron dice will eventually favor us.

Milestones... For nearly two decades, we couldn't win many games, couldn't get into the playoffs as a WC, couldn't win the AFCE. Now we do all those things. Beane and McD are raising the bar. They still need to raise it a bit higher. Terry is going to let them finish the job they've capably started.

Playoff history... We had zero playoff appearances or wins in the 17 years prior to McD. We've had 9 appearances and 4 wins since he's been here. It seems we're on an upward trajectory.

It's funny. So many folks thought it was Super Bowl or Bust for McD. Apparently, Terry didn't see it that way. I'm personally happy. After 17 years of hopelessness, we finally have a legitimate shot at the Lombardi with these two. You can't win the dance competition without a ticket to the dance. These guys give us tickets.

I was disappointed in him early in the season and really didn't fully grasp how much he improved late until I read that PFF named him their Bills Breakout Player of 2023. And he seems in the vid to have a high football IQ. "Despite being a first-round pick in 2022, Elam failed to become a starting cornerback by the start of the season and had an inconsistent rookie year. However, as a former first-round pick, he should have plenty of opportunities to win that position battle. He also finished the season strong, flipping his 56.7 PFF grade in the regular season to 87.1 in two playoff games, a mark that would have ranked second among cornerbacks in the regular season." www.pff.com/news/nfl-breakout-candidates-all-16-afc-teams-chiefs-kadarius-toney-steelers-kenny-pickett#BUF

I don't doubt you GB. You are one of the very best posters on this site. But aren't you a bit distant from the action? Have you ever even been to Buffalo?

I had previously posted this report on another thread. It seemed worthy of noticing. But not worthy of its own thread. At least, that's how I added it up. It's probably BS. Diggs' contract makes a trade hard. And he's too important to the offense.

Though his PFF grade in two playoff games was 87.1. He got better as the season progressed.

Meanwhile, Robert Griffin III says there's an unresolved issue between Diggs and Allen: In a June 21 episode of the “Rich Eisen Show,” Griffin reported that “some people close” to Buffalo believe there is some unresolved tension between the team’s two top stars... “I think it’s clear this is a personal thing between Josh (Allen) and Diggs,” Griffin said. www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/bills-qb-josh-allen-blamed-for-his-role-in-stefon-diggs-drama/ar-AA1cTD6p?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=d0770ac9f77c4fd19f36047b881de0d7&ei=21

Benjamin Albright is reporting that the Bills are open to trading away Diggs. I'm not sure I believe him but if true, it's one more reason to get DHop. “I talked to some people in Buffalo on the condition of anonymity and they said that, ‘Publicly, we’re not moving him. Privately, we would consider it under the right circumstances.’”

This might be BS, but Benjamin Albright is now reporting that the Bills are open to trading Diggs. Another sign of trouble in Paradise? Maybe. Maybe not. “I talked to some people in Buffalo on the condition of anonymity and they said that, ‘Publicly, we’re not moving him. Privately, we would consider it under the right circumstances.’” www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/breaking-buffalo-bills-are-privately-open-to-trading-star-wr-stefon-diggs/ar-AA1cTTsE?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=cd10fcc217344e618798895128ba54f7&ei=14

Sometimes guys learn and grow. Daboll wasn't a popular choice for OC when McD hired him because Daboll had failed in the coordinator role at Cleveland... and then again in Miami... and yet again in KC. But he did well enough with us to earn a Head Coach position. I'm not sure Washington underachieved with the DL. I think Beane hasn't drafted as well for the DL as we may have hoped.

Why do we care about WGR's power rankings?

I don't either. But New England is obviously no longer a QB-centric offense. Running backs are more vital to the Pats than they are to us.

I kind of thought the DC duties this year would be shared between McD and Al Holcomb who's been a DC before. I would have guessed that McD would be the main person responsible for game-planning and play-calling with Holcomb running practices. But with Washington's new title, I'm wondering what the defensive coaching hierarchy is really like.

It's not nepotism. He's not hiring friends. He's hiring people he knows and trusts. Look around the NFL. Most HCs hire people they've crossed paths with. But they're not hiring guys to hang out and drink beer with. Instead, they're hiring people who have impressed and think similarly. As a HC, you can hire a known commodity. Or you can hire a guy with a good reputation who interviews well, hoping he'll work well with the rest of the staff.

It takes two to tango.