hondo in seattle

Go big or go home: Bomb to Harty.

Most gurus are rarely right. Because each year there are about 8 or 10 teams with more-or-less equal chances of getting to the Super Bowl and then a couple of surprise teams with worse odds that make late season/playoff runs. When you consider the importance of luck (bounces, calls, etc.) and injuries, there is no way of knowing who will make it to the Super Bowl. Even the best computer programs can't predict it with accuracy. But Peter is more knowledgeable than most talking heads. The fact he's picking us is somewhat encouraging, I suppose. If the world's best AI told me that the Bills had a 15% chance of winning it all, I'd be thrilled because that's better than most teams. But it's still a long shot. At this time of year, realistically, every team is a long shot.

A few thoughts... I like Jim and I'm sure Jim was saddened by Chad's many acts of stupidity. Of course, I hoped Chad would turn his life around for Jim's sake as well as his own. Chad grew up privileged. He'll enjoy more & better opportunities in life than I ever had. But I'm not jealous or bitter about it. That's just the way things are: life isn't fair and the U.S. isn't a meritocracy. None of that is Chad's fault. I think it's better to root for people than against them. I hope all people overcome their shortcomings and find peace, health, happiness, and success. It seems Chad is moving in the right direction and I'm glad to see it.

Critiquing coaches is part of the joy of being a fan. But I get what you're saying. I fought in Desert Storm and read some of the analyses written both before and after the war. Much of the stuff published was amusing, to put it mildly. Many so-called analysts that people relied on for accurate information & insight were downright clueless. Most amateurs overrate their own opinions and underrate the expertise of the professionals. But knowing that, I'm still going to b*tch and moan if Dorsey doesn't get the RBs involved in the passing game and call more quick-hitting passes.

Your game plan makes sense as an approach for the season, but I'm dialed in on the opening game. Coaches preach to their players, "one game at a time." But sometimes guys like Andy Reid try to put things on film so future opponents have to worry about them. Like chess grandmasters, the best coaches are thinking several moves ahead. I think it makes sense to stress-test the Jets OL because I think they'll fail. But, also, it'll be advantageous to put an aggressive D on tape. McD is not known as a heavy or creative blitzer. So we go heavy and get creative in Game One and win. That'll give future opponents more to think about and prepare for.

That may be true but, GB, I'm not that guy. Blitzing is not part of my mantra and never has been. Making a blanket statement like that, which doesn't apply to me, is not an effective refutation. I'm going off mantra here because these are unique circumstances. Nate and Aaron spent the last few months building a prototype. It's new, inevitably still incomplete, and built with a hodge-podge of materials including some that are sub-spec (the OL). The best way to destroy something like that is to put it under extreme stress.

We're not winning Super Bowls because only 1 in 32 teams gets to win. Whatever Josh does or doesn't do, we went 14-4 last season, counting the playoffs. Despite all the injuries to our defensive stars, and Josh's elbow, we still had one of the most successful seasons in the NFL. Unfortunately, one of those few losses happened against a good team in the playoffs. Each year, there might be 8 or 10 more-or-less equally matched teams all with a more-or-less equal chance of winning a trophy. It didn't work out last year because we had significant injuries and because that's just the nature of the game. Of all the talented teams that get into the playoffs, all but one end the season on a loss. If you want to know if Josh is doing enough, you have to know how much he's doing. We lack both specific Josh information and comparative data. We don't know how much Josh watches film nor how that compares to other QBs. We don't know how much Josh works out nor how that compares to other QBs. I hope he's closer to the Tom Brady end of the spectrum than the Jamarcus Russell. But, so far, what Josh has said is too vague to get too overly worried or judgmental about it.

How do you guys think we'll defend the Jets on Monday night? Our defense is different in a few ways from last year. The most obvious and meaningful are a new DC calling plays and a new MLB. But there are some other interesting differences, too, like having Rapp on the roster and creating intriguing options (Big Nickel, anyone?). And Leonard Floyd spicing up the pass rush (though, disappointingly, Von will be out). I don't follow the Jets closely but I do know what Rodgers brings. Besides his arm talent, he reads defenses and moves around the pocket well. Teams only blitzed him 21% of the time last year (7th lowest rate in the league) because historically he's been effective against the blitz. But Rodgers is in a new city, with a new OC, surrounded by new players, protected by a subpar OL, and using a playbook that he can't possibly have mastered yet as thoroughly as he did the one in Green Bay. Should we put Rodgers under siege with a non-Bills-like and unexpected heavy blitz package? At his age, and at this point in his Jets career, can Rodgers respond as effectively to the blitz as he has in the past? If you don't like the blitz idea, what would you do?

Shaw, I respect your knowledge of the LB position and am not trying to be argumentative. But is it really correct that Kirksey has been an effective pass defender? I don't know the player very well but I thought I read somewhere that his PFF pass defense grade last season was in the low 50s which ranked him something like 89th among LBs as I recall. Beane and McD are clearly in the modern age when it comes to LBs being more pass defenders than run defenders these days. Yet they sign a guy who's not a good pass defender - and arguably not a good defender of any kind. Though his experience and intelligence would probably make him a better leader from that position than any of the younger guys. I wonder what Beane and McD are seeing and thinking other than the very obvious - the MLBs on the 53-man roster aren't very good.

The Cover 1 highlights look good. And Kirksey's has a lot of starting experience and has been voted a team captain. That all speaks well for him. But Kirksey's PFF score of 56.1 makes me wonder how balanced and representative the Cover 1 film and commentary was. Though the talk about playing to a guy's strengths was interesting.

I get what you're saying but JAGs come in different flavors. Other than maybe Kincaid, we didn't add any elite playmakers to the roster. But this year's JAGs are better than last year's JAGs. Enough to make a difference. Because the schedule is presumably harder, I don't know if we'll win more regular-season games. But I do think we'll win more postseason games.

I loved Inigo in the movie, and I love Inigo's optimism here. But, yikes, to predict we'll crush KC's offensive output is a bit much. A lot will have to go right for that to happen. Although I have to agree that, on paper, this offense does look to be better than last year's edition. To me, the key is the OL. If it's just average this year (and we avoid serious injuries to key players), we'll score a ton of points. Fingers crossed.

I think our roster is better this year than last year. I don't think it's the best roster in the league which is the goal. But that doesn't necessarily mean we won't win the SB.

It's funny when the guys on the NYJ bandwagon list The Jets dominant defense as one of the reasons they're picking the Jets. Last year, despite nearly all our best defensive playmakers being hurt (Miller, Poyer, Hyde, White), we still allowed fewer points than the Jets. The Jets D is legit. But so is ours. So to pick the Jets over the Bills, I think you have to assume the Jets O with Rodgers will surpass our O. Seems unlikely, though I do think the Jets are a team to watch.

I think it's hilarious the way people are declaring the end of the Buffalo Bills. The most recent example is Acho saying the Bills aren't elite anymore. Some other talking heads have suggested a 3rd or 4th place AFCE finish for us. It seems like the Bills had all this hype last year. But when we didn't bring home the hardware, we became yesterday's news. Now the AFCE hype surrounds the Fins and more so Rodgers & the Jets. We lost Edmunds. That's pretty much it. MLB is the only position where we've experienced a downgrade. And, while we might not have been the league leaders in man-games lost to injury last year, our injuries were to our main playmakers: Josh, Miller, White, Poyer, and Hyde. And while Edmunds' loss will hurt, we did add some guys at other positions who will help. I don't get the Fall-of-the Roman-Empire narrative for the Bills. While the hype has faded, I think the reality is still on solid ground.

I'm into the Bills mafia being a Band of Brothers. Though I have to say I stuck by the Bills from John Rouch (7-20), Harvey Johnson (1-13), Jim Ringo (3-20) and so on, up through Rex Ryan. That's probably not a good testimonial to my own intellect.

I agree Beane is a good GM. But, IMHO, any Bills fan calling fellow Bills fans idiots is being idiotic.

I get it. McKenzie was never a high-end talent, and his failures are more his own than anyone else's. I never expected Lil Dirty to be a huge contributor as a gadget guy who could do end-arounds, bubble-screens etc. But smart X-and-O guys can do wonderful things sometimes with guys who possess one-dimensional skill sets. For example, look at the production Chan Gailey got out of CJ Spiller 2012-2013. McKenzie wasn't cut out to be Beasley's replacement. But I do think Dorsey could have gotten a little more out of McKenzie's quickness than he did.

Not "everyone" was sold on Lil Dirty being a legit starter. I was actually hoping Crowder would be the slot guy. Despite the Pats game, I had some doubts about McKenzie. And about Dorsey's ability to use him correctly. Still, I really like McKenzie as a person and wish him the best. And the Pats game was super fun to watch.

Maybe I'm in the minority but I'm actually more optimistic this preseason than last. Here's what I think: QB - Same. Better if you consider the UCL injury. RB - Better OL - Somewhat better, especially on the interior. TE - Significantly better with the addition of Kincaid WR - Better with Gabe being healthy and the addition of Sherfield and Harty DL - Better with the addition of Floyd (I still hold out hope Poona will be a factor, too) LB - Worse. CB - Same Safety - Better with the addition of Rapp I do think there are a ton of questions we need to see answered about scheme, play calling, RBs, OL, MLB, the health of some players, etc. But I had even more questions and doubts last preseason, despite the media hype. We do face a tougher division. I'm not confident that we'll get 13 wins again. But I believe we'll have a stronger squad going into the playoffs.

This is a great point. When you're aiming for a Lombardi, you can't settle for an average OL. The OL is too important. A good/great OL will give Josh more time to throw and receivers to get open; won't necessitate us keeping RBs and TEs in to block; will keep Josh healthy; will allow us to run the ball when we need to run (bad weather, killing the clock), and so on.

I like Cosell and if he was projecting 2023, then I agree with "average, not better." That's my hope anyway: that Beane's additions improve our OL from bad to average. I'm disappointed Shell retired (I liked having an insurance policy for Brown) but still overall excited that this year's line may be better - though Cosell still worries that "pass protection is a little bit of an issue." Cosell was not complimentary of our 2022 OL. He noted, "you don't want to send three receivers against six or seven in coverage," but that, "a lot of times last year, they [the Bills] often had to keep a back and at times a TE in there" to help protect the QB which meant we were sending fewer receivers out. It's a numbers mistmatch (3/4 receivers versus 6/7 coverage guys) when that happens. That numbers mismatch helps explain why Allen does sometimes hang onto the ball too long. It starts with Dorsey's lack of confidence in the OL forcing him to keep extra blockers in. So, yeah, OL has been a problem. www.bing.com/videos/riverview/relatedvideo?q=greg+cosell+buffalo+bills+offensive+line+average+not+better&mid=5029FCE5CEB7BBC0023F5029FCE5CEB7BBC0023F I do agree btw that Dorsey has to scheme up and playcall a better quick passing game. When he sees Allen under siege, I'm not sure why he's calling longer developing plays. It's puzzling why we don't utilize more screens, RB dump-offs, and slants when pass pro has been a problem and opponents often commit to stopping the deep passing game.

I apologize, BW, but I respectfully have to disagree. The Bills line has not been average. That's not what the analytic sites say. And that's not what my eyes tell me after watching the Bills for 50+ years. Sure, sometimes Allen's reluctance to take easy slants or check down forces the OL to hold blocks longer. But often he's off his mark in less than 2 seconds because of an immediate passpro breakdown. We've all seen it: in some games the poor kid is running for his life. Our good offensive rankings are not because of the OL, they are despite the OL. A lesser QB wouldn't be able to sustain drives with the kind of protection Allen gets. The way Allen tries to extend plays is both a blessing and a curse - but far more blessing. Sometimes I think Beane purposely doesn't spend on the OL because he knows Allen is mobile and strong enough to make good things happen even when pass protection breaks down. I believe, whatever the reason, Josh deserves better.

The Basham trade caused a bit of anti-Beane hysteria that I'm glad the OP is trying to correct. But I have to wonder about the methodology that ranks Beane as the NFL's third-best drafter since 2018. It's not as nuanced as DVR, but I heard a GM once say that teams consist of jags and standouts. It's the standouts who get you into the playoffs and to the Super Bowl. You need enough of them, and you need them at the right positions. I'm a simple guy. I like his two-bucket approach. And in my mind, here are our standouts: Allen (draft - Beane) Diggs (trade) Poyer (FA) Hyde (FA) White (draft - Whaley) Milano (draft - Whaley) Miller (FA). The rest of the roster is a bunch of jags of various flavors. I guess you could argue, based on the DVR data, that our jags are incrementally better than the jags on other teams. And we do have to give Beane credit for the free agent acquisitions. Overall, he has built a nice roster. But I do wish he'd find more playmakers in the draft. Only one impact player in six years doesn't get us into the big game.