hondo in seattle

I think the Bills might be very good this year. I also know that I don't know. We won't find out until the games are played. This Jets game will be a hint. Though sometimes season openers are deceiving, so maybe it won't be a hint after all. I figure the Bills have a roughly 10% chance of winning the Lombardi this year. That's good - better than nearly every other team. But it still means there's a 90% chance that I'll end the season with disappointment. In short, I am curious and hopeful and excited. But not anxious... yet. I'll be nervous at the opening kickoff but only then. Not before or after. Which is exactly how I was when I played football in school many years ago.

It's not. A pass is tipped when a defender does something good and the QB does something bad. But what happens afterward sometimes is a matter of luck. Without the defender intending it, the tipped pass might go into a fellow defender's arms for a pick 6. Then again, it might have been an inaccurate throw but the DB's tip knocked it to a receiver who took it for a TD. While both examples are clearly still in the realm of cause-and-effects, I'd classify both as luck because skill and intention didn't produce the result. Anyway, that's how I see it.

I read somewhere that defensive interceptions vary widely from year. Yards-allowed, on the other hand, has some consistency. The best teams last year will mostly be the best teams this year unless there's been a big coaching change. But a team that had a lot of INTs last year will not be likely to repeat that performance this year even if the players and coaches remain. A lot of interceptions are luck.

Belichick is so taciturn and laconic that I can't imagine him as somebody's boyfriend. I just can't see him being warm, charming, romantic, or funny. I wonder how she'll describe him if she decides to go public.

I know I won't change your mind but I'll share my thoughts anyway. Even great generals lose battles. Caesar lost to Vercingetorix at Gergovia. Lee lost at Gettysburg. Patton lost at Fort Driant. Andy Reid is widely considered one of the best coaches in the NFL (an AP poll just ranked him #1). He's also fortunate enough to possess one of the best rosters. But he struggles against McDermitt. He needed the miracle of 13 seconds to pull that playoff win out of his ass. And I was in KC when McD crushed Reid's Chiefs 38-20. I'm sure Reid did everything he could to win that game. When rosters and coaching staffs are equally matched anything can happen and games swing on bounces, tips, referee calls, and players doing something atypically good or bad. And that day, McD came out on top. It didn't mean McD was the better coach. The loss in the playoffs that year didn't mean Reid was the better coach. I don't think there's much of a difference between regular-season coaches and playoff coaches. You study film, develop your scheme, prepare your team. It's not like you're a player under the lights with all the adrenaline and nervousness impacting your physical performance. The 14 best teams enter the playoffs. 13 of them will end their seasons on a bitter loss. With 32 teams in the NFL, there's only a 3% chance of winning it all. Those are long odds. To damn a coach for failing home to bring a trophy is a little harsh. I believe fans who think McD should have won more playoff games overrate our roster. We're typically getting beat by teams with better players.

I really want this to be true. But too many unsettled questions for me to go there. How good will this OL be? Will Kincaid emerge as a star? Now that Motor is gone, how will our RBs perform? Was Gabe's ankle truly holding him back and will he emerge a solid #2? Will Dorsey grow as an OC? Will our safeties return to peak form? Will Tre? Will someone step up at MLB? Will Von have a productive season? And so on...

As Socrates said, 'I know that I know nothing.' I don't know what to expect from Bernard. Or, more importantly, if the Bills will win. That's why they play the game. So I'm just waiting for Monday.

Many people don't use "disingenuous" correctly. It doesn't mean dishonest or inaccurate. It means pretending to know less than you actually do. I don't think that applies to Beane's critics. And I don't think measuring the number of starters is a good way to measure draft success. Every team - even the Texans - is required to have 28 starters (counting specialists). Starters aren't necessarily any good. You need to measure a GM's stars.

Thanks for posting this. So Schatz is on this website now. Did Football Outsiders shut down when he left?

I respect your opinion, but I have to suggest another possibility. We're right in our concern about MLB and Beane settled for the affordable solution. I want a nicer car but it's just not in the budget. Life is like that sometimes. We don't always get what we want.

None of these individually is a huge surprise. But I wouldn't have guessed all of these happening.

Agreed. I was somewhat opposed to the Miller signing. I saw the importance of having an edge guy like Von on the team, of course. But I worried about the cap implications and opportunity cost. We could have built a better OL with that money! In fact, I still complain about the opportunity cost. But, compared to this deal, Von looks like a bargain.

I only barely remember him as a Bill. I guess I can forgive myself - he only had 8 receptions. He was good his first three years in the NFL with Tampa and then his career fell off a cliff. Someone remind me, what happened? In any case, prayers to his family. Very sad. RIP.

I don't remember picking Diggs, but if I did, I must have had good reason so I'm sticking with him! If could pick someone on defense, it would be Leonard Floyd who's going to impact some plays for us.

Maybe because I'm old, I just thought that was weird.

That's not good.

You're probably right. But I think as fans, unless we're Jerry Sullivan, we tend to suffer from confirmation bias and clearly see the things that support our hopes while dismissing the information that suggests a less happy outcome. I try, not always successfully, not to fall into that trap.

I just knew there'd be one guy who would take those words literally instead of as a colloquial expression. Thanks, AE, for not leaving me disappointed.

I'll never root for a player to be hurt. But I will happily accept the consequences if they help the Bills.

I was thinking similarly. I couldn't diagram them but I remember Chan drew up some short passes for CJ to get easy completions and give Spiller some space. I'd like to see that with Cook.

50+ years of fandom have done that to me.

I've suffered from preseason worries about our secondary. On paper, we look great. But our three stars - White, Hyde, Poyer - all had injury issues last year. And the two safeties aren't getting younger. And last season, Tre just didn't look the same after coming back from his ACL. Beane recently said this: "I think Tre’Davious is in a really good spot. You can just see it when you talk to him. He’s confident. You know, the D.A. was a tough deal for him. Was his first major injury. And, you know, not an easy one to come back from, you know, when you’ve never dealt with that. And he’s in a great headspace. He’s really confident. And I see a guy who’s ascending and getting himself back to the Tre that he was pre-injury.” I like the first part of the quote but when Beane says he's "ascending" and "getting himself back," I began to worry again. Is Tre really in a "good spot" or is he still "getting himself back?" www.whec.com/sports-news/brandon-beane-envisions-tre-white-ascending-to-pre-injury-form/

I don't have any stats to support my case and maybe I'm wrong but... Wasn't part of the problem our OL? Opponents were motivated not to blitz by two realizations, (1) Josh was good against the blitz, and (2) they didn't need to blitz to get Josh off his base because our OL sucked. But I do think it's true that Dorsey and especially Josh didn't possess the take-what-they-give mindset. It was a kind of gridiron hubris: we know who we are. We know what we're good at. We're going to impose our will on you.

Maybe I'm not a good talent evaluator but I never saw anything in Boogie's game - not in his college highlights and not in his time with the Bills - that suggested to me that he'd be a productive NFL sack artist. I'm not knocking the guy. He's a good backup. Maybe he'd be a good starter 50 years ago when the suddenness to get to the QB wasn't as prized as much as it is today. I don't know - maybe this season he'll prove to a better fit for what the Giants want. But I don't believe he was ever going to be very productive here.

Robert Saleh isn't Rex Ryan.