hondo in seattle

I was really happy with Beane this offseason. I thought he might have successfully upgraded our OL from bad to average. And I was excited about that. I never imagined seeing something like this.

Whatever it turns out to be, with $50 million guaranteed, the opportunity cost was substantial. We could have signed a Pro Bowl offensive lineman, for example.

Sure, passer rating does measure something meaningful. But most human evaluators of QBs wouldn't put Jimmy Garoppolo ahead of Tom Brady, for example. Because of the methodological flaws posters have noted, the passer rating top twenty is only a rough approximation of the "real" top twenty.

I was a bit critical of the Von signing when it happened. It seemed like a lot of money for a DE on the backside of his career. I felt there were better ways to use our limited cap dollars. Then again, he's still a tremendous player & a team guy, and DE was certainly a position of need. At this point, I guess, it's money under the bridge and I think it'll be fun to see what he adds to this already talented, productive group. Especially with Tre out, it's nice to have guys who can get after a QB.

At the time, I thought it was a great signing in the sense that it addressed a notable need. But I did wonder if it was the wisest way to spend $120 million.

According to Neil Paine's Meta-Power Ratings, the Bills are the best team in the NFL... neilpaine.substack.com/p/2023-nfl-elo-ratings-and-win-projections

This brings up a question other than the Frazier one... Did we need to spend $120 million on Von when we can pressure the QB without him? I love Von. But I'd love a top-five OL, too. $120MM could have bought a lot of beefy bodyguards for Josh.

I don't like either passer rating or QBR. As for passer rating, as I understand it, it's about efficiency and not about productivity. For example, imagine a QB plays an entire game and goes 3 of 5 for 50 yards. The reason he doesn't throw much is because he sucks so the OC doesn't call many passing plays. But because the D is entirely focused on the run, the QB was able to complete 3 of his 5 attempts. Imagine a different QB completes 30 of 50 passes for 500 yards. Statistically, it's the same game: 60% completion rate, 10 y/a, and all that. But this QB was an unstoppable force, throwing on nearly every play and racking up the yards. Passer rating doesn't measure productivity, only efficiency. It would rate the two performances equally. That's like saying a RB with 2 carries for 12 yards had as good a game as a RB who had 30 carries for 180 yards. Both averaged 6 ypc. But one back influenced the outcome of the game in a meaningful way, the other didn't.

Really happy you had a great time and got to witness Bills fandom at two lopsided victories. And I'm glad you got to see all the Buffalonians decked out in Bills colors. I've been to 30 of the NFL's 32 cities and can honestly say that I see more people with hometown gear in Buffalo than anywhere else. Tim Horton's, by the way, was started by a hockey player who played for the Buffalo Sabres for a while. Though the chain is now owned by a Brazilian conglomerate. Vamos los BILLS!

I admit, during the Jets game I was asking myself, "Is this really the best game plan and play calls Dorsey can come up with?" Totally unimpressed. But since then, the Bills have been scoring like Wilt Chamberlain (and I don't mean in the bedroom!).

This is true. But our D made some big plays: 4th down stops and key takeaways. In other words, their O had some critical failures that our O didn't commit.

Josh Allen is his own worst enemy. It's never a matter of arm talent. His bad games are the result of mental errors. Josh can do amazing things under pressure, and often does. But when he faces pressure in a close, lower-scoring game, he tries too hard to make something happen. If Josh's brain was more clinical, surgical, and - I hate to say it - Brady-like, he'd easily be the best QB in the league.

Weirdly, the Fins had almost as many yards as we did (393 versus our 414). But I agree, after the first quarter, it didn't look like a close game. It looked like total domination.

Saw this mentioned on a Fins fan site - Bills were more physical. Awesome to watch! One sequence that impressed me in a weird way... When Tre dropped that pick, even though we had a lead at the time, I thought that games often hinge on missed opportunities like this. Then we recovered a fumble on the very next play. And then I thought, 'This isn't one of those games.' Both our O and D were making too many plays - the Fins had no chance.

I thought we signed Rapp primarily as a backup with Hyde and Poyer maybe getting more injury-prone as they aged. But I also thought Big Nickel could be a thing. In any case, Rapp was a very good signing and I'm very glad we had him yesterday.

My first - and only - game at Rich was the MNF game where OJ got hurt and, shockingly, we won anyway.

I wasn't far off. Floyd and the rest of the DL did effectively disrupt That's rhythm and it was a joy to watch!

Yes, you did predict a Bills victory as many of us did. But you also asserted this: "Dorsey will scheme up a game plan to feed Knox and Kincaid ! Today is Kincaids big day!" I'm not sure you can truly claim that you "called it." Today was Diggs's bid day, not Kincaid's. But enjoy the win. It was a great Bills victory in an early season must-win game.

Anything good or bad that happens on a team, I'm going to attribute to the leader. Leaders own what happens and McD owns 13 seconds. But I don't think we've ever gotten the whole story and without all the facts I'm not sure how much I want to damn the guy. "Colossal blunder"? I don't know. McD took arguably the best team in the NFL down to the wire. He did more things right that day. I was in KC when it all happened and their take is different: two equally matched teams collided, and the game could have easily gone either way. But, as I said, even great leaders have bad days. Caesar blundered at the Battle of Dyrrachium. Look at that battle too hard and you might deem Caesar a poor military leader. Yet he also conquered Gaul and defeated Pompey in a massive civil war. You have to stand back and get perspective.

I agree with most of this, even the part about the Bills having a good roster. I'd be concerned if McD failed to reach the SB with the very best roster in the NFL but that hasn't been the case. Until this year, the offense has been a two-man show (Allen, Diggs) with jags or worse manning the other positions. Our OL was never a SB quality line. Neither was our DL, for that matter, disregarding the beginning of last year when Von was playing. I do worry about your observation at the end about letting good prevent you from being great. But, barring something unexpected happening, I'm happy to ride the McD train for a long while more.

I'm a McD fan (call me an "apologist" if you want) and I won't go apoplectic because I don't lose my cool over people saying stuff online. I do disagree with you, however. Here are some random reasons why... * The fixation on 13 seconds isn't rational. McD has coached the team for more than 360,000 seconds but you want to use those 13 seconds to define him. During those 13 seconds, a great offense executed at a high level, and a couple of Bills players made mistakes. I don't think the game even makes it to OT if McD was a lesser coach. I don't think we even get to that game in the first place if McD was a lesser coach. And, btw, even great generals (Caesar, William the Conqueror, Napoleon, Patton, etc.) had bad days and suffered defeats. Even talented leaders sometimes fail to deliver. * We have not had the best roster in the NFL in any year that McD has been here. I'm not sure why we require him to beat better teams in the playoffs and win the Super Bowl without a Super Bowl-quality roster. * Repeatedly firing coaches doesn't work. I prefer the Steelers model. They've had 3 head coaches over the past 50 years. That stability has given them 6 more Lombardis than we've won. * Statistically speaking, each team has a 3% of winning the Super Bowl - all things being equal. In fact, each year there are maybe six teams with superior rosters/coaching with a roughly 10% chance of winning it all. Thanks to both Beane and McD, the Bills are in that elite group. * McDermott has the highest win percentage in Bills history. Objectively, he's the best of the twenty guys to have the title of Bills HC. * If you fired McD, who would you replace him with? The best coaches (Andy Reid, for example) already have jobs. Most college coaches who are hired to be NFL coaches don't turn out to be very good. Most coordinators who become head coaches don't turn out to be very good. Most head coaches the Bills hire don't turn out to be very good. In other words, it's most likely that McD's replacement will be worse, not better.

Floyd is going to knock Tua out of rhythm.

Maybe you're right. But I always thought that the folks wanting us to sign a big-name RB were the ones who tend to deny the hard realities of the salary cap. As an older guy, let me quote the Stones, "You can't always get what you want." Some people live in denial of this sad fact. The mafiosos in denial want an expensive RB and expensive WR#2 to make our offense even more dynamic. But Beane knows what's up. Passing is ascendant and the cap makes it impossible to get stars at every position. So he's prioritized his cap dollars on QB, WR, DE, and CB. I wish he'd spend a little more on the OL to protect the health of our generational QB, maximize his production, and open up some holes for our bargain-bin, yet talented, RBs. I don't know - maybe wanting to get help in the trenches is old school too. But both Philly and KC had good OLs last season and look where they were on February 12th and we weren't.

I don't know how much money we can afford to spend just on the WR position. Diggs's contract is okay - given what he adds to this team. But, ideally, our next star wideout will be someone we draft.

I can't remember the last time I had that much fun watching our DL. But I find myself wondering... Washington knows Howell tends to hold onto the ball too long and that we have a good DL. So, what plan did their OL coach and Bienemy cook up to protect their QB? There are offensive coaches in the CFL, XFL, USFL, college, and high school. Theoretically, only the very best work in the NFL. And these elite coaches make buckets of money in salary... in this case, to allow their QB to be pressured 69% of the time.