hondo in seattle

I agree our D hasn't been stellar this season and Baltimore is a bad matchup for us. I disagree however when you say this: "Unfortunately our defense playing McD’s bend don’t break nonsense..." Did you see bend-don't-break today? Has that been McD's M.O. over the years? Our defensive roster isn't particularly strong this year. Worse, it's been banged up. So teams, especially power running teams, have been able to move the ball. In a few games, we stiffened up in the red zone which gave the illusion of bend-don't-break. The last time we played the Ravens, it was all bend-then-break. It's not philosophy, it's just how things work out sometimes when you don't have great players on the field. McD's philosophy is to play a lot of 4-2 and disguise coverages to stop the pass first. He tries to stop the run with well-coached players, teamwork, and speed - but not size and power. What he wants is three-and-outs, not bend-don't-break. We're just not talented enough to make that happen all the time.

I underrated our defense again, but my offensive prediction was more or less right.

If you're his parent or friend, it's tragic. If you're one of the victims, it's tragic.

Let's say there's once you reach this level, every game is more or less a 50-50 proposition. At this point, there's roughly a 12% chance that the Bills win the Lombardi. If the 88% probability happens and the Bills don't win it all, McD will be blamed regardless of what goes wrong.

3 of 4 beat writers for the Denver Post are predicting a Bills victory. The lone dissenter wrote this... "Upside? The football gods hate Buffalo, so anything’s possible." He's not wrong. I'm still expecting the Bills to win this one but ultimately suffer the wrath of those gods once again before the SB.

Surtain barely matters. As you say, he takes away the #1 but we don't have a #1. We have "Everyone Eats." Let's say you're right and he covers Coop. Well, Cooper has only been averaging about 2.5 catches per game with the Bills. Shutting Coop down won't decide the game. Surtain's a great cover corner who'll stay tight to whoever he's assigned. So what? According to advanced metrics, our receivers don't get separation. Yet we move the ball and score points anyway.

Offense: Cook Defense: Bernard Bills win.

A simple analysis says this will be close game. The Bills offense scores about 31 points per game. The Broncos D gives up about 18. Average that out and the Bills should score about 25. The Denver offense scores about 25 points per game. Our D gives up about 22. Blend those and the Broncos should score about 24. This simplistic analysis has the Bills winning 25-24. Or perhaps 28-24 when you consider homefield advantage. Curiously, ELO ratings (which account for the strength of the opponent) have the Broncos ranked ahead of the Bills. Yet nfelo does some voodoo math to give the Bills a 72% win probability. I personally already predicted a big Bills win. Call me a homer but I think the Brady-Allen thing is on fire.

My mom was from Paris, and I had horsemeat over there a couple of times, including raw. It was very good - as good or better than beef. A French butcher told us the best horse meat from the US and Canada. I had horsemeat in the US once and maybe it was an old reject from a glue factory because it was awful.

I've had horse meat in France, elk in the Cascades, and even bull penis in a Chinese restaurant once, but never Rocky Mountain Oysters. I'll have to correct that deficiency someday but this weekend I'm sticking to Korean-style Buffalo Wings with a spicy gochujang sauce.

Back in the 70s, the Fins won the Super Bowl with a "No Name Defense." I'd love to see us win the SB this year with a One Name Team.

Watson's life is a Greek tragedy. He was a very talented QB who seemed to be a respectful, courteous, hard-working young hero. But his libido got the best of him and he compromised his morals & ethics. And now his body is failing him. This is a sad - if well deserved - fall from grace. This is also further proof that America is emphatically not a meritocracy. People like soldiers, sailors, police officers and firefighters often work diligently for the public good for peanuts while anti-heroes like Watson get millions.

Even if the two conferences were exactly equal in terms of talent, you wouldn't see the AFC winning exactly 50% of interconference games each year. The world (math, statistics, probability, etc.) just doesn't work that way. Here's the AFC's record against the NFC over the past few years: 2020 .555 2021 .494 2022 .488 2023 .575 2024 .413 Because the sample size each year is relatively small, this doesn't tell us that the AFC was better than the NFC in 2023 but became worse in 2024. Instead, this looks like the two conferences are roughly equal. For example, I flipped a coin 80 times to predict the AFC-NFC results in each of the past five years. Here are the percentages the AFC won (the coin landed on heads) 2020 31% 2021 44% 2022 56% 2023 43% 2024 53% AFC-NFC matchups look a lot like a flip of the coin.

Bills dismantle Broncos vaunted D. Bills 30 Broncos 21

The Pacific Northwest is beautiful but Western Washington gets its fair share of wildfires.

Why do we care what Barnwell - of the 10,000 prognosticators online - thinks? Every year there are weird tips and bounces, bad ref calls, momentous injuries, questionable coaching decisions, guys getting hot while others go cold, and other surprises that makes prediction a farce. No one has a crystal ball. We just have to wait and see what transpires.

I can't say there's no fiery leadership on the Bills now. I'm not in the locker room. Not in the huddle. Not on the sidelines. But Kyle had juice that could only be good for this team. He loved the Bills and willingly bled for his teammates.

I don't know how much our coaches can do schematically. There just isn't enough talent on this defense. But they are good at takeaways. As strengths go, that's a scary one because it's unreliable. We won't get takeaways every game. As you say, the offense needs to keep rolling.

I wish Kyle would discover the Fountain of Youth and suit up for this edition of the Bills. Amazing character and energy.

I thought it was very cool that he painted his truck like that. He's a blowhard and made some questionable decisions during his time with us, particularly in regards to his coaching staff. But he's a generally likeable guy - though I would have liked him a lot more if he had produced more victories.

I wouldn't hire Rex but there's a certain point of view that says he's nearly .500 in his regular season career and over .600 in his playoff career despite never having a franchise QB. I'd guess that's how Rex himself views his accomplishments as a head coach. And he would have a point. It's hard to win in the NFL when you don't have the right guy under center.

I wonder if the Raiders firing of Pierce has something to do with Brady and his desire to make a run at Vrabel before the Pats or someone else snags him.

You're right of course. But I'm greedy. I want the running game to thrive. But I also want Josh to pass for 5,000 yards.

Steelers over Ravens. The Ravens are the team I most want to lose because I think they give the Bills the biggest matchup problems. But these two - Steelers and Ravens - split the regular season. Pittsburgh ended the season in a funk, but they'll rise to the occasion this weekend.

I'm bummed that Allen is throwing for fewer yards under Brady than he did under previous coordinators. Although I realize that Brady isn't working with all-star receivers, I do wonder about his ability to scheme a potent passing attack. Then again, this Bills squad scores. A lot. And that's what an OC is supposed to make happen. So I agree that we should pay him whatever it takes. But the lure of a HC job is more than just money. It's ego, the love of a challenge, the professional gratification of running your own show, etc. Money may not be enough to make him stay.