hondo in seattle

I'm kinda agnostic on Von. On the one hand, I read the quotes about how angry he is and how he's out to prove his critics wrong. As a Bills fan, I want to believe. On the other hand, he had recovered enough to play 12 games last year and all he could produce was 2 tackles and an assist. Over the past 6 years, he's only averaged 4.2 sacks/season. I don't bet, But if I did, I wouldn't take the over.

I'm guessing they were in a situation where they couldn't borrow the money to open the dealership without personal guarantees. Without the guarantees, the effort to buy/build the dealership would have collapsed. Hungry to make the deal happen, Pierce signed the guarantee. It's not clear to me if Peirce was the only one to sign a guarantee. There's nothing criminal or underhanded here. Just a catastrophic business failure. From the sounds of it, Pierce is screwed.

When I was young, I always heard that games were won and lost in the trenches. But I didn't care. I played WR in high school and always focused the skill postions when the Bills were on TV - especially the backs. When OJ played, he commanded the totality of my attention. But over the decades I've seen too many offenses falter because they couldn't protect the QB and/or open holes for the RB. Now I pound the table a lot about OLs. And I've been concerned for a long time that Beane has been neglecting it. But, for maybe the first time during Beane's tenure, I'm not especially worried. I'm starting to think this just might, perhaps by a small margin, be the best OL in front of Josh yet.

Gunner, this is a great recap and analysis. Thanks. One of the things that makes KC special is the three-part marriage of Reid, Spags, and Mahomes. A top offensive mind paired with a top defensive mind for the past 5 years. They've been very fortunate that Spags hasn't found a HC gig. On the field, the offense is led by one of the best QBs in history. The Bills have been one of the league's top teams for the past four years. But I don't think McD is quite as good a defensive head coach as Reid is an offensive head coach. I don't think our group of OCs have been as nearly as good as Reid's DC. And Josh isn't quite as good as Mahomes. Our Big Three just isn't as good as theirs. Frustatingly, they have the best Big Three in the league.

I agree that KC's "elite" coaching staff being better than ours. But I do think McD was dealing with more than having to "start a couple backups." The best players at all three levels our defense were missing (or might have well as been). * Von was still recovering, didn't start, and didn't play well * Milano was out. * Tre White was out. Additionally, if I recall correctly: * Rapp was out * Benford was out. * Spector was out * Bernard was out * Douglas played with a gimpy knee My memory might be a little hazy, but I think I saw Micah Hyde was on the field with crutches at one point. At another point, McD asked a guy in the stands to suit up. Playing against the world's best football team, we had no business being in that game as bandaged and banged up as we were. A team has only so many playmakers and all of our defensive stars were hurt. And if Diggs doesn't atypically drop a critical pass, or if Bassomatic doesn't atypically miss a 44 yarder, it could have been a great upset win for us. It's hard to blame McD for either of those errors. Imagine how the game might have unfolded if all those guys were fully healthy. It would be like going to war with jets, tanks, and drones instead of bows and arrows and AJ Klein.

HappyDays, do you believe that when we've faced KC in the playoffs we trotted out better players? No matter how either of us answer that question, and I suspect we'd answer differently, I do think KC has better coaches. I think they have the best coaches in the league. Both their offense and defense are very coached well. But as excellent as their roster and coaching staff is, we tend to outplay them in the regular season. McD is 3-1 against Reid - despite Reid's excellent staff and players - in the regular season since 2020. McD must have some talent as a coach. KC tends to barely beat us in the playoffs. Two years ago, the playoff game went to OT. Last season we lost because of a missed Bassomatic FG. Both games could have gone either way. These two teams are pretty evenly matched. It's not an utter failure to be very nearly on par with the best team in the league. If we were an NFC team, we'd be losing to them in the SB rather than the AFC playoffs. So how do we get over the hump? We could fire McD. We could fire Beane. We could fire both. Or we could give them time to make the Bills just a little bit better - enough to raise up a trophy.

You may be right. But I'm still not ready to kick McD to the curb (I still believe he can win a SB) and I worry about the new voice. Now if Reid decided forswear the dark side and come to Buffalo, I'd be onboard. But McD, while imperfect, is better than most coaches in the pro and college ranks. So the probability is high that the new voice would be a worse voice, not a better one.

You're right, the Vegas thing means nothing. I'm not sure about McD getting an "A" from the players just because he's a nice guy. It does seems like he has good values and priorities. But he's not the warm and fuzzy type. He doesn't get weepy in pressers like Dick Vermeil did. He's a bit of a cold fish, actually. The take about the Bills winning because McD's good DC and we have Josh on offense is fair and I can absolutely see why you feel that way. Only 1 out of 4 of our OCs have been any good and even Daboll had some issues. The success of our offense has been largely fueled by Josh, not by superior offensive schemes. But I do believe that McD has added value to the offense with the teamwork and comaraderie that he's able to build and his methodical approach to preparation. Still, I'll offer this: If the offense struggles because McD once again hired the wrong guy to run it, I'll help you buy McD a bus ticket out of town.

I've asked myself if McD is Marty Shottenheimer. But Lewis - yikes - that's a harsh comparison! Lewis is barely a career .500 coach who went 0-7 in the playoffs. McD atleast wins roughly half of his playoff games. One thing I wonder about is if coaching in the playoffs is any different than coaching in the regular season. Are there guys who coach better in the playoffs than in the regular season? Are there guys who coach worse? The answer is probably "yes" to some degree but I have trouble seeing it. I think most coaches have more or less the same practice field sessions during the playoffs, the same position group film reviews and meetings, the same game planning process, etc. And I think McD is a good enough at this stuff that with Josh as his QB and some other healthy, talented players, he can win it all. I really want you to be wrong, too. Only time will tell.

I agree with this. I think there have been times in the regular season that McD overperformed. For whatever reason, I can't say that about the postseason.

Wow! Where's my check? Though I'd rather be on the losing end than the winning side. You don't get sued for $4.7 billion unless you can.

DrD, I agree with many of the opinions you post, just not this one... If McD is such an inept botch artist, why does he win more games than any coach in the NFL not named Andy Reid? Why do players, according to the NFLPA poll, rate McD an "A" (tied for 4th in the NFL)? Why is both our O and D typically rated among the best in the league? Why do bettors in Vegas give him the 7th best chance of winning Coach of the Year this season? Show me a statistic that says McD botches big calls nearly 100% of the time. That doesn't sound like a fair and objective evaluation. That sounds like hyberbole from a person who doesn't like McD. And you mention end of game situations where calls matter. Maybe the calls matter at the end of the game because McD is a good coach who kept us in a game that another coach wouldn't have. The offseason team building and preparations, the game week planning - all that stuff went into us earning the ability to be in close games.

Freddie, this is super granular. It's like walking up to a DaVinci painting and saying, "I don't know why people think this guy is a great artist. Look at the brush struck two inches in from the bottom right corner. It's poorly done!" Sometimes you have to take a step back and look at the whole picture. Even Andy Reid makes mistakes. The big picture view is this: McD is the second winningest coach in the NFL since 2020. Apparently, 30 other coaches have more bad brush strokes. But look - even though a coach is paid to win, a true evaluation isn't quite as simple as looking at wins and losses. You also have to consider roster strength, roster health, how you want to evaluate/weigh playoff performance, and maybe some other variables. You and I will probably judge those things differently, whether or not we agree on the Denver challenge.

If Josh stays healthy and the O fails anyway, I'll blame Beane for creating a cap situation where he couldn't build a better OL or acquire elite talent for the WR room. But mostly I'll blame McD for, once again, failing to get the right OC. When I said McD had options, I mean he could have found qualified folks to interview. And by "qualified," I mean guys with decent resumes who other teams also consider to be OC candidates. Problematically, the very best offensive minds already have OC and HC jobs. But I'm sure there are some good, up-and-coming position coaches with potential who would've loved to come to Buffalo for the opportunity to be Josh Allen's OC. We don't know if McD contacted or interviewed any of them. If he didn't, it was because he was sold on Brady. My biggest hope this year is that McD's judgment is right and Brady supercharges this offense. My biggest fear is that McD is wrong and Brady performs no better in 2024 than he did in 2023.

First part, I personally never gave Brady credit for 6-1. I think the team rallied and McD patched together a viable defense with backups. I don't think Brady was impressive at all last season. I'm hoping he's more effective this year with a scheme that has the concepts he likes, attacks defenses appropriately, and makes better use of Josh's skills. Second part, for whatever reason, McD has never hired a OC with a proven track record. You ask a good question. We went from Dennison, to Daboll, to Dorsey, to Brady. None of these guys could be considered proven. Dennison at least won a SB as an OC but that was under an offensive HC who was the de facto coordinator. Daboll turned out to be a good OC despite his spotty resume. I'm sure McD had some options this offseason. The Buffalo OC position is attractive - unicorn QB, defensive HC, perennial playoff appearances... But whatever choices he had, McD went with Brady. I'm hoping Brady, like Daboll, surprises some people this year but I can't make a strong argument for that being likely. If I was Terry Pegula, my biggest worry about McD wouldn't be 13 seconds or some of the other things McD detractors talk about. I'd be worried about his ability to build a great staff. Both the OC and DC positions have had a lot of turnover. And, so far, only 1 of the 4 OCs did well - and even Daboll had some issues. Josh deserves better. I want Beane to give Josh a great bodyguard (OL) and some elite weapons. I like how McD prepares the team, builds teamwork, and all that but I want him to give Josh a great coordinator.

McGovern was good at pass pro, not so much at run blocking. He might turn out to be a better center. FWIW, Edwards had a higher PFF grade than McGovern last season. In fact, he had a very strong 91.9 grade in the playoffs. When I look at things through the rose tinted glasses of my fandom, I can see reasons to believe this OL might be better than last year's. I really hope that turns out to be the case. One of my biggest gripes about Beane is that he hasn't spent enough money and effort on the OL.

I don't suffer any great heartburn with this list. But Gordon McGuinness is a Scottish guy who's worked for PFF for the past 10+ years. What special methodology does PFF use to evaluate coaches? Or is this entirely subjective? Why should we consider his opinion gospel? Hint: we shouldn't. I wonder if you got a bunch of football, leadership, and organizational experts together and had them examine every team, how would they rank the head coaches. My guess is that there wouldn't be a ton of difference in the top 10. But I think they'd find a huge gulf between #1 and #32.

Here's what AI (Perplexity) projects: Based on the latest information and roster changes, the Buffalo Bills' top receivers for the 2024 season are likely to be: Curtis Samuel (WR): As the most experienced receiver on the roster, Samuel is expected to be a primary target. Given his previous success with offensive coordinator Joe Brady in Carolina, he could potentially reach 800-900 yards. Khalil Shakir (WR): After a strong performance in the latter part of the 2023 season, Shakir is poised for a larger role. He could accumulate 700-800 yards. Keon Coleman (WR): As the Bills' top draft pick, Coleman brings size and exceptional contested catch ability. As a rookie starter, he might record 600-700 yards. Dalton Kincaid (TE): While not a wide receiver, Kincaid is likely to be a key target in the passing game. As a "big slot" who creates mismatches, he could potentially reach 600-700 yards. Dawson Knox (TE): With his good rapport with Josh Allen, Knox could contribute 500-600 yards in the passing game. James Cook (RB): As a receiving threat out of the backfield, Cook might accumulate 400-500 yards through the air. Mack Hollins (WR): As a secondary option and special teams contributor, Hollins could add 300-400 yards. It's important to note that these projections are speculative. The Bills seem to be moving towards a more distributed passing attack rather than relying on a single dominant receiver. This approach could lead to a more balanced distribution of targets and yards among these players, as well as others like Marquez Valdes-Scantling. The exact yardage for each player is difficult to predict and could vary based on factors such as player performance, injuries, and offensive game plans throughout the season. The Bills' new-look receiving corps will likely feature a variety of skill sets to exploit mismatches across the field.

I don't agree with PBF on a lot but I agree on this. The reasons for doubt are obvious: we lost our best wideout, another starting WR, and Brady didn't perform well statistically last season. But Brady is reportedly installing his offense with new concepts we haven't seen before. And while we don't have any marquee players on offense beyond our all-world QB, we do have a bunch of pass catchers with complementary skills. A good OC could potentially build a potent offense with this. But there's not a lot of objective evidence to tell us that Brady will be a good OC. Still, I hope. McD chose him above other options and Josh seems genuinely excited about the changes he's installing. Like any fan, I'm really interested in how our motley group of pass catchers will perform - who'll step up and who'll falter. But ultimately the performance of the WR group will depend a lot on Brady and I'm not sure what to expect from him. To me, there is no bigger question mark.

I vaguely remember what it was like to have a manly OL that could push the DL back in short yardage situations. I'm nostalgic for an OL like that.

The Bills Wire was wrong. Follow the link. PFF named him one of the top 32 guards in the NFL and one of the top 100 offensive linemen. They did this despite him not being a guard anymore and earning a crappy PFF grade last season. Nonetheless, I'm hoping he turns out to be a good center.

I don't know what 'people think' so I can't comment on that. But WRs for a crap QB who throws for only 3,000 yards are going to have, on average, less production than WRs playing for a QB who throws for 5,000 yards. That's just math. But the bigger context matters, too. Miami made Tyreek the focus of their offense - and Tua did a good job of getting him the ball. So scheme, playcalling, OL play, other recievers... all that stuff matters. Imagine you're a talented wideout and your forte is speed and the deep ball. But your OL sucks and your QB has a noodle arm so the OC doesn't call long passes. That'll impact your total yards, yards per route run, and a bunch of other metrics. Your numbers won't reflect your talent. But then you're traded to a team with a genius OC, an OL great at passpro, and a QB that excels at deep throws. Suddenly all your metrics become better and you get a Pro Bowl nod. We already have a great QB. I'm hoping, because I'm a fan, that Brady turns out to be the kind of OC that can maximize production in the passing game.

Maybe I was wrong when I said we might miss Morse's line calls. He seems confident and while he doesn't say so directly, it seems like he feels he'll be a better center than guard.

The 271 yards/game is admittedly just a swag. It's the offseason and we don't even know what offense Brady wants to run or who the starting WRs are. A swag is all any of us can offer right now. The context was that Josh has already passed for more yards/game than what I'm guessing. Despite playing with some injuries, Josh has average 265 yards/game over the past 4 years. So it's not crazily optimistic. Josh passed for less than 271 last season because (1) his arm was sore, and (2) the OC position was screwed up, (3) the playbook wasn't built on the optimal concepts with the optimal plays (4) Josh was often throwing into tight windows (Diggs and Davis were ranked 71st and 72nd in yards of separation). Here's more context: when looking at the history of these players, other than Shakir, I'm not projecting big career-high totals. In most cases, I'm projecting roughly their average in catches, yards, and yards/catch. I'm not expecting any of them to do anything that's out of the ordinary in the context of their careers (except Shakir). Our starting WRs this year will probably be Shakir (13.6 yards/target), Coleman (na), and Samuel (7.0). MVS, probably the next guy up, is 8.53 for his career. So I'm not sure why you're saying MVS is a 7.0 to 7.5 guy and we're replacing Diggs and Davis with guys in that range when Samuel is the only top replacement below 8.0. And Samuel was asked to run short routes in an inefficient offense so of course his yards/target were low. We don't know what his yards/target will be in a Josh-led Bills offense.

About Yards Per Route Run (YPPR)... Some feel that we shouldn't have high expectations of Samuel because, despite his speed, he was mostly used in the short passing game and thus had a low YPPR. In comparison, here's how Diggs has performed in YPPR... In 2020, when Brady was Samuel's OC, Samuel's YPPG was 1.93. This was better than what Diggs attained last season. Samuel's YPPG was lower after Brady left. But how many yards a receiver gets per passing play (or per route run) depends mightily on the efficiency of the passing offense. A good QB operating behind a good OL getting good playcalls from a good OC is going to produce receivers with good YPPGs. If you're a good receiver on a bad team that misuses your talent and you have a poor QB operating behind a porous OL, your YPPG is going to suffer. The bigger point is no advance metric can tell us what's going to happen in 2024. We've all seen Samuel play. We all know, more or less, how talented he is. But we don't know how Brady will use him in his offense. In fact, we don't even know what that offense is. Both Brady and Allen say there are big changes coming but because loose-lips-sink-ships, they're silent on details. Maybe Brady will find a way to make optimal use of Samuel's talents. Or maybe Samuel will prove a misfit for what Brady wants to do. No one knows. We just have to wait and see.