hondo in seattle

I don't like the dink and dunk. Then again, Tom Brady got a lot of his yards that way. And defenses like to run 2-high shells to frustrate strong-armed QBs like Josh. In today's NFL, you have to be able to dink and dunk.

Since I'm out of state, for me watching a game in person is an expensive gamble. I have to pay for airfare, hotel, rental car, and tickets. If after all that, the Bills lose, I'm not happy. I just wasted a lot of money. If the Bills win, of course, the math is different. But you never know ahead of time. On the other hand, I always count my Sunday Ticket subscription as money well-spent.

This is a good post. It's also the reason why I'm willing to give Brady the benefit of the doubt. Diggs' lack of production in the second half of the season may have been purely a Diggs thing. It's weird, though. His talent is real and on display in the beginning of the year. What happens later on? I think we'll miss Diggs - but not as much as some of the doom-sayers think. As the season progresses, he's like Cindarella in reverse and morphs into a jag.

Congrats! I wish I could say I'm in better shape than I was in my 20s or 30s! Thanks for the berberine recommendation. I take metformin because Nir Barzilai, David Sinclair, and other longevity researchers take it. But I don't want to be like tech enterpreneur/longevity biohacker Bryan Johnson who takes over 100 pills a day. So I settled on a short list: metformin, NMN, omega-3, and creatine (for sarcopenia). I've read about berberine and have been waiting for more science. I'll take another look. Let me give you a recommmendation in return: Read Outlive by Peter Attia if you haven't already. It's a little too science-y at times and I thought his chapter on mental health was weak, but Attia's got a tremendous understanding of longevity science. His podcast is good, too.

In spirit I agree - though the only way for ESPN to get unfiltered opinions is to tell people they'll be anonymous. Still, I think this guy was probably talking out his butt. Unless he works for the Chiefs, if Allen became a free agent, he'd probably study Allen's tape and then try to sign him for $75m/year. Assuming the anonymous exec is actually somebody in a position of authority, which might be a faulty assumption.

I'm 65. I take metformin off-label as a longevity aid, as well as a variety of other supplements. I eat lots of fruits and veggies. I practice TRE (time-restricting eating) and don't eat from 7pm to 7am. I exercise 6 times/week. I sleep 8 hours/night. I meditate daily. I'm putting up the best fight I can but Father Time is still winning - I run slower than a 3-legged hippo and am probably less graceful.

I'm not sure if Diggs lost a step but he did struggle to gain separation in the second half of the season. As a fan, that makes me wonder. Diggs' slump started about the same time Brady took over. So was it a Diggs thing or a Brady thing? Douglass mentioned Diggs being misunderstood. I think we've heard that from other players, too. So that makes me wonder too. How was Diggs misunderstood? Who was doing the misunderstanding? Was Diggs truly blame-free? Beane has mentioned that the Diggs trade wasn't just about the cap. But he never explained the rest of the story. That makes me wonder, too. This will be an interesting season.

As for the anonymous exec... Maybe he's in an environment where his coworkers gush about Allen so much that he feels like Josh is overrated. Maybe he's in the NFC and only watched 3 or 4 Bills games that weren't representative. Maybe he likes being a contrarian and spewed nonsense to Fowler. Maybe he has a lot of good takes but this one's a *****. Maybe, as Avisan says, he's big on the presnap part of the QB's game and that's not Josh's forte. Maybe he's the food service director at training camp. His bad opinion doesn't impugn all insiders nor does it mean anything to me. It's an anonymous source and, as such, pretty much meaningless. It's like when Rappaport says, "Sources close to the Bills tell me..." Who are his sources? Local media? The taxi driver that drove him from the airport one time? He's paid to deliver content, not evaluate sources. Journalists often don't care about the quality of their sources as long as they have something to write about. If ESPN polled all 32 GMs, and only the GMs, that would be worth reading.

I often think of Walsh, and his reported admiration for Edwards, when I think about the limits of scouting. I was one of the people who put stock in Walch's opinion. I was wrong for that because it turned out Walsh was wrong. But read Walsh's book and then listen to old interviews with him. He's unequivocally smarter than us when it comes to football. And his track record was a good one. But no talent evaluator bats 1.000. There are too many variables and unknowables. You added up your limited data set and came up with a different conclusion than he did with a much larger data set. As it turned out, you were right. It doesn't make you smarter. I thought Haynesworth was a dumb signing by Bill Belichick. I was right. Bill was wrong. It's still true that Belichick is a football genius and I'm a freaking kindergartner compared to him. An expert with a wrong opinion (Walsh/Edwards; anonymous exec/Josh; Belichick/Haynesworth) doesn't negate the importance of expertise. Some doctors are whack jobs who don't believe in vaccinations, germ theory, a round earth, etc. But when I'm sick, I still go to a doctor, not a mechanic. Similarly, if I bought the Bills, I'd hire a coach and GM with good football resumes, not you. No offense. I respect professional expertise and experience. When Covid first emerged in Wuhan, I got curious and searched the internet. I ignored what the reporters were saying and the random MDs they were quoting. I looked for the opinions of virologists and epidemiologists with first-hand knowledge of Covid and they talked about how high Covid's R0 (contagiousness) was. And then I knew Covid would come to the US and it would be a big thing, even though the media was still downplaying it. The same with football. While I learn a lot on this site from my fellow posters, many of whom are far more knowledgeable than I am, if I really want to understand something, I turn to the expert insiders. As for the anonymous exec who said Josh is overrated, I don't know that he truly is an expert insider. He might be some NFC college personnel guy who doesn't watch tape of AFC pros. In any case, in any field, there are folks with odd opinions on the fringes. The mainstream of expert insiders consider Josh among the best and so do I. It's a game of probabilities. Trusting the expert insiders won't always give you the right answer. But you'll get the right answer more often that way than trusting the fan in the stands.

When I watched the product Brady put on the field last year, I wasn't encouraged. When I listened to Brady talk during the offseason, however, I felt encouraged. He seems to have his head on straight and says the right things. But I'm not in the Brady camp until I see a string of good offensive games.

I'm at peace with the fact that I was born a nobody and will die a nobody. But, between those two events, I've had the opportunity to sit in division-level strategy sessions while in the army and planning meetings with C-level execs of multinational restaurant companies. Maybe we've read military history books and eaten in restaurants, so we think we know these fields. But the average guy off the street wouldn't even understand the conversations that the insiders have. There are so many acronyms and so much lingo that it's hard to make sense of the discussion. And the speakers assume that everyone in the group knows certain facts, theories, and concepts that are never explicitly talked about. But if you don't know them, you won't know what the hell is going on. I was an insider in both these fields and even I struggled to keep up sometimes. When I imagine myself in a room with McD and his coordinators, I know I'd be lost at times. The idea that one of us could come off the street and capably run an NFL team is complete hubris. And that's true despite the fact that some guys with poor judgment, weak leadership skills, and/or low IQs have gotten high-level NFL jobs. As has been wisely stated previously in this thread, we tend to overestimate our own abilities while under-appreciating the expertise of the professionals. P.S. GB, I do know you wouldn't get lost in the verbiage talking with NFL scouts. And there are a couple of other guys on this board who have interacted with, or been in, the player evaluation world who could keep up.

I'm embarrassed I didn't think of this right away: Pat Tillman.

Alpha, I posted the offending quote about Josh being overrated Monday in the "Is Josh Allen the best dual-threat QB ever" thread - not that it really matters. It is interesting that intelligent football observers have such divergent opinions on Josh. And kinda cool that some of them have come to Josh's defense. Though, maybe the unnamed exec who knocked Josh was the Bears Senior Director of Housekeeping and Janitorial who doesn't actually watch, or even like, football. Not everyone is going to board the Josh train and I don't care. I just hope that train takes us to the Super Bowl. I'll enjoy that ride immensely no matter who else on the train with me.

It was fun to see Steve Tasker, special teams ace, have a game to remember as a receiver.

I was at the game and it was truly fantastic. But The Comeback is still my most memorable game. Another special game for me at the time was watching OJ break 2,000. The game itself wasn't great, nor did OJ put on a particularly great show. But it was such an incredible achievement. Even the amazing Jim Brown never ran for 2,000. Of course, the memory of that day has been tarnished by OJ's subsequent horrible acts.

I love watching at home because I can see the action more clearly. But I was at Arrowhead a couple years ago when we crushed the Chiefs in the regular season and that was a blast. If every in-person game was that much fun, I'd vote for the stadium experience. But since some games are losses in crap weather, I'll vote for the TV in a close contest decided by a last minute score.

I love Josh and think he's destined for the Hall of Fame. But I also believe he can get better. Tom Brady, for example, was better at presnap reads. That's why he could get the ball out so quickly. I'd like to see more of that from Josh. Josh has said in the past he's not a tape junkie. Maybe he should become one. And you mentioned Kurt Warner. Warner's pointed out in his reviews that sometimes Josh doesn't throw on schedule to the guy the play was designed for. Instead he waits for something better, often scrambling around to buy time. Sometimes this ends with big, highlight-reel throws. Sometimes, though, we end up with sacks, picks, fumbles, and missed opportunities. It's awesome that Josh can - and does - make jaw-dropping plays. But I think many of us want what Brady wants: Josh routinely making routine plays. And then make the hero plays when the situation calls for them. I'm glad this is how Brady is coaching Josh. I was also glad to hear Brady talk about execution. I thought passing game execution was sloppy at times last season. Folks smarter on me (Warner may have been one) have commented on it, too - that some routes were lazy, cuts weren't crisp, etc. Scheme, playcalling, player talent are all important. But their effectiveness is optimized when the team is drilled, Lombardi-like, to execute flawlessly. I hope that's happening. Thanks for embedding the vid. It's a good interview.

Tomsula was, um... different... when he coached in the NFL. But he's now the coach of the Rhein Fire - the reigning European League Football champs - and went undefeated last year. He was incompetent at the NFL level but is seemingly talented at the 'ELF' level. Point taken.

Good post, GB. I agree with everything you wrote but I think it's hard - though not impossible - for a totally incompetent person to rise to the level of GM or HC. I've been in a lot of organizations, civilian and military, and none of them are perfect in their hiring and promotion processes. You always see guys get hired or promoted who shouldn't have been. And capable people, sadly, get passed over. But most organizations do perform in these areas at an above-random level. So, generally speaking, good people rise up the ranks. And let's remember that in the world of NFL coaching - where glory can be found and the income potential is great - there are a lot of talented people vying for the positions. Generally speaking, the best of those get hired as QCs or some other entry level schlep position. Generally, the best of those become assistant position coaches. Generally, the best of those become position coaches. Generally, the best of those become coordinators. Generally, the best of those become head coaches. The path for scout-to GM-works the same way. The morons are being weeded out at every level. But let's say that I'm a young moron - but a very special moron with an angel looking out for me. So I get hired to work quality control. With my angel's help, after twenty years I work my way up to a HC position. In that scenario, I'm probably not a moron any more. For two decades, I've been immersed in football with access to players and data regular people don't have and countless opportunities to learn from good football minds. I may not be the best coach but I'm still smarter at this stuff than any fan in the stands.

Here's how I think about that. The draft is a crap shoot. You may be a scout who studies college players full time for a living but the problem is that you are fully immersed in a world of uncertainty. You can't know for sure which guys will continue to grow their skillset, which guys will develop emotional problems, who will get life-altering injuries, and so on. You're in a predictive business and that's a dangerous business to be in. Imagine a new game at Vegas - if you correctly guess a coin flip, you win $1000. You and I may go on streaks where we win 5 or 10 times in a row. But if we keep playing, we'll win about 50% of the time. An NFL scout has expertise and insider knowledge that allows him to win 60% of the time. Sometimes, when we're on a roll, we're better than him. But over the long haul, he'll win thousands of more dollars. That's how I see the draft.

Nicely done video if not terribly enlightening. The only thing I learned was that both Poyer and Hyde allowed passer ratings north of 100. I knew they weren't the dominant tandem they once were, but I hadn't realized they had fallen that far. I don't bet - but I'd change my ways if I could bet the narrator that the Bills will finish better than 9-8. Last year, Dorsey went into a funk after a good start and about the same time the D was decimated by injuries. And we still won the East. This season: two new coordinators and - I pray to the Gridiron Gods every day - a healthier roster. I'm guessing 11-6.

Brady said in an interview with Eric Wood that the O is working on execution. Glad to hear that. He added, "We want Josh to make routine plays routinely. While Josh is capable of making incredible plays, it's about finding the balance where he can excel without feeling the pressure to do it on every snap." www.youtube.com/watch?v=72VPWZjOQ14&t=7s

Einstein, you are correct in saying that I don't know any coaches or execs. But I do not think they're brilliant. I've listened to, and read, lots of interviews. I'm not sure how some of them finished college with their poor grammar, flawed logic, misusued vocab, and so on. I saw some of Dave Wannstedt's notes once and wondered how this guy could ever be entrusted with a defense. And then there's the example of Matt Millen. But I also know this. When I hear intelligent non-restaurant folks opine about the restaurant industry which I know well, their opinions are usually amatuerish. I feel the the same way when non-military people talk about the military. So I'm guessing that football insiders think fans are amatuerish in our opinions. Well, it's not just a guess because I've heard NFL insiders say so. Could some of us be good scouts or coaches? Sure. If we spent 20 years immersed in the profession, going to seminars, learning from the folks around us, and dedicating ourselves to the craft. We couldn't step into the role of GM or HC off the street and be good at it. It would be hubris to think otherwise.

This is true. I watch games for entertainment, not to evaluate. Sometimes when I watch videos by guys like Kurt Warner, I'm surprised at the stuff he's pointing out that I hadn't noticed when I watched the game live. And it's not just the All-22 better angles. He just sees differently because of his expertise. Coaches and personnel guys are often as smart as Kurt - or smarter - and hang out with guys as smart as Kurt every day.

I agree but with the emphasis on "sometimes." Normally, I think they're smarter than that. But I remember a lot of talk from OBD about EJ Manuel's big hands, as if that was meaningful.