hondo in seattle
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Posts posted by hondo in seattle
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Jason Cole who covers the Dolphins gives the Bills a B+ (2nd highest grade in the AFC).
http://sports.yahoo.com/news/nfl--2013-afc-draft-grades--dolphins-earn-only-a-033857465.html
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Kieth Pough, OLB from Howard and Brandon Kaufman, WR from Eastern Washington look like a good signings:
http://www.nfl.com/d...ough?id=2539643
Kaufman runs a 4.6... not quite NFL speed.
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I think:
1. Kolb
2. TJax
3. EJ
I think Kolb will win the starting job in training camp. However, given his history of injury, they'll keep TJax as an experienced backup. Plus, it will be good to have two vets with starting experience in the NFL mentoring EJ.
EJ will move up to #2 before the end of the season.
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Means absolutely nothing. FWIW, I like Kiper as he was the first of the "draft gurus" that I followed and I bought his book for many years. I just don't think he (or even the NFL teams) know everything. For instance, he certainly hasn't met with many of the players or talked with their college coaches to get the "deep scoop". He does have asccess to many of their game tapes - and I believe that he does study those, but that does not necessarily mean that his evaluations are definitive.
I actually respect Kiper but I agree with Old Timer.
I haven't heard Kipe admit this yet, but other draftniks say they only study 3-5 games of each player. They just don't have the time and resources to attend hundreds of games, look at every game tape, talk to every coach, interview the top players, etc.
There's just no way one freelancer like Kiper will be able to study all the players as thoroughly as the entire Bills scouting department.
Even former pro personnel guys like Brandt just don't have access to the same volume of information that they used to have when they were in the game. None of the draft grades mean anything.
McShay was spitting mad that the Bills drafted Manuel so high. He and Mel, the resident draft experts for ESPN, got their panties in a bunch because 2 of their top 3 QBs were not taken where they projected them. Barkley and Nassib were selected in the 4th round. SO I have to ask these 2 lunkheads...are they correct or the ENTIRE NFL in the assessment and the round they drafted both of these QBs? Hard for them to be humble with such inflated egos.
If the Pats had drafted Brady in the first round, Kiper and McShay would have called it a reach and graded them a "F." If Manuel ends up being a good NFL QB, and a couple other plays pan out, this will be a great draft.
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EJ seems to have more upside. Even if he doesn't work out - many 1st round QBs don't as we all know - I appreciate that we rolled the dice on EJ. Nothing ventured, nothing gained.
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I appreciate the enthusiasm but I think any evaluation of the draft at this time is comical. The truth is that even professional scouts are often wrong. And we fans are mere children compared to them when it comes to our knowledge of college players. How many people here on TBD wanted to draft Matt Barkley and Ryan Nassib in the first round? Apparently none of the professional talent evaluators deemed them to be even 2nd round talents. We fans might get lucky and guess right once in a while. But even the draft grades of Kiper, Mayock, McShay, etc. mean nothing. None of them know how these players will turn out. None of us know.
As a Bills homer, I'm inclined to think it was a good draft because that's what I want to believe. I'm excited because if all these players live up to their potential, the Bills will finally return to the playoffs. But I really won't judge the draft until the season is well under way. And maybe we'll need to wait a year or two to truly evaluate it.
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i love that as an organization the bills are finally moving past the whole marv levy CHARACTER organizational philosophy and actually trying to draft good football players instead of model citizens now
Levy made it clear he was talking about "football character." He wanted guys who would show up on practice on time, work out in the off-season, support their teammates, be accountable, study film, be loyal to the team, etc. He never said he wanted choir boys.
As far as Williams is concerned, I read he was arrested once for underage drinking, once for driving with a suspended license, and another time for a drunken incident when he burglarized someone. The first two sound like "boys will be boys" kind of things. The last one is more problematic but they say he's been trouble-free the past couple years.
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I kind of like J-Gun
+1
I was thinking same thing, especially with Marrone & Hackett borrowing elements of the K-Gun.
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LOL.
He went to Los Gatos High School.
Los Gatos is in your neighborhood. What's the scouting report?
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Every college QB has some bad games. And they all need to learn new skills to make it in the NFL. Manuel is no different.
Picking a QB in the first round is historically about a 50-50 proposition. I don't see any reason to believe Manuel's odds are longer than the historical first round average. There's a lot to like about the kid. There are some concerns as well.
Given Manuel's strength, athleticism, accuracy, football IQ and leadership, I think he's got as got as good as chance of succeeding in the NFL as any other QB in this year's crop. His occasional problems - ball security, decision making - seem very correctable.
I'm not seeing Pro Bowls and Super Bowl in Manuel's future just yet. He may flop. But right now I'm excited. He was a solid pick.
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My hope - not my prediction - is this:
2013: Kolb turns out to be as good as some other teams thought he was at one time. Not only that, he stays healthy. The Bills are productive with Kolb running Marrone/Hackett's QB. EJ learns from the sideline.
2014: Despite Kolb's success, EJ is looking so good in preseason that we have a real QB battle on our hands.
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I wonder if the success of rookie QBs last year alters the way Marrone looks at rookies.
I expect Kolb to start, but wouldn't be shocked to see Manuel under center against the Pats.
Curious that at this point Corp has more votes than TJax.
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Eugene Geno Smith ✔ @GenoSmith_12
Just want to thank all those so called "experts" who say I can't be an NFL QB. Thursday will be a special day but the work has only begun
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Not a myth per se, but other misinformation...
The Bills won't trade down because they're afraid the Jets are going to draft Nassib.
http://profootballta...ke-ryan-nassib/
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Not all the draftniks hate this pick. From Bleacher Report:
"No one really expected EJ Manuel to be the first quarterback taken. Many didn't think he'd even sneak into the first round!
I've been higher on Manuel than most. He's got all of the raw physical tools that a quarterback needs in the NFL, and he'll have a good coaching staff and weapons around him in Buffalo.
They'll probably sit him behind Kevin Kolb for a year or two, but Manuel has a good chance to be the best player from this draft class."
bleacherreport.com/articles/1618244-nfl-draft-2013-results-biggest-winners-losers-from-day-1/page/4
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I'm not sure Nix deserves the benefit of doubt, based on his draft record. But I'll give it to him anyway and be excited we got a QB with the potential to be good.
Average fan = casually watches one game or highlight vid on YouTube and forms strong opinion.
Average draft guru = charts 5 or 6 games and forms strong opinion.
Bills scouting staff = charts every game, talks to all sorts of coaches, then makes pick.
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A lot of people believe Kolb has the skills needed to be a good starting NFL QB if he can stay healthy.
Mayock, Gruden and others believe Manuel can be groomed to be a good NFL QB.
Between the two of them, we should have something. If not this year, then by 2014.
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Wow! Almost nailed it perfectly!
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Thanks for working so hard to get the site back up.
Really wanted to read the reaction to the draft!
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I asked this question before the draft but it takes on new meaning now.
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I liked the trade but was less than excited with the pick at first. I'd been hearing that Manuel possessed a ton of upside but had accuracy problems. Well, you can teach footwork. You might be able to teach a QB how to read defenses. But you can't teach accuracy. I really don't care how strong a QB's arm might be if he can't deliver the ball to the intended receiver.
But I found this article that appeared in the Bleacher Report. Ok, not the best source, but four QB tutors got together and rated the top QB prospects in the draft. Overall, Manuel had the best score. There's some bias because one of the tutors worked with Manuel. Still, 3 of the 4 agreed that Manuel was the best of this year's group.
I'm starting to get excited about this pick. Manuel seems like a really good kid and an enthusiastic student of the game. And Matter's observation about his accuracy is a good one.
P.S. Congrats to the guys who predicted (1) the Bills will trade down and (2) draft Manuel.
http://mastrolepassi...fl-draft-class/
1. E.J. Manuel: Florida State
E.J. Manuel takes the top spot, mainly due to his combination of arm talent and athletic ability. Chris Trotman/Getty ImagesHeight: 6-4 3/4
Weight: 237 lbs.
40-Yard Dash: 4.59
2012: 3,392 Passing Yards, 23 Passing Touchdowns, 10 Interceptions, 68.0 Completion Percentage, 8.8 Yards Per Attempt, 310 Rushing Yards, 4 Rushing Touchdowns
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It's pretty obvious that Nix and OBD are thinking a lot about QB. They've interviewed all the top QBs and Nix has been talking about how important the position is. But this doesn't mean, we'll take a QB with the #8 pick. If the QB Nix has identified is someone they think will last to the 2nd round, I think may go with BPA in Round 1.
I have absolutely no talent for evaluating college talent but I do pay attention to what comes out of OBD. In 2010 and 2011, I correctly guessed our first picks. In 2010, for example, Nix was talking a lot about the importance of play-makers. Either Nix or Gailey mentioned something about 'waterbug' (was that the expression?) type RBs. It wasn't hard to guess they were looking at Spiller. I was wrong in 2012 - but Gilmore was not a shock.
But this year I'm mystified. I will say that if the Bills don't pick a QB in the first two rounds, I'll be shocked. I'm just not convinced - given the QBs available - it will be Round 1. And I don't have a read on how much faith OBD has in Kolb. They might be a little more patient with a QB pick now that Kolb is here and we can theoretically take the time to groom someone.
So let me crawl far out on a limb here: With a mere 22.23% confidence, I'm guessing Geno Smith with the #8 pick. But it could be another QB, or a WR or an OL or someone else. Tonight - and this weekend - will be very interesting.
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Spiller is a great back if used right. And while Freddy is getting old, I don't think he's getting fragile. Football is a violent game and there's always a chance a player will get hurt. But I don't think Freddy's chances of getting hurt this year are any greater because he's been hurt the last couple. Choice isn't awesome be he's a good #3.
With only 6 picks, there are bigger fist to fry.
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I ignored need completely because we honestly have a need at every single position save 1 or 2.
Honey Badger is a 1st round talent, not bad for a 3rd round pick.
Same goes for Lattimore, he is a top 15 pick without the injury. He will sit out this season, and be back for 2014, which is perfect because Freddie will be spent after this season in all likelihood.
And TE is one of the most important positions in the NFL these days
I respect your opinion but disagree. I expect the Bills will take a QB in the first 4 rounds (but have no idea which QB) and will not pick a TE. Just my opinion.
If they don't pick a QB, I will be surprised how much faith they're showing in Kolb.
Bills trade Kelvin Shephard
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
+1
Shep was accomplishing nothing. This trade may not help us, but it can't hurt much. It was worth the roll of the die.