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I agree. In fact, I started a thread on this very same subject yesterday. http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/155256-exhaustive-qb-search/

Oops... I did screw up the probability - not sure what I was thinking. And my by-round odds were probably optimistic in the first place. Both observations reinforce the case for acquiring multiple QBs. Even if we drafted two, our chances of not finding the right guy are considerable. A 31% probability - if your assessment is right - is pretty bleak but far better than 17%.

I've always thought like you. But good QBs are a rare commodity. Other positions are easier to fill through free agency, trades, and lower round draft picks. For example, the Seahawks got their starting RB (Lynch) for a 5th round draft pick. You don't get a good starting QB that cheap. For the most part, you draft them.

Sorry, I somehow I missed your excellent post. You provide a great analysis that reinforces the argument that - probabilities being what they are - we need to draft more than one QB this year. Then maybe get a guy with experience as an emergency backup in case the rookies don't make it.

Yep! When it comes to the HC search, I am drinking the Kool Aid! I believe Brandon, Nix and Whaley began their due diligence weeks - if not months - before releasing Chan. They had already talked to people about their candidates, studied film, etc. So they were hot and ready to go when Black Monday came. The only thing left was to do the interviews and they got those scheduled quick. I'm glad they struck before someone else could nab their man. But that's not the point of the original post. The Bills haven't had a good QB since Kelly. Todd Collins had a good game once - as the back up for another team. Doug Flutie played well sometimes - in the 4th quarter. Rob Johnson threw some NFL caliber passes when he wasn't taking a sack. Bledsoe played some good games before crashing. Trent Edwards completed a high percentage of check downs. JP tossed some beautiful long balls to Lee Evans but couldn't complete a screen or down-n-out. Fitz had a streak last year when he completed a lot of underneath stuff and a few jump balls. But none of these guys ever become our franchise QB. I'm tired of waiting for the next Kelly. As we all know, it's hard to make the playoffs when you don't have a good QB. So I want us to really commit our resources to finding one this year. While I am happy with the HC search, I'm hoping OBD gives me reason to drink a little QB Kool Aid too this offseason!

Russ Brandon said that their HC search was "exhaustive" and I believe him. But what about the QB search? A few posters here have suggested the Bills draft two QBs in this draft and I agree. Our QB search needs also to be "exhaustive." 20% to 50% of 1st round QBs become 'franchise quarterbacks' - depending on your definition of a 'franchise QB' and what time frame you look at. To look at it another way, only about 30% or so of QBs picked in the first round will ever accomplish enough to play in a Pro Bowl. At best, getting a good QB in the first round is a 50-50 proposition. Getting one in later rounds has even longer odds. I don't want the success of the Bills to hinge on a coin toss, at best. For the sake of argument, let's say a first rounder has a 50% chance of success and a 2nd rounder 30%. If we draft a QB in both the 1st and 2nd round, our chances of at least one of the QBs succeeding is now statistically 85%. This is similar to what Seattle did last year. They acquired Matt Flynn but drafted Russell Wilson to stack the odds in their favor. We need to stack the odds in ours. To compensate the rawness of two rookie QBs on the roster, we should furthermore trade for Flynn or Alex Smith if either are truly on the market. Or go after an experienced FA like TJack or Matt Moore. QBs are more important than ever in today's NFL and I'm hoping OBD goes after this position hard this off-season. http://thedctimes.co...il-for-success/ http://bleacherrepor...eed-for-success http://aol.sportingn...disappointments http://articles.sun-...ft-josh-freeman

Good article. The first two lines say it all.... Former 2007 No. 1 overall draft pick JaMarcus Russell is training for an NFL comeback. We'll wait until you stop laughing ... And if that isn't enough info, how about this... The former Oakland Raiders quarterback, who hasn't taken a single NFL snap since 2009, told Yahoo! Sports he's dropped from 320 pounds to 308 pounds and is ready to bury past criticisms. Wow. He lost 12 lbs. He's really serious this time. At least he knows the problem... "People would say (that) I didn't love the game but that pisses me off. People don't know the real you but I want people to know the real me..." Yep, all his actions since he left college scream he loves the game.

I really don't get why so many people are saying the Bills HC search was not "exhaustive." Unless you have inside knowledge, how do you know? I have to assume OBD began their due diligence weeks - if not months - before Chan was canned. They probably studied game tape of the various HC candidates and talked to people who knew them. The interviews we know about are just the tip of the iceberg. Just look at the interview schedule. Russ and the guys hit this with a sense of purpose. They knew just who they wanted to talk to and what questions they wanted to ask- because they had already done extensive homework. Before Chan was even fired, the search could be deemed "exhaustive."

Yep, the author of that NFP article says Nassib is worth a #1 pick. But in the same edition of National Football Post, they rate Nassib the 10th best QB prospect and have the Bills taking Glennon at #8 in their mock draft.

Haste? OBD did plenty of due diligence BEFORE Gailey was fired (I'm assuming). While they liked Marrone from the get-go, they interviewed him 5 times before hiring him. Who else should they have interviewed? Once they found their man, they hired him before someone else did and we ended up with dregs again. Hands off? So what? This means nothing. Some coaches and teams are more transparent that others. I don't really care. I just want wins and I don't think there's any correlation between transparency and win-loss perception. Bottom line, I agree there's not a lot to get excited about. None of the available candidates made me excited. All of them - Chip Kelly included - have question marks and concerns. I just don't see any reason for skepticism either. I think Russ, Nix, Whaley and the staff did massive amounts of homework on their list of candidates. And, based on that, Russ believes they got the right guy to turn the team around. Dungy or Cowher would have excited me. But given the realities of our options, I'm good with Marrone. I would have been depressed if we had kept Chan & Wanny. Now I'm thinking, "Well, at least there's a chance the sun might rise tomorrow."

Mickey Loomis, Herm Edwards, Drew Brees and Sean Payton have all praised the Bills for hiring Marrone. But all these guys have worked with Marrone and, presumably, like him. Their objectivity should be questioned. But Peter King called Marrone a "good hire" and provides some very good reasons why he thinks so: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/nfl/news/20130108/doug-marrone-bills/ And Jon Gruden - who I don't think is beholden to Marrone - had this to say: "I would be really excited if I was a Bills fan. This is a guy I have been studying for a long time. I competed against him when he was the offensive coordinator for the Saints. He is a tough, hard-nosed and detailed coach. Really has a good command for the game and is really good teaching the game. What he did at Syracuse speaks for itself. He turned that program around. "I think he is on the cutting edge offensively. He has a vast football background if you just check where he comes from and the kind of people he is able to acquire in terms of his staff. I think he did an excellent job at Syracuse of developing young coaches and surrounding himself with a really good brain trust. I expect him to do the same in Buffalo. I think it is a great hire. "I think he is going to win. I think he is going to get the Bills back in the playoffs soon. Obviously, I think Buffalo is on the right track. Buddy Nix did an excellent job acquiring players. I think they are on the right track, but I think Coach Marrone is the kind of coach that can push you over the top. He has won everywhere he has been. I think he is going to continue to do that. He will find a way to get it done." http://blogs.buffalonews.com/press-coverage/2013/01/drew-brees-jon-gruden-among-those-praising-doug-marrone-hire.html?ref=brp No one knows if turn the Bills around. But if smart football folks like Gruden and King think he can, then I don't think we can criticize OBD a lot for this hire.

Okay, I'll bite. According to Football Outsiders (since we Buffalonians are all into analytics now), Morris hasn't been very successful since he left the 49ers after the 2003 seasons.

JW... You are my favorite author of Bills articles. You are informed, objective and possess good writing skills. But I can't share your recent skepticism. Regards the "no stone left unturned" comment. I'm giving Russ and Buddy the benefit of the doubt on this one. I assume they began their due diligence weeks - if not months - before the season ended. Over time, they whittled down the list till they were left with the names we know they actually interviewed. Considering neither Cowher, nor Dungy, nor Gruden were coming out of retirement to take over the Bills, it was a solid list of names. Personally, I'm happy with the choice. The more "proven" guys weren't compelling options. Lovie has only been to the playoffs 3 times in the past 6 seasons. Whise didn't make it once in the past 3. These guys aren't Lombardi. They aren't even Levy. Marrone could be - it's a roll of the dice. And as an outsider looking in, Marrone seems a safer roll of the dice than Chip Kelly. As for Brandon 'marketing' the coaching staff. Of course, Russ is doing this. He's a marketer. It's what he does. The more successfully he sells the coaching staff, the more tickets he sells, the greater the chances the Bills remain in Buffalo. Even Peter King sounds more optimistic about the Bills than you do. I do recall a few people - Bill Cowher noticeably amongst them - praising the Bills move in hiring Chan to lead the team 3 years ago. But it seems to me that Marrone's hiring is getting far more positive buzz from the greater football community. The people who know Marrone seem to genuinely believe he'll be a good HC. I'm not especially optimistic or pessimistic because I personally don't know enough about Marrone, Pettine, et al to confidently predict the outcome of their hiring. I am happy, though, that Brandon & Nix made some much needed changes. And there are enough reasons to believe the new coaching staff will succeed where the old one failed that I'm excited to see what 2013 might have in store for us.

I agree that Hackett will be getting a lot of help from Marrone. But Marrone says he sees himself as the "CEO" of the Bills, meaning he'll spend significant time with the D and ST. Lots of OC's work 12/14/16 hour days. It's a labor-intensive job. We have a rookie coach doing OC duties and the QB Coach job at the same time. Seemingly, something is being sacrificed. Maybe Marrone sees the QB Coach position as superfluous or perhaps even counter-productive (if the QB Coach isn't 100% in synch with OC).

I'm okay with Hackett - despite his inexperience - being the OC because I'm trusting Marrone to mentor him. However, double-duty is a lot for a new, young coordinator. Someone like Frank Reich would have added some seasoned experienced, provided good advice and taken some of the load off Hackett. For the sake of argument, let's say we start a rookie at QB next year. Can Hackett develop the young kid's skills and NFL know-how while trying to outwit the likes of Bill Belichick in a game of X's and O's?

I read it somewhere that Hackett will do both - don't recall where.

Reich was just hired by the Chargers to be their new QB Coach and work with Philip Rivers. http://profootballta...-staff/related/ I would have been happier if the Bills had hired him. Given Hackett's miniscule NFL experience, I'm not thrilled that he's doubling as OC and QB Coach. Reich's experience could have been a great addition.

From CBC Sports, October 2... --Special teams coordinator Danny Crossman's performance has come under fire after Detroit became the first NFL team since at least 1940 (STATS LLC does not have records predating that year) to allow both a punt return and kick return for a touchdown in consecutive weeks. Running back Stefan Logan, whose role with the Lions centers around special teams, says players believe Crossman is still the right man to coach the unit. "Everybody's going to say what they're going to say about him, but he's our coach," Logan said. "We back him 100 percent." Logan did admit that there could be changes to the kick coverage lineup. "We'll see when we look at the depth chart Tuesday if they move some guys around," he said. "I'm sure coaches are going to make some corrections." Schwartz said after Sunday's game that replacing Crossman was not a consideration.

Good research to support your case. You've made me a feel a little better about this announcement. I'll give the guy the benefit of the doubt for now.

Fontes went 66-67 in the regular season. Even factoring in Barry Sanders, I still think that record is counted as a successful one in Detroit.

+1 OJ was a once-in-a-lifetime athlete. He might have been remembered as the greatest RB ever except for the ineptitude of Rauch and Harvey Johnson who misused him his first few years in the league. Oh, and those killings didn't help OJ's rep either. It always bugs me when I see some "Greatest RBs of All Time" list and OJ is something like #8. But I get it. Jim Brown deserves to be #1 he had more great years than OJ thanks in part to bad Bills coaching at the beginning of OJ's career. But I don't know that any player was as dominant as OJ was in his prime. The year OJ had 2,000 (with Lou Saban as coach), only four players had over 1,000 and none were over 1,200 as I recall. Adrian Peterson doesn't compare to OJ. But to get back on topic, the Bills have had several coaches worse than Chan: Rauch, Johnson, Bullough, Ringo, Stephenson. I would consider Greg Williams and Mike Mularkey almost as bad. I would, however, rate DJ better. DJ had arguably less talent than Chan and finished with a higher win percentage. We;ve been cursed with some truly horrible coaches. But Chan doesn't deserve to be on the worst 50 list. On our team, we can offer up Jim Ringo at 3-23 and Harvey Johnson at 2-23-1 amongst others for consideration long before Gailey.

On the one hand, I hate to mess with tradition. On the other hand, the term is mildly offensive. I don't believe we should needlessly continue to offend anyone. The new nickname would eventually seem normal and inspire the same kind of passion that the current one does among team fans.

Obviously, it's easier to improve something that's bad than something that's good. Still, I think it is worth pointing out, as you did, that Marrone had a bigger impact on Syracuse than Kelly did on Oregon. It's hard to say what Marrone would have accomplished had he'd been hired by Oregon instead. I think the important thing for us is that Marrone is more NFL ready - both psychologically apparently and resume-wise.

This is why I'm glad the Bills mostly follow the cash-to-cap philosophy. Of course, another negative to the Jets GM job besides the salary cap problem is the status of Rex Ryan. Having an untouchable head-coach limits the GM's power and probability of success.

I agree. McKelvin has the athletic ability to perform at the NFL level. Let's see if new coaches can help him live up to his potential.