hondo in seattle

I wonder if the success of rookie QBs last year alters the way Marrone looks at rookies. I expect Kolb to start, but wouldn't be shocked to see Manuel under center against the Pats. Curious that at this point Corp has more votes than TJax.

Eugene Geno Smith ✔ @GenoSmith_12 Just want to thank all those so called "experts" who say I can't be an NFL QB. Thursday will be a special day but the work has only begun 12:18 PM - 23 Apr 2013

Not a myth per se, but other misinformation... The Bills won't trade down because they're afraid the Jets are going to draft Nassib. http://profootballta...ke-ryan-nassib/ http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2013/04/25/bills-reportedly-fear-jets-could-pick-qb-ryan-nassib-what-about-geno/

Not all the draftniks hate this pick. From Bleacher Report: "No one really expected EJ Manuel to be the first quarterback taken. Many didn't think he'd even sneak into the first round! I've been higher on Manuel than most. He's got all of the raw physical tools that a quarterback needs in the NFL, and he'll have a good coaching staff and weapons around him in Buffalo. They'll probably sit him behind Kevin Kolb for a year or two, but Manuel has a good chance to be the best player from this draft class." bleacherreport.com/articles/1618244-nfl-draft-2013-results-biggest-winners-losers-from-day-1/page/4

I'm not sure Nix deserves the benefit of doubt, based on his draft record. But I'll give it to him anyway and be excited we got a QB with the potential to be good. Average fan = casually watches one game or highlight vid on YouTube and forms strong opinion. Average draft guru = charts 5 or 6 games and forms strong opinion. Bills scouting staff = charts every game, talks to all sorts of coaches, then makes pick.

A lot of people believe Kolb has the skills needed to be a good starting NFL QB if he can stay healthy. Mayock, Gruden and others believe Manuel can be groomed to be a good NFL QB. Between the two of them, we should have something. If not this year, then by 2014.

Wow! Almost nailed it perfectly!

Thanks for working so hard to get the site back up. Really wanted to read the reaction to the draft!

I asked this question before the draft but it takes on new meaning now.

I liked the trade but was less than excited with the pick at first. I'd been hearing that Manuel possessed a ton of upside but had accuracy problems. Well, you can teach footwork. You might be able to teach a QB how to read defenses. But you can't teach accuracy. I really don't care how strong a QB's arm might be if he can't deliver the ball to the intended receiver. But I found this article that appeared in the Bleacher Report. Ok, not the best source, but four QB tutors got together and rated the top QB prospects in the draft. Overall, Manuel had the best score. There's some bias because one of the tutors worked with Manuel. Still, 3 of the 4 agreed that Manuel was the best of this year's group. I'm starting to get excited about this pick. Manuel seems like a really good kid and an enthusiastic student of the game. And Matter's observation about his accuracy is a good one. P.S. Congrats to the guys who predicted (1) the Bills will trade down and (2) draft Manuel. http://mastrolepassi...fl-draft-class/ 1. E.J. Manuel: Florida State E.J. Manuel takes the top spot, mainly due to his combination of arm talent and athletic ability. Chris Trotman/Getty Images Height: 6-4 3/4 Weight: 237 lbs. 40-Yard Dash: 4.59 2012: 3,392 Passing Yards, 23 Passing Touchdowns, 10 Interceptions, 68.0 Completion Percentage, 8.8 Yards Per Attempt, 310 Rushing Yards, 4 Rushing Touchdowns

It's pretty obvious that Nix and OBD are thinking a lot about QB. They've interviewed all the top QBs and Nix has been talking about how important the position is. But this doesn't mean, we'll take a QB with the #8 pick. If the QB Nix has identified is someone they think will last to the 2nd round, I think may go with BPA in Round 1. I have absolutely no talent for evaluating college talent but I do pay attention to what comes out of OBD. In 2010 and 2011, I correctly guessed our first picks. In 2010, for example, Nix was talking a lot about the importance of play-makers. Either Nix or Gailey mentioned something about 'waterbug' (was that the expression?) type RBs. It wasn't hard to guess they were looking at Spiller. I was wrong in 2012 - but Gilmore was not a shock. But this year I'm mystified. I will say that if the Bills don't pick a QB in the first two rounds, I'll be shocked. I'm just not convinced - given the QBs available - it will be Round 1. And I don't have a read on how much faith OBD has in Kolb. They might be a little more patient with a QB pick now that Kolb is here and we can theoretically take the time to groom someone. So let me crawl far out on a limb here: With a mere 22.23% confidence, I'm guessing Geno Smith with the #8 pick. But it could be another QB, or a WR or an OL or someone else. Tonight - and this weekend - will be very interesting.

Spiller is a great back if used right. And while Freddy is getting old, I don't think he's getting fragile. Football is a violent game and there's always a chance a player will get hurt. But I don't think Freddy's chances of getting hurt this year are any greater because he's been hurt the last couple. Choice isn't awesome be he's a good #3. With only 6 picks, there are bigger fist to fry.

I respect your opinion but disagree. I expect the Bills will take a QB in the first 4 rounds (but have no idea which QB) and will not pick a TE. Just my opinion. If they don't pick a QB, I will be surprised how much faith they're showing in Kolb.

The media is also reporting that both the Bills and Jets are trying to trade down. Apparently neither club is all that enamored with Nassib after all. Or maybe the football media just doesn't actually know what NFL teams are up to.

You make a good point. But do you really think they openly reveal everything to Chris? I bet they err on the side of safety, concerned that something may leak that they don't want leaked. I would think a lot of information at OBD is shared on a need-to-know basis only.

I don't think Chris is as informed as many think he is. Yeah, he works at OBD and hears lots of things we never will. But the personnel and coaching staffs know Chris talks with the public. So I think (1) sometimes they tell him stuff they want to reach the public domain, (2) sometimes they keep secrets from him, and (3) sometimes they might even feed him misinformation, particularly around draft time.

With "as many holes as we have," do you really think OBD will prioritize taking a TE and then take a RB in the 4th?

We haven't heard anything for a while. Did Karlos come and leave without a contract? Did we not make an offer? Or offer too little? Does he just not like Buffalo?

Bandit, great job! Cogent, persuasive 2-3 sentences justifying your prediction for each team. You should publish this. It will be interesting Thursday night to compare your accuracy versus Kiper, McShay, Mayock, etc.

I listen to the "experts" because they know way more than I do. Kiper, McShay, et al do a lot of film study and probably talk to a lot of scouts and coaches. Some of the draft gurus are actually former NFL scouts and GMs. But NFL franchises have entire scouting departments. And the resources of the franchise allow them to edit video, tabulate statistics, talk to people, etc. in a way that Kiper and the boys can't match. I actually think Kipe would be a good regional scout if his ego didn't get in the way of carrying out someone else's program. But I doubt if many take what he says as gospel. Projecting the NFL success of college players is tricky business and going by Kiper's big board, I don't know if his success rate would have been better than any NFL GM's except for maybe Matt Millen's.

With all their other needs, I don't really expect them to draft a TE with one of their 6 picks. I do think Safety is a possibility, especially considering this draft is supposed to be strong in Safeties.

Kelly, if you were actually smarter than Kiper, you'd be making multi millions working for the media. Kiper is correct on about half of his predictions of the first half of the first round. His success rate falls precipitously after that. This doesn't sound great but predicting what 32 GMs will do is difficult and most media draft gurus are right even more infrequently than Kipe.

I mostly agree... and will add that the Bills Offensive Line usually didn't get much of a push on 3rd and short situations. It was concerning. And now we've lost Levitre.

So how to pass effectively? Give your QB time to throw. How to stop the opponent from passing effectively? Don't give him time to throw. The trenches still matter. It took me a long time to acknowledge Brady was a great QB because every time I watched the Pats play, Brady had all freaking day to throw the ball. Almost any NFL QB will look good when he has enough time to crochet a sweater back there.

I think analytics do account for most of these qualities to a certain extent. A QB's stats wouldn't be as good if he wasn't good at these. But, to support your argument, metrics can't measure leadership. Nor do they fully account for how much the QB's stats benefit from the coach's scheme.