hondo in seattle

It's hard to evaluate Nix because even good GMs have good years and bad years. No GM is 100% perfect on all their coaching, FA, and drafting decisions. Nix screwed up with the Gailey hire. Gailey screwed up with his DC hires. That's all true... but all things of the past. Nix may have redeemed himself with the Marrone hire. In other words, I agree Nix has shot himself in the foot with some of his decisions. I'm just not sure yet that the wounds are fatal. We might be heading up now.

At first I thought maybe a team scout was feeding Nawrocki bad information so he his stock would drop, thus allowing the team to draft him. Now I'm starting to feel, "Where there's smoke, there's fire." Enough different people have similar evaluations and observations that the Jets should be concerned. I was surprised by the EJ pick, but in hindsight I'm happy.

Everyone says we reached for EJ because many of the bigger name draft gurus rated him lower. However, we don't know where the rest of the NFL rated EJ. I suspect he was higher on most franchise's boards than he was on Kiper's. I doubt if Chip Kelly and the Eagles, for instance, thought we reached. NFL teams watch far more game tape and do far more due diligence than Kiper or any other hobbyist. What I read before the draft was the EJ was a good kid, very athletic, but inaccurate. That scared me off because you can't coach accuracy. But there's a lot of data out there painting a different picture of his accuracy. Now I'm excited about the pick.

I'm afraid the first half of the sentence is true, and hope the second half is also true.

Freddy and Cookie were both awesome backs. Though they weren't classic UDFAs because they both proved themselves after college in another league before coming to the Bills. George Wilson started his career as an UDFA WR with the Lions as I recall before we picked him up and converted him into a fair safety. But I guess Jason Peters might be our best ever 100% genuine UDFA. If Rogers plays to that level (i.e. Pro Bowl) but displays a better attitude and more loyalty, we all be thrilled.

It's good to see Walker actually add something of value in his blog. The take of the unnamed scout was interesting.

Wow! 13 pages and counting! Incredible interest in an UDFA. It's got me wondering... Who's the best UDFA in Bills history? Btw, let's not forgot Rogers went undrafted for a reason. Apparently scouts aren't entirely convinced his problems are behind him. The chances of Rogers being cut for off-the-field behavior might be greater as the chances of him being a productive wideout. Obviously, I don't know the guy and would hate to prognosticate the worst for anyone. But we need to be realistic. (Then again, at this time of the year, maybe we don't!)

I would take Kolb/TJax/EJ over Fitz any day. Kolb's started so few games in the NFL that it's hard to gauge his potential but he seems to have a wider range of skills than Fitz. In limited action on a bad team with a bad O Line last year his QB rating was higher than Fitz's. TJax, despite injuries, played better in Seattle than he did in Minnesota so he might still be learning. As it is, his career QB efficiency rating is nominally better than Fitz's. And we're all hoping that EJ has a higher ceiling than any of these guys. We'll find out. I just don't understand why anyone would think our QB situation is worse this year than last. At least we finally have reason for hope. With Fitz, we knew his limitations - and so did opposing defenses.

I disagree. I think Bobby April (ST) and Perry Fewell (DC) were good coordinators. I think Dick Jauron was one coordinator away from having a good staff and retaining his job.

I notice that Buffalo was 7th in the NFL in broken tackles. Apparently, we have/had some dynamic playmakers. We just needed someone to hand them or throw them the ball.

Joique Bell had more broken tackles per touch than either CJ or Marshawn.

8-8 There are so many personnel and coaching changes that it's hard to evaluate 2013. You have to, for example, project whether or not Kolb or EJ will be better running Marrone's offense than Fitz was running Gailey's? Will Manny Lawson and Alonso be more effective linebackers in Pettine's system than last year's LBs were in Wanny's? With a bunch of new WRs running plays we haven't seen before, will our QB - whoever it may be - have legitimate targets? I have a ton more faith in Pettine than Wanny. And I think Marrone/Hackett will be an upgrade over Gailey. I expect Kolb to start on opening day and I think he'll do better than Fitz played last year. Overall, I think the changes are more positive than negative so I predict a slightly improved record.

I'll be honest. Usually when I grade a Bills draft, I'm wrong. As an optimist, I usually grade us an "A" - which I did this year as well. It's been a long while since the Bills actually deserved an "A." So now that I've destroyed my credibility, let me explain my grade. We needed to roll the dice on a QB and EJ seemed like a good choice. Yep he has flaws. But I read one scout explaining that pretty much no college QBs have all the skills necessary to excel in the NFL. So you have to guess which will develop those skills and which won't. Let's hope EJ does. And even the later picks at least have the measurables. I hate when we pick 220 lb linebackers or a 4.7 WR who we know will never be starters. This year's later picks (and at least one UDFA) at least have the measurables to start in the NFL, if not all the skills. By the way, even Kiper, McShay et al. are often wrong in their grades, too. I'm in good company.

+1 Shep was accomplishing nothing. This trade may not help us, but it can't hurt much. It was worth the roll of the die.

Jason Cole who covers the Dolphins gives the Bills a B+ (2nd highest grade in the AFC). http://sports.yahoo.com/news/nfl--2013-afc-draft-grades--dolphins-earn-only-a-033857465.html

Kaufman runs a 4.6... not quite NFL speed.

I think: 1. Kolb 2. TJax 3. EJ I think Kolb will win the starting job in training camp. However, given his history of injury, they'll keep TJax as an experienced backup. Plus, it will be good to have two vets with starting experience in the NFL mentoring EJ. EJ will move up to #2 before the end of the season.

I actually respect Kiper but I agree with Old Timer. I haven't heard Kipe admit this yet, but other draftniks say they only study 3-5 games of each player. They just don't have the time and resources to attend hundreds of games, look at every game tape, talk to every coach, interview the top players, etc. There's just no way one freelancer like Kiper will be able to study all the players as thoroughly as the entire Bills scouting department. Even former pro personnel guys like Brandt just don't have access to the same volume of information that they used to have when they were in the game. None of the draft grades mean anything. If the Pats had drafted Brady in the first round, Kiper and McShay would have called it a reach and graded them a "F." If Manuel ends up being a good NFL QB, and a couple other plays pan out, this will be a great draft.

EJ seems to have more upside. Even if he doesn't work out - many 1st round QBs don't as we all know - I appreciate that we rolled the dice on EJ. Nothing ventured, nothing gained.

I appreciate the enthusiasm but I think any evaluation of the draft at this time is comical. The truth is that even professional scouts are often wrong. And we fans are mere children compared to them when it comes to our knowledge of college players. How many people here on TBD wanted to draft Matt Barkley and Ryan Nassib in the first round? Apparently none of the professional talent evaluators deemed them to be even 2nd round talents. We fans might get lucky and guess right once in a while. But even the draft grades of Kiper, Mayock, McShay, etc. mean nothing. None of them know how these players will turn out. None of us know. As a Bills homer, I'm inclined to think it was a good draft because that's what I want to believe. I'm excited because if all these players live up to their potential, the Bills will finally return to the playoffs. But I really won't judge the draft until the season is well under way. And maybe we'll need to wait a year or two to truly evaluate it.

Levy made it clear he was talking about "football character." He wanted guys who would show up on practice on time, work out in the off-season, support their teammates, be accountable, study film, be loyal to the team, etc. He never said he wanted choir boys. As far as Williams is concerned, I read he was arrested once for underage drinking, once for driving with a suspended license, and another time for a drunken incident when he burglarized someone. The first two sound like "boys will be boys" kind of things. The last one is more problematic but they say he's been trouble-free the past couple years.

+1 I was thinking same thing, especially with Marrone & Hackett borrowing elements of the K-Gun.

Los Gatos is in your neighborhood. What's the scouting report?

Every college QB has some bad games. And they all need to learn new skills to make it in the NFL. Manuel is no different. Picking a QB in the first round is historically about a 50-50 proposition. I don't see any reason to believe Manuel's odds are longer than the historical first round average. There's a lot to like about the kid. There are some concerns as well. Given Manuel's strength, athleticism, accuracy, football IQ and leadership, I think he's got as got as good as chance of succeeding in the NFL as any other QB in this year's crop. His occasional problems - ball security, decision making - seem very correctable. I'm not seeing Pro Bowls and Super Bowl in Manuel's future just yet. He may flop. But right now I'm excited. He was a solid pick.

My hope - not my prediction - is this: 2013: Kolb turns out to be as good as some other teams thought he was at one time. Not only that, he stays healthy. The Bills are productive with Kolb running Marrone/Hackett's QB. EJ learns from the sideline. 2014: Despite Kolb's success, EJ is looking so good in preseason that we have a real QB battle on our hands.