hondo in seattle
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Posts posted by hondo in seattle
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I posted the link to Herm's comments about EJ yesterday in the Kolb thread, though maybe it deserved it's own. I guess I'm weak-minded because I feel better when the professionals agree with my opinion that EJ's looking pretty good.
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This is interesting. While not bad compared to the numbers for other teams, our debt to value percentage is higher than I would have expected. I was not aware that the Bills had any debt. Maybe they have loans in connection with the renovations to the RWS?
The operating income number is worrisome, considering that the Bills have a relative low debt to value percentage. If the team gets sold and our debt service increases, it will be difficult to generate positive operating income based on these numbers.
Obviously, anyone bidding on the Bills will consider operating income, debt service, and the long term prospects of the region. That latter worries me regardless of the current debt, revenue or anything else. We really have to hope someone local buys the team who will generate enough profit to justify their heart's longing to keep the team in Buffalo. My hope is that there's already a plan in place and the Wilson estate does not resort to open bidding or makes staying in WNY a requirement. In such a scenario, the sales price will end up making sense and allow the owner some positive cash flow.
If the Wilson estate entertains bidders from around the country, you're right, the business case for staying in Buffalo isn't very strong.
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Notice how 90% of the posters who spew this nonsense on a daily basis have about 100 posts to their credit? Newbs. One preseason half does not erase the fact that EJ, by almost all accounts, has been outplaying Tuel all training camp. It's as if EJ didn't play a very good game himself on Sunday. I don't get it.
I have about the same number of posts as you so let me say it:
Tuel should be the st.....................
I just can't do it. I really can't. At least not yet.
I'm going to go out on a limb here and make the big assumption that Marrone and Hackett know more about Tuel's abilities than the posters advocating for him. Most of us fans have seen him play one half of preseason NFL ball. Hell, I've seen Rob Johnson, Trent Edwards and J.P. Losman play good entire regular season games. That doesn't mean any of them deserve to be Buffalo Bills starters.
Until Marrone proves himself incompetent as a talent evaluator and head coach, I'll be content with his decision. If Tuel eventually proves to the coaching staff that he gives the team the best chance of winning, I won't care. I just want to win. One half of preseason ball against scrubs is nice but proves nothing.
UDFAs like Tuel and journeymen like Kolb have low success rates. Even 1st rounders like EJ have a fairly low success rate. I don't care which one beats the odds as long as one of them does. I think its great both rooks did well against the Colts. That may mean we have one good QB.
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Herm Edwards thinks EJ is ready for the starting job.
"All indications tell me right now - the way he played in that first preseason game - he should be the starter."
Herm was effusive in his praise of EJ.
http://espn.go.com/v...=espnapi_public
Does that make Kolb - and his NFL experience - expendable?
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When EJ was drafted, I really expected Kolb to be the starter on opening day even though I appreciated EJ's potential. Now, however, for all the obvious reasons, I think Kolb will under center against the Pats. It's still very early in preseason but EJ is developing nicely so far.
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This says a lot about the talent of our young QBs.
But what does it say about the coaching staff?
Two rookie QBs and numerous rookie receivers…
Okay, San Jose, you've mentioned this twice and nobody seems to be biting so I will. You are right. To play two rookies in the first preseason game and have them combine for 35-44 and 319 yards is impressive. It's only preseason but that's partly the point, I think. Preseason games, especially inaugural preseason games, can be chaotic and especially difficult for rookies. Marrone, Hackett, et al did a really nice jobs preparing these kids.
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I agree that the Bills will not go into the season with two rookie QBs on the roster and no one else.
But that doesn't mean Kolb doesn't get cut. As we get closer and closer to the regular season, we'll see known QBs become unemployed. If Kolb continues to struggle, he could get cut in favor of another experienced QB.
I don't think this is likely because Kolb knows Bills offense and Hackett has a particularly philosophy and scheme he's trying to implement. He may rather stick with the guy who understands his system than try to break in someone new just weeks before the opener (even if this guy is destined to be a back up).
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Wow, I almost feel guilty starting a thread about a B/R article. My apologies. Never again. I just thought the B/R article was a good conversation starter, not substantive, insightful journalism.
My own QB thoughts are these... 1st round QBs have maybe a 40%or 50% success rate. FA retreads like Kolb and Jackson have a lower yet success rate. UDFA's like Tuel very rarely become franchise quarterbacks. Given the odds, the failure of any of these guys can't be counted as a disappointment.
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The Bleacher Report lists Kevin Kolb as one of the biggest training camp disappointments so far this year.
When the Bills signed Kolb, he was both a hedge against the Bills being unable to land a talented quarterback in the draft and a veteran insurance policy in case they did. When the Bills drafted EJ Manuel, perhaps the least polished of the top quarterback prospects this season, it looked like the starting job was Kolb's to lose.
In camp, though, Kolb has struggled to play like the veteran he is. According to Joe Buscaglia of WGR 550, Kolb struggled with blitz recognition and pickup in the fourth day of camp—exactly the kind of thing a veteran should be able to do better than a rookie.
bleacherreport.com/articles/1732406-the-biggest-nfl-training-camp-disappointments-so-far/page/6
The point might be moot, however, as Peter King lists EJ as one the best training camp surprises so far (or however he phrased it).
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Robert Woods
Yep... and if I had to pick a group I most wanted to watch it would be the receiving corps. Lot of intriguing new faces.
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I wanted to keep TJax, too. We only have one experienced QB on the roster and he's so injury prone, it's hard to guess how long he'll be able to suit up. We might end up playing games with a rookie starter and a rookie backup talking things over with him on the sideline.
Then again, Jackson's departure means more reps for EJ (and Tuel) and EJ seems to be doing well with his reps.
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Fitz was a below average QB who looked good after the Edwards'Losman debacle. I would have liked to see Gaileys offense work with a above average QB.
And an above average receiving corps.
But the ship named Gailey has sailed away and I'm glad. Whatever strengths he had as an OC were ruined by his weakness as a Head Coach. He failed to find a good DC and failed to build a winning culture. But, yeah, as the acting OC he did pretty well with the limited talent he had to work with.
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We sucked last year. We have a new Head Coach who is not a proven commodity. Even when he was a good OC with the Saints, he was working under an offensive mastermind. Our DC is also unproven for similar reasons. We haven't named a starting QB yet but either choice is unproven in the NFL. I understand why the preseason power polls rank us near the bottom.
But let's dream... What if Pettine is as great as his resume (Top Five in the NFL every year as a DC)? What if Marrone turns out to be the winner his supporters say he will be? What if Hackett, his protege, turns out to be an offensive wunderkind? What if EJ lives up to his potential and our high hopes?
So, while I get the polls, I find more reason to hope this year than I have in a looong time. Marrone, Pettine, Hackett, and EJ all might be a lot better than the guys we had in those key positions last year.
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FJ is a top-ten BACKUP running back. The idea that he, at 32 years old and coming off of a mediocre season, is a top ten back is laughable.
A few players who are far better than FJ:
1) Adrian Peterson
2) Jamaal Charles
3)C.J. Spiller
4) Chris Johnson
5) Marshawn Lynch
6) Arian Foster
7) Ray Rice
8)Doug Martin
9) Alfred Morris
10)Stevan Ridley
11) Frank Gore
12)Matt Forte
13) Lesean McCoy
Fred will likely be an asset this year, but, I think, many other backups will surpass him. Gio Bernard and some of the other rookies coming in this year will be better, for one, not to mention many of the very good backups like Bryce Brown and Bernard Pierce.
Only a Bills fan would claim that Fred Jackson is currently a top ten back. He was an absolute stud in 2011, but, last year, fumbled, couldn't get many first downs, couldn't catch many passes well, and had a low Y.P.C.; it is ridiculous to claim that he is a top-ten back.
Looking at that list, I have to agree that Fred is a Top Ten RB - IF he returns to his previous form and doesn't perform like last year. I'm hoping he does.
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Didn't we say the same when we let Edwards go!!
Sadly, yes we did.
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I don't buy it. Why? Our rushing stats. We were good in rushing, CJ if he had more carries would have been one of the leagues top 5 RB's. Look Glenn is a Guard, put him at guard, put someone with some speed at LT and lets address LT this offseason. Too late to worry about it now.
CJ averaged 6.0 yards per carry last season but 3.6 yards came after contact. That was second best in the league, behind only AP. So was our line good? Or did CJ make them look good? The year before, Freddy also a great YAC metric and also made the line look good.
The stats tell an ambivalent story. Fitz got rid of the ball very quickly and therefore didn't get sacked a lot. CJ got lots of yards after contact. And, as kobe888 points out, we didn't always see a lot of push in short yardage situation. While I'm optimistic that Marrone will find a way to move the ball, I think the folks with concerns about the line - especially after Levitre's departure - have a rational argument.
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And yet Tom Brady had the shortest "Time to Throw" in the entire NFL (Peyton Manning was 3rd)...
And Fitz had the 4th (tied) fastest time to throw, holding on to the ball less than a 1/10th of a second more than Brady. In other words, the data supports the argument that our line didn't have to hold their blocks for very long on passing plays.
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I think Gailey designed his dink and dunk offense to hide both Fitz's and the O Line's deficiencies. Fitz couldn't throw deep and the line - a couple years ago - couldn't keep defenders out of the pocket for very long. It made sense to run short, quick routes.
I think the O Line was matured since then. And hopefully it will mature some more with a Head Coach who was a former lineman and line coach.
Some of the statistics indicate we had an exceptionally good line last year. But Spiller can do a lot with a very small hole. Freddy was hobbled last year but used to be among the league leaders in Yards After Contact. And Fitz rarely held onto the ball for very long so he didn't get sacked a lot. In other words, I think the QB and RBs helped make the line look good.
We'll see.
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I'd choose Seattle.
You must love rain.
How did I miss this?!?
I do love rain. To a point. Seattle passes that point, but this town & area is beautiful when it is sunny.
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A few things. You cannot do anything in Buffalo that you can do in Chicago. That's rediculous. Yes you may be able to generalize far enough to make the arguement but its fallicy.
easy examples- you can't take in a MLB game nor NBA. Can't shop at whole foods, cant eat at Morton's, can't have pea pod dilivery your groceries, QUALITY and quanity of clubs restaurants and music is giganticly difffernt. Direct flights to Europe, it goes on and on.
Yes you could boil all these down to a grocery store, a restaurant and entertainment.... Well then in that case Belmont or Wellsville can match up to Chicago too.
I always chuckle when buffalonians try and contrast the little city / big town with any real metropolis.
But to the more salient point, like all people athletes have different preferences too, and many might prefer a tiny city or lots of nearby rural area to a large city and so on. I think perhaps the majority would live in the Alaska if it meant playing a game and making millions for a living.
Also what the he!! is a bombfire? A fire started with a bomb? Sound fun.... But illegal in Erie county right?
I have to agree. Having lived in or near Buffalo, St.Louis, Atlanta, Indianapolis, San Francisco and now Seattle - as well as spending time in other metro areas - clearly Buffalo doesn't have the same quantity or quality of cultural offerings of the bigger cities. When I say "cultural offerings," I mean everything from nightclubs to museums, from concerts to restaurants. And then there's the weather.
Certain types of personalities are going to rationally prefer the bigger cities and cities with more temperate climates. I don't mean to offend anyone but there are reasons cities like Miami and San Francisco, for example, attract more tourists than Buffalo.
But I also agree with some other points made on the board... some players will like Buffalo... some players will happily play where ever the paycheck is the biggest... some players really want to play for a winning team.... Every player has his own set of priorities and preferences. In the end, I don't think the Bills will have a huge disadvantage signing FAs if Whaley & Overdorf manage the cap well and Marrone starts getting some wins.
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I tend to agree with Hackett, but, frankly, I think people don't give enough credence to Chan's view that Spiller would be more effective with fewer carries. I guess we'll see who's right.
It will be interesting to find out. Maybe CJ won't average 6 YPC if he gets 20 carries per game. But Hackett's right, we should find out. Let's see what CJ can do with more touches.
On the other hand, I don't want to neglect Freddy.
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If Tuel is the one who actually becomes the Bills' franchise QB, so be it. But it's still early and we'll see how they fare against other teams' 1st stringers.
Yeah. I don't care if it's Kolb, Tuel or EJ. If any of these guys turns out to be as good as Jim Kelly - or even close - and lead us to the playoffs, I'll be in celebration mode.
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I get what he's saying to some degree, but if you have a winning team players will come.
The 90's Bills had no trouble luring players in. Back then the Patriots were so terrible that nobody wanted anything to do with them.
Boston was still Boston. Buffalo was still Buffalo. Most players want to make money and win, and everything else is a distant third.
If you have millions of dollars you can find fun things to occupy your time anywhere.
I agree most players probably think like this.
For the partying exceptions, we aren't going to be in the running. Some guys like the South Beach scene or the L.A. vibe or whatever. I hate to say it, but Buffalo doesn't have as much to offer the young rich bachelor as most other NFL cities.
But if Whaley and Marrone return the Bills to the playoffs - and manage the cap intelligently - we'll be able to successfully entice good FAs.
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Astro, thanks from Seattle!!!
When I heard EJ's name called on draft day, I figured he'd hold the clipboard for at least half the season. But your reports, and other sources (e.g. Peter King), make me feel he'll be lining up under center on opening day.
Bills sign LB Westerman?
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Not to be cynical, but maybe Pettine brought him in to help instill his scheme & philosophy with the other LBs, knowing Westerman has the knowledge - but not the skills - to play this defense. In the end, Westerman gets cut.