hondo in seattle

All true. But these are wrong stats (says the devil's advocate). The stats that matter most are big plays and turnovers. And the Bills lead the NFL.

Here's a curious thing... Marrone learned how to run an offense from Sean Payton. Payton is far better coordinating a passing game than a running game. Marrone - along with this protege, Hackett - seem likewise better at coordinating a passing game than a running game. That was obscured last year by all the turmoil at the QB position. But seems clear this past few games.

Like most Bills fans, I’m not a huge fan of Nate Hackett’s performance thus far. But let me play devil’s advocate today and assert this: Hackett is a good at coordinating a passing attack and competent-but-hamstrung at coordinating a running game. Passing. In Kyle Orton’s best year as a starter, he notched a 87.5 QB Rating. His rating under Hackett so far is 104.0. In three years with Chicago, Orton passed for 161.2 yards per game. In his time with Denver, he average 248.1 yards per game. With the Bills so far, he’s averaging 282.0 yards per game. Under Hackett’s tutelage and in Hackett’s system, Orton is enjoying the very best year of his career. Rushing. The Bills are averaging just 98.9 ypg this season and fans want to see more power sweeps, counters, and so on - not to mention screens. But many of these plays require talented, agile OGs which the Bills lack. 3.8 ypc and 99 ypg is acceptable, if not brilliant, performance for an OC working with this interior line. Big Plays. Brian Billick, former SB winning coach, has written a couple articles over the years about the importance of the “Toxic Differential.” He explains: It has long been a proven adage that if you have a plus-2 turnover advantage on your opponent, you will win the game 80 percent of the time. If you have a plus-2 explosive-play advantage, it equally leads to winning about 80 percent of the time. If you have both of those, you win close to 95 percent of the time. http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000419687/article/toxic-differential-watch-out-for-bills-texans-in-the-second-half Under Hackett, the Bills offense is producing a lot of big plays (35 explosive plays by Billick’s count) while not turning the ball over a lot. Combined with the ball-hawking skills of our defense, the Bills have the NFL’s best Toxic Differential. Interestingly, Seattle led the NFL last year. I don’t believe the Bills lead the Toxic Differential rankings in the highly competitive NFL by accident. Understanding the importance of the Toxic Differential, Hackett’s scheming and play-calling are designed to produce big plays for the Bills while limiting turnovers. In sum, given the hand he’s been dealt, Hackett is doing an admirable job as an OC.

That is interesting. He says the Toxic Differential is predictive and then predicts that the team with the best Toxic Differential in NFL won't even make the playoffs.

Some guys are late bloomers. I hope this isn't just some temporary thing with Orton and he can sustain this level of play for a long time, if not improve upon it. I also hope the EJ eventually blooms and becomes Orton's capable successor some day.

Great idea! I'm in.

I really doubt a Super Bowl winning coach, even an unemployed one, is quite as unintelligent as you seem to think. I think what Billick is arguing is that a team with a good Toxic Differential is likely to beat a team with a bad Toxic Differential. The bigger the differential, the more probable the result. So Toxic Differential is predictive. There are so many metrics in football, football coaches have long been trying to find out which ones matter most. While some posters on this board love QBR and PFF ratings, I doubt if these are used much by coaches. According to Billick, and he would know, coaches do look at turnovers and big plays because they are meaningful - more meaningful than many other stats. You make an interesting point about turnovers because they have a rather random nature. You can't control them but as a coach you can influence turnover numbers in a number of ways. Given their importance, you need to.

While I'm a proud member of the Hacketts Critics Club, I've been wondering about this all year. What I want to see as a fan is an offense that can move the ball - by ground or air - consistently all game long. Think early 90s Bills. We obviously don't have the talent for that yet. But maybe what Hackett is going for instead is an offense that produces big plays and doesn't turn the ball over. I've also been a sometime critic of Jim Schwartz. I'd like to see more blitzes from him and more creative defenses, a la Rex Ryan or Mike Pettine. What he gives instead is a no frills Steady Eddy D. I doubt if it's coincidental that the Bills excel at the Toxic Differential. Billick says the Toxic Differential is widely used because it has high predictive success so I'm sure Marrone et al. use some version of it. In highly competitive environments, people don't excel by accident. They excel because they have a plan.

Nice find! We all suspected that watching Kyle would be a good learning experience for EJ. It's good to get confirmation. EJ seems to be studying Kyle closely - not just Kyle the player, but Kyle the leader. Kyle's own evolution as a QB makes me hopeful for the current Bills with Orton under center but also for the future Bills with EJ under center. "What has happened to EJ, some of what Geno Smith is going through, it happened to me early in my career... There is always a lot of stuff you could worry about. If you let yourself do that, that is when you get into trouble... I'm throwing the ball better now than I ever have in my life. I'm thinking in games as well as I ever have.''

Nice post! Orton's sacks are worrisome. I'm not sure how much I agree with Papazoid that Orton goes down like a feather and doesn't see the sacks coming. He's certainly not the most elusive QB ever. Nonetheless, he seems willing to stand there waiting for a guy to come open even as the pocket collapses around him. This can be a good thing and a bad thing. I'm guessing his patience has resulted in more yards in completions than it's lost in additional sacks. Obviously, if we had better protection from our OL, we'd have fewer sacks, even with a comparatively immobile QB. We'd probably also fewer sacks if we had a running game, and a screen game.

Maybe my expectation are low because the announcers don't typically bother me. I know they're not going to know as much about the Bills as we do. I just hope the play-by-play guy calls the action somewhat fluently and the color guy provides me a bit of new information about the other team.

Good post. If you look at Orton's stats over the years, although there are some ups-and-downs, it's clear that he got better with time. His last year starting for Chicago was far better than his first. His stats with Denver were far better than his stats with Chicago. In limited action, his stats in Dallas were better yet. http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/O/OrtoKy00.htm I hope all this suggests two things: (1) Orton's good start with the Bills is not an aberration. He'll continue to perform well with us. Hopefully, he gets even better as he masters Hackett's offense. (2) EJ might still turn into a good starter someday.

I was panicked about our QB situation this preseason. EJ didn't look ready. And we didn't have anyone else worth mentioning. Going back in time a little farther, I was hoping we'd draft another QB this year. I'll admit I'm feeling pretty good now with Orton as the starter and EJ as the developmental project.

I was surprised when we extended Fitz. At the time, I was amazed how Gailey found a way to work around Fitz's weaknesses and capitalize on his strengths. But I wondered if it would last or if NFL defenses would catch up to us. Now we know. Orton is a different case. I don't think Hackett is making Orton look good so much as Orton is making Hackett look competent. It's only been four games, but I would consider extending Kyle if he continues to play at this level. Heck, he's 7th in the NFL in QB passer ratings right now. If he continues at that level, why wouldn't you extend him???

Now that you've admonished people, I'm sure they'll all behave differently now.

It didn't look like the Bills were ready for Vick to be under center. Contain broke down often. I think the Jets were the first team to break 100 yards rushing against the Bills and Vick lead the way with about 70.

Point taken. Curious to see Henderson with the highest overall grade.

I'm no expert on grading linemen, but isn't allowing pressure on 12% of pass plays a bad thing? If all five OL gave up pressure 12% of the time (assuming no overlap for the sake of argument), Orton would have guys on him 60% of the time.

If we go 3-1 over the next four games as you and others predict, we'll be 8-4. Do you think maybe the players (and coaches) then start to take it up a notch because they can smell the preseason? Sometimes teams catch a fire and start to roll. If we can go 3-1 and then 2-2, this would be a very fun season.

I'll play devil's advocate. I spent the better part of a year in Saudi Arabia. While that doesn't make me an expert, it does mean I know more about the place than someone who has never been there. Bradshaw played for 14 seasons, including 4 SB wins. He's covered the NFL for an additional 30 years. I don't know if this makes him an "expert," but he certainly knows more about football than the average fan.

Huh? How can any team with a 1-6 record and a QB who seems color blind at times be confident of any game?

I've predicted a Bills win every game this year. So I'm 4-3 which, I guess, is slightly better than random luck! I also predicted the Bills would have a poor OL this year. Sadly, that prediction seems pretty accurate thus far.

It's curious that two teams with such different W-L records have such similar production. Rank, Offense (Yards Gained) Bills 22 Jets 26 Rank, Defense (Yards Allowed) Jets 8 Bills 10 The Bills score about 19.3 points a game while the Jets give up about 26.4 points per game. Splitting the difference, the Bills should score about 23. The Jets score about 17.3 points per game while the Bills allow about 20.3 points per game. The Jets should therefore score about 19. Given the Jets are the home team (about a 3 point advantage), this game's more-or-less a toss up.

I think the problems are both physical and mental. Unfortunately, the physical part can't be fixed till the offseason. Hopefully Whaley signs some OL FAs and/or finds some studs in the draft. The mental part worries me. Our HC is an ex NFL lineman. Yet he, Hackett and Pat Morris together can't eliminate the mental mistakes?

I love the optimism man but was a competent QB really the one thing we were lacking? Cuz I thought we were also lacking... * consistent play from our defensive secondary. * even average play from our interior offensive line. * good coaching from our OC. * healthy running backs. But if we do indeed make it to 5-3 at the halfway mark, I'll start thinking playoffs with you.