hondo in seattle

What can we expect from Kyle Orton? I thought it might be interesting to look at his productivity with Denver. He was still young and immature when starting for Chicago and the Bears didn't give him enough weapons to work with. So on to the Mile High city... In Orton's two years as Denver's starter, he averaged 256 yards per game. Let's assume Orton hasn't gotten worse since then - he may have gotten better. Let's also assume Hackett is a competent OC who can design a competent passing attack and the Bills wideouts and O Line are as more-or-less proficient as the Broncos of 2009-2010. It's a lot of assumptions, I know, but I'm going to say Orton is capable of passing for 256 yards per game as a Bill. Last year our rushing attack chipped in 144 yards per game. Let's assume they have the ability to repeat that performance especially if we have a QB that can challenge and stretch defenses. The Bills would then be rolling up 400 yards per game! My assumptions aren't overly ambitious, I don't think. I'm only expecting the Bills backs to do what they've done and Kyle to do what he's done. Even if 400 yards per game is exaggerated, I do believe a Kyle led offense can produce more than 320 yards per game which is what we're averaging now.

My apologies. This is entirely and invariably true.

Good response. Personnel evaluation is an inexact science. GMs make bad picks and trades all the time. Kiper and McShay have been notoriously wrong on many, many guys. The average sportswriter is wrong even more often. It's all about probabilities. Professional scouting staffs will be right far more often than Average Joe. (Unless, of course,that scouting staff is run by Matt Millen but that was only because Matt was the Average Joe). Probably everyone on this board can think of a time they were right about a prospect and the Bills were wrong. But even a broken clock is right twice a day. It's good for our egos to think we were smarter than the FO but in fact we don't know a fraction of what they know. I wouldn't want Nix or Whaley making picks based on what they read in some article. I would hope their scouts did far more film study and conducted many more interviews than any sportswriter. And for all the time and money the Bills put into due diligence, they're wrong sometimes. My hope is that Whaley will be wrong less often than 31 other GMs.

My dream goes like this... Orton proves to be a good game manager and the Bills win (barely) the AFCE. Next year, EJ's a new man - a strong, confident leader and a decisive, accurate passer. He's become so much better than Orton that he wins the starting job and the Bills cruise to the playoffs.

Yeah, that's another worry. It would be great if the OL could open holes for the backs so we didn't have to pass that often in the first place. And then kept Orton clean when we did pass. Btw, thanks QC for the video. The Orton haters were making me doubt my recollection of him as a QB. But the vid you found bolstered my confidence in Kyle and makes me think we could possibly beat the Lions. A win would really boost the morale of the team and rally them around their new QB. Not to mention keep us in 1st place in the wide open AFCE.

Clearly if EJ hired a mental conditioning coach, he must worry there's something wrong with the mental aspect of his game - whether you call it the yips or something else. Anyone watching the last game could see it in EJ's eyes, facial expression, and overall demeanor. He was down on himself and it effected his play. Perfectionism is great. Nonetheless, QBs need to have short memories, as they say. Or as Whaley says, just go play football and not try to be perfect on every play and certainly not beat yourself up when you fall short.

Really? Orton is no P. Manning or Drew Brees. He's a competent, not exceptional, starter. But if EJ played like this the past two weeks we'd be 4-0.

26CornerBlitz, thanks for posting. CC had an interesting POV: "In Buffalo, they have no choice." "Kyle Orton has a real feel for the game." "Reads defenses well" "Classic delivery" "If I had to go all my chips to the table this year... I think I agree with Kyle Orton."

Interesting idea. Peter King just wrote that EJ is a perfectionist and that Whaley has had to tell him to "just play football." There have been reports, too, of EJ hiring a mental coach. The yips are a mental problem. It fits. Yolo, you might be onto something.

There were a few times this season where EJ threw his WRs into big hits. Football is a sport for warriors. The lily-livered shouldn't don a uniform and run onto the field of play. Then again, QBs shouldn't get their wideouts needlessly killed.

My reaction is contradictory. On the one hand, I appreciate hearing what players really think - especially when their thoughts create hope for better outcomes. On the other hand, I don't think players should publicly criticize teammates. Marrone says the change should be good for EJ. Maybe watching the veteran Orton conduct business will be help EJ better understand what's expected of a QB. And maybe the work he does with the mental coach he supposedly hire will also help.

Orton is not very mobile and he doesn't throw the best long pass. So he may get sacked more than EJ and he won't stretch the field. But as an experienced guy I would expect him to find open receivers more proficiently - and actually complete those passes. Eventually his presence could lead to a more sophisticated offense. I'm not sure I'd expect that right away.

This is basically correct. Passer efficiency rating rewards guys who go 10 for 15 for 120 yards. You won't win many games like that. QBs need to be able to put up 300 yard games from time to time. Some QBs develop more quickly than others. I hope EJ becomes great some day. But - so far - on his best days he was a capable game manager. In his young career, he never lit up a defense.

I guess the read-option goes out the window.

Yep. And by publicly stating this, Marrone is putting all the responsibility for the decision on his shoulders - where it belongs as HC.

Is anyone else old enough to remember when Tom Landry used to alternate between Craig Morton and Roger Staubach? Landry went to the Super Bowl with both those QBs. There's no coaching rule that says you have to stay with the same QB forever. Yep, fans and players both like continuity under center. But it's not the right answer for every circumstance. I won't say Marrone is a great coach - that remains to be seen. But this is the right move at the right time. EJ seems to be regressing while Orton has been progressing with his understanding of the offense.

How close are you to EJ? Personally, I'm not convinced that this isn't the best thing for Manuel. Besides throwing poorly in Houston, EJ looked downright hangdog and it appears some of the players were losing faith in him. I like EJ but have to concede that Orton probably gives us the better chance of winning right now. But I also wonder if EJ might also benefit.

I think that EJ hasn't played poorly for a 'rookie' overall. But yesterday he looked lost. It wasn't just that he was inaccurate, the expression on his face seemed to say he didn't expect to win. Sitting on the bench watching a more experience QB play might just be the best thing for EJ. In the old days, rookie QBs always learned by warming up the pine and carrying the clipboard. Maybe EJ will benefit from some old fashioned pressure-free learning. Outside the Bills organization, who knows how Orton has looked in practice. I'm assuming he's been here long enough now to learn the offense. And I'm assuming the coaches have seen that he's beginning to run the offense better than EJ and that's why he's starting. What I've seen of Orton in the past, he's a better QB than EJ is right now. Let's hope EJ continues to learn and earns the job back someday because he's become so much better.

Congrats on finding a diamond in a pile of crap. It was good to watch though. Late in the game, Houston had a lead and just wanted to run out the clock. But they had to pass because they were going to go 3-and-out if they tried to run it successively. Our run D made the game winnable late in the 4th quarter. As bad as Hackett called plays, as bad as EJ was throwing, we still had a change to win the game until late in the 4th quarter because of the defense, particularly the run D.

This is dead on. EJ was horrible yesterday. As much as I like EJ and have defended him, I can't criticize the decision to bench him. But Hackett's play-calling was downright bizarre. We were never out of the game. Our defense, particularly our run D, was playing well. We had two good backs who flashed some ability to run against the Texans while EJ was completing less than half his passes. All that ought to result in a lot of run calls. Instead Hackett kept throwing the ball. It's very hard to understand or justify.

I've been a EJ supporter - at least a cautiously optimistic one - all along. But he was flat our horrible yesterday. If you had to blame one player for Texans the loss, it would have to be him, hands down. I was actually thinking of kayaking next weekend or something less painful than watching the Bills. But, with Orton under center, I'll be joining my fellow Bills Backers in Seattle after all. Orton's now had enough time now to learn the offense and will give us a better chance to win. Hopefully EJ learns while riding the pine, a la Aaron Rodgers.

Most of the power polls have Houston rated low because of the low quality of their wins. Nonetheless, if the Bills win I think a lot of average-joe fans, not to mention the media, will begin to take notice the Bills are 3-1. Going 3-1 in any quarter of a NFL season is an accomplishment. Even if it's just a fumble or missed FB better than .500. The Texans aren't talentless. I expect a close game in Houston. But as a homer I'm 2-1 picking the Bills to win so I'm staying with them and hoping for the best.

Obviously, every GM takes input. Obviously not all of Whaley's input was acted upon. If Whaley loved all of Nix's decisions, why was he so quick to change to folks at the top of the personnel department? Do you have inside information so that you can tell us when Whaley agreed with Nix and when he dissented? I'm personally not privy to that stuff so I give Whaley a pass on Nix's tenure. And, yep, cutting TJax and signing Williams were mistakes. Then again, trading Shep for Jerry Hughes and drafting Alonso were both very good moves. So far, early in his career, Whaley's had some hits and misses - I'm sure we both could enumerate more of each. But, all-in-all, I think the roster is getting better and I'd like to see what Whaley will do with more time. BTW, calling me "clueless" doesn't add to your argument. In fact, resorting to ad hominem attacks is usually a tactic employed by people either short on facts or short on logic. There's an old saying, "When a pickpocket walks down the street, all he sees is pockets." Likewise, when a football critic observes a team, all he sees are things to criticize. Since Whaley has made both good and bad decisions, like most rookie GMs, I'd like to see what he does with more time. I don't think changing the FO and coaching staff every couple years makes Buffalo a desirable destination.

Geno is fun to watch. He throws these beautiful tight spirals with lots of zip that often seemed directed at the other team. And clownish Rex has a winning NFL record while serious Marrone has a losing record thus far. But his antics seem to be wearing thin in New York. I'll keep EJ and Dougie.

Nix was his own man and made his own decisions. And Whaley isn't simply carrying on Nix's plan and vision. As soon as Whaley took over, he shook the personnel department up. He hired an outsider - Jim Monos - to be the Director of Player Personnel. He brought in another outsider - Kelvin Fisher - to run college scouting. He also, I believe, replaced one of the regional scouts. It should be clear Whaley isn't just a Nix clone. So I'm not judging Whaley on Nix's tenure - only his own. And that tenure has only lasted 1.3 years so far. There's not a lot of evidence on which to base an opinion. Yeah, that was questionable!